Time to begin the rebuild

[volcom69]

Marvin will go somewhere where he can control the things he wants and he will be back in the playoffs.

Tua now out will make things much more interesting.

[cincyhokie]

The burden of proof is still on Marvin. He’s drastically underperformed with some really talented rosters when the game has counted the most. His record in prime time, vs. the Steelers, and the 2013 playoff loss all come to mind. 
 

He’s the Dusty Baker of the NFL.

[cincyhokie]

With Tua’s health in question, Burrow is the clear favorite at #1. If the Bengals miss out on Burrow and can get Chase Young, that has to be an option. BUT, they’d better figure out a way to trade back into the first to get a QB and not wait until the second round.

Burrow or bust.

[AMPHAR]

Marvin is a good coach.   He sucked when it counted the most.

Bengals could have kept him and he would be winning the division in 2022 or something.

But they’d be a 3rd or 4th seed dropping a couple regular season games costing them the bye and them squander a lead at home in the playoffs. 

[ShulaSteakhouse]

 

1 hour ago, cincyhokie said:

With Tua’s health in question, Burrow is the clear favorite at #1. If the Bengals miss out on Burrow and can get Chase Young, that has to be an option. BUT, they’d better figure out a way to trade back into the first to get a QB and not wait until the second round.

Burrow or bust.

A little early for that I think still,  depends on what Tua decides to do, and how he recovers of course, but I'm not sure Burrow is a clear #1 QB yet.  For instance Herbert has a stronger arm, similar if not better size and athletic ability, and a lot more experience as a starting QB. 

It could go either way with those two, and someone else could always step into the picture, much like Josh Allen did.

Ideally, IMO, the Bengals' would benefit most from a Wilson/Jackson/Watson/Mahomes type, who can overcome breakdowns and create, but Taylor's likely looking for the next Goff type here, pocket passer, which makes Burrow and Herbert tops on their list I'm guessing, but who knows at this point.  Usually the Bengals' prefer to draft injured players in the 1st round.

 

[cincyhokie]

33 minutes ago, ShulaSteakhouse said:

 

A little early for that I think still,  depends on what Tua decides to do, and how he recovers of course, but I'm not sure Burrow is a clear #1 QB yet.  For instance Herbert has a stronger arm, similar if not better size and athletic ability, and a lot more experience as a starting QB. 

It could go either way with those two, and someone else could always step into the picture, much like Josh Allen did.

Ideally, IMO, the Bengals' would benefit most from a Wilson/Jackson/Watson/Mahomes type, who can overcome breakdowns and create, but Taylor's likely looking for the next Goff type here, pocket passer, which makes Burrow and Herbert tops on their list I'm guessing, but who knows at this point.  Usually the Bengals' prefer to draft injured players in the 1st round.

 

Hurts would be the QB in the Jackson/Watson mold. If that's what they're going for, they just need a plan to go get him. I prefer Burrow to Herbert mostly because of the "intangibles". I like his demeanor. I wouldn't be upset with Herbert, though. If/when the Bengals pick in the top 3, he'll certainly be there. I'm beginning to wonder if the Redskins get the overall #1 that they wouldn't go QB seeing how Haskins is playing. 

If the Bengals get the 1 or 2 overall draft spot, they're in decent shape. If the Bengals want to draft the injured player, they'll draft Tua.

[ShulaSteakhouse]

9 minutes ago, cincyhokie said:

Hurts would be the QB in the Jackson/Watson mold. If that's what they're going for, they just need a plan to go get him. I prefer Burrow to Herbert mostly because of the "intangibles". I like his demeanor. I wouldn't be upset with Herbert, though. If/when the Bengals pick in the top 3, he'll certainly be there. I'm beginning to wonder if the Redskins get the overall #1 that they wouldn't go QB seeing how Haskins is playing. 

If the Bengals get the 1 or 2 overall draft spot, they're in decent shape. If the Bengals want to draft the injured player, they'll draft Tua.

Not sure I have a preference for him or Herbert either at this point. 

[Stripes]

Rebuild note:

I think Ryan Finley looks pretty terrible.  I realize he is a rookie and has barely gotten to play, so we'll see.  His arm looks very weak to me though -- when he throws to the sideline it's an interception threat nearly without fail.  I appreciate his mobility, but we're not going to get anywhere with that alone.  This guy is a backup at best, and I am not sure yet he's even that.

[volcom69]

Yea Finley should not even be an option at this point, they need a QB moving forward. Didn’t think it could get much worse, but watching Finley is just terrible.

[AMPHAR]

Redskins are a wild card for QB for sure.   I just don't think last year's 1st round QBs were really all that strong a group as far as prospects are concerned.     That's why I challenge anyone who claims a "2nd round" QB is not worth it.   The particular round does not matter.  Draft classes are not equal.    This particular QB class is coming up strong because several high profile high school QBs went to colleges and transferred but also validated their talent level on the college field and are now landing in the same NFL class.

Redskins and Haskins.    Haskins does throw a nice deep ball and probably would be a 2nd or 3rd round QB in this year's crop.    So if the Skins move on does another team jump on Haskins as the future and taking them out of 1st/2nd round QB derby for this year? 

Guys like Dalton, Bridgewater, Newton, Foles are going to have jobs next year most likely.   How likely is a team to invest in one of those QBs and then invest in another Qb with a high draft pick?

The QB "hot stove league" is always a NFL offseason headliner and it will the biggest ever this season. 

[AMPHAR]

3 hours ago, volcom69 said:

Yea Finley should not even be an option at this point, they need a QB moving forward. Didn’t think it could get much worse, but watching Finley is just terrible.

Finley shouldn't be an option unless he can prove to be able to get points on the board.    Which he hasn't so far. 

[COB]

I understand the concept of QB talent varying year to year.  
 

Nonetheless there is a ton of data that says, if you want an all pro quarterback, get one in the first round.  2nd round on down has produced very mediocre results, minus a few outliers (most notably Brady and Brees).  

[Wraith]

I think this myth that you have to choose at QB high to have a good QB needs to be debunked.  Lets look at the top 15 QBs in QBR and look at their draft position.

Patrick Mahomes: drafted Rd.1 Pick 10, second QB selected in his draft.

Russell Wilson: drafted Rd. 3 Pick #75, sixth QB taken in his draft

Dak Prescott: drafted Rd. 4 Pick 135, seventh QB is his draft

Lamar Jackson: drafted Rd. 1 Pick #32, fifth QB selected in his draft

Deshaun Watson: draft Rd. 1 Pick #12, third QB selected in his draft

Matthew Stafford: drafted Rd. 1 Pick #1, obviously first QB taken in his draft....has yet to win a playoff game....

Carson Wentz: drafted Rd. 1 Pick #2, second QB taken in his draft....his team won the Super Bowl with Nick Foles as their QB through the playoffs...Rd. 2 Pick 88

Matt Ryan: drafted Rd. 1 Pick #1, obviously first QB taken in his draft, not won a SuperBowl

Kyler Murray: drafted Rd. 1 Pick #1, obviously first QB taken in his draft

Kirk Cousins: drafted Rd. 4 Pick 102, seventh QB taken in his draft

Derek Carr: drafted Rd 2 Pick 36, fourth QB taken in his draft

Ryan Fitzpatrick: Rd. 7 Pick 250, last drafted QB in his class (14th QB selected)

Jimmy Garappolo: Rd. 2 Pick 62, fifth QB taken in his class

Tom Brady: Rd. 6 Pick 199, seventh QB selected in his class (Bengals selected Neil Rackers ahead of him....)

Aaron Rodgers: Rd. 1 Pick 24, second QB taken in his class

 

Honorable Mentions:

Drew Brees: Rd. 2 Pick 32, second QB taken in his draft

Jacoby Brissett: Rd. 3 Pick 91 (QBR rank #17, QB Rating #16)

 

Of the 17 QBs listed, 4 were selected in the top 5, 5 were selected in the top 10, only 8 were selected in the first round....that ladies and gentlemen is less than 50%. and of the 5 2019 MVP candidates on this list (Wilson, Mahomes, Jackson, Watson, and Rodgers), none were selected in the top 5 and only 2 were selected in the top ten....none were the first QB selected in their respective drafts.

QB selection is such a crap shoot.  Of the guys eligible for this draft the one guy with the starting experience and the proven winning pedigree is Jalen Hurts and he is a projected 3rd Round pick...it would not surprise me if we are looking back at this draft in ten years if he was the HoF candidate....PFF has him the 10 best QB prospect in this draft.....

Trade the #1 get a 2020 first (has to be top ten) and a second and a 2021 first.  Take Tristen Wirfs or Isiah Simmons or Andrew Thomas or Chase Young with the first, take the best available guard, C or LB with #32, take an impact defensive or offensive linemen with the second second rd. pick and take Jalen Hurts with the third.  Burrow is a one year wonder, Tua has had injury problems, Herbert has not looked impressive to me and I question his leadership.  Let someone else take the hit with Burrow, Tagovailoa, and Herbert in Rd. 1. Give me the best guy you evaluate from Fromm, Love, Eason, Costello, or Hurts in the second or third.

 

If your draft board looks like this:

Rd. 1:  Isiah Simmons, LB Clemson

Rd. 2a: Tyler Biadasz, OG/C, Wisconsin

Rd. 2b: Jordan Love, QB, Utah or Jake Fromm, QB, Georgia

with an additional 1st rounder next year, I like that alot better than

Rd. 1: Tua or Burrow

Rd. 2: Tyler Biadasz, OG/C, Wisconsin

with nothing additional for next year.

 

Do you think honestly, the Rams would choose drafting Jared Goff over choosing Joey Bosa or Ezekiel Elliot and getting Dak Prescott later?

 

[cincyhokie]

You can use the “wait until later” logic as well as the “crapshoot” insight, which I agree with. But you have to realize that all of those 2nd round QB successes were done by mistake. If they knew that QB would be that good they’d have taken them earlier. Hindsight can’t be used in strategy. 
 

Plus you absolutely have to factor in immediate need. How many of the these QBs you listed were luxury or roll the dice picks? And then they developed later?

The Bengals #1 draft need is at QB. Do you really want to roll the dice on a QB you really like hoping he’ll slide past other teams that don’t see how good you think he is? It’s as if the Bengals are out-scouting other teams with this implied philosophy. Ha!

You can’t use hindsight of other picks in determining future success.

 

[AMPHAR]

On ‎11‎/‎18‎/‎2019 at 10:33 AM, COB said:

I understand the concept of QB talent varying year to year.  
 

Nonetheless there is a ton of data that says, if you want an all pro quarterback, get one in the first round.  2nd round on down has produced very mediocre results, minus a few outliers (most notably Brady and Brees).  

That data is important and it's a fantastic conversation piece.

There has been a significant change due to NCAA Transfer Portal.    That reality skews this particular NFL draft class.     Several high profile high school QBs from various recruiting classes have shuffled around the country because of changes in the NCAA transfer landscape.   Because of these transfers and the requirement of sitting out etc.  that in turn appears to be populating this NFL draft class.    Historical data has never faced this before.  

In addition,  this will be a very deep NFL vet QB class as well. 

The X factor is going to be how do teams react which is supported by the historical data.  The data or belief suggests that if a QB prospect shows a hint of "franchise" potential they will rush to draft them in the first round.    

 

[Wraith]

11 hours ago, cincyhokie said:

You can use the “wait until later” logic as well as the “crapshoot” insight, which I agree with. But you have to realize that all of those 2nd round QB successes were done by mistake. If they knew that QB would be that good they’d have taken them earlier. Hindsight can’t be used in strategy. 
 

Plus you absolutely have to factor in immediate need. How many of the these QBs you listed were luxury or roll the dice picks? And then they developed later?

The Bengals #1 draft need is at QB. Do you really want to roll the dice on a QB you really like hoping he’ll slide past other teams that don’t see how good you think he is? It’s as if the Bengals are out-scouting other teams with this implied philosophy. Ha!

You can’t use hindsight of other picks in determining future success.

 

Why would you say that QB is the #1 draft need....until the Offensive Line gets fixed, nobody can correctly evaluate the QB position.  Acknowledging that Dalton has played his last game as a Bengal, we have no idea what we have with Finley and cannot know until we get a decent offensive line.  Jonah Williams will help but we also have no idea what we have with him.  Andre Smith and John Jerry were both street free agents meaning they did not have a team last year....starting the season with 8 offensive linemen was close to criminal.  Now if the plan is to spend heavily on the offensive line in free agency fine...that is not the Bengals MO.  

I just foresee a David Carr kinda thing where we bring in a guy who may or may not have talent and flush him down the toilet because he is running for his life every snap.  There are great QB prospects in every draft and this thing doesn't get turned around in a year.  There is going to be a high draft pick next year as well.....

[HoosierCat]

I’ve long been an advocate of the “oline first” school of thought, but I have to face reality: due to the way the Bengals operate, it’s very difficult to build and sustain a good offensive line. There are only so many draft picks to go around. Low round picks rarely seem to pan out in Cincy. And when they do get talented guys on the interior, they balk at the second contract price tag. And really, I don’t think they’ve signed a successful FA OL since Bobby Williams.

So at this point, take the shot at a QB. And factor in that he’s going to be playing behind a crappy line. So you either get a mobile guy or someone with great pocket presence. That may not be the No. 1 guy, so yeah, maybe you can trade down, pick up some extra ammo and get your guy later. But if you can get the QB right, then you can spend the 2-3 years it will take to get that 1-2 years with a decent line and make a run.

[cincyhokie]

1 hour ago, Wraith said:

Why would you say that QB is the #1 draft need....until the Offensive Line gets fixed, nobody can correctly evaluate the QB position.  Acknowledging that Dalton has played his last game as a Bengal, we have no idea what we have with Finley and cannot know until we get a decent offensive line.  Jonah Williams will help but we also have no idea what we have with him.  Andre Smith and John Jerry were both street free agents meaning they did not have a team last year....starting the season with 8 offensive linemen was close to criminal.  Now if the plan is to spend heavily on the offensive line in free agency fine...that is not the Bengals MO.  

I just foresee a David Carr kinda thing where we bring in a guy who may or may not have talent and flush him down the toilet because he is running for his life every snap.  There are great QB prospects in every draft and this thing doesn't get turned around in a year.  There is going to be a high draft pick next year as well.....

I'm not sure asking the Bengals to get 5 positions correct and maintained is what we want to do. (Remember how they handled the last OL contract situation in 2016?) Do we really want the Bengals to have to try and handle 5 separate contracts again? With an ok QB? That's just what we got done with in Andy Dalton.

The QB is one position but it has the most impact on the field. Do you really think there's something in Finley we haven't seen yet? If you do, then ok, I guess.

But I think to most, QB is the glaring need. Then OL, then LB. You can improve both the QB and OL in the draft. If the Bengals have the top OL guy ranked higher than their desired QB, then go for it. Get the OL guy.

But I think we'll see the QB positions being ranked higher by them. One good QB can change a team dynamic DRASTICALLY. Offensive line, while crucial, does not have that type of impact. Think about the best teams in the NFL. Where are the Patriots or Ravens without Brady and Jackson? The Chiefs without Mahomes? The Steelers without Ben?

Go get the stud if he's there at the top. You don't know when you'll be drafting that high again.

[AMPHAR]

Fixing the o-line is proving to be difficult for the bengals.     It's not just a "Bengals" problem but there are plenty of experts that have said multiple times in recent years that O-line prospects are harder to grade and develop.   Lack of hitting in practice and the spread offense in college.    I just got out of the car and on the radio there was a guru of something spouting the horrible o-line play across the league.

Waiting for everything to be "fixed" may not be an option.     2nd Bengals are moving on from Dalton.  He gone.   When that happens QB is the No. 1 need. 

3rd - There are plenty of fans that think QBs are a sole product of their surroundings.   That's got truth but also overstated.   Lamar Jackson and some the other young QBs are proving that point.  

 

If fans want to look at the reality.   Bengal fans have posted books about Bobby Hart.   The fact is the Bengals got it right.   Look at the 1st, 2nd, 3rd round draft picks.  There isn't a stand out among them in this season.   Look at the Free Agents a lot of them are busts.   It's proving out that there was 1 upgrade to O-line in FA that was Daryl Williams that would have made an impact on this line.   The rest were steps back or side ways moves unless someone wants to split hairs over a 56 Pff grade and 62. 

Getting a QB early is a must.   The only intrigue is the risk/reward of trying to get that QB lower than No. 1 overall either via a trade down or waiting til pick 33.

I think there's a good chance you'll be staring at a Qb prospect at 33 with a top half first round grade in any normal QB draft.   But it's a risk .

 

[TJJackson]

even as the GIMME A LINEMAN guy, I have to agree that if there is a QB available to draft who you think is going to be a blue chip starter,  you need to take him

that said, you dont want to get him killed or made timid (ala Klingler fetal position) so you have to build a line around him.   Have to.  Even if that means you let the absolute tragedy/disgrace at linebacker go mostly unaddressed for another year

if you cant draft or bring in a quality OLine in 2020, you need to let said star QB sit for a year....which would be a shame. 

So....its a package deal....if you take the qb you have to invest in protection for said qb as well

so.....if they pick that QB in r1, the r2 3 and 4 picks pretty much also need to all be passblocking-first runblocking-second OL, and they need to open the wallet for at least 1 quality OL starter, preferably at ORT (let Hart go or move to backup ORG/ORT) and secondly OLG (never found a decent starter there all year)

Yes, the defense will most likely suffer terribly over such a strategy, but you have to give the new qb a chance not only to stay alive but also hopefully bloom into someone who can win playoff games....even if that means losing because of unaddressed/porous defense the first few years

At the end of the day though - this is the Bengals......I firmly believe that even if they followed this best-practices strategy, they will find and draft a Ryan Leaf even in a sea of Peyton Mannings

 

 

[AMPHAR]

Fixing the line has merit.   I'm not saying it doesn't.  

Let this serve as a reminder that trading down has just as many pit falls.

We traded down to get Glenn.  Then drafted Price.    Raise your hand, Mike Brown was awesome then, lol.

Passed on Lamar Jackson.     Passed on him twice to fix the o-line. 

Land him and the Bengals are on the fast path to playoffs again.     Baltimore's o-line was not good when they drafted him and quite frankly put Wacco Flacco back there is probably isn't good now.  

That was the crucial death nail in keeping Marvin too long.  He only could see Dalton and protecting him as his path.  

 

[membengal]

For any of the Chase Young at #1 overall truthers last night was a real kick in the nuts. Aaron Donald is acclaimed as one of the best defensive players in football if not the best. And he laid exactly zero hands on Lamar Jackson, and his defense full of first round talent didn’t either. The Ravens are still scoring touchdowns this AM...

the one chance this organization has is to get to Burrow and hope he is transcendent. QB changes fortunes of even poorly run teams . Period.

[HoosierCat]

Well, until this organization decides on a course of action, whatever they do in the draft will probably end badly.

If we’re rebuilding, then re-fukking-build. Trade the aging talent you can, release the aging talent you can’t. Stockpile picks. Be prepared to spend in free agency. And for heaven’s sake hire some gee-dash-dee-damned scouts!

And you might just want to hire a real head coach with some pro experience, not, y’know, Zac Taylor.

If that’s the direction, then by all means, draft your QB in the first round and let’s see if we can get this oxcart out of the ditch.

OR...

If we aren’t rebuilding, but “reloading” or some other BS euphemism for trying to recreate 2015, then pay Andy Dalton, draft Chase Young first then all the oline you can for the next six rounds, franchise Green if he won’t sign an extension, fire Taylor and hire Jay Gruden because at least he knows how to use the kid. If you can get Hue back as OC, so much the better.

And pay Marvin Lewis wantever he wants to run your scouting operation.

But whichever choice you make, don’t, I repeat, DON’T. DO BOTH. AT. THE. SAME. TIME. That’s how we landed here, now.

Once the FO makes a choice, then we know who we’re going to take.

If the FO continues to avoid making that choice, who we take won’t matter.

[ShulaSteakhouse]

I'd trade-down if someone wants to give-up additional top 3 round picks for Young or #1 over-all, with Tua hurt, the QB prospects are decent, but I just don't see any of the top 3 being worth more than picking-up additional picks and finding a QB in round 2 or later in round 1 etc.., 

That said I really like Young as a disruptive game-changer on defensive akin to the Bosa bro's or JJ Watt, but with so many needs, and some bland QB prospects at the top now, IMO,  not sure anything other than acquiring more 1st/2nd round picks is the best option, if that's an option.

[TJJackson]

3 hours ago, membengal said:

For any of the Chase Young at #1 overall truthers last night was a real kick in the nuts. Aaron Donald is acclaimed as one of the best defensive players in football if not the best. And he laid exactly zero hands on Lamar Jackson, and his defense full of first round talent didn’t either. The Ravens are still scoring touchdowns this AM...

the one chance this organization has is to get to Burrow and hope he is transcendent. QB changes fortunes of even poorly run teams . Period.

key words"and hope"

If they do draft Burrow, I hope he is the next Lamar Jackson....i really and honestly do.....but I dont think he will be