2021 NFL Draft

[HoosierCat]

 

[HoosierCat]

Kiper and McShay are at it again, and in the process demonstrating once more the folly of taking Sewell at 6.

They do a three round mock, alternating picks. In the first, Kiper picks Sewell at 5, with Chase going to the Dolphins at 6.

When we get to 38, Leatherwood, Radunz, Humphrey and Cosmi are all still there (among others) but we took Sewell so now McShay picks...Louisville WR Tutu Atwell, a (per espn's status report) "pint-sized slot receiver (with) a small catch radius and average hands." Well, at least he returns punts so, the new Brandon Tate, I guess?

At 69 Kiper double dips,going with Notre Dame G Aaron Banks. Notably, Walker Little, Spencer Brown, Wyatt Davis and James Hudson are all still on the board at this point as well.

 

[membengal]

atwell is smaller than Marquis Brown. Which I didn't think was possible. That's insane. 

[HoosierCat]

No paywall.

[TJJackson]

 

[membengal]

That makes me as team Chase as you can get. Greenberg is a total clown. 

Best part of 2011 was that the Jets destroyed the Bengals in the pre-season in Dalton's second ever game action and Greenberg went on the air that Monday on Mike & Mike and declared the Bengals the worst team he had ever seen and that they would not win a game. And then they went to the playoffs.

Fuck him.

[Wraith]

Here final take on the NFL Draft for the Bengals.

They are going to have a tough pick at #5.  Ja'Marr Chase and Penei Sewell will both be there, IMHO.  ATL will either trade out of the pick or take a QB themselves or take Kyle Pitts, 99.99999% certain of that at this point.  No one is trading up to #4 to snipe us.

If they do what the pundits are suggesting they do, it will be a very good pick.  They will take the best player at the greatest position of need.  They will cement the oline for the next several years.  They will be lauded for doing the right thing and they will get an easy "A" in their draft grade.  When I started my draft prep for 2021 it was Penei Sewell or bust.  That said, the Bengals will have yet again not maximized their draft position.  They have stayed put and drafted the safe player...and I do believe Penei Sewell is a safe player.  I believe Penei Sewell (barring injury) will be a multiple pro-bowl tackle in the NFL.  I also believe there will be several pro bowl tackles coming out of this draft and I am certain that at least one of them is going to be available at #38.  There are 4-5 game changing X WRs (depending on how you characterize Jaylen Waddle) in this draft pool....that is it.  The best of them is Ja'Marr Chase who will certainly go top 10.  Devonta Smith will not make it past 10 either.  Waddle will not make it past the top 15.   That leaves Rashad Bateman and Terrace Marshall, III.  there is a 50/50 chance that one of those two will slide out of the first round but...first round isn't good enough because JAX, NYJ, and SF will pounce on whichever of those guys slips to pair with their new shiny QB and I am 100% certain that none of those 5 will be there at #38.  Is that the end of the world?  no.  But the offense will stagnate without a guy to stretch the field deep, that has to be accounted for however he lines up and whatever route he runs.  Not only will you not be maximizing Burrow but you also will not be maximizing your investment in Joe Mixon because teams do not today have to honor the deep field, no one on this roster is going to be able to consistently go vertical on them.  There is no one that can sustain deep separation.  Boyd can get separation because of his quickness but on deep routes DBs have the time to make up the ground so he is best utilized short and intermediate.  Tee Higgins has absurd body control (ala AJ Green), great hands and runs great routes, that makes him an ideal Z but he is slow by NFL standards and is easy to take out of the game if used as the primary.

So my ideal draft for the Bengals looks like this.

1 (5): Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU - no further explanation necessary

2 (38): Alex Leatherwood, OG/OT, Alabama - I chose Leatherwood because I believe he will start at LG.  He has experience at the position and has familiarity with Jonah Williams.  He also has the length and quickness to rotate to RT in 2022 after Reiff signs elsewhere.

3 (69): Creed Humphrey, OG/C, Oklahoma - team leader, captain.  Absurdly athletic for the position, can play multiple positions.

4 (111):  Elerson Smith, Edge, UNI - Here comes the run on defense, Smith is long, fast, strong....great college production, this is a Carlos Dunlap pick.  Smith fits the Bengals mold for Edge rusher to a tee.

4 (138): Alim McNeil, DT, NC State - I trade my 5th and second 6th round selections to get back up into the late 4th to take a player that will likely not be available into the 5th.  McNeil reminds me strongly of Geno coming out of Georgia.  Great player.

6 (190): Jose Borregales, K, Miami - Need a younger option, not worried about spending a 6th round pick.

7 (235): Shemar Jean-Charles, CB, Appalachian State:  Getting our obligatory CB.  Jean-Charles is a good small school option and a great option in the early 7th.

[HoosierCat]

What wraith said, times 100. I appreciate the effort, sir, you do great work.

[COB]

The logic is irrefutable.  It should be Chase then best tackle/guard prospect on the board.

National media figures clamoring for Sewell don’t follow the Bengals.  They don’t even like the Bengals.  It’s just they know we need linemen, and there sits a good lineman.  

[membengal]

My reasoning is the same as Wraith's on draft theory and why Chase makes sense in structure of depth of draft at o-line. 

In my case, I will take it one step further. I think Chase is clear BPA after Lawrence. I think he is rare. And potentially generational. Just want to put it out there so when he goes off for whoever it is that ends up with him,  it's clear what I see in him.  

[COB]

Man I hope you’re right.  It would be a shock if we didn’t end up with him.

Hopefully 4 QBs go and we get him, then it’s just me spreading career-threatening rumors about the top 4 or 5 tackles.

[HoosierCat]

28 minutes ago, COB said:

Man I hope you’re right.  It would be a shock if we didn’t end up with him.

Hopefully 4 QBs go and we get him, then it’s just me spreading career-threatening rumors about the top 4 or 5 tackles.

I’m currently photoshopping Sewell, Slater and Darrislaw wearing gas mask bongs. Will send ASAP.

[Stripes]

I've got Teven Jenkins hovering his arm awkwardly over an invisible girlfriend.

[Wraith]

5 hours ago, membengal said:

My reasoning is the same as Wraith's on draft theory and why Chase makes sense in structure of depth of draft at o-line. 

In my case, I will take it one step further. I think Chase is clear BPA after Lawrence. I think he is rare. And potentially generational. Just want to put it out there so when he goes off for whoever it is that ends up with him,  it's clear what I see in him.  

I personally think Kyle Pitts is the best player in this draft not named Trevor Lawrence but Chase is a very close #2 and Pitts will be gone at #4 IMHO.

[membengal]

Here is where I commit heresy - I am not as sold on Pitts as pretty much everyone else. Not saying he will bust, but not sure he's as great as they all say. I remember what Vernon Davis was to be and he measured and ran pretty much like Davis did...

[TJJackson]

I'd be fairly happy with the following

1 Chase or Pitts.  (Im not exactly happy here, just tolerating it.  Preferring Chase over Pitts slightly)

2 Darrisaw (yeah, I know), Leatherwood, Jenkins, Cosmi, or Humphrey (feeling better at this point)

3 Meinerz if they took an OT in r2,  or the BPA OT otherwise (feeling ok about the draft at this point)

4 DE Janarius Robinson

5 OG Aaron Banks or OG Kendrick Green or OG/C Landon Dickerson (falls due to injury history ONLY)

6 LB Ernest Jones

6 RB Elijah Mitchell

I am still on #TeamTradedown

[Wraith]

Yeah but Davis never ran routes like Pitts runs, the thing that breaks it for me is he had 0 drops last year....not one!  He also improved significantly as a blocker from 2019 to 2020 which shows he worked on his game...ALOT!  That dedication is something that Vernon Davis did not have until he was past his physical peak.  Pitts is the whole package, man.

[TJJackson]

I did hear it said today that Duke Tobin has admitted that there are offers for pick 5 on the table right this very moment

Offers, plural

Smokescreen?  Maybe.  With my #TeamTradedown bias fully on display here, I prefer to believe he's being truthful. 

My guess is Denver (Elway) at 9 wanting the last of the top quarterbacks as the source of one of the offers

Gimme pick 9 plus Denver's 2 plus either Denver's 2 in 2022 or 3 this year plus Denver's 5

Deal

I get Slater or Sewell or Bateman at 9 or maybe I trade down again knowing I can get Vera-Tucker or Terrance Marshall a bit later and pick up another 3 or maybe even a 2

[membengal]

Bateman would be a horriffic reach at 9.

Tobin said specifically they will not trade so far back that they lose a premier player.  So...who is that? Chase/Pitts/Sewell...you think they have one more in that tier? At best one more. At best.

So they can go no further back than 7, likely, or maybe 8, and still be assured of getting the premier talent they have identified. 

If they go to 9, unless they have Slater on that tier, they are taking a chance at missing out. Hell, worst case, nine might be too far back for even Slater if the nightmare of Pitts, Sewell. Chase and Slater go before 9 after a tradeback.

I am not on team tradeback. 

[Stripes]

I have some weird and baseless intuition that Michah Parsons is not an impossibility. I think it's about 0.000001% probable at #5 but becomes at least somewhat viable with a trade down.

Highly unlikely I know, but I thought I'd waste everyone's time posting this anyway.

[HoosierCat]

Yeah, no excitement here for a trade down. In a normal year I expect that I would be, but in a normal year after losing Lawson and WJ3 they would have signed basically no one outside a scrub or two, and they certainly wouldn’t have dumped Hart to ink Reiff to a one-year deal. So as usual they would have “used” FA to open more holes on the roster ahead of the draft and would need 4-5 starters to even field a complete team. But this year they’ve at least stayed about steady IMO so far and have an opportunity to grab a blue-chip prospect at 5. Unless you come at me with a Ditka-level deal, I’m sticking.

[TJJackson]

Justin Fields has declared he has epilepsy.........I wonder how this will shake up the top of the draft

https://247sports.com/Article/Justin-Fields-battling-epilepsy-informs-NFL-teams-ahead-of-draft-164485673/

I think #TeamTradedown just took a huge hit from this.......

[HoosierCat]

I’ll take this all day long.

 

[Wraith]

7 minutes ago, HoosierCat said:

I’ll take this all day long.

 

Absolutely. A+++ draft

[Stripes]

Milton Williams in the third feels like wishful thinking.