Offseason Thoughts

[Stripes]

I wouldn't trade Bates this year when they can still tag him again and do it next year -- but if they aren't going to get a deal done, they should absolutely pursue a trade. However, I don't think anyone is ever giving the Bengals a first round pick for a safety.

[ArmyBengal]

Stranger things have happened.  The Seahawks gave two 1st rounders for Adams and he was due a massive contract.
Bates is 25 I think, in his prime and one of the best in the league.  

Don't get me wrong, I would rather keep Jessie and feel he is a big piece of what this defense does.
However, if there can't be a deal to be had, they are better off trading him instead of waiting for some 3rd round comp pick.

Then the other question teams have to ask themselves is...
Would Bates present as something better than what a team could expect with their current pick position?

Anyway, just spitballing to further the discussion...

[AMPHAR]

They got two trade candidates, IMO.  Bates and Boyd.   I really wouldn't trade either of them unless some team completely knocked your socks off with an offer.    

I think Bates is pushing the limits of his cap number.   He's a good player but he's always been one of those players you need some PFF service to tell you he's elite.   The lack of big plays is the weak point,IMO.         

 

[HoosierCat]

I would absolutely listen to offers on both players. And I agree with stripes here, if they aren’t going to sign him long term then deal him and recoup some value.

[redsbengalsbucks]

1 hour ago, ArmyBengal said:

I made mention of Jessie Bates the other day and am left wondering...

Would anyone consider trading him ??
Lets say they could get a 1st this year and another early rounder next year ??

Take it and I really like Bates

[TJJackson]

If Bates has told the FO he is departing next year OR its 18M/Y or nothing, very sadly, yes, I'd absolutely trade him now

The max money thing has been a big disappointment to me.  At some point, a player makes enough where another x Million isnt going to make their life notably better or more secure 

I love Bates and will always appreciate what he has given us on the field, but if he doesn't want to be here despite the possibility of another championship run or has decided that its more important he be paid max money than the team be able to afford to put additional good players around him, ah well, get what we can and move on

A r1 this year and a r2 (even a 3) next year would absolutely be enough under those specific circumstances

If on the other hand he does want to be here and the money holdup is more on his agent than on Bates, then I'd want to keep him, as I think a known young talent like his exceeds the unknown value of a 1 and a 3

 

[HoosierCat]

RIP Dwayne. Schefter:

Quote

Dwayne Haskins, a standout at Ohio State before struggling to catch on with Washington and Pittsburgh in the NFL, died this morning when he got hit by a car in South Florida, per his agent Cedric Saunders. Haskins would have turned 25 years old on May 3.

24 years old. Jesus…

[ArmyBengal]

That’s sucks.

So young. 24? Damn…

[AMPHAR]

That’s horrible.  RIP

[HoosierCat]

On a slightly brighter note, you go Homer! I hope at 95 I’m still making it out to games.

https://twitter.com/dan_hoard/status/1512894027481468942?s=21&t=1aw5CaAM7Nyl2vLTMSvj0g

[ArmyBengal]

Maybe I missed it but Higgins is at opening day with his left arm in a sling.  Heal up fast big man !!

[Stripes]

Yep, he had surgery for a lingering in-season injury. Should be a-okay.

[redsbengalsbucks]

1 hour ago, ArmyBengal said:

Maybe I missed it but Higgins is at opening day with his left arm in a sling.  Heal up fast big man !!

I feel for him, I’m seven weeks into recovery from left shoulder rotator cuff surgery.

[ArmyBengal]

Get better soon !!

[ArmyBengal]

Sorry, but this is fun…

https://stripehype.com/2022/04/20/bengals-3-trade-packages-jessie-bates/

[COB]

Rotator cuff surgery is no joke, best of luck and I hope you make a full recovery.  

[HoosierCat]

14 hours ago, ArmyBengal said:

Sorry, but this is fun…

https://stripehype.com/2022/04/20/bengals-3-trade-packages-jessie-bates/

If they aren't going to re-sign him long term, then yes, trade him. As to these suggestions, the Lions deal-- No. 34 and a bust -- seems light. OTOH, I don't think Bates plus a fourth is going to pry the 12th overall pick from Minny. Would love it but they aren't that dumb. The Cowboys deal seems about right.

[ArmyBengal]

My thought is the same. 
Why let the guy walk next year which will likely return a 3rd comp pick, when he could be traded for more now?
I love Bates and would rather him stick around, but as always, they can't pay everyone and there are more to come.
The Bengals are going to have to be smart with their spending in the future and hitting in the draft.

With the Lions pick, Okudah is a question mark, but boy I loved that kid coming out of Ohio State.  He's had some tough breaks.
The 34th pick would still be solid if they wanted to still address the safety position.  Can't forget that Vonn Bell is an UFA after this season.

The Cowboys giving up both a 1st and 4th would be nice as well.  I made mention previously about how deep this draft is and that 4th rounder is gold.

The Vikings giving up #12 would be amazing, but agree that I think the Bengals may need to give more to get there.
Top flight CB, 3T of your choosing, that Edge rusher you had no shot at with #31 ??  Take your pick...

All that being said, I have no visions of that happening.
I'm not saying the Bengals are wrong, but this would come as a shock to see the front office pull off something like this.

[HoosierCat]

My facebook notifications tell me today marks the 64th birthday of one William David Broome.

Happy birthday, Billy, wherever you are. Rest in peace.

And boobies.

[ArmyBengal]

Indeed Hoosier.

A big Happy Birthday to my brother in arms.

[ArmyBengal]

I saw where the Hall of Fame is increasing senior candidates from 1 per year to 3 for the next three years.

Maybe they could do the right thing and finally get Kenny Anderson in that joint !!

[redsbengalsbucks]

29 minutes ago, ArmyBengal said:

I saw where the Hall of Fame is increasing senior candidates from 1 per year to 3 for the next three years.

Maybe they could do the right thing and finally get Kenny Anderson in that joint !!

Riley and bug Willie also

[TJJackson]

It sounds like Dehner just put out a good article on various Bengals matters

If anyone could post the parts about Carman and Linderbaum, I'd love to read it

[membengal]

It was a part of their 5-part series on draft needs/hierarchy. They had five great columns this week. Today's was on o-line.

https://theathletic.com/3263773/2022/04/22/bengals-draft-strategy-why-tyler-linderbaum-isnt-an-ideal-fit-and-mid-round-options-are/

Quote

 

Editor’s note: In this five-part series, Paul Dehner Jr. and Jay Morrison take a deep dive into the Bengals’ draft strategy by taking stock of the neediest position groups and addressing where priority, talent and fit intersect. We’re analyzing the roster through the eyes of the team with trends, analytics, sleepers, bold moves and also opinions from our draft guru, Dane Brugler.

Release schedule
• Monday: Defensive back
• Tuesday: Defensive line
• Wednesday: Tight end
• Thursday: Wide receiver
• Friday: Offensive line

Positional priority
No. 5. The Bengals have added three starters to the offensive line this offseason. They drafted three players last year they still like. Even with all that investment, there’s room for one more piece to the puzzle from this draft. The left guard spot is wide open for the taking. It could go to 2022 second-round pick Jackson Carman or another in-house candidate, but a pick from the first two days of this draft would be given an opportunity to start on opening day. If that player was a better fit at center, the Bengals could easily move current center Ted Karras to guard given his flexibility there and feel great about it.

Under contract through …
2022

• OT Jonah Williams (24): Bengals have to make a decision on his fifth-year option (projects to $12.6 million) by May 2. If they pick it up, he will be signed through 2023.
• C Lamont Galliard (26): Journeyman looking to latch on the practice squad.

2023

• OG Hakeem Adeniji (24): Came back from injury to assume a starting job and struggled during the playoff run. Hopes for a fully healthy offseason and eyes to compete for the guard spot.
• OT Isaiah Prince (24): Earned a swing tackle spot in camp and saw first extended NFL action starting at right tackle down the stretch. He gained the confidence of coaches as a reliable backup.

2024

• OT La’el Collins (28): Star of free agency slated to start at right tackle and they hope he can be a long-term answer.
• IOL Ted Karras (29): Gritty, versatile, reliable free-agent addition slated to start at center but could move to guard seamlessly.
• OL Jackson Carman (22): Massive offseason for Carman to come back in shape, showing maturity to be a pro. He’ll be given every chance to win job at guard but will have competition.
• OL D’Ante Smith (23): Last year’s fourth-round pick was out injured most of the year. He’ll focus on playing his natural tackle position this offseason and training camp competing to unseat Prince as swing backup.
• IOL Trey Hill (22): Didn’t show well in limited playing time last year. The hope is for a second-year jump supplying offensive line depth at both center and guard.

2025

• OL Alex Cappa (27): Immediate impact starter at right guard coming over from Tampa Bay.

 

NFL trend
If you are considering the second-year jump for Carman, it’s important to go beyond NFL cliches and take a closer look at what results actually say.

Can Carman take a leap into a reliable starter or is he more likely to flame out in the same vein as Michael Jordan two draft classes before him? Well, inevitably, that will come down to Carman’s individual dedication to becoming a pro and making good on his notable size-strength-speed skill set. That doesn’t mean we can’t play the percentages.

We took a look at the subset of draft picks to play at least 500 snaps predominantly at guard in each of their first two professional seasons. When dating this back to 2015, it churned out 21 players.

Here is a look at their overall grade, via PFF, for their rookie and second seasons. The difference is listed with green representing major improvement, red major regression and orange staying generally the same.

For reference, Carman played 501 snaps grading at 54.1 by PFF.

Second-year jump for guards (PFF grade)

TABLE HERE I CANNOT PASTE

A few important takeaways from this project turning out nine orange, eight green and four red results.

1. This wasn’t exactly convincing evidence of the significant second-year jump. The average grade rising 4.4 points isn’t enough to change the foundational reality of who most players proved to be as rookies. Sixty-two percent of players were basically the same or worse.

2. A significant jump isn’t without precedent. The best comparison Bengals fans should point to would be Detroit’s Jonah Jackson, who went from the mid-50s to nearly 70 between his rookie and second season. That ranked 24th out of 90 qualifying guards last year, one spot ahead of Quenton Nelson.

3. Yes, a jump is twice as likely as a massive regression but considering the level Carman started at, that’s unlikely. It’s hard to see him making it to 500 snaps if he did play that poorly.

4. I do think Carman is a unique case with so much of his improvement being about dedication, conditioning and maturity. Also, add in the veteran presence of Cappa and Karras on the interior, in particular, to help him fall into line and find better examples of habits to emulate. Adding leadership to the offensive line was a big part of the Bengals’ offseason plan and helping young players like Carman along was part of that equation.

Recent draft history
2021

• R2 (46): Jackson Carman, Clemson
• R4 (139): D’Ante Smith, East Carolina
• R6 (190): Trey Hill, Georgia

2020

• R6 (180): Hakeem Adeniji, Kansas

2019

• R1 (11): Jonah Williams, Alabama
• R4 (136): Michael Jordan, Ohio State

2018

• R1 (21): Billy Price, Ohio State
• R7 (252): Rod Taylor, Mississippi

2017

• R5 (176): J.J. Dielman, Utah

Key variable
Let’s talk about Tyler Linderbaum.

The Iowa center and Rimington Award winner (nation’s top center) has been the hot name associated with the Bengals in mock drafts for months. Cincinnati could select him, move Karras to left guard and call the line transformation complete. He’s a top-20 overall player by some draft pundit estimations, a scheme fit in the zone run game and presents a long line of checked boxes from a character standpoint.

Here’s why it’s unlikely.

The one knock on Linderbaum would be his size (6-2, 296) with short arms (31 7/8) and questionable strength holding up against bigger nose tackles in pass protection. Those are not minor dings for the makeup of this line and offense. They spent the entire offseason focused on solidifying the pocket up the middle for Joe Burrow. It’s the most important element of protection to making this offense go. Would they use a first-round pick on a player whose flaw is the Bengals’ most important requirement?

Consider the profile of all the interior offensive linemen the Bengals have invested in or drafted under head coach Zac Taylor with significant resources.

IOL investment physical profiles

TABLE HERE I CANNOT PASTE

Linderbaum would be an obvious outlier to the pattern we’ve seen from Taylor and director of player personnel Duke Tobin. You can make an argument they should be open to new patterns considering some of the results, but preferences are clear. They just aren’t going to value his rare athleticism in the run game as much if it comes at the expense of holding up at the point of attack. Again, perhaps they should, but there’s no indication they will.

Bengals fans will be tracking Linderbaum’s career, without question. He will likely be a huge success for whatever team ends up selecting him given his impressive profile, but the fit in Cincinnati doesn’t make as much sense as many suggest — specifically in the first round placed up against significant needs at premium positions on defense.

PFF college research
If the Bengals are targeting interior offensive linemen who can hold the pocket and also perform well with the wide zone run scheme, you can pinpoint specific targets projected to the first three rounds through their filtered grades for specialized situations.

By looking just at true pass set protection grade and zone run grade, we can look at players who topped at least a 75 grade in each. We’ve attached Mike Renner’s PFF big board rank along with Dan Brugler’s PFF big board rank.

IOL 75+ grade PFF true pass set/zone run
Tyler Linderbaum
Iowa
82.9
96.1
16
19
Zion Johnson
Boston College
76.8
78.6
24
22
Kenyon Green
Texas A&M
83.5
93.2
39
27
Luke Goedeke
Central Michigan
79.8
91.8
62
76
Darian Kinnard
Kentucky
86.1
91.2
79
52
Sean Rhyan
UCLA
79.1
76.7
90
94
The usual suspects are in play at the top of the draft, but keep an eye on Luke Goedeke, who specifically offers the center/guard versatility that would hit the Bengals well (though short arms are a knock there as well).

Relative Athletic Score report
A favorite name to rise into sleeper conversation has been Wake Forest’s Zach Tom. The versatile linemen can play all five positions, but Brugler projects him to center in the NFL. His versatility comes based on his extreme athleticism.

His 9.59 RAS was one of the top scores among this year’s class of linemen for tackles, but he actually scored a perfect 10 when compared among centers.

Who was the perfect 10 center from last year’s draft? The Chiefs’ steal of the draft, Creed Humphrey, selected at 63 overall. He graded as the top center in football last year, via PFF, allowing only one sack.

Tom also entered the impressive club of those who ran a sub-4.47 short shuttle. A statistic Josh Norris has outlined in-depth in recent years.

Sleepers to track
G Ed Ingram, LSU. You can’t leave any Tigers from the 2019-20 championship team off the board, right? Ingram comes with all the physical tools and rose into a leadership role as a senior. His 2018 arrest will be a red flag. Guess who would know Ingram’s personality and situation as well as anyone? Mr. Burrow himself. If he vouches for him and the dismissed aggravated sexual assault charges are not enough to take him off the board, he could make sense in the third or fourth round.

G/C Luke Fortner, Kentucky. Owns the ability to play guard and center, having done both at a high level for the Wildcats. Mostly projects to center checking all the physical boxes and bringing top-tier intangibles with him as well as a team captain on pace to notch three degrees in Lexington. Battle-tested in the SEC as a first-team all-conference player. In play with the second or third-round pick.

Bold move
Using the first-round selection on another offensive lineman would be bold, indeed. Nothing would cement an offseason that has been defined by fixing the offensive line more than placing a fourth huge chip on that group. If Zion Johnson is there, that would be who you could see landing in Cincinnati. His arrival would be a message to the rest of the league that the Bengals are not messing around when it comes to letting Burrow cook.

Dane Brugler’s background
There’s so much to love about Johnson, who would be the top offensive player on the Bengals’ realistic board, in our opinion (although, he might not be realistic with him potentially even going in the teens). Brugler ranks him 22 overall and explains with these nuggets that standout as Bengals’ dream traits as part of his report of the Boston College guard:

“Coachable and studious and it shows on game day with his understanding of how to attack defenders (NFL scout: ‘This guy is razor-sharp … one of the more impressive interviews I did this year.’) … two-time team captain with a smart, focused personality … durable and didn’t miss a game the last five years, playing in 58 straight games … logged double-digit starts at three different offensive line positions. Overall, Johnson will occasionally lose his balance, but his combination of play strength, muscle twitch, and reaction skills help him sustain as both a pass and run blocker. He has the talent to carve out a decade-long career as an interior NFL blocker.”

They said it
NFL Network lead analyst Daniel Jeremiah asked about taking interior offensive linemen late in the first round (the question was specifically about the Cowboys at 24, but applies to the Bengals):

“Well, especially if you’re looking for an interior offensive lineman, I would wait. I would wait until round two and try and find one there. I think there’s going to be some good options. There’s a good group of interior guys. I think if they want to find somebody that could potentially plug and play, I don’t know they necessarily need to do that with their first-round pick. I think they can do that outside of round one with this group this year.”

Where they’ll take one
Day 2. Look for an interior offensive lineman to come off the board to the Bengals sometime before midnight on Friday. For the sake of specific prediction, we’ll say in the second round and 63 overall. Use a second-round pick on somebody to compete with last year’s second-round pick, Carman, or show well enough at center to slide Karras over and see how the best five shake out. Should bring the best out of both sides.

Prediction
C/G Cole Strange, Chattanooga. The Bengals have not been scared off by small schools in the past and there is nothing small about Strange’s athletic profile or competitive toughness. He comes with a glass-eating reputation with intelligence and football character traits the Bengals covet. Has athleticism and style built for outside zone the Bengals employ in the run game. Dominated the FCS level as a two-time best blocker in the Southern Conference. And who better to mentor a young mid-round pick from a small school than Cappa, who made a name for himself out of Humboldt State four years ago. Brugler has Strange ranked 73 overall, but he might even be acquired with a third-round pick.

 

 

[TJJackson]

thanks mem :-)