Don's Crystal Ball Week 4 picks

[thedon]

THE DON'S

Crystal Ball

WEEK 4 PICKS

By DonCanabis/TheDon

Analyst/Godfather

CONGRATS TO THE 2010 DON’S PREDICTION LEAGUE CHAMPIONS

*** Mlmpetert from thewarpath.net ***

*** Sparty from detroitlionsforum.com ***

Like I said, week 3 is the most unpredictable of all every year with the highest amount of upsets every season. We had awesome matchups, we had cry baby call out the refs, we had others not owning up to their own mistakes and we saw what could have been the #1 highlight reel of 2011 get called back by a player not having his head on the game.

Quick Hits

• It’s funny how quick and unpredictable the NFL is. The only three undefeated teams in the NFL are Buffalo Green Bay and Detroit. Atlanta an early favorite is learning the hard way that you don’t trade your whole draft for 1 player - should have asked Ditka before pulling that trade. The dream appears to be over for the Eagles and his conspiracy theory QB. Isn’t it fun?
  
• I love when players come out of nowhere and completely take over 1 week, Torrey Smith the 2nd round pick out of Maryland had caught zero passes before week 3 and in just one game completely destroyed the Rams and made a huge contribution to his team. If Lee Evans doesn’t come back from injury soon he might not get his spot back
  
• I’m really impressed how 4 young teams are playing against adversity. The Lions didn’t look frustrated even after being behind 20-0; you always felt that they will find a way to come back. Oakland and Buffalo weren’t scared of the BIG teams they were playing and were back and forward the whole game and at the end when bad team’s fold they stood up, took the lead, and came away with the W. The other is the Browns: they might look bad at times but they have won back 2 back and that final drive by McCoy to take the lead against the Dolphins was perfect and poised.
  
• I had the worst week of my career straight up last week going 7-9, took way too many risks and none paid off. I still went 9-7 against the spread for the third week in a row, and the MNF game helped me win some money back so I only lost $20 this week. Over all for the season I’m at 58% and fell down a spot to 15th place in the league.
  
• There are two "The Goat of the Week" this week. The first: you have to be sick if you’re Corey Graham of the bears. I mean, his mistake wouldn’t have given the Bears the win - it might have given them at least a chance for a come back - but what it did do is cancelled one of the best special team trick plays probably ever!! It’s those once in a lifetime plays because you all know that all ST coaches will teach and tell their players to pay more attention during punts but having a holding call on a decoy play! It’s just stupid I mean who was he trying to block?
  The other is Dallas Cowboys Center, Phil Costa. I don’t care if the Redskins defenders were calling the snaps, you’re playing at home. If something wrong is happening, be a pro and adjust. 3 early snaps is just unacceptable and in such a close game it's unreal. The Cowboys were lucky Romo was the QB and he thinks fast on his feet. I don’t know how many QB’s would had saved that.
  

On to the games

Detroit at Dallas 1 Ovr/Und 46

I expect Dallas to be healthier this week against Detroit. It’s just crazy to believe they won last week with that team. Still, this will not only be the toughest front 7 they have had to face (which I don’t believe their banged up young oline can hold) but the first real good offense their defense has had to face all year so far. This game will be interesting, but with the injuries and how good Detroit is playing on both sides I don’t see the Cowboys winning this one. If you want to play it safe in this game take the Over on this one.

Straight: DET

Spread: DET

Ovr/Und: OVR

San Francisco at Philadelphia -8.5 Ovr/Und 44.5

The Eagles are finding it very hard to mask their flaws and that LB corps and Oline is costing those games and making his QB yell uncle!! I said it before the season I wasn’t high on the Eagles and I didn’t expect Vick to last injury free the whole season I just didn’t expect them to flunk so soon. San Francisco defense is playing good and even with Smith’s 2.7 yard average per completion came out with a win in a tough venue like Cincinnati, but playing back to back games on the road is going to be difficult. Take the Eagles even with the injuries, but this might be a little close.

Straight: PHI

Spread: SF

Ovr/Und: UND

Minnesota at Kansas City 1.5 Ovr/Und 40

If the Vikings could find a way to tell the NFL to only play the first half they would be 3-0. It’s just so weird how they have a complete meltdown when they come out of the locker room in the second half. Maybe Frazier should change his halftime speech. The Chiefs finally showed something last week trying to come back against the Chargers just to fall short when Matt Cassel pulled a... well, a Matt Cassel.

Straight: MIN

Spread: KC

Ovr/Und: UND

Washington at St. Louis 1.5 Ovr/Und 43.5

Rex Grossman looked like the Rex of old last week, making a key mistake with the game on the line when your defense holds the other team to FG’s you’re supposed to win. I expect Washington to play better this week. The Rams are hurt, even this being a "win it or ship it" week for the Rams, I can’t see them beating a good Washington defense.

Straight: Was

Spread: Was

Ovr/Und: UND

New Orleans at Jacksonville 7 Ovr/Und 45.5

The Saints came back last week and took the win against a tough Texans team. Blaine Gabbert’s debut didn’t go as smooth as planned. The Jaguars have a very good defense and it will be hard to cover the over against them. The Jaguars are 1-9 ATS in their last ten games. Take the Saints on this one.

Straight: NO

Spread: NO

Ovr/Und: OVR

Tennessee at Cleveland 1.5 Ovr/Und 39

It's starting to look like CJ is laughing all the way to the bank; these teams have two of the top defenses in the NFL. Cleveland has one of the worst run defenses in the league, so this could be the week we see CJ explode, especially after the Titans lost their #1 weapon in Britt. Cleveland is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games while Tennessee is 6-4 ATS. I expect a close game that is going to go all the way to the wire, but in a case like this I take the team with the better defense and more experienced QB. Cleveland is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games

Straight: TEN

Spread: TEN

Ovr/Und: OVR

Pittsburgh at Houston -4 Ovr/Und 45

Pittsburgh just doesn’t look like the team of last year. They needed their defense to come up big last week and win a game that they were trying their best to lose. Houston was meant to flop. They’re still young to play in that venue and take the win. Pittsburgh offensive line is hurt and slow and they’re facing a young fast defense. Arian Foster will be back this week, but we don’t know how effective they’ll be. The Steelers have been profitable as underdogs in the past going 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games take the Texans to win, but Pittsburgh to cover the spread.

Straight:HOU

Spread:PIT

Ovr/Und:UND

Buffalo at Cincinnati 3 Ovr/Und 44

UPSET OF THE WEEK

Buffalo is coming from two back-to-back into the wire games and have come out on top. They’re showing that they are a team to reckon with. The problem is that after two hard matches and playing on the road against a very good defense I believe it will be that awful trap game that happens every week. If the offense in Cincinnati can at least not make mistakes the Bengals should take this one.

Straight: CIN

Spread: CIN

Ovr/Und: UND

Carolina at Chicago -6.5 Ovr/Und 43

If Mike Martz ever learns how to use a halfback in his scheme, he might have something. The Bears Oline is still awful and is getting Cutler killed. It’s funny the game Cam Newton doesn’t even pass for 200 yards is the game they win. I believe the Bears didn’t read the "Buyers Beware" label when they brought all those left in the curve Cowboys. I haven’t seen anyone give up on routs and give the least amount on effort in a game like Roy Williams, wow that was an annoying performance by him last week. Take the home team in a close match.

Straight: CHI

Spread: CAR

Ovr/Und: OVR

Atlanta at Seattle -4.5 Ovr/Und 39

It’s weird to believe teams are in "must win" mode after only 3 weeks, but if a team just can’t afford another loss if they have any plans at the playoffs, it would be the Falcons. Playing in Seattle is tough and it’s very weird how that team is being run. There’s supposed to be a master plan behind all that madness, but it looks like only Pete Carroll knows it. Take Atlanta in the must win mode.

Straight: ATL

Spread: ATL

Ovr/Und: OVR

New York Giants at Arizona 1.5 Ovr/Und 44.5

This is the game that’s giving me more headaches. I really don’t like how either team has played. Even at 2-1, the Giants haven’t looked good besides their front 7. We have seen that apparently Arizona - even with a new QB - can’t win on the road. I’ve gone back and forward with this game because it’s hard for me to believe that the Giants can win 3 in a row playing like they have and the Cardinals losing 3 in a row. I think the heat is going to be a factor on this one so take the home team.

Straight: ARI

Spread: ARI

Ovr/Und: OVR

Denver at Green Bay -12.5 Ovr/Und 46.5

I feel the line is too big on this one. Yeah Denver is on the road with a 1-2 record against the Super Bowl Champions and a 3-0 record, but Denver has played three straight close games. Rodgers has looked really good, but their defense hasn’t been solid at all, allowing an average of 24.6 points per game. Take The Packers to win at home but not to cover and the over on this one.

Straight: GB

Spread: DEN

Ovr/Und: OVR

Miami at San Diego : -7 Ovr/Und 45

This could definitely be a trap game. San Diego hasn’t looked good the past 3 weeks and Miami is in desperation mode. The Dolphins haven’t played awful, they just have let the games get away from them. Take the Charges at home but not to cover on this one and take the under.

Straight: SD

Spread: MIA

Ovr/Und: UND

New England at Oakland : 4.5 Ovr/Und 55

It’s never good to be playing the Patriots after a loss. The Patriots defense is awful and we all knew that the Buffalo game could have been a trap game just because of how the Patriots were playing. Oakland has looked really good under Jackson and their only loss came against the same team in a similar way that the Patriots lost to. McFadden has been the biggest surprise carrying on from last year and showing that when healthy he’s worth the high pick it took the Raiders to get him. The bad news is that he got hurt last week. He will play, but I remember the banged up McFadden and it isn’t good. Take the Patriots and the under on this one. The Patriots are good for 35 points per game but I don’t know if Oakland would be able to contribute the other 21 points needed to cover with their best weapon not 100%.

Straight: NE

Spread: NE

Ovr/Und: UND

New York Jets at Baltimore : -3.5 Ovr/Und 41.5

We all know there’s animosity between these two teams. Rex has three teams he always wants to beat the Patriots (because well not only they’re in the division but usually is the team to beat), any team coached by his twin brother Rob (just to prove who is the top dog between them), and the Ravens because he truly believes that he deserved that head coaching job and wants to make them pay for passing up on him. This will be a hard-fought match of clash between defenses. The Ravens have been outstanding against the run so far this season, so expect them to make the Jets one-dimensional and take the win at home in a low scoring match.

Straight: BAL

Spread: BAL

Ovr/Und: UND

Indianapolis at Tampa Bay : -10 Ovr/Und 41

Tampa Bay played a hard match last week against the Falcons the type of matches they liked and won last year. I knew it would take some time for Collins and the Colts to get in a rhythm after, well, just picking him up from the streets. Tampa Bay wins, but they usually win ugly and the Colts are playing better. Take the home team but not the points.

Straight: TB

Spread: IND

Ovr/Und: UND

The Hot Picks

Record 11-7 63% 3-2 in Upset picks

Washington (league)

New Orleans(league)

New England (league)

Denver

Tennessee

Pittsburgh

Don’s Prediction League Leaders

1. BrrsColts 95-49 66% [coltfreaks.com]
   
2. Haynie 92 -52 64% [cowboysboard.com]
   
3. BnGBleeder 92 -52 64% [steeleraddicts.com]
   
4. JohnJet 91 -53 63% [forums.newyorkjets.com]
   

15.- TheDon 84-60 58%

[BengalszoneBilly]

WHOA! Don is picking the Bengals straight up this week?

[cincyhokie]

Crazy talk!

[BengalszoneBilly]

Crazy talk!

Well his name does include Cannabis.

[HoosierCat]

WHOA! Don is picking the Bengals straight up this week?

Kiss of death. Bengals lose by 30 now. Thanks, Don.

[thedon]

hahaha guys you make me laugh. You complain that I don't give your team enough credit that I must only see the highlights, That I don't know what I'm talking about because I pick you guys to lose but, when I see a match up that can benefit and say you will win, I'm crazy for picking you guys to hahaha.

Kiss of death I'm 2-1 picking games of the Bengals

[BengalszoneBilly]

hahaha guys you make me laugh. You complain that I don't give your team enough credit that I must only see the highlights, That I don't know what I'm talking about because I pick you guys to lose but, when I see a match up that can benefit and say you will win, I'm crazy for picking you guys to hahaha.

Kiss of death I'm 2-1 picking games of the Bengals

Dude, we're just shocked your picking the Bengals this week. That's all.

[cHaD711Johnson]

hahaha guys you make me laugh. You complain that I don't give your team enough credit that I must only see the highlights, That I don't know what I'm talking about because I pick you guys to lose but, when I see a match up that can benefit and say you will win, I'm crazy for picking you guys to hahaha.

Kiss of death I'm 2-1 picking games of the Bengals

That's an awful small sample size, Don.

[thedon]

hahaha guys you make me laugh. You complain that I don't give your team enough credit that I must only see the highlights, That I don't know what I'm talking about because I pick you guys to lose but, when I see a match up that can benefit and say you will win, I'm crazy for picking you guys to hahaha.

Kiss of death I'm 2-1 picking games of the Bengals

That's an awful small sample size, Don.

Only 3 games so far this year man but if u want 2 go back to last year I went 11-5 picking your games.

[derekshank]

You complain that ... I don't know what I'm talking about because I pick you guys to lose but, when I see a match up that can benefit and say you will win, I'm crazy for picking you guys to hahaha.

I didn't mind that you picked the Bengals to lose to the Broncos or to the 49ers. I didn't feel very confident about either of those games, so I had no problem with your picks. What I took issue with was your analysis. It was inaccurate and nonsensical. It echoed the opinions of uninformed fans who listen to national sports talk radio to make their wagers.

I know you don't claim to be a Bengal fan or follow them closely, so I don't expect you to be an expert... but don't come back here like you knew what you were talking about. You essentially claimed that Denver would win because the Bengals were sloppy and that Dalton sucks. Neither of those things proved to be accurate at all, did they?

Just because you won your bet doesn't excuse your crap analysis.

[TJJackson]

Well Derek, you know an intelligence test is not a prerequisite for posting here

All sorts of morons have posted here. Equal opportunity and all that.

Let him spew his blather all he wants - whats that old expression about opening one's mouth and removing all doubt?

[BengalszoneBilly]

All sorts of morons have posted here. Equal opportunity and all that.

Let him spew his blather all he wants - whats that old expression about opening one's mouth and removing all doubt?

TJ, I'm one of those morons. Don is no different, he just has his own style. I do boobs, he does bets. He's not a bad guy.

[TJJackson]

Fair enough, Billy

[Spor_tees]

All sorts of morons have posted here. Equal opportunity and all that.

Let him spew his blather all he wants - whats that old expression about opening one's mouth and removing all doubt?

TJ, I'm one of those morons. Don is no different, he just has his own style. I do boobs, he does bets. He's not a bad guy.

Would that make you a mammophile and him a betophile?

[thedon]

You complain that ... I don't know what I'm talking about because I pick you guys to lose but, when I see a match up that can benefit and say you will win, I'm crazy for picking you guys to hahaha.

I didn't mind that you picked the Bengals to lose to the Broncos or to the 49ers. I didn't feel very confident about either of those games, so I had no problem with your picks. What I took issue with was your analysis. It was inaccurate and nonsensical. It echoed the opinions of uninformed fans who listen to national sports talk radio to make their wagers.

I know you don't claim to be a Bengal fan or follow them closely, so I don't expect you to be an expert... but don't come back here like you knew what you were talking about. You essentially claimed that Denver would win because the Bengals were sloppy and that Dalton sucks. Neither of those things proved to be accurate at all, did they?

Just because you won your bet doesn't excuse your crap analysis.

Love it, Ok first never said Dalton Sucked my exact words were "He wasn’t awful but he got stuck and couldn’t move the ball", and I try to give a simple explanation with each pick, as is the column is over 13,000 characters in some board it takes up to two post and some complain that is too long I can give you a half page explanation of the reason why I pick each game like any prediction analyst would give you but yo wouldn't read a 16 post thread would you?

Last week when some members ( don't know if it were you) call me out saying that SF had a 2-21 record in ET, I answer why you couldn't take into account that stat, that there are stats you use in predictions and stats you have to dismiss each week depending on who is playing, because otherwise you'll have wrong input. Also every week you can find stats that supports your analysis and stats that contradict it, that's why you have to have your own formula and see what you see as the most relevant.

Again I always leave short comments on each games sometimes with stats, sometimes, with funny shots just to keep to fluid but at the end you will get some wrong, you will never bat 100% what you want at the end of the day is to get right more than you get wrong, ad have the reasons you picked the game right even if you didn't get the results. A lot of unpredictable stuff happens each week that you just can't predict.

now if you ask me each week to give you more information on why I picked your game the way I did I can surely do, but I can't have it on the article.

So GL to you guys today... And yeah I know if you guys pull the upset even if every sport show and every uninformed fan are giving the game to Buffalo I know you'll still will say that my analysis was "It was inaccurate and nonsensical".

GL

[BengalszoneBilly]

Buffalo at Cincinnati 3 Ovr/Und 44

UPSET OF THE WEEK

Buffalo is coming from two back-to-back into the wire games and have come out on top. They’re showing that they are a team to reckon with. The problem is that after two hard matches and playing on the road against a very good defense I believe it will be that awful trap game that happens every week. If the offense in Cincinnati can at least not make mistakes the Bengals should take this one.

Straight: CIN

Spread: CIN

Ovr/Und: UND

Holy S**t Don. You called it!

[COB]

Good pick Don.

[BengalszoneBilly]

Dalton throws for 2 INT's, and we still get a win. Incredible.

[derekshank]

Ok first never said Dalton Sucked my exact words were "He wasn’t awful but he got stuck and couldn’t move the ball"

What you said was "the best thing that could happen to the Bengals was Dalton getting hurt." Dalton had a passer rating of over 100 at the time... Quit back-tracking. You were wrong... and Dalton played great against Denver.

It's fine to be wrong. Nobody faults you for being wrong. In fact, I wouldn't even care about your s**tty analysis if you didn't insist on coming here claiming that you were right. You weren't.

[thedon]

Great Job guys enjoy the victor, I will enjoy my earnings of this week hit almost everything already made over $1,500 for the weekend and if I hit my teaser tomorrow and the Colts don't lose by 16 I make another $1,000. Thxs for the comments from the members that like it and get it. <Derek I can't help you bro I try to explain the best I can but we just don't see eye 2 eye, don't worry I know that I'm not for everybody, and I guess my analysis also sucked this week.

Good Job all again and best of luck next week.

[Saxon079]

Great Job guys enjoy the victor, I will enjoy my earnings of this week hit almost everything already made over $1,500 for the weekend and if I hit my teaser tomorrow and the Colts don't lose by 16 I make another $1,000. Thxs for the comments from the members that like it and get it. <Derek I can't help you bro I try to explain the best I can but we just don't see eye 2 eye, don't worry I know that I'm not for everybody, and I guess my analysis also sucked this week.

Good Job all again and best of luck next week.

Don't get too cocky your in the exact same place you were when you first made your bet with me over two years ago and I entered your competition. And that's behind me on the leaderboard. I'm two points out of first place and I probably spend a total of five minutes filling out your form. A monkey throwing darts at a board could probably beat you. Take your miracle week and enjoy it because you'll never have another one. And don't forget your place or your old signature because from where I'm sitting it still applies.

[Stripes]

Get me front row tickets to the Final Showdown in this riveting rivalry of message board spammers.

[BengalszoneBilly]

Get me front row tickets to the Final Showdown in this riveting rivalry of message board spammers.

I've known these guys for years and at different message boards. They're not spamming. They're just competing in a pick'em league.

[Stripes]

I mean no offense. Carry on with the fun and games.

[Saxon079]

Get me front row tickets to the Final Showdown in this riveting rivalry of message board spammers.

I've known these guys for years and at different message boards. They're not spamming. They're just competing in a pick'em league.

Billy the Don takes me to seriously. I guess I simply have a way of making people angry. He doesn't help himself by claiming to be an expert but yet can't beat a person that's never made a sports dollar bet in their life. I guess there's two winners of his game now. The one with the most total points and one that doesn't? Don't ask me I've never played a game where you didn't win by not having the most total points except golf. He is in fourth place with total points and third place with some other game that doesn't include all the points. I'm ahead of him in total points but behind if you subtract some of my points for some mysterious reason. I just think the fact that the first time I ever tried this I kicked his butt and he had to go with this signature that he was my BITCH for a full-year was more than his ego could handle. You know me I am more interested in irritating the guy than winning his game. Unfortunately for him I'm able to do both way to easily.