2021 NFL Draft

[membengal]

This might help discussions in here for a bit:

On 12/15 in the Athletic - Brugler posted his top 10 potential draft eligible players at each position - even if you get The Athletic you may have missed it:

 https://theathletic.com/2260828/2020/12/15/nfl-draft-position-rankings/

I will see if I can paste some of that on here - (again, these are Brugler's top 10 at each position):

(the * on this list are draft-eligible underclassman who have yet to declare as of 12/15/20)
 

Quote

 

Quarterback

1. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson (6-5, 220)
2. *Zach Wilson, BYU (6-2, 212)
3. *Justin Fields, Ohio State (6-3, 218)
4. Trey Lance, North Dakota State (6-3, 225)
5. *Mac Jones, Alabama (6-2, 215)
6. Kyle Trask, Florida (6-4, 236)
7. *JT Daniels, Georgia (6-2, 214)
8. *Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati (6-4, 220)
9. *Davis Mills, Stanford (6-4, 225)
10. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh (6-1, 216)

Running back

1. Travis Etienne, Clemson (5-10, 212)
2. Najee Harris, Alabama (6-2, 232)
3. *Javonte Williams, North Carolina (5-10, 220)
4. Michael Carter, North Carolina (5-9, 195)
5. Kenneth Gainwell, Memphis (5-11, 195)
6. *Chuba Hubbard, Oklahoma State (6-0, 210)
7. Elijah Mitchell, Louisiana (5-10, 218)
8. *Zamir White, Georgia (6-0, 215)
9. Khalil Herbert, Virginia Tech (5-9, 212)
10. *Jaret Patterson, Buffalo (5-9, 195)

(MY NOTE--- I WONDER IF TREY SERMON STARTS TO MAKE THESE LISTS NOW)

Wide receiver

1. Ja’Marr Chase, LSU (6-0, 210)
2. DeVonta Smith, Alabama (6-0, 172)
3. *Jaylen Waddle, Alabama (5-10, 182)
4. Kadarius Toney, Florida (5-11, 195)
5. Terrace Marshall Jr., LSU (6-3, 203)
6. *Rondale Moore, Purdue (5-9, 180)
7. Rashod Bateman, Minnesota (6-2, 210)
8. *Chris Olave, Ohio State (6-1, 188)
9. *Amon-Ra St. Brown, USC (6-1, 195)
10. *Elijah Moore, Ole Miss (5-9, 185)

Brugler: "This is another loaded class of wide receivers, so it didn’t feel right stopping at 10."

11. Nico Collins, Michigan (6-3, 217)
12. Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma State (5-11, 187)
13. *Dyami Brown, North Carolina (6-1, 195)
14. *Seth Williams, Auburn (6-3, 225)
15. Amari Rodgers, Clemson (5-9, 202)
16. Sage Surratt, Wake Forest (6-3, 215)
17. Marquez Stevenson, Houston (5-11, 185)
18. *Tamorrion Terry, Florida State (6-4, 210)
19. Trevon Grimes, Florida (6-4, 210)
20. Tutu Atwell, Louisville (5-9, 165)

Tight end

1. *Kyle Pitts, Florida (6-6, 240)
2. *Pat Freiermuth, Penn State (6-5, 260)
3. *Brevin Jordan, Miami (6-3, 244)
4. *Hunter Long, Boston College (6-5, 255)
5. *Tommy Tremble, Notre Dame (6-4, 252)
6. *Jeremy Ruckert, Ohio State (6-5, 255)
7. *Jake Ferguson, Wisconsin (6-5, 250)
8. *Brant Kuithe, Utah (6-2, 238)
9. *Charlie Kolar, Iowa State (6-5, 255)
10. Quintin Morris, Bowling Green (6-3, 250)

Offensive tackle

1. Penei Sewell, Oregon (6-6, 330)
2. Rashawn Slater, Northwestern (6-4, 308)
3. *Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech (6-5, 315)
4. *Jalen Mayfield, Michigan (6-5, 320)
5. Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma State (6-7, 320)
6. Samuel Cosmi, Texas (6-7, 310)
7. Liam Eichenberg, Notre Dame (6-5, 301)
8. *Abraham Lucas, Washington State (6-7, 325)
9. Spencer Brown, Northern Iowa (6-6, 310)
10. Walker Little, Stanford (6-7, 320)

Interior offensive line

1. *Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC (6-4, 315)
2. Landon Dickerson, Alabama (6-5, 344)
3. *Wyatt Davis, Ohio State (6-4, 315)
4. Alex Leatherwood, Alabama (6-5, 313)
5. Darian Kinnard, Kentucky (6-4, 345)
6. *Josh Myers, Ohio State (6-5, 315)
7. Trey Smith, Tennessee (6-5, 333)
8. BACK TO SCHOOL
9. *Creed Humphrey, Oklahoma (6-5, 330)
10. *Jackson Carman, Clemson (6-5, 345)

Edge rusher

1. Kwity Paye, Michigan (6-3, 271)
2. *Azeez Ojulari, Georgia (6-2, 241)
3. Gregory Rousseau, Miami (6-7, 265)
4. *Jayson Oweh, Penn State (6-5, 255)
5. *Joseph Ossai, Texas (6-3, 255)
6. BACK TO SCHOOL
7. Carlos Basham, Wake Forest (6-4, 274)
8. *Jaelan Phillips, Miami (6-5, 265)
9. *Myjai Sanders, Cincinnati (6-5, 259)
10. Rashad Weaver, Pittsburgh (6-4, 265)

(weird he doesn't have Patrick Jones - evals are all over the board for him -- PFF low on him too)

Defensive tackle
1. *Christian Barmore, Alabama (6-5, 310)
2. *Daviyon Nixon, Iowa (6-2, 306)
3. Jay Tufele, USC (6-3, 315)
4. Levi Onwuzurike, Washington (6-3, 290)
5. Jaylen Twyman, Pittsburgh (6-2, 290)
6. *Jordan Davis, Georgia (6-6, 330)
7. *Marlon Tuipulotu, USC (6-2, 304)
8. Tyler Shelvin, LSU (6-3, 345)
9. *Tommy Togiai, Ohio State (6-2, 300)
10. Marvin Wilson, Florida State (6-5, 310)

Linebacker
1. Micah Parsons, Penn State (6-3, 244)
2. *Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame (6-2, 220)
3. *Zaven Collins, Tulsa (6-3, 259)
4. *Nick Bolton, Missouri (6-0, 235)
5. Chazz Surratt, North Carolina (6-2, 227)
6. *Dylan Moses, Alabama (6-3, 235)
7. Jabril Cox, LSU (6-2, 228)
8. Baron Browning, Ohio State (6-2, 237)
9. Monty Rice, Georgia (6-0, 230)
10. *Merlin Robertson, Arizona State (6-3, 250)

Cornerback

1. Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech (6-2, 205)
2. *Patrick Surtain II, Alabama (6-2, 205)
3. *Derion Kendrick, Clemson (6-0, 190)
4. Jaycee Horn, South Carolina (6-1, 205)
5. Asante Samuel, Florida State (5-10, 185)
6. *Tyson Campbell, Georgia (6-2, 185)
7. *Eric Stokes, Georgia (6-1, 185)
8. *Josh Jobe, Alabama (6-1, 190)
9. Elijah Molden, Washington (5-10, 188)
10. *Greg Newsome II, Northwestern (6-0, 188)

Safety

1. *Trevon Moehrig, TCU (6-1, 209)
2. Jevon Holland, Oregon (6-1, 200)
3. *Shaun Wade, Ohio State (6-1, 195)
4. Andre Cisco, Syracuse (6-0, 205)
5. Hamsah Nasirildeen, Florida State (6-3, 212)
6. Tyree Gillespie, Missouri (6-0, 200)
7. *Talanoa Hufanga, USC (6-1, 215)
8. *Jamien Sherwood, Auburn (6-2, 222)
9. Richie Grant, UCF (6-0, 192)
10. Aashari Crosswell, Arizona State (6-0, 207)

 

 

[membengal]

FYI - my working thesis starting this process is that if they miss out on Sewell, there are Ts down to #7 on Brugler's list (Eichenberg) and interior blockers down to 4 on his list that would be fine in the second round for Cincy.

 

Also, he is way lower on Creed Humphrey at the start of this process than most I have seen...

[COB]

If we don’t go tackle, I love Micah Parsons.  Would be an amazing player, a centerpiece for Anarumo’s successor to build around.

 

Also to your footnote - absolutely Trey Sermons should climb some charts.  Dude looks and runs absolutely like an NFL running back.  
 

Finally, if one team ends up with both Parsons and Sermon, they should be forced to draft Josh  Jobe and Dylan Moses.

Finally, they can hammer down their safety position by grabbing Aashari Crosswell.

[membengal]

LouA isn't leaving, and Joe Goodberry and other sharps at PFF etc really hate idea of taking a LB in top 5. Like taking a RB that high at this point. I think Parsons only in play IF they trade back to around 10 or so, fwiw. 

[COB]

Parsons looked so good last year.  And we got trampled by the Ravens on Sunday.  We really need a great linebacker to deal with the AFC North. 
 

The Ravens could have set the all time NFL record for rushing yards if they’d wanted to.  It really was disheartening.

[HoosierCat]

Yup, it’s a deep class for OL. If Sewell isn’t there, it can wait.

Conventional wisdom at this point appears to be that there is no defender worth the 5. About the highest I see anyone going (and it’s usually Parsons) is 7. The only way I’d consider it is if both Sewell and Chase are gone.

That said, in combing reputable mocks I have not come across one in which both Sewell and Chase are off the board at 5. I expect one of them will be the pick, unless the Bengals brain(less) trust falls in love with someone else.

[membengal]

I found one mock where they were both gone by 4. It made me sad, and that is the scenario where I promise you we reach and fuck something up. If both are gone, that should be an automatic trade back to a team that wants the  3rd QB on the board...but I don't know that we are nimble enough to do the obvious. 

[HoosierCat]

5 minutes ago, membengal said:

I found one mock where they were both gone by 4. It made me sad, and that is the scenario where I promise you we reach and fuck something up. If both are gone, that should be an automatic trade back to a team that wants the  3rd QB on the board...but I don't know that we are nimble enough to do the obvious. 

The Bengals always overvalue draft picks so it would have to be a blockbuster offer and I don’t see that happening so...yeah. Not a good scenario. But I don’t see it happening.

The Jags will take Lawrence at 1. That’s as locked as Burrow last year. Even if they trade the pick, Trevor still goes here.

The Jets will either take a QB or Sewell/Chase.

The Dolphins will trade back either way. This to me seems as much a lock as Lawrence at 1. Some team will be looking to jump Atlanta for either the second or third of the big 3 QBs.

Atlanta will take the third QB (if NYJ took Sewell or Chase) or one of those two (if NYJ took a QB).

We take whichever of Sewell or Chase is left on the board.

[membengal]

That's what I hope/think most is likely. But there is a scenario where Miami stays put and takes Chase and Atlanta who talking about wanting to re-commit to the run and might want Sewell. That's the nightmare where the Dolphins and ATL don't trade back...

 

I guess in that case trading back from 5 as the 3rd QB would be on the board and that would be good, but...you know how we are in trade back...

[TJJackson]

1 hour ago, HoosierCat said:

We take whichever of Sewell or Chase is left on the board.

If at 5 we take Chase instead of trading down or protecting my quarterback, I will need a new TV, several new windows, and a lot of drywall work

Naturally, I will go to COB for referrals on the repair work.  Maybe Oogie is available?

Mem: I am really surprised that Leatherwood is on the OG list instead of the OT list

[membengal]

TJ - everyone in the draft community says Leatherwood is going inside at the next level. 

Also TJ, they should NOT reach for a LT at 5 if Sewell is gone and pass-up higher rated guys on their board like Chase. That's how Billy Prices happen...

Finally, FA is where the rubber meets the road. They get the RT and G they need - legit starters w/ a good history, then you should not throw anything if they don't reach for line at 5.

[AMPHAR]

PDJ from Athletic is bullish on the Bengals not messing around with rookies on the O-line.   He seems  confident the Bengals are going to spend on the right side of that line.

We'll see.

I wouldn't hesitate to double down on WR,  IF the Bengals take Chase/Smith and Trevon Grimes is floating around the 3rd pick. 

Or Pitts and Trevon Grimes.  

[AMPHAR]

You give me Sewell, Chase, Pitts, or Smith and I'm fine with it.  That's solid A+ all day.

 

 

[TJJackson]

Mem: we disagree

no surprise there, I think I am fair to assume that :-)

There is no guarantee that any of the prospects rated at about 5 - Chase and etc - will be any better than prospects rated at about 10, but we sure as hell need to protect New Guy,,,,,and not just for the next 2-3 years with free agents, but for the next 10 years with players we draft and develop

I will be less happy if they draft Chase than I was when they drafted Ross

[membengal]

In 2018 the Bengals were jumped for Ragnow, panicked and took Price anyway because the NEEDED a C, and the following pretty damn useful players were selected after Price in that draft in the remainder of the first round:

Isaiah Wynn (!) T

DJ Moore (WR)

Hayden Hurst (TE)

Calvin Ridley (WR)

Lamar Jackson (QB)

If Sewell is gone, I am not down with reaching for a T over higher ranked players. 

[Stripes]

Ran through a couple sims on TDN for shits and giggles. Note: I believe that drafting purely for need after the 3rd round or so is usually dumb since the hit rate is so low. Just get good players.

1 - Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
2 - Asante Samuel Jr., CB, FSU
3 - Jordan Davis, IDL, Georgia
4 - Talanoa Hufanga, S, USC
5 - Marlon Williams, WR, UCF
6 - Kingsley Enagbare, DE, South Carolina
7 - Austin Watkins, WR, UAB
7 - Tarron Jackson, DE, Coastal Carolina

~~~

1 - Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU
2 - Wyatt Davis, IOL, OSU
3 - Patrick Jones II, DE, Pittsburgh
4 - Spencer Brown, OT, Northern Iowa
5 - Charles Snowden, LB, Virginia
6 - Robert Rochell, CB, Central Arkansas
7 - Noah Gray, TE, Duke
7 - Chris Wilcox, CB, BYU  

[TJJackson]

IMO: some of the players a team NEEDS are also players who will also START and perhaps even STAR in the NFL

If we take it as assumed that Chase (for example) will become a star in the NFL but Slater (for example) will also become a star in the NFL, then gimme Slater

The Price example is fraught with assumptions, also....and the "look who was picked later" is an exercise one can do with almost any mediocre player.......there are always players who turn out much better or much worse than they were expected to be in the NFL.......the draft being the crapshoot it can most often be.  Look who was picked later, hey how about pick 199 in the 2000 draft.  Cmon.

Finally: drafting for need got us Burrow

[membengal]

On a hierarchy of best odds to be a STAR in the NFL --- Sewell and Chase are many steps above Slater et al. 

[membengal]

2 hours ago, TJJackson said:

IMO: some of the players a team NEEDS are also players who will also START and perhaps even STAR in the NFL

If we take it as assumed that Chase (for example) will become a star in the NFL but Slater (for example) will also become a star in the NFL, then gimme Slater

The Price example is fraught with assumptions, also....and the "look who was picked later" is an exercise one can do with almost any mediocre player.......there are always players who turn out much better or much worse than they were expected to be in the NFL.......the draft being the crapshoot it can most often be.  Look who was picked later, hey how about pick 199 in the 2000 draft.  Cmon.

Finally: drafting for need got us Burrow

My specific example of 2018 was the dangers of REACHING. And a quick look at the kinds of players they passed over to reach. I promise you Price was way lower on their board than the ones picked 21-32 - so they took a chance solely on need and look where it got them.

 

[TJJackson]

I guess we disagree on the probabilities here, Mem.

Im ok with that

I dont think I am wrong to want protection for New Guy first and foremost above all other considerations

I will say this - if the Bengals manage the extremely unlikely (imo) feat of signing a healthy top 20ish OT and OG age 32ish or younger to contracts of at least 3 years, I will move on to other priorities with the r1 pick.  and of course FA is pretty much dunzo before the draft (some would say by the end of the first hour of day 1 of FA), so by draft day, we'll know.  Mind you, I will still want a r2 pick devoted to OL in such a case as I am looking at the next 10 years, not just 3

side clarification: I do not want Trent Williams in consideration for signing after how he handled the situation in Washington despite his 91.1 PFF rating in 2020

side note 2: I havent really mentioned this elsewhere, but I am substantially worried about Jonah Williams being another Eifert at this point.  A lot of folks have stated things along the lines of "the best ability is availablilty" and not only do I believe in this thoroughly but to me this is greatly heightened when the player in question is an offensive lineman, since an OL must operate as a cohesive linked cog in a 5 man machine and being absent/out disrupts the whole machine.  I'm not quite saying we should replace him but I think it should be a consideration at this point given he appears to be injury prone 

[membengal]

PFF four-round mock I conducted - top four ahead of Bengals pick were Lawrence, Fields, Sewell and Paye

So - my choice was stay put ( I would take Chase if so) or see about trades - I was told by system that SF was interested in a deal - I ended up trading back from 5 and getting 12, 44, and 113

So, here was my draft through four rounds (PFF engine picking for all teams but Bengals)

Round 1 Pick 12 --- DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama

Round 2 Pick 37 --- Rashawn Slater, T Northwestern

Round 2 Pick 44 --- Marvin Wilson, IDL, Florida State

Round 3 Pick 69 --- Jaelen Phillips, Edge, UMiami

Round 4 Pick 106 -- Quincy Roche, Edge, UMiami

Round 4 Pick 113 -- Josh Myers, IOL, tOSU

 

Thoughts? You like that TJ? So much line but still a really good WR in 1. The line depth is quite something in rounds 2-4. The extra picks were nice...

[membengal]

And here's a sim on PFF where the first four picks were Lawrence, Wilson (QB), Chase, Micah Parsons

This time I did not trade down and the rest of the draft yielded this (computer picking for all but Bengals which was me):

Round 1 Pick 5 ---  Penei Sewell, T, Oregon

Round 2 Pick 37 --- Christian Barmore, IDL, Alabama

Round 3 Pick 69 --- Azeez Ojalari, Edge, Georgia

Round 4 Pick 106 --- Ben Cleveland, IOL, Georgia

Those are actually two pretty good mocks to compare which shows strength of trade and potential strength of staying put if Sewell is still there. 

[membengal]

And finally, here's one where first four went Lawrence, Fields, Chase, Sewell and I did NOT take a trade down offers and stayed put (my nightmare scenario for the Bengals on draft day) and it went like this (computer picking for all but Bengals which was me):

Round 1 Pick 5 --- Samuel Cosmi, T, Texas (highest rated T on the PFF board after Sewell)

Round 2 Pick 37 -- Jayson Oweh, Edge, Penn St.

Round 3 Pick 69 --- Creed Humphrey, IOL, Oklahoma

Round 4 Pick 106 --- Patrick Jones, Edge, Pitt

Note - I went T there to fit TJ's gimme-a-lineman request. If it had been me, I probably go DeVonta Smith but that's a reach too prob. I hate the idea of Parsons at 5 - too high for a LB in today's NFL unless they are Lawrence Taylor come again.

Of those three kinds of mocks, I am partial to the trade back scenario if Sewell gone...

[membengal]

I am positive that IF sewell and chase are both gone and only 2 qbs off the board, the thing the bengals need to do is trade the fuck back and get an extra few picks.  At least as of now - things always sort out post-combine and individual workout days, but we go into that process in my mind's eye with there being this situation among non-QBs...

Tier 1:

Sewell

Chase

Then a gap, then Tier 2:

Parsons, Smith, Waddle, Pitts, etc.

If we end up on draft night with a clear Tier 1 that is Sewell plus only one other player (Chase, say)  and a gap to Tier 2 among non-qbs - that's where I want the Bengals trading back if the two top tier guys are gone - they would have Fields or Wilson to dangle in that scenario and should be able to garner good picks to move back a bit...

[membengal]

A few notes, there are SO many lineman, on each side of the ball, that depending on your flavor, you can really attack in round 2-4. It is one of the reasons why I am not panicking if Sewell is gone and Chase is there in round 1. Course, that assumes the Bengals have attacked o-line in FA.  Then again if the Bengals do NOT attack o-line in FA sufficiently, and are on some level relying on the round 1 T to immediately step in and start, it's potentially rough sailing in first few games of 2021 anyway (especially if it is not Sewell and they have reached at 5 to fill a need) (those games are gonna be pretty damn important to ZT who starts on the hot seat).  

Since this is the draft thread - I assume you all know that the PFF draft engine is free, right? The Draft Network one is free too but doesn't allow trades unless you pay for premium. You all should play around with this on PFF - it really helps you start to get a feel for where the draft is deep and where it feels shallow etc. - and you can make trades and what not.

2021 NFL Mock Draft Simulator | PFF