2024 Offseason News Thread

[ArmyBengal]

Did anyone else see Newton’s pro day attendance ?? A lot of scouts and coaches on hand for that one.

Well, except the Bengals sent no one…

[HoosierCat]

First round DT has always been a hard sell in the FO, and the last time they said yes they got the Big Daddy drama.

They're going to a wide receiver, aren't they? You can just feel it coming, like the ripple in the atmosphere ahead of the meteor...

[AMPHAR]

Bengals have selected 67 players in the first round all time.   Any decent stats person will tell that is a far cry from a decent sample size to make predictive conclusions.   

WR - 9 times  (3 all time great Bengals) J'mar, AJ, Curtis 

OT - 8 times  (2 all time greats) Munoz, and Willie

DT/NT - 4 times ( just solid players)

DE - 11 ( a lot of solid players)

DB - 8 (surprisingly some solid players) J. Joe, Hall, Darly Williams,

C/G - 5 times Zietler and blah.  Blair Bush was good for a couple years.  Remington played a while but was never up to hype

LB - 9 times (ugly list, Takeo Spikes and Brian Simmons save the group)

QB - 6 time (ugly except Burrow and I guess Palmer.

RB - 4 times (ugly)

TE - 3 times (ugly) save Eifert's one awesome year

 

Downtown Eddie Brown and Tim McGee - 2nd tier probably made a couple pro bowls.

 

[ArmyBengal]

Whatever the difference is between what they should and will do is going to be predicated on what happens between picks 1-17 obviously.  So while I sit here today and think they should take an OT at #18 and get them a season of working and learning, there are things that play into that.

It has been mentioned before and I agree that I don't see them taking a lower ranked OT if all the others have been taken.  However, what we think is the 4th or 5th best OT, probably will look different in the Bengals war room.  Maybe they have Mims ranked 3rd best OT and he's there, which means they probably pull the trigger, regardless of if I think he's the 6th best OT.

So if all the Bengals ranked OT's are gone, I don't see them reaching and I think there's at least a decent chance of that happening when looking at the needs of the teams picking ahead of us.  The Giants, Chargers, Saints, Titans, Jets could all go o-line picking ahead of us.

If that happens, which way do they go?  If all those QB's and OT's go off the board, that's probably going to push a player down to them they were not expecting.  Heck that seems to happen every year and the past two point to that with both Dax Hill and Myles Murphy being there when the Bengals pick.

Again, I think OT and DT make sense, but won't say any of them NEED to be the pick at #18.  I recently brought up WR and the more I think about what might happen, the more it makes sense to me for all the reasons I already gave.  The biggest of those would be getting another true #1 they could lock into a rookie deal for the next 5 years.  That's exactly what the WR room is going to need after Chase gets paid, so I wouldn't be shocked or upset in the least.

I think there will be both OT's and DT's that could come in and get snaps this season, while needing a year to learn the system, get bigger, stronger, heal, or whatever that will be available in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.  There will be WR's available later as well, so that can really throw things up in the air at #18 as well. 

Can't wait to see...  ONE WEEK FROM TODAY !!!

[HoosierCat]

25 minutes ago, ArmyBengal said:

Whatever the difference is between what they should and will do is going to be predicated on what happens between picks 1-17 obviously.  So while I sit here today and think they should take an OT at #18 and get them a season of working and learning, there are things that play into that.

Yeah, I was trying to game that out yesterday during some downtime at work. Just looking at various mocks and rankings, it seems like we can expect all of the following to be gone before the Bengals pick.

QB: (4) Williams, McCarthy, Maye, Daniels

WR: (3) Harrison Jr., Nabers, Odunze

OT: (2) Alt, Fashanu

TE: (1) Bowers

DE: (1) Turner

CB: (2) Arnold, Mitchell

That’s 13 spots, so the question is, who are the four other guys that go before we get to 18?

Latu and/or Verse? Three DEs have gone in the top 17 picks in both of the last two drafts, and both these guys are legit first-round prospects.

Fuaga, Latham and Fautanu? Pete Schrager’s mock Tuesday at nfl.com had the nightmare scenario for Bengals fans, with Fuaga, Latham and Fautanu going 14, 15 and 16.

Murphy/Newton? I can see both there at 18, but to echo Amphar, do all the teams in front of the Bengals pass on the top DT prospect in favor of the No. 4 or 5 OT prospect?

Cooper DeJean? He’s gotten dinged in the rankings due to injury but some analysts like him more than Mitchell, so maybe he (or Mitchell) are still there.

Thomas (or insert WR you like better here)? Even worse than OT you are down to the No. 4 WR by pick 14, so I can see whoever that guy is still there at 18.

And then there are the interior OL guys like Powers-Johnson. They still pop up above 18 here and there.

I have no answers, only guesses, and no one cares about those. All I know is that picks 14-17 are going to be nailbiters.

[ArmyBengal]

I went to take a look, because I was just curious, at which of the OT's thought to go in the 1st and 2nd round had the best athletic scores.  It reminded me of a Goodberry video (I think) stating that a Bengals issue in drafting OT's is that they haven't drafted guys who scored well athletically.  I looked and the average Bengals OT RAS score is 6.34.

Anyway, as expected, you find Joe Alt as the #1 OT from an athletic perspective at a massive 9.93.

The rest kind of surprised me, but I cannot say with any certainty I know what the variations between high and low are.

Tyler Guyton 9.73
Patrick Paul 9.67
Taliese Fuaga 9.63
Troy Fautanu 9.62
Amarius Mims 9.59
Olumuyiwa Fashanu 9.58
Kingsley Suamataia 9.40
Jordan Morgan 9.25
JC Latham (Did not test)

What does all that mean and how does it translate?  Your guess is as good as mine, but there will probably be a talented OT available in the 2nd round.

[ArmyBengal]

This is why, JUST ONCE, I would like to be a fly on the wall of the Bengals draft room.
I would love to have information on how and where they ranked guys.

I said before, just because I think player X is the 5th best at his position, the Bengals probably see him differently.
That difference is why we will or won't see player X get drafted.

For example, I saw many outlets widely believe Myles Murphy was a top 10 talent last year heading into the draft.  He was rated near the top of the DE class and many times #1.  In looking at the 5 DE's that went in the first round last year, I would have rated him #1 as well.  No chance he falls to the Bengals, sitting all the way down at #28.  Then it happened, 27 teams, three of them that took a DE, passed on Murphy.

WHY?  To my point, being the fly on the wall would help, but I think it's simply that the Bengals rated him far higher than those teams that even took a DE and when he fell, it was a no brainer for them, even though many saw a TE or OT being taken there.
 

[ArmyBengal]

Here's another thought to ponder.

Even if (that's a no) the Bengals and I happened to rank players exactly the same, just because I wouldn't take the 6th rated OT over the 3rd rated WR (or name your position) doesn't mean the Bengals won't as well.  Maybe they value one position more than another (I think they do) or maybe this year they place a higher priority on need versus value.  I think those things change from one season to the next to a degree.

[AMPHAR]

The way the talking heads were talking last night Latu is the best defender, period.   That came out of no where but multiple guys were echoing it so there's some smoke there.     As far as mocks go that's a major upset because Turner has been the first DE to go for a LONG time.

Then someone added on they think Verse is the higher rated DE over Turner.  

Is any of this true?  Who knows?  But it would be kinda weird to only have 1 DL taken in the first 17 picks.

 

[ArmyBengal]

That's kind of my thought with all this though. 
Who really knows and whatever your thoughts are, the Bengals probably see it differently.
I personally like Latu a lot.  He's 6'4, 260, has elite athleticism and has been a top producer for the past two seasons.
Do I like him so much that in back to back seasons we take DE in the first round? NO, but that's me.
There is certainly the case of, can you really have enough pass rushers?  A lot of 6'2 DE's in this draft too.
Seems smallish and not what the Bengals typically look for.

[ArmyBengal]

Here's another anomaly of position as well.  Offensive Guard.
Not really a position the Bengals look to take in the higher rounds and don't want to pay them either.
But WHAT IF, they take an OT in the first round, that can start off at OG his first season, like Whitworth did at LG?
If Fuaga was there at #18, I would fully expect him to be the pick and have him competing with Volson for the starting LG spot.  If whatshisname only stays for a single season at RT, then Fuaga transitions there the following year.  But MAYBE, Fuaga turns out to be an All Pro LG, they leave him there and address RT in next year's draft.  Maybe he doesn't beat our Volson and sits behind the new RT, getting only a small amount of reps.  So many variables to consider.

Trent Brown.  Sorry, forgot his name.  Not going back to edit.

[TJJackson]

With Trent Brown being injury prone and older, my expectations is that he will not last the entire 2024 season.  And he's gone after 2024.

Expect the best, but plan for the worst

So the plan should be for the OT - hopefully specifically a RIGHT tackle - they absolutely need to draft at 18 or 49 will be the starter at ORT by the end of 2024 at the latest

and of course, that player would then (optimally) be handed the starter spot at ORT in 2025, with the 1 year rental Trent Brown moving on

As such, I dont want this new OT working at OG, and most especially not at OLG

If all goes well, this player will be the backup (swing tackle) at both OLT and ORT, and the jumbo OL as well

I can see them drafting up to three OL this year.  In addition to the glaring need at ORT, they need a better backup C than No Knees Hill.  Second, the Smith and Carman experiments are over and done with, as far as I am concerned.  Third, we need depth and heirs apparent to Karras and Cappa

I wont destroy appliances or set any local stadiums on fire if the first pick is a pass rushing DT,  but if that is the case, 49 then becomes a pick that M U S T be an ORT

[COB]

I just gave Trent Brown a hard look, so now he’s injured for a couple weeks.  Offensive tackle in the first round please!

[HoosierCat]

2 hours ago, AMPHAR said:

The way the talking heads were talking last night Latu is the best defender, period.   That came out of no where but multiple guys were echoing it so there's some smoke there.     As far as mocks go that's a major upset because Turner has been the first DE to go for a LONG time.

Then someone added on they think Verse is the higher rated DE over Turner.  

Is any of this true?  Who knows?  But it would be kinda weird to only have 1 DL taken in the first 17 picks.

 

If you go back and look at mocks from late 23, Latu was going a lot higher than he is now. But as the top half of the drift got littered with more QBs and OTs he was one of the guys who fell. Same with Kool-Aid, he was the first or second corner off the board for a long time, now he’s bottom of the first.

[ArmyBengal]

I saw an article where ESPN has a draft predictor for 5 players that are the most likely picks at #18.

1. Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington - 13%
2. Byron Murphy, DT, Texas - 9.84%
3. JC Latham, OT, Alabama - 9.72%
4. Brian Burns, WR, LSU - 7.64%
5. Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama - 6.72%

So here's just something else to take some time discussing.  What say you about those players?

It's not that I don't like Fautanu, but he's strictly a LT and I would rather not draft a guy to play a position that he has literally never taken a snap at during his entire college career.

I would be good with Murphy.  Would definitely be a solid add to the DT rotation, which is needed.

In this grouping I think Latham would be my #1 pick and would be happy with this as well.

I really like Burns and think he's a #1 in the future, but he's #3 on this list.  Again, would not surprise me.

Arnold does next to nothing for me.  This is my least favorite position to target in the first round.
With CTB and DJ Turner likely locking down the starter roles, along with Hilton, Ivey and a probable move for Dax, this screams of another 1st round pick that will likely have little to no impact in his rookie year.  I'm really getting sick of that shit.

[HoosierCat]

Seems like they have a starting corner go down every year, so I doubt Arnold would be riding the bench. If he’s there, I would bet my bank balance he’s the pick (note my bank balance is like $12 so…). I wouldn’t be thrilled with the pick but I get it. Hard to pass up the value there.

Murphy or Latham would be my top two as well. I can make the case for either and would be happy either way.

Not into any WR unless there’s an unexpected fall by one of the top three.

A lot of analysts think Fautanu is a guard at the next level. Orlando-Fautanu-Karras-Cappa-Trent looks pretty good on paper to me. But do you take a guard at 18? I could see it depending on how things fall. I’d rather address it later and take a tackle who can step in when Trent inevitably gets dinged, but that may not be an option. But I could be okay with Fautanu.

 

[AMPHAR]

Eli Apple played a ton of quality snaps on a flyer type contract.   I could live with CB.  Always need guys that can run and cover.

[HoosierCat]

Bill Tobin, RIP

https://www.bengals.com/news/bill-tobin-cincinnati-bengals-player-personnel-executive-lions-general-manger-bears-colts

[ArmyBengal]

3 hours ago, HoosierCat said:

Seems like they have a starting corner go down every year, so I doubt Arnold would be riding the bench. If he’s there, I would bet my bank balance he’s the pick (note my bank balance is like $12 so…). I wouldn’t be thrilled with the pick but I get it. Hard to pass up the value there.

Murphy or Latham would be my top two as well. I can make the case for either and would be happy either way.

Not into any WR unless there’s an unexpected fall by one of the top three.

A lot of analysts think Fautanu is a guard at the next level. Orlando-Fautanu-Karras-Cappa-Trent looks pretty good on paper to me. But do you take a guard at 18? I could see it depending on how things fall. I’d rather address it later and take a tackle who can step in when Trent inevitably gets dinged, but that may not be an option. But I could be okay with Fautanu.

Yeah, not a knock on the player specifically, but the position.  When you have the depth we do at the corner position, spending a first rounder doesn't excite me very much at all.  I could live with it, but it would be my least liked selection.  Arnold is an above average player, so I could live with it, but again, wouldn't like it much.  If they want another CB to add to the mix, get one later.  Unless they think DJ Turner isn't going to improve.  I don't think they do.

Actually, I would be more than happy to have a new WR over CB in the first.

I don't have an issue with they want to improve the OG position, I just don't think that's what THEY think.
I think they like Volson and have no desire to move on from him with a first round OG selection.  Now, a new OT with position versatility, that could beat out Volson in their rookie season, before moving to RT?  Yep, I see that as an option they would be considering.  Again, not me, them.

[ArmyBengal]

1 hour ago, HoosierCat said:

Bill Tobin, RIP

https://www.bengals.com/news/bill-tobin-cincinnati-bengals-player-personnel-executive-lions-general-manger-bears-colts

Sad day.  Sorry for Duke and his family.

[ArmyBengal]

For anyone that follows WR rankings, I think Steve Smith is one of the best at the game personally.
He teams up with Lance Zierlein to go in depth about the players, but their insight to the position is tops.
If you have the hour 17 minutes to give, this is a great watch.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LDzLS0viRX4

Spoiler on the rankings below:

 

 

 

Nabers
Harrison
Odunze
Thomas
Worthy
Mitchell
Franklin
McConkey
Corley
Legette

Bonus: McCaffrey, Pearsall, and Burton
 

[COB]

I watched a lot of Ohio State.  Harrison is not one to really put it all on the line.  That’s all I can think of how to say it.  If everything goes right in a play, he’s great.  Do not expect him to go that extra bit or put himself in harm’s way.

[COB]

https://www.nflshop.com/cincinnati-bengals/mens-cincinnati-bengals-fanatics-branded-black-2024-nfl-draft-illustrated-t-shirt/t-14048004+p-79553426182401+z-8-1005780821

[COB]

Sorry about that post above, I was trying to post the bengals 2024 draft t shirt that’s for sale on nfl.com or wherever.  It’s pretty good, maybe a glimpse into the future for us in regards to our avatar or whatever we call the emblem.

[HoosierCat]

Yeah I’ve seen that. Not a big fan but it would be better than the B.