Bengals Draft

[HoosierCat]

Well, they grow on trees these days, Army.

Re Bridgewater, one thing that hasn't been pointed out much that I've seen is that he actually grades out as a worse prospect than Dalton did (6.15 versus 6.8). It's really a weak QB class this year.

Like COB I don't think there's any real chance they take Teddy. But if other teams think they will, it might induce someone to trade in front of them and push another player down. But if they were to pick Bridgewater I don't see any scenario in which he and Dalton coexist successfully on the roster. Your starting QB is a second-round pick making less $$$ than the new first-round selection? Your entire preseason is a QB competition circus (yeah, that worked well in the past)? Is there any criteria under which Dalton could succeed? Even a Super Bowl win wont do it, all the critics will just point to Flacco and call for Teddy.

It would be a train wreck of epic proportions.

[ArmyBengal]

I've said it numerous times and will say it again, I HATE THIS QB CLASS !!!

HATE.

I would have far less issue in seeing them take the wait and see approach with Dalton and move on in 2015 if that was what they wanted to do.

Minus that, sticking with a QB that has done things no other QB has done in the history of this franchise, wouldn't upset me near as much as others.

It's not that I don't like Bridgewater either and have said I don't believe all the recent talk about him.

I simply don't think he makes any sense for the Bengals regardless of the situation at #24. NONE.

You either trade down or simply make another selection and focus on 2014.

Want a QB ?? Wait until later and take your chances there.

He's going to have the same impact the guy people want at #24 would.

[membengal]

I'd take Bridgewater at 24 if I were them. Hedge against Dalton shitting the bed again in big spots this year. Hedge against not wanting to pay him what it might require to keep him even if he does shit the bed. Built in replacement, and, worst case scenario, Dalton does awesome, they pay him, and they have a quality back-up who might be trade bait in a year or two.

[redsbengalsbucks]

I'd take Bridgewater at 24 if I were them. Hedge against Dalton shitting the bed again in big spots this year. Hedge against not wanting to pay him what it might require to keep him even if he does shit the bed. Built in replacement, and, worst case scenario, Dalton does awesome, they pay him, and they have a quality back-up who might be trade bait in a year or two.

Worse case scenario is Dalton continues to grow, does not make it to the SB, the front office gets rid of him for little to nothing in return and he takes another team to the SB winning over the Bengals.

[Walrus]

I'd take Bridgewater at 24 if I were them. Hedge against Dalton shitting the bed again in big spots this year. Hedge against not wanting to pay him what it might require to keep him even if he does shit the bed. Built in replacement, and, worst case scenario, Dalton does awesome, they pay him, and they have a quality back-up who might be trade bait in a year or two.

Worse case scenario is Dalton continues to grow, does not make it to the SB, the front office gets rid of him for little to nothing in return and he takes another team to the SB winning over the Bengals.

So.... Worst case, Bridgewater takes the Bengals to the SB in his first year as a starter, plus we get compensation for non-playoff-winning, noodle-armed, soulless Andy Dalton. I think I'll tale that risk!

[Wraith]

Wow, just wow. Andy has had his ups and downs but you guys are really advocating taking a guy I (and much of the league) has a third round grade on just on the off chance he doesn't improve in his fourth NFL season....God what fickle fans we are.

As for taking a guy outside of Corner if all the good ones are taken - if you do the math if 5 Corners are taken ahead of 24 and both corners are gone that means a lot of great talent has fallen Anthony Barr, or the tackle from Michigan that I can't spell because my damn phone thinks it knows what I am trying to type better than I could be sitting there so yeah, deepest draft in a decade and are going to take a Quarterback we do not need if the Corners are all gone?

Smdh

[Wraith]

Oh and about the almost impossible to find Quarterback outside the first round. Currently there are 14 teams starting a Quarterback taken outside the first round and several are Super Bowl winners so can we please dispense with the myth that you must taken a Quarterback in the first to be successful, did you know that first round bust rate is higher on Quarterbacks then any other position?

[membengal]

So pick a different qb, then , wraith. But I don't see the downside to getting a legit back-up QB option in place, with a year to learn, while we see how Dalton plays out. I remain highly uncomfortable with this team tying up $16 - $18 million a year in payroll in Dalton. I don't think he is good enough to cover where the team would then have to go short elsewhere under the cap. Hell, look how that played out for Baltimore last year with Flacco. Went from Super Bowl to missing playoffs, in part because they tied up so much money in their QB.

[HoosierCat]

I'd take Bridgewater at 24 if I were them. Hedge against Dalton shitting the bed again in big spots this year. Hedge against not wanting to pay him what it might require to keep him even if he does shit the bed. Built in replacement, and, worst case scenario, Dalton does awesome, they pay him, and they have a quality back-up who might be trade bait in a year or two.

Worse case scenario is Dalton continues to grow, does not make it to the SB, the front office gets rid of him for little to nothing in return and he takes another team to the SB winning over the Bengals.

That would be lousy, but I think a more realistic worst-case scenario is the Bengals waste a first-round pick on a backup QB (!) who can't get them any further than (or even possibly as far as) Dalton while missing an opportunity to address needs on the OL, DL, LB or CB. Then while Teddy sits on the bench watching Dalton, breakdowns at tackle or in our AARP-sourced secondary sink our chances of a fourth straight playoff season. And come next January, they are still debating Andy's paycheck, so nothing is resolved.

[HoosierCat]

Hell, look how that played out for Baltimore last year with Flacco. Went from Super Bowl to missing playoffs, in part because they tied up so much money in their QB.

I don't think Flacco's contract had anything significant to do with Baltimore's failure to get back to the playoffs. The real problem is that alleged super-genius Ozzie Newsome's recent drafts have been poor. Here's espn looking back at the last four drafts:

Baltimore: Total picks: 33. Picks still on roster: 23 (70 percent). Picks who are currently projected starters: 8. Pro Bowl players drafted: 0.

Cincinnati: Total picks: 37. Picks still on roster: 24 (65 percent). Picks who are currently projected starters: 8. Pro Bowl players drafted: 4.

Cleveland: Total picks: 33. Picks still on roster: 17 (51 percent). Picks who are currently projected starters: 7. Pro Bowl players drafted: 3.

Pittsburgh: Totals picks: 35. Picks still on the roster: 20 (57 percent). Picks who are currently projected as starters: 12. Pro Bowl players drafted: 2.

There's more at the link. But the bottom line is that Ozzie the Wizard has barely been better at finding starters in the draft than Cleveland, whose coaches and FO change more often than spring weather. And while every other team has found 2-4 top-tier players in the last four drafts, Ozzie has found a big fat zero.

[Scottishbengal]

Wow, just wow. Andy has had his ups and downs but you guys are really advocating taking a guy I (and much of the league) has a third round grade on just on the off chance he doesn't improve in his fourth NFL season....

I don't think a QB would be looked at as insurance against Dalton not improving - I think it's more a case of insurance should Dalton not sign a new contract (holding out for top $$). If he hasn't signed by the draft then I would be happy at moving on from him either this draft or next. The Bengals wouldn't have offered a ridiculously low salary, they pay well when it's been earned, but I feel Dalton may want a salary over and above what he has demonstrated as his true worth.

[redsbengalsbucks]

I'd take Bridgewater at 24 if I were them. Hedge against Dalton shitting the bed again in big spots this year. Hedge against not wanting to pay him what it might require to keep him even if he does shit the bed. Built in replacement, and, worst case scenario, Dalton does awesome, they pay him, and they have a quality back-up who might be trade bait in a year or two.

Worse case scenario is Dalton continues to grow, does not make it to the SB, the front office gets rid of him for little to nothing in return and he takes another team to the SB winning over the Bengals.

So.... Worst case, Bridgewater takes the Bengals to the SB in his first year as a starter, plus we get compensation for non-playoff-winning, noodle-armed, soulless Andy Dalton. I think I'll tale that risk! ^_^/>

Wow, you really are a half full kind of guy aren't you. I never would have looked at that as a winning scenario.

[Walrus]

Oh and about the almost impossible to find Quarterback outside the first round. Currently there are 14 teams starting a Quarterback taken outside the first round and several are Super Bowl winners so can we please dispense with the myth that you must taken a Quarterback in the first to be successful, did you know that first round bust rate is higher on Quarterbacks then any other position?

Limiting it to 1st round was a bit of hyperbole - maybe I should have included Rd 2. Or not. Point is, successful Quarterbacks almost have to be taken high.

Super Bowl QB draft positions since 1970:

1st Overall – 7 QBs combined for 19 starts

Top 10 – 13 QBs, 26 starts

1st Rd – 21 QBs, 38 starts

2nd Rd – 5 QBs, 6 starts

3rd Rd – 6 QBs, 9 starts

4th Rd – 3 QBs, 4 starts

5th Rd – N/A

6th Rd – 4 QBs, 8 starts

7th Rd or later – 2 QBs, 2 starts

Undrafted – 2 QBs, 4 starts

/>http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/troll-report-value-first-round-qbs/15221/

[HoosierCat]

While we're talking about draft slots, an interesting piece on cbs sports this morning on the liklihood of finding a top player at a particular spot in the first round. Based on 10 years of data, the 24th pick is a gold mine.

The two spikes really stand out, huh?

24th is the biggest surprise, only because it's so low in the draft. It'd be bizarre if a bunch of teams just hit on really good players late in the round at that specific pick.

But that's kind of what's happened since 2002. The biggest outlier is the Packers taking Aaron Rodgers (88 CarAV). But the Ravens got Ed Reed (107), the Rams got Steven Jackson (70), the Colts got Dallas Clark (51), the Titans got Chris Johnson (63), the Bengals got Johnathan Joseph (49), the Cowboys got Dez Bryant (36) and the Saints got Cameron Jordan (26).

There are still Peria Jerry and Brandon Meriweather on the list but that's a strong group of players for so late in the draft. It's even weirder they'd end up getting taken at a similar pick.

My theory? Lots of quality teams allowed to sit in a sweet spot of the draft. Being a better team means not drafting for need, which means the ability to take the best player on the board (like CJ2K). It also means you can swoop on a guy who inexplicably drops to you there (a la Rodgers).

That mostly holds true. Even Dallas managed to be good that year and somehow didn't make an awkwardly aggressive move up the board for their guy.

What's the theory for the spike at the 11th spot then? Somewhat similar: teams found themself just outside the "top 10" for prospects and picking up value that fell for whatever reason. Also, it's easier to use a pick that's not "in the top 10" on a guy you have a conviction about. J.J. Watt is a great example; seems dumb now but he wasn't a lock to go early in 2011.

More at the link.

[Wraith]

Ok pick a backup in the third or fourth totally good with that. Pick McCarron, pick Murray, pick Savage, pick Fales, pick Jeff Matthews from Cornell. These are all excellent options in the middle rounds but taking a first or second round selection on a guy who probably won't see the field this year and may not ever be more than a backup is idiocy imho.

[TJJackson]

Re Bridgewater, one thing that hasn't been pointed out much that I've seen is that he actually grades out as a worse prospect than Dalton did (6.15 versus 6.8). It's really a weak QB class this year.

taking a guy I (and much of the league) has a third round grade

what predraft rating/grade did Tom Brady get? :-)

[HoosierCat]

Re Bridgewater, one thing that hasn't been pointed out much that I've seen is that he actually grades out as a worse prospect than Dalton did (6.15 versus 6.8). It's really a weak QB class this year.

taking a guy I (and much of the league) has a third round grade

what predraft rating/grade did Tom Brady get? :-)

6.1

There's a good article here that looks at why, despite grading out as an NFL starter, Brady fell to the 6th.

[redsbengalsbucks]

Ok pick a backup in the third or fourth totally good with that. Pick McCarron, pick Murray, pick Savage, pick Fales, pick Jeff Matthews from Cornell. These are all excellent options in the middle rounds but taking a first or second round selection on a guy who probably won't see the field this year and may not ever be more than a backup is idiocy imho.

We already have a backup as good as them in McElroy. He is still on the roster isn't he?

[HoosierCat]

I'm pretty sure he got released. But I'm fine with Jason Campbell as the No. 2. He's way better quality than I expected them to land and he's familiar with Hue. Frankly, if the Bengals were bound and determined to start someone not named Dalton this season, Campbell would be a better option than anyone they could draft.

(In fact, if the Bengals are so insane as to take a QB at 24, my advice from there would be to deal Dalton immediately and start Campbell.)

[Wraith]

Actually I think David Fales could be a serious sleeper and Murray was given extremey high praise by Jon Gruden (something like my favorite QB to come into these QB pre draft sessions). The one thing about this QB class is while there isn't anyone that carries a super high grade there is 9-10 QBs in depth that could turn out to be a quality starter in the league in my opinion. It is all about getting the right guy at the right place.

If Murray is still there at the Bengals' selection in the third I will bet they draft him given their affinity for Georgia guys.

[redsbengalsbucks]

I'm pretty sure he got released. But I'm fine with Jason Campbell as the No. 2. He's way better quality than I expected them to land and he's familiar with Hue. Frankly, if the Bengals were bound and determined to start someone not named Dalton this season, Campbell would be a better option than anyone they could draft.

(In fact, if the Bengals are so insane as to take a QB at 24, my advice from there would be to deal Dalton immediately and start Campbell.)

I agree totally, no reason to even keep Dalton if they draft a QB at 24

[redsbengalsbucks]

Actually I think David Fales could be a serious sleeper and Murray was given extremey high praise by Jon Gruden (something like my favorite QB to come into these QB pre draft sessions). The one thing about this QB class is while there isn't anyone that carries a super high grade there is 9-10 QBs in depth that could turn out to be a quality starter in the league in my opinion. It is all about getting the right guy at the right place.

If Murray is still there at the Bengals' selection in the third I will bet they draft him given their affinity for Georgia guys.

I remember Gruden saying the same thing about Dalton during his segment on that show. Ehh!

[COB]

But the bottom line is that Ozzie the Wizard has barely been better at finding starters in the draft than Cleveland, whose coaches and FO change more often than spring weather. And while every other team has found 2-4 top-tier players in the last four drafts, Ozzie has found a big fat zero.

You are drummed out of the NFL cognoscenti, and that's official. Your refusal to blather about Ozzie Newsome's acumen as a personnel man is unforgivable. To redeem yourself you can: 1. Talk about how the Rooney family does everything right. Be sure to mention how many head coaches the Steelers have had. 2. Write something about how smart Bill Bellicheck is. Please don't mention the cheating scandal no one ever mentions. 3. Make some off-hand remarks about how some franchise that's had arrest problems lately is "threatening to turn into the Bengals."

[HoosierCat]

You are drummed out of the NFL cognoscenti, and that's official.

Shoot, there goes my 15% discount at ESPN Zone.

Your refusal to blather about Ozzie Newsome's acumen as a personnel man is unforgivable. To redeem yourself you can: 1. Talk about how the Rooney family does everything right. Be sure to mention how many head coaches the Steelers have had. 2. Write something about how smart Bill Bellicheck is. Please don't mention the cheating scandal no one ever mentions. 3. Make some off-hand remarks about how some franchise that's had arrest problems lately is "threatening to turn into the Bengals."

Don't forget: 4. Be sure to mention invoke Peyton Manning at least once every two minutes and how he is the greatest QB who ever was, is or will be, glory to his name in the highest, amen.

[COB]

If they draft a QB in rounds 1-3 I'll burn down my crappy garden shed. All this talk of the kid from Louisville is preposterous. But for some reason, I just know that kid from Alabama will work out just fine for us. If they draft him, I guess I'm ok with it.