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AFC Championship Weekend: Bengals @ Chiefs


HoosierCat

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Yep. 2001 L, 2002 L, 2003 L, 2004 W (L SB vs. Pats); 2018 L, 2019 W (W SB), 2020 W (L SB vs. Bucs).

Obviously his fortunes have been better with the Chiefs than with the Eagles, but I would never describe Andy Reid as unbeatable. He doesn't present nearly the same psychological threat as Belichick, for example.

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They need an “independent” doctor to clear him?  I wonder how they select Dr. Rubber Stamp for this duty.  I’m just imagining the KC area doctor who gets called in to examine Mathieu, like, “here’s 5 grand, he says he’s fine, the whole city is counting on him playing, and we thought of you first and foremost to make this determination.”

They should seriously use a 3 doctor panel, make them anonymous, and instead of the nfl selecting them, let the AMA or some disinterested party do it. 
 

(Except when it’s one of our players in the playoffs, then go get Dr. Sellodegoma, that chiropractor from Colerain Avenue that sells essential oils and has a lobby full of anti-vax pamphlets, he’ll do a great job)

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I risk sounding “crazy” when I say this. The Bengals win. There’s something pulling this team and city right now energetically. The 49ers will win also. And we’ll beat them in the rematch part 3. Of course, it’s football and I could be wrong. Can’t put my finger on it but it’s a gut feeling. 

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I sense it too, folks. This Bengals team is one that wins. There's really not much else to say.

However, for anyone who might want a more "objective" view, I think there's a very real argument that the Bengals are the better football team.

Are you a strength of schedule person? The Chiefs wins this regular season came against: Browns, Eagles, WFT, [Giants, Packers, Raiders x2, Cowboys, Broncos x2, Chargers, Steelers]
--- The teams contained in brackets reflect the second half "surge" the Chiefs enjoyed, winning 8 of 9.
--- Absolutely none of those wins is impressive. Even the Packers win was a 6-point squeaker against Jordan Love.
--- 
This means the Chiefs have won one game all year that I think qualifies as a "great win" -- last week's divisional playoff win over the Bills. And they were 13 seconds and maybe a squib kick short of losing that game.
The Bengals' wins are comparable in the regular season, with what I'd call two "great wins" overall -- over the Chiefs themselves and in the divisional playoffs over the Titans.

Are you a person that prefers to compare position groups? I think all of the following are reasonable takes:
Quarterback -- Chiefs ≥ Bengals
Running back -- Bengals > Chiefs
Offensive line -- Chiefs > Bengals
Wide receivers and tight ends -- Bengals > Chiefs
Defensive line -- Bengals = Chiefs
Linebackers -- Chiefs ≥ Bengals
Secondary -- Bengals > Chiefs
Special teams -- Chiefs ≥ Bengals
I place these inequality symbols with only a mind for objective production and past trends. Do you think Joe Burrow can hang with Patrick Mahomes in a postseason game? Do you think Evan McPherson can hang with Harrison Butker? I do. If you believe in things like that, then the Bengals are at least Kansas City's equal in summation. I don't personally care for this kind of comparison, but it's not entirely invalid.

Are you a matchups-oriented person?
Kansas City's secondary has faced strong arrays of offensive weaponry I'd count... seven times this season. They were:
L 36-35 @ Baltimore (481 yards allowed; 251 rushing)
L 30-24 vs. Los Angeles Chargers (352 yards allowed, 275 passing)
L 38-20 vs. Buffalo (436 yards allowed, 315 passing)
W 19-9 vs. Dallas (276 yards allowed, 194 passing)
W 34-28 @ Chargers (428 yards allowed, 236 passing, 192 rushing)
L 34-31 @ Cincinnati (475 yards allowed, 415 passing)
W 42-36 vs. Buffalo (422 yards allowed, 313 passing)
--- Count 'em up, and the Chiefs were 3-4 in those games. They allowed 400+ yards in 5 of those games. Their absolute worst defensive performance came against the absolute best arsenal of weapons (ours, bitches). The Kansas City defense has been hot garbage most of the season. In some of these they got dominated in the defensive backfield, and others they got chewed up on the ground. In only ONE of these games did they hold their opponent under 28 points, and that was against the Cowboys -- not something that means much to me.
--- So as bad as the Bengals offensive line has been, there hasn't been nearly enough attention directed at how bad the Kansas City secondary has been. Tyrann Mathieu is a good player, but the rest of that unit offers very little resistance to quality receiving talent. They were horrible in our last matchup, and clearly that wasn't a fluke. They're just bad.
--- The Bengals' biggest weakness, clearly the offensive line in pass protection, was exposed badly against the Titans (10th in the league in sacks). The Chiefs (29th in sacks) will be hard-pressed to replicate or even approach the sack production that the Titans managed. They may managed to pressure Joe Burrow a decent amount, but... well he kills it under pressure. Be my guest.
--- The Chiefs are a blitz-heavy team. Joe Burrow murders the blitz. The Chiefs are a man-coverage defense predominantly. Joe Burrow murders man coverage.
--- The Bengals' secondary has designed itself to deal with star-driven offensive opponents. Chidobe Awuzie was great against Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill the first time. Tre Flowers has been a marked improvement in tight end coverage. Bell played like a fringe Pro Bowler much of the season, and Bates has been one of their best players overall in the postseason.
--- We can answer their Creed Humphrey advantage with our DJ Reader advantage.
--- Hubbard is an extremely disciplined edge player who is well-suited to deal with Mahomes' escapability. He's the kind of player that you need in this matchup to prevent Mahomes from killing you all game with his legs as he did the Bills. Hubbard really emphasizes a sort of edge mush rush and can engage multiple gaps.

This post is big enough. You get the point. I think the Bengals are going to win this game because that's just what they do this year. I don't really give a crap who they're opposed by. But there are solid arguments there for anyone that draws strength from them.

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If you go by PFF grading the difference is even more stark.

Offense:

QB:. Burrow 92.4, Mahomes 80.9 - Adv. Bengals

RB: Mixon 78.4, highest graded Chiefs RB is Darrel Williams @ 66.7 - Adv. Bengals

WR: Chase 85.1, Higgins 82.2, Boyd 70.6 - Hill 85.7, Hardman 69.8, Pringle 65.2 - Adv. Bengals

TE: Uzomah 63.8, Kelce 84.3 - Adv. Chiefs

C: Hopkins 51.9, Humphrey 92.2 Adv. Chiefs

G: Spain 69.8, Adeniji 47.5 - Thuney 81, Smith 72.2 - Adv. Chiefs

LT: Williams 76.1, Niang 64.6 - Adv. Bengals

RT: Prince 55.6, Brown 76.3 - Adv. Chiefs

Defense:

OCB: Awuzie 74.7, Apple 60.2 - Fenton 82, Ward 67.8 - Adv. Chiefs

NCB: Hilton 74.4, Hughes 72.9 - Adv. Bengals

S: Bell 75.6, Bates 64.3 - Thornhill 70.8, Mathieu 66.8 - Adv. Push

LB: Wilson 56.6, Pratt 50.3 - Bolton 71.2, Gay 63.2 - Adv. Chiefs

DT: Reader 82.3, Hill 71.4, Tupuo 55.6 - Jones 84.1, Reed 51.3, Nnandi 50.3 Adv. Bengals

DE: Hendrickson 72.3, Hubbard 64.1 - Ingram 81.3, Clark 56.3 - Adv. Push

In summary both teams are evenly matched by the grades, the Bengals Adv. At RB is offset by Kelce.  The offensive live favors the Chiefs but the Bengals have an overall edge at the skill positions.  On defense the Chiefs have an adv. At LB but the Bengals are stouter and deeper on the interior.

It all comes down to one thing, who plays better at QB and in a big game I am putting my money on Burrow.

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43 minutes ago, membengal said:

That’s awesome. Who dey!

I thought so.

However, if you asked my wife, kids and 80+ year old mother in law, I’m pretty sure they would beg to differ.

My wife asked me, “What the hell are you doing ??”

I quickly responded with my own question…
”Is that a trick question ??”

Yeah, it’s a good thing she loves me.

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2 minutes ago, ArmyBengal said:

I thought so.

However, if you asked my wife, kids and 80+ year old mother in law, I’m pretty sure they would beg to differ.

My wife asked me, “What the hell are you doing ??”

I quickly responded with my own question…
”Is that a trick question ??”

Yeah, it’s a good thing she loves me.

Yeah I got up at 5 too....if I started shouting Who Dey at 5 am I am pretty sure my wife would kick me out of the house, I am pretty sure my 15 year old daughters would also be carrying pitchforks.

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It's 8am. My wife woke me up with a nice surprise (herself.) Dinner is set to be beef ribs cooked all day. My father's coming down to see the game. And oh yeah, the freakin Bengals are playin in the AFCCG!

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