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Week 12: Bengals @ Titans


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Good guys open as 1.5 point favorites on the road. That surprises me a little bit. I think Vegas expects Chase back.

It's a playoff rematch and an honorary AFC North game (or at least AFC Central) given the style of football the Titans prefer to play.

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When Chase takes a hard hit or hits the ground hard, then gets up with no issue, that’s when I will feel better.

Knowing he has a hip surgery in his coming future, I’m just hoping he remains functional through the rest of the season. I don’t want him to need to have that surgery needed sooner rather than later.

Sadly, I have my doubts…

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I think it is maybe 50-50 if Jamarr is active this week

If he is active vs the Titans, Id bet good money if I had any that he will get no more than 10 snaps on the field

I personally would prefer he take another week off to let the healing continue

Hopefully they get Captain America back this week to make up for the loss of Mixon

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So our remaining games are:

Titans

Chiefs

Browns

Buccaneers

Patriots

Bills

Ravens

Somehow the cowboys aren’t in there.  But it’s like 6 of the top 10 teams in the league and the Browns thrown in for good measure.  At a minimum we need to win 4 of those games.  5 or more would be great, but if we get ten wins we have a chance.

 

Let’s hope we can beat the Pats, the Browns, and the Buccaneers.  They are the shakiest on that list.  That leaves us with a must win - one game out of the Titans, Bills, and Ravens.  

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The Ravens schedule is brutal as well.
Brutally easy:

Jaguars
Broncos
Steelers
Browns
Falcons
Steelers
Bengals

Minus playing us, that’s a cake walk.
Have to hope for some bad luck or the division rivalries catch them. Outside of that, we are looking at a wild card.

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The silver lining in the schedule difference is that the Ravens wont be nearly as battle-tested going into the playoffs as the Bengals will be if the Bengals actually make the playoffs.  I think they are the 7th seed as I type this

FWIW

However......I still dont see the Bengals winning a playoff game with that gawdawful 1st half D

Gonna need to see some complete games being played before I believe again

The "T" in "TJ" stands for Thomas, and I am absolutely a doubting thomas at this point

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Said it before and will say it again.  EVERY game is a must win at this point.
They cannot afford to lose.

We play 5 of the 6 teams currently seeded higher than us.
Running that gauntlet earns them the opportunity to play 3 of those teams again to get back to the Super Bowl.
That is quite the undertaking.

Can't wait to get started this coming Sunday !!!

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9 hours ago, ArmyBengal said:

The Ravens schedule is brutal as well.
Brutally easy:

Jaguars
Broncos
Steelers
Browns
Falcons
Steelers
Bengals

Minus playing us, that’s a cake walk.
Have to hope for some bad luck or the division rivalries catch them. Outside of that, we are looking at a wild card.

Not for nothing, but Steelers/Ravens games are NEVER easy. And the Ravens offensively are in nuetral at best right now. Those division games are not simple for them. And, actually, neither is the Jags game. I bet Jax gives them a real scare and has a chance at the upset. 

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Well, we’ll see how the Ravens hold up, even with an “easy” schedule. Bill Barnwell at ESPN had some thoughts after they barely scraped by Carolina on Sunday. tldr: Lamar sucks lately.

Quote

While the Ravens won, their victory felt as discouraging as the losses we've discussed. At home against a Panthers team with an ineffective quarterback and an interim coach, Baltimore was expected to blow out lesser competition. The defense held up its end of the bargain, limiting Mayfield to three points and forcing three takeaways in the fourth quarter. The Panthers didn't have a single drive top 40 yards until their garbage-time sequence on the final possession.

The offense did not exactly hold up its end of the bargain. Despite getting tight end Mark Andrewsback from an injury, Lamar Jackson's offense scored just one touchdown on 11 meaningful possessions. That score even required a short field, as the Ravens cashed in after recovering a Panthers fumble on the Carolina 31-yard line. The Ravens averaged minus-0.11 expected points added per play, the third-worst mark any team has posted against Carolina in a game this season.

Unlike the other teams' issues on this list, this is not a new development. Jackson got off to a hot start, and he had a very efficient performance in a win over the Buccaneers in Week 8, but he has otherwise been struggling for about two months. Since Week 4, Jackson's 49.3 QBR ranks 19th in the league. Leaving rushes out of the equation, his 36.8 QBR over that time frame is 26th out of 30 qualifying passers. Only Mills, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields and Russell Wilson have been worse in that regard.

For an offense that can be so explosive on the ground, the Ravens have not been able to create those same big plays through the passing game. Jackson is averaging 6.1 yards per attempt over that time frame, ahead of only Kenny Pickett and Mac Jones. Jackson's off-target rate (17.1%) is much higher than league average, and his 10.5 QBR on deep passes (20-plus air yards) ranks 29th in the NFL, with just Kyler Murray behind him.

What's really disappointing to me is that the improvements Jackson and the offense seemed to have made against the blitz have fallen by the wayside. In 2021, Jackson's 46.5 QBR against the blitz ranked 26th in the league. Through the first three games of 2022, he had jumped to a 99.2 QBR versus extra pressure, which was the best mark in football. Since then, though? That QBR has dropped all the way to 33.1, which is 27th in the NFL and right in line with what we saw a year ago.

Now, I can hear Ravens fans screaming through their phones and computers. The receivers! Of course. Jackson is blessed with the least accomplished group of wide receivers in the league, a company the Ravens attempted to supplement by signing 36-year-old DeSean Jacksonin November. The veteran lasted nine snaps before suffering a hamstring injury. With Andrews sidelined, Baltimore's top pass-catchers were rookie Isaiah Likely, Devin Duvernay and Demarcus Robinson, the latter of whom caught nine passes for 128 yards Sunday.

There is speed in Jackson's receiving corps, but when Andrews isn't on the field, Jackson has nobody to rely on as a primary target. Receivers have dropped 5% of Jackson's attempts since Week 4, the seventh-highest rate in football.

Injuries to the running backs haven't helped, either. After J.K. Dobbinsand Gus Edwards combined for more than 1,500 rushing yards and 385 rushing yards over expectation in 2020, both went down with torn ACLs in training camp last year and have combined for just six games since. In the meantime, a hodgepodge of veterans has combined to barely break the expected rushing average over 520 carries. Kenyan Drake had a respectable 10 carries for 46 yards Sunday, but 29 of those yards came on one play.

With the trade deadline passed, William Fuller V seemingly retired and Odell Beckham Jr. likely to sign somewhere else, I don't think there's some obvious solution coming for the Ravens. Jackson needs to play better, but he doesn't have much help at receiver. It's Andrews or bust, and that's scary considering the tight end was already banged up over the past couple of weeks.

All of this leaves me worried about Baltimore's ceiling. The Ravens have the defense to compete with most other teams, but can they do enough on offense to move the ball against the Bills? Can they catch passes against the Chiefs? Can Jackson march them up and down the field against the Titans? I have faith in the star quarterback, but after watching them flail for 60 minutes against the lowly Panthers, I have to admit that I expected more. Even worse, it feels like the Ravens' offensive problems under Greg Roman are getting worse, not better.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/insider/story/_/id/35071280/nfl-contenders-exposed-concern-jets-giants-vikings-ravens-poor-week-11-performances

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Don't get me wrong.  I'm not about to place the Ravens on the AFC North pedestal just yet.
Simply acknowledging they have a MUCH easier way to get to the playoffs.

We have our own issues that seemingly get worked on during the game each week.
Nothing would please me more than to see them start putting some complete games together.
They are going to need them.

Thing is, I think they are capable of doing just that.
Thank you Joe Burrow !! 

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I've never been a big believer in SOS in the NFL.    The Dead Cat Bounce was real for a reason.    So many playoff teams rolled into Cincy and the game wasn't decided until the 4th and sometimes resulted in a loss.     You got a half way decent QB and a coach that motivates, look out.

Having "name" teams could very easily be an advantage for the Bengals down the stretch especially with a number of them at home.

 

 

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Trenton Irwin is now on the roster

They waived Prince to get him a spot

They had just pulled Prince onto the roster from IR so I guess that was necessary in order to take him off IR {shrug}

best guess is that Prince will be signed to the PS if he makes it through waivers

 

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