2022 NFL Draft

[membengal]

I'd swap Hill for Booth on my list, but otherwise generally agree. Well, probably would have Brisker and Pitre a level higher too.

 

Booth's lack of testing causes me some consternation. Especially in light of this from Goodberry a few weeks back...

Quote

Goodberry
@JoeGoodberry
·
Apr 3
Bengals picks that didn't test before the draft
21- J.Carman
20- M.Bailey, K.Kareem, A.Davis-Gaither
19- Rodney Anderson
18- Price
17- JJ Dielman
15- Ogbuehi
09- Chase Coffman
06- Ethan Kilmer, Jon Fanene
03- Elton Patterson, Kelley Washington
02- Marquand Manuel, Matt Schobel

 

[Stripes]

Fair. I struggle to get excited about any first round pick with significant injury flags. I love Booth the prospect, but that problem definitely slants me in Elam's direction.

[ArmyBengal]

Talk about nothing to talk about...

Not if it's not already next to impossible to grade the pick before the guy picked takes a snap, now they are grading the pick BEFORE the pick even happens.

I mean if the Bengals take DT, Bryan Bresee, Clemson in the 25-30 range in 2023, that shit is definitely getting a big "F" from me.
I don't care about his stats, that knee is going to be concerning.

[TJJackson]

Im pretty much going to be OK with any of 3TDT, outside corner, ORT, or coverage S at 31, albeit any of these must have good health history.  Best ability is availability.

Linderbaum needs some more mass, so Im not on the Shazor Linderbaum train

If a blue chipper falls close, I am in favor of trading up as we need quality over quantity at this stage

If it is safety, that tells me that the Bengals know with certainty that Bates will be gone after this year.  Sad, but better to get a year of grooming in now

anything else, including trading down, is gonna piss me off

[Stripes]

Obviously any pre-draft grade is meaningless with regard to predicting future states, but it gives an impression of how one feels about a pick (or a possible pick) in the moment. Sometimes we have good intuitions (e.g., I hated the John Ross pick), and sometimes we do not (e.g., I was iffy about Tee Higgins).

[Stripes]

My biggest hope is that the pick they make, whoever it might be, is selected with the 2022 season in mind. This team is in a Super Bowl window, and it may not last long. I don't care about 2023 or beyond. Do whatever is necessary to plug the holes on the current roster and upgrade the team's current prospects, and worry about what comes after that later. I don't want some first round pick riding the bench most of the time, and that will be a concern if any safety is the choice.

[ArmyBengal]

Just for perspective Linderbaum weighed in at 302 at his pro day. The average weight for the top 32 centers last year was 305.

Still not thinking he’s going to be there anyway, but I would be more concerned about his short arms then his weight.

That being said, I’m not concerned about his short arms.

[ArmyBengal]

If you want someone to come in and start this season, the options are limited.

Move Karras to LG and Linderbaum is your starting Center, which makes a lot of sense since the talk is that the LG position is still a question mark.

A new CB would have to beat out Apple, which some may see happening but it’s not a foregone conclusion as some may want to believe.

DT could get a shot but would have to beat out BJ Hill and that would be a fight for a rookie.

TE might be the best shot for a rookie starter.

Where else ?? Punter ??

[Stripes]

For an immediate starter-caliber player that can provide appropriate value for #31: OL > CB > IDL > other. I agree that Apple and Hill aren't going to be pushed back without a fight, and it might not happen until midseason if even then. This is kind of why Linderbaum is my favorite [realistic] choice. The edge rushers are also nice options since they can make major impacts without being starters.

Tight end is a valid example, but this draft sucks there. From #63 onward they can go for it though. I figure Hurst is going to start.

[membengal]

Good discussion guys. 

[Wraith]

16 minutes ago, ArmyBengal said:

If you want someone to come in and start this season, the options are limited.

Move Karras to LG and Linderbaum is your starting Center, which makes a lot of sense since the talk is that the LG position is still a question mark.

A new CB would have to beat out Apple, which some may see happening but it’s not a foregone conclusion as some may want to believe.

DT could get a shot but would have to beat out BJ Hill and that would be a fight for a rookie.

TE might be the best shot for a rookie starter.

Where else ?? Punter ??

Agree with everything here.  Linderbaum is a mauler and that will not change in the NFL.  He will be a multiple time pro bowler.  As for the short arms, the only way that would be a problem for me is if he played tackle....he doesn't.  Pick him or trade up to get him.

[Wraith]

By the way, this is the time and the draft to trade up.  This team is built to win NOW.  Take advantage of the fact that this is a back loaded draft (few blue chip players, lots of depth) to get guys that can make an impact in 2022.  Take advantage of the fact that teams are coveting Capital for next year because it is a stronger class.  Trade up into the top 10 by trading next year's one, get Stingley or Gardiner, too rich??? package  some of this year's picks trade up to the low 20's and get Linderbaum.  This is the time to be aggressive, Mike, get a Lombardi before you die.  8 rookies aren't making this roster.

[HoosierCat]

27 minutes ago, Wraith said:

By the way, this is the time and the draft to trade up.  This team is built to win NOW.  Take advantage of the fact that this is a back loaded draft (few blue chip players, lots of depth) to get guys that can make an impact in 2022.  Take advantage of the fact that teams are coveting Capital for next year because it is a stronger class.  Trade up into the top 10 by trading next year's one, get Stingley or Gardiner, too rich??? package  some of this year's picks trade up to the low 20's and get Linderbaum.  This is the time to be aggressive, Mike, get a Lombardi before you die.  8 rookies aren't making this roster.

I fully endorse this post

[ArmyBengal]

I think trading up or down has its pros and cons most drafts, but especially this one.  Why ?? There were a lot of bunch of underclassmen declare and then many that stuck around another year due to the NCAA ruling regarding COVID for them to stay another year.

This should equate to getting more impact players further in the draft. Thus those mid round picks are going to have more value than in years past.

So on one hand I could argue trading up for potential quality would be in our best interest, but the fact of the matter is that if you want that window to stay open longer, getting more quality players on their rookie deals isn’t a poor approach.

Again, none of this will really bother me.
I just don’t view any single approach as THE way the team has to go.

[ArmyBengal]

Here's an example and obviously this varies from one draft evaluation to another:

I made a trade in a mock with the Jets moving up from the 4th pick in the 2nd round with the Bengals and we got #111, the 6th pick in the 4th.
I took (Center) Tyler Linderbaum and (DT) Logan Hall with our two picks in the 2nd round.
I followed that with (CB) Marcus Jones in the 3rd, who has elite kick and punt return abilities.
Then with the pick from the Jets, I took (TE) Jelani Woods, who I think would be a great 2nd TE to pair with Hurst.
The 2nd pick in the 4th was what some will say is a reach, but I had an extra pick so I ensured our future punter with Matt Araiza.
The 5th round saw (WR) Kyle Phillips fall, who is some insurance in the slot and return competition as well.
The 6th and 7th round picks found depth with (CB) Josh Jobe, (DE) Amare Barno, and (OG) Dylan Parham.

While understanding this is only an example, what is the cost in giving picks to trade up ??
Again, not that I'm against it, but sometimes it's easier to see it from that perspective instead of just simply looking at it as a "pick".
In this instance, those two 4th round picks and probably a subsequent pick changes with a trade up and giving up draft capital.

[membengal]

Really great read here from Chris Trapasso at cbssports  - his unconventional takes including

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2022-nfl-draft-bold-observations-eight-unconventional-takeaways-from-studying-this-draft-class/
 

Quote

 

Arnold Ebiketie is a first-round prospect

No joke, the only knock I have on Ebiketie is that he's already 23 years old. Everything else about his game belts "first-round pick" from the rooftops. He was wildly productive as a pass rusher in his only season at Penn State -- after transferring from Temple. Why was that? Because his traits are spectacular. He's got burst, bend, dip ability, jolting speed-to-power conversion, initial pass-rushing maneuvers, counters off them, and serious closing speed to the quarterback. Want some numbers on this? Ebiketie had a "pass-rush win rate" of 22.9% in 2021, one of the highest figures in the class. For reference, that rate is only a few percentage points lower than Aidan Hutchinson's. Per Pro Football Focus, only 19% of Ebiketie's career pressures were of the unblocked/clean-up. So lower is better here. Hutchinson and Thibodeaux's rate -- 25%. Jermaine Johnson's, 35%. Travon Walker had 45% of his career pressures of the unblocked/clean-up variety.  

 

and

Quote

 

Kyler Gordon is a better prospect than Trent McDuffie

Here's my theory on why McDuffie is mostly regarded as a better cornerback prospect than Gordon -- McDuffie was simply initially ranked higher than Gordon, so it's difficult for some to flip the two this late in the process. 

Gordon is just better. He's longer, more explosive, way more flexibility, nastier flying down to help out for the run game and is equally as good -- if not better -- attacking the ball in the air. OK, so McDuffie has better timed speed. To me, when it comes to covering receivers and finding the football, whether it be arriving via a pass attempt or in a ball carrier's hands, Gordon is better than his Washington teammate. 

 

 

[ArmyBengal]

I’ve been big in Gordon for a while now. I always hoped he would make it to our pick in the second round but that’s a pipe dream at this point.

In all honesty, I haven’t looked at Ebigtitty at all since I never really gave much thought to the Bengals taking him with an early round pick considering other needs. I will have to take a peek.

[TJJackson]

If anyone has espn insider, can you paste this mock draft here - the Bengals part, at least?

https://twitter.com/JoeGoodberry/status/1516399191647531011

[membengal]

It is one the worst mocks I have ever seen 

 

devin Lloyd 

phidalian Mathis (the Alabama d-lineman)

Josh Jobe - CB

So a LB who would backup Logan Wilson, a backup for DJ Reader, and a massive reach at CB 

[Stripes]

I see a lot of mocks projecting nose tackle types for the Bengals (both within and outside the fanbase). I don't get it. Reader, Tupou, and Shelvin probably have that group locked down. 3T/interior pass rush is a different story.

[membengal]

Lazy shit from kiper and mcshay. Entirely. 
 

National types STILL don’t spend more than five minutes on the bengals.

[ArmyBengal]

30 minutes ago, membengal said:

It is one the worst mocks I have ever seen 

devin Lloyd 

phidalian Mathis (the Alabama d-lineman)

Josh Jobe - CB

So a LB who would backup Logan Wilson, a backup for DJ Reader, and a massive reach at CB 

Not the worst I've seen, but pretty close:

I have no issue with Lloyd at #31.  He would present good value at that spot for sure.
I have seen him projected as either a MLB or SLB.  Currently they have Bailey listed as the starting SLB.
No issue here, unless the Bengals coaches view his strictly as a MLB.

I have ZERO interest in Mathis anywhere in the draft.  I simply don't like his game or upside.
To Stripes point (which I agree) he's not the 3T DT we need to address in the draft either.

I like Josh Jobe, but agree with Mem in that the 3rd round is a massive reach.
Not sure who put that together, but would be surprised to see Jobe go that high.
Sign me up for him in the 5th round or later only after we have already drafted a higher caliber CB.

[AMPHAR]

10 minutes ago, Stripes said:

I see a lot of mocks projecting nose tackle types for the Bengals (both within and outside the fanbase). I don't get it. Reader, Tupou, and Shelvin probably have that group locked down. 3T/interior pass rush is a different story.

NT type DT would be an example of BPA over need.   I don't agree with the thought above  there are limited options.    BJ/Larry sucked up 1,200+ snaps last year.  BJ role may grow but you are still short 500-700 snaps with a large portion being pass rush 3T, I would guess.

Then you add into the reality that both Hubbard/Hendrickson accounted nearly 1,600 snaps playing approx 72% of the time which is not ideal.  

Then the reality that there is still room for more pass rush even if you get last year's production.

There are alot of options to create a better D-line rotation .  A pass rusher selected may not meet definition of starter but there a lot of snaps there.

That does not even factor in a risk they have brewing at CB.   Any draft pick first or 2nd round doesn't even have to beat out a current top 3 CB to have a shot at maybe 15-25% of snaps that would right now be served via UDFA or Flowers.

 

[AMPHAR]

IMO,  mocks with IOL listed at 31 is in the same mold as last year of them still putting Sewell or in the minority Slater.   Lazy.

Last year I believe the Bengals confirm Williams would be the LT, then signed Reif.   That made it clear that the pick would go Pitts/Chase.

I think it is unlikely they will do the shuffle along the IOL with critical areas of defensive depth needing addressed. 

[Stripes]

I agree that the Bengals won’t draft IOL at 31, but I don’t agree that they shouldn’t.