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Clinching Scenarios


HoosierCat

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Per PFT, while the Bengals can't clinch the division this week, they can lock in a playoff berth if all the following happens:

Bengals win. (That should happen.)

Colts lose. (They play Pitt in Pitt so yeah, that likely happens.)

Texans lose. (They're at Buffalo. Possible.)

And either

1. Jets lose. (They play the Giants so probably not.) OR

2. Broncos win (at SD so could happen) AND Chiefs lose (to Oakland in Oakland, which is possible).

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Worth remembering: Andy's got a lot riding on the bye.

Winning in January has even more importance for Andy Dalton: The six-year, $96 million contract extension Dalton signed in 2014 had $18 million of base salary escalators tied to playoff performance that could have increased the overall value of the deal to $114 million. $15 million can still be earned.

Eighty percent or more regular season offensive playtime and reaching the divisional playoffs with at least 80 percent offensive playtime in any prior playoff games in that season increases the base salaries in the rest of his contract each by $1 million. Another $500,000 is added for reaching the conference championship game if those same playtime requirements are met. It becomes a $3 million per season escalation with a Super Bowl win and the requisite playtime.

The Bengals getting a bye for the wild card playoff round has added significance for Dalton. Postseason playtime or Dalton's first playoff win wouldn't be required for his 2016 through 2020 base salaries to increase by $1 million to push the average of his deal to $16,833,333 million per year. Any part of the escalator that isn't earned this season will be available in the remaining contract years.

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I'm hoping for an Indy win in Pitts ..... hate them hate them hate them

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Me too scottish, but the Colts are doing it all with smoke and mirrors this season & I can't see them keeping up with the Pittsburgh offense. The silver lining is that a Pitt win could hand us a playoff spot. I'd rather have the loss but that would be OK too.

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5 hours ago, HoosierCat said:

Worth remembering: Andy's got a lot riding on the bye.

Eighty percent or more regular season offensive playtime and reaching the divisional playoffs with at least 80 percent offensive playtime in any prior playoff games in that season increases the base salaries in the rest of his contract each by $1 million.

LMAO.  I interpret this clause as saying Andy gets a 1 million dollar raise per season for the rest of his deal if he reaches the divisional round having played 80% of the regular season snaps.  That's it.

The clause, "reaching the divisional playoffs with at least 80 percent offensive playtime in any prior playoff games in that season..." would seem to indicate that he doesn't have to have played in a playoff game before reaching the divisional round.  "in any prior playoff games in that season," would seem to indicate that if there were no prior playoff games that season, he's still reached his escalator clause just by being in the divisional round.

Which means Andy could theoretically arrive in the divisional round, play like complete crap and blow the game, leaving us with still no playoff wins.  And he still gets a one million dollar per year raise.

Memo to Andy - if the above scenario plays out, just skip any off-season celebrity softball games.  

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6 minutes ago, HoosierCat said:

Per Josh, even if the Bengals lose to Pitt, the still clinch a playoff spot if either the Jets or Chiefs lose.

Many are picking the Bengals to knock off the Steelers this Sunday in Cincy.

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Obviously that would be the preferred scenario. :grin:

FO's playoff odds say the Bengals are a shoe-in, giving them a 100% chance of making the postseason despite not having technically clinched a spot yet. They have a 98.9% chance to win the division right now and a 65.4% shot at the bye.

FO gives them a 54.7% chance to make the championship game, a 31.4% chance to make the Big Game, and a 16.5% chance to win it all. Those are all the best %'s of any AFC team. Now a 9.7% chance of ARI/CIN in the Super Bowl and a 1% chance of MIN/CIN.

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On 12/2/2015, 10:06:40, HoosierCat said:

Eighty percent or more regular season offensive playtime and reaching the divisional playoffs with at least 80 percent offensive playtime in any prior playoff games in that season increases the base salaries in the rest of his contract each by $1 million. Another $500,000 is added for reaching the conference championship game if those same playtime requirements are met. It becomes a $3 million per season escalation with a Super Bowl win and the requisite playtime.

With the injury yesterday, Andy can probably write off another $3 million regardless of the playoffs because he won't hit the 80% playtime requirement. Right now the Bengals are on pace to run 976 plays; 80% would be about 781 snaps. Dalton is around 736 right now.

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12 minutes ago, cincyhokie said:

Steelers lose to the Broncos and they're likely done.  Jets will lose to the Patriots.  Jets and Steelers end in a tie and the Jets get the slot.

I don't see Denver whipping Pittsburgh at home. I watched Oakland giving them fits yesterday.

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17 minutes ago, cincyhokie said:

The Broncos aren't some lowly subpar team.  They're 10-3 with a really good defense.  It's very possible they can beat the Steelers.

Agreed. Bengals D was hardly in good shape yesterday, yet the Steelers needed a pick-6 and another turnover 16 yards from a score to win the game. Absent those two gifts it's a 20-19 game.

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33 minutes ago, cincyhokie said:

The Broncos aren't some lowly subpar team.  They're 10-3 with a really good defense.  It's very possible they can beat the Steelers.

Osweiler looked like crap, and when he did find a receiver, they could hold on to the ball. I feel the Bengals have a good chance for a win IN Denver.

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7 minutes ago, BengalszoneBilly said:

Osweiler looked like crap, and when he did find a receiver, they could hold on to the ball. I feel the Bengals have a good chance for a win IN Denver.

Well, Denver does have that other QB they could put in...name's Mabbing...Banning...Clayton...something like that...

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