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Week 18: Ravens @ Bengals


HoosierCat

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The Bengals are the better team by a mile.

The unique mental health situation makes the game very difficult to project though, and I don’t blame them if the game goes poorly. If they are able to perform to their own lofty standard after just six days, then that would be a truly monumental feat.

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I just don't know that the outcome matters and we likely play them in the first round of the playoffs - 3 v. 6 ( I am assuming here a tie from the bills game) - I think both teams rest the living hell our of everyone and run vanilla schemes. 

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These guys aren’t Soldiers. While people like to say they the highest trained people in the world, that’s simply not the case. They aren’t taught to compartmentalize things of this nature and continue executing at a high level. We have no idea where most of them come from or how their life experiences will bear on this instance.

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If the Bills game is called a tie or a no-contest, then the Bengals only have one thing to play for in this game -- the 2-seed. If they win and the Bills lose, they still take the 2-seed in most iterations based upon the strength of victory tiebreaker (head-to-head is null, conference record is tied, and record against common opponents is tied). That's still pretty valuable if the whole "playoff game at a neutral site" idea is a pipe dream.

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I think Bengals coaches probably have already cemented the message of "Win and it gets clear".      The Ravens also have a tough message because a win doesn't necessarily do them any good as it stands right now.   They could go all out, win the game and still be a wild card team (Either by a declaration of no contest or Bengals win in make up game).     I could see the Ravens folding this week then gearing up for whatever happens in Wild Card round. 

 

 

 

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We should start to get some clarity today. Big question is Lamar. Harbaugh said yesterday that he was just following Jackson and the doctors and offered no opinion on if/when he'd return. Jackson hasn't so much as practiced once in the last four weeks so it looks like Huntley Sunday, but again we should get more clarity on that today.

No updates on the Bengals site yet.

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Not that it's the be all, end all concerning this conversation, but the ESPN Playoff Machine is currently treating the week 17 Bengals/Bills game like it didn't happen.
I would think the NFL would be reluctant to go in that direction or at least announcing they are going in that direction due to one fact.
The games for the Chiefs, Bengals and Bills would have very little meaning.  Those 3 teams are locked into those seeds, with only a little jockeying between them possible.
The Bengals would have no path to the #1 seed, only #2 at best.  They could play nothing but practice squad guys, lose by 50 and do no worse than #3.

It really makes me wonder how the NFL is going to handle this.  The Chiefs and Raiders play on Saturday, with the Bengals game and Bills games going on Sunday.
If KC wins, no matter what happens in the Bengals/Ravens or the Bills/Patriots games it will be Chiefs, Bills, Bengals in that seeding order.

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I think the league will be silent on the week 17 game status as it relates to the playoffs.   Declaring it "no contest" this week creates a lot of drama in several spots while Hamlin is still in critical condition.

The major wrench in the works will be IF the Bengals lose in Week 18.   I think if they win; then the league can manage the seeding somehow. 

I think the easiest scenario for the league is if KC wins, Bengals win, Buffalo loses.     That isolates the drama between 2 and 3 seeds and they could potentially kick that can down the road after the wild card results play out.  

Slightly more difficult scenarios are All 3 win or KC loses with Buffalo/Bengals win.    That's manageable but creates drama to the rightful owner of the No. 1 seed and who should get the "bye".    If KC wins bengals are gone, but if Buffalo wins they can lay claim to 1 seed.

The game will have to be played if Bengals lose.  IMO, they simply can not award or deny Baltimore the division championship.   Both teams deserve to have that settled on the field.   But then Buffalo might not care pending their result.    Messy scenario here.

 

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Jackson a no show at Ravens practice today.. Huntley didn't throw during the period the press was allowed to watch practice.

https://www.baltimorebeatdown.com/2023/1/4/23539260/ravens-practice-report-1-4-lamar-jackson-out-tyler-huntley-limited-marcus-peters-returns

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I think it’s to be expected that six days (currently two days) is not sufficient to get past things. They’ll do their best.

My main concern would be players playing tentatively and increasing the probability of injuries. The team has such strong leadership though that I am optimistic.

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Are they ready? Are they going to hesitant? Are there other concerns we aren’t aware of?

To be honest, none of it matters. They are playing at 1pm Sunday. Do your best and see what happens.

Again, if they aren’t concerned about 2 or 3, then don’t play your starters and give them the extra time. 

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