Iyer: Bengals will go 6-10 or worse in 2008

[HoosierCat]

Hey Vinny, can we at least get through the draft before you write the team off?

Bengals’ problems extend beyond Henry, Johnson

By Vinnie Iyer - SportingNews

The Cincinnati Bengals have finally rid themselves of repeat offender Chris Henry. Coach Marvin Lewis also says the team is prepared to “move on” if another talented wide receiver, Chad Johnson, doesn’t play for the Bengals this season.

That’s all well and good, but the problem for the Bengals—who would like to return to playoff contention in the near future—is that they have many more problems than a pair of moody wideouts.

Remember the playoffs after the 2005 season? Cincinnati had just enjoyed a breakout year, winning the AFC North and the right to host the Pittsburgh Steelers in the first round. During that game, Kimo von Oelhoffen dealt Carson Palmer a major knee injury, and the Bengals’ chances for consistent success went down with their franchise quarterback.

The Steelers beat the Palmer-less Bengals that day and eventually won the Super Bowl. In the two seasons since then, Cincinnati hasn’t sniffed the playoffs. Both Baltimore and Pittsburgh have won division titles, and Cleveland nearly earned a wild-card berth this season while becoming a better offensive team than the Bengals.

Instead of continuing a turnaround under the leadership of Lewis and Palmer, the Bengals franchise has regressed toward the futility of the nineties. It has taken much more than two troubled wide receivers for that to occur.

This will probably be Lewis’ sixth and final season in Cincinnati if the Bengals fail to improve on the 7-9 record they posted last season. That will be a difficult task, with or without Johnson.

The AFC North will be highly competitive. Both the Steelers and Browns figure to be strong again, and rookie coach John Harbaugh is likely to give the Ravens some rejuvenating spark.

Then there’s the Bengals’ bugaboo on the field: defense—which, ironically, was Lewis’ specialty before he arrived in Cincinnati. The Bengals’ unit finished 30th and 27th, respectively, in 2006 and 2007.

At least in ‘06, the defense was a takeaway machine. Last season, however, the unit failed to make plays. The Bengals were dead last in sacks (only 22) and remained mediocre (21st) against the run.

Now consider Cincinnati’s personnel losses during the offseason. Justin Smith was by no means an elite defensive end, but at least he was solid. Madieu Williams had trouble staying healthy, but he had flashed some potential as a playmaking safety. The team also was a little quick to give up on linebacker Landon Johnson. And while former Titan defensive end Antwan Odom was a big signing, he might not be as productive without Kyle Vanden Bosch coming off the other end.

The rest of the unit lacks impact players, though young cornerbacks Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph have shown promise. Still, the Bengals have a lot of work to do in the draft.

The offense has remained in the league’s top 10 after finishing No. 6 in ‘05, but it also deserves some of the blame for Cincinnati’s demise over the past two seasons.

Palmer has become less efficient for several reasons. The pass protection hasn’t been the same since the Bengals lost interior linemen Rich Braham and Eric Steinbach. Tackles Willie Anderson and Levi Jones have had durability issues. The big-play opportunities downfield that make Johnson happy haven’t been as abundant as they were in ‘05.

Both the short and spread passing games have suffered from the lack of reliable receiving back (Chris Perry’s injury was a big blow) and from the lack of a consistent, explosive No. 3 receiver (don’t forget Henry’s half-season suspension in ‘07).

Speaking of the backfield, because of the wear and tear Rudi Johnson has endured, he is no longer an automatic 1,400-yard, 12-TD back. He will be 30 in October, and injuries cost him five starts last season.

The bright spot in the offense remains Johnson’s good friend T.J. Houshmandzadeh. With a mind like a coach’s, Housh is an elite route-runner who always gets in position for Palmer to find him on key downs.

Because Palmer couldn’t connect with Chad Johnson on as many big plays, and because Rudi Johnson could no longer be counted on to pound the ball inside the 20, the Bengals would have struggled mightily in third-down and red-zone situations the last two seasons without Houshmandzadeh.

Chad Johnson has every right to be frustrated because of where his team was three years ago compared to where it is now. But the Bengals need committed players willing to play hard and set examples for a roster that seems to get younger every year. Whining and rambling in “State of the Chad” addresses on ESPN doesn’t solve anything.

As we’ve seen during the past two seasons, a wide receiver with Johnson’s explosive talent can only go so far to help a team with issues in several departments. Winning football teams still need strength on both lines and a leader under center. So if the Bengals were to trade Johnson, they wouldn’t do so just to unload his negative energy. They would also do it to stockpile draft picks in order to address several other areas of need.

I can’t see the Bengals winning seven games in 2008, even if even Johnson stays. It’s more likely that they’ll be in a familiar position for ‘09: picking in the top half-dozen of the draft.

Vinnie Iyer is a staff writer for Sporting News. Email him at viyer@sportingnews.com.

[HairOnFire]

I can't disagree with anything said, although I have my doubts that this wil be Marvin's last season as head coach even if the Bengals take another step back....which is looking more and more likely. Most of the things that have crippled this team are out of his control, and if this team looks less and less capable of being rebuilt seamlessly I have my doubts that Lewis won't be given another season to continue blowing up a roster that peaked in 2005.

For things to be different the Bengals will need to dominate at home this season, and hope to break even on the road against several of the very best teams in the NFL.

[GregCook]

I can't disagree with anything said, although I have my doubts that this wil be Marvin's last season as head coach even if the Bengals take another step back....which is looking more and more likely. Most of the things that have crippled this team are out of his control, and if this team looks less and less capable of being rebuilt seamlessly I have my doubts that Lewis won't be given another season to continue blowing up a roster that peaked in 2005.

For things to be different the Bengals will need to dominate at home this season, and hope to break even on the road against several of the very best teams in the NFL.

How easy it must be to write about the Cincy Bengals. Write one story and recycle it year after year announcing doom and gloom.

Its not hard to figure them out, imagine a team with Pollack, Chris Perry, Odell, Chris Henry, Books all playing well. They would be favorites for their division. They either draft good players that suffer catastrophic injury, players that can't stay on the field or pretty good players. Get a couple years of luck in the draft, luck with injuries and they will be a pretty good team in a couple years. But lets face it, the offensive juggernaut they built around Carson is fading away.

Rudi, Willie, TJ, Chad, Levi, Richie, will all be either retired or playing elsewhere by the time they replace those high picks that they've lost.

[cincyhokie]

Hey Vinny, can we at least get through the draft before you write the team off?

Exactly. The draft is key for this team to improve defensively and add to some of the offense. Don't you love how the Bengals begin to change their horribly stagnant and unproductive defense and they get criticized. Then if they signed all of those same players they would get criticized for making no new changes. Hey Vinny why would you re-sign the bulk of the players on the defense that weren't worth the money they were going to get thru FA??? Idiot.

Utech? Yeah nothing there about him.

"Haven't sniffed the playoffs"? In 2006 they were 8-5 and in command for a wild card. We all know what happened after that.

It's actually a fairly acurate article, it's just too early in the offseason to be making predictions.

And as far as the Browns go...they WILL NOT find the same offensive success with Anderson and they WON'T be surprising anyone this year. There's alot of pressure for the Browns to win the AFCN this year. If they start out slow that fanbase is going to kill DA.

[Jet23]

I, for one, will no longer defending the Bengals against the National Media. Many of their problems can be traced to poor management, plain and simple. If your only expectation is to be average, you will be lucky to achieve that on occasion. I really hate to say this, but looking at this objectively, this team is closer to a train wreck than a playoff team. This team REALLY needs a good draft.

[HoosierCat]

I can't disagree with anything said, although I have my doubts that this wil be Marvin's last season as head coach even if the Bengals take another step back....which is looking more and more likely.

Maybe to you, but not to me. I'm not ready to put them in he playoffs yet, but the absurd number of injuries the team was hit by last season seems unlikely to reoccur. We've let several non-impact defenders, while signing a good, young DE and our first pass-catching threat at TE since Schobel (and a better blocker than him to boot). Things look good on the Odell front. Retaining Stacy gives us o-line depth and getting Dhani back keeps arguably our best LB from last season around. Chunk Breshnahan is GONE GONE GONE. And with four top 100 picks (and 10 in total) in the draft, the Bengals are in a good position to fill needs on both sides of the ball.

As for the schedule...as always, it's all about the division. Cleveland is certainly spending and trading like mad...but they gave away all their high picks, as well as Bodden, who's made a career out of frustrating Chad. The Steelers' biggest move has been waving goodbye to perennial pro bowler Alan Faneca, while the Ravens--whose vaunted D aged rapidly last season--appear to be losing Ogden to retirement and may be starting a rookie QB.

Like cincyhokie said, it's a bit early in the offseason to be making predictions, but I like the way thing are going so far.

[Oldcat]

I agree...If the injury problems the Bengals have had with draft picks hurt, how much will not having a draft

class hurt the Browns? The have no picks till the fourth round, traded Bodden away, and now have off-the-field

trouble with one of the corners they have left. Having a stout run D may not help if teams can go over the top

on you with impunity.

[Pidge]

I think we'll be around 8-8. Maybe 9-7 maybe 7-9 again. if the running game clicks well in the first year trying to go with it more. That depends on how well the O-line performs though. Let's hope Willie et al aren't knackered again. Tough schedule, young secondary and, unless everything falls perfectly for us in the draft, a decent but nothing special D-line aren't really a recipe for playoff glory.

We'll finish above the Browns though. One tiny chink in that team and they'll crumble, IMO.

[Scottishbengal]

We'll finish above the Browns though. One tiny chink in that team and they'll crumble, IMO.

Here's to Burt Kwouk then

[HairOnFire]

As for the schedule...as always, it's all about the division.

No, it isn't. The key is how the Bengals play against the teams in the NFC East and the AFC South.

Regardless of which team is on top in the North you can almost always throw out the records because every team is capable of beating their rivals, and that's especially true of a Cincinnati team that routinely splits with the Steelers, and is capable of dominating the Ravens and the Browns. So consider a home schedule featuring games against those division rivals, a dominant Jacksonville team, a miserable Kansas City Chief team, and three games against Washington, Philadelphia, and Tennessee. Those latter three teams, despite having a better won/loss record than the Bengals, represent this teams only real hope of producing a suprisingly satisfying season.

The Bengals simply have to go no worse than 5-3 at home.

And even that may not be enough.

The problems come when you look at the away schedule. The Colts, Cowboys, and Giants are all decidely better than the Bengals and the Texans are no longer pushovers. How this seasons Jet team plays is anyones guess, but the Bengals will be hard pressed to break even on the road.

[Horsemen]

6-10 sounds optimistic.

[ShulaSteakhouse]

Don't you love how the Bengals begin to change their horribly stagnant and unproductive defense and they get criticized.

The problem there is that they haven't gotten better, worse in fact, on paper, same thing happened last off-season. So, I don't know why these posts touting the defense as "improved," at this point, keep cropping up, it's not accurate.

They lost their best LB, Safety and DE, and replaced them with 2 back-up/ST's LB's, and a DE who had a "career year" with 8 sacks, and has durability issues, and they spent a mint on him (I am not saying it was a bad pick-up considering they just need capable bodies with experience at this point).

Now, with a great draft and some luck, they can be better, but it's not a result of the Bengals' pounding the pavement and making a few moves to shore things up. In fact they blew two deals, which makes them look bad to the rest of the objective world, that generally thinks (understandably so) the Bengals' FO are a bunch of boobs.

You're just not going to see any accolades for the Bengals going into this season I'm guessing, there's no reason to tout them for anything they've done so far. They're bleeding talent and have lost control of their best offensive player for the last 7 years.

Just the way it is.

[kingwilly]

I will predict 8-8 on the high end and 5-11 on the low.

On offense, the running game will be the key. Who will carry the ball? Kenny and 3D can platoon and be effective. IF, and I say IF with the utmost caution and skepticism, Chris Perry can get into the gameplan, this team is better and Rudi is at risk to be cut. WR should have continutiy with CJ/TJ and the musical 3rd WR. Henry was gone for half of 07 and they survived. Taking a WR who can get in as #3 some and learn is smart.

On defense, my hope is that Zimmer and fresh schemes and approach make the difference in a game or two. Really that is what is comes down to last year. Losing in Seattle, Cleveland and at home to AZ. The D, and to a lesser extent Chad, lost those games. Winnable games. Must win games. Probably a total failure to execute on about 20 plays total in those games. Can Zimmer get 20 mor highly executed plays out of a moderatley changed defensive personnel? I freaking hope so.

ST - not sure what to say here but I will settle for another moderately average year from ST. I am not demanding big plays and returns but just don't give up the huge plays.

8-8 seems about right given the uncertainty and overall malaise of the franchise. 5-11 if the wheels fall off, CJ is sent home, Zimmer and his D gets bit with the injury bug and we draft foolishly.

Let me be the first to say, if we go 5-11, I would expect Carson to begin to look elsewhere in the league for where he'd like to play...like the Jets or Chicago.

[BengalszoneBilly]

I will predict 8-8 on the high end and 5-11 on the low.

I'll wait until after the 3rd preseason game. Too many things like the draft, Chad either staying/going/dogging it on the field or plain sitting out, the possible returns of Pollack and/or Thurman. To "predict" now is really closer to wild ass guessing.

That being said...I'm optimistic.

[COB]

It's tough to predict more than 9 wins. Out of conference schedule is pretty brutal. In conference?

I see the Steelers as being a team in decline, I think their coach is not up to it, and that safety didn't seem to be himself last year.

The Browns? Whatever it is that defensive coordinators figured out about Derek Anderson, it was big because the last several games of the season he struggled. At this point in his career I don't see him fixing it, so I'm figuring we're every bit of a match for them.

Nothing the Ravens have done so far in the offseason impresses me. We'll sweep them. In fact I see Stabby sort of turning into a Brett Favre over in Baltimore. He's a fan favorite with one Super Bowl to his credit, but as he ages and his skills erode, the franchise feels like they can't really move on until he's gone. He sort of holds that team hostage by virtue of his incredibly strong personality. For example, even though he can't play like he did in their Super Bowl year, he gets the coach fired, who, presumably, can still coach like he did that year. Seems backward. PS - they got raped by Goodell's NFL in that Monday night game against New England last year, and I think their loss of composure during the game and in the locker room afterward was very bad for them.

We're switching offensive philosophies and defensive coordinators. We're a team in transition. But I certainly don't believe we've lost control of our best offensive player. Carson is still here. And TJ was better than Chad last year anyway. Bottom line: If by some miracle Willie plays the whole season, I believe we'll win 9 or 10 games. If he falls, and if Andrews gets exposed as a pretender (in regard to run blocking), 7 wins.

[DesperateDerelict]

QUALIFIERS _

1) If the OL stays healthy - 2 wins

2) If Carson stays healthy and focused - 3 wins

3) If CJ plays, and we have a good 3rd option (WR/TE) - 2 wins

4) If our rushing attack exceeds 4 yds / carry - 2 wins

5) If Zimmer creates an attacking, intelligent 'D' - 3 wins

6) If we are strong up the middle (NG - MLBs - SS) - 2 wins

7) If we double our sacks (from 22 to 44) - 2 wins

So, if all that happens, I see a 16-0 season. No problem, right?

[BengalszoneBilly]

7) If we double our sacks (from 22 to 44) - 2 wins

I see your humor here, but the only way I can envision the sack total from last season to increase anywhere near this much would be with the return of Pollack, Thurman, and drafting a serious bad ass DL.

DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS!

[duus]

QUALIFIERS _

1) If the OL stays healthy - 2 wins

2) If Carson stays healthy and focused - 3 wins

3) If CJ plays, and we have a good 3rd option (WR/TE) - 2 wins

4) If our rushing attack exceeds 4 yds / carry - 2 wins

5) If Zimmer creates an attacking, intelligent 'D' - 3 wins

6) If we are strong up the middle (NG - MLBs - SS) - 2 wins

7) If we double our sacks (from 22 to 44) - 2 wins

So, if all that happens, I see a 16-0 season. No problem, right?

You just sent me into mid-season depression 8 months early. Using your formula, I'm seeing between 2-5 wins. Ugh.

[walzav29]

From the outside looking in it is easy to say the Bengals will suck this year, but in this article you can tell he knows nothing about Cincinnati. Rudi will be 29 in Oct, and as stated earlier were a missed field goal away from the playoffs 2 years ago. That qualifies as a sniff.

[kingwilly]

In fact I see Stabby sort of turning into a Brett Favre over in Baltimore. He's a fan favorite with one Super Bowl to his credit, but as he ages and his skills erode, the franchise feels like they can't really move on until he's gone. He sort of holds that team hostage by virtue of his incredibly strong personality.

...Stabby...now that's a good one. classic.

[HoosierCat]

As for the schedule...as always, it's all about the division.

No, it isn't.

Yeah, it is. The classic example being the '02 Steelers, who made the postseason by going 6-0 in the division and 4-5-1 against everyone else. The Steelers, Browns and Ravens are the games that matter the most. Always are, always will be.

[Sandwedge]

This is nothing more than our "let's kick the Bengals" piece and make ourselve feel like we are truly a writer... There is way to many variables in a season to say so-and so will finish here and there... How do we know that Big Ben won't break his arm and Pittsburg will completely suck?? Maybe Quinn has to start for Cleveland a couple of games... Our own fanbase needs to quit throwing us under the bus...

[membengal]

Given how brutal the respective schedules are for each of the AFC North teams this year, I actually think the division winner will be 8-8. For what it's worth.

[kingwilly]

This is nothing more than our "let's kick the Bengals" piece and make ourselve feel like we are truly a writer... There is way to many variables in a season to say so-and so will finish here and there... How do we know that Big Ben won't break his arm and Pittsburg will completely suck?? Maybe Quinn has to start for Cleveland a couple of games... Our own fanbase needs to quit throwing us under the bus...

you nailed it. consider this kind of article could be written for all but about 7 teams in the NFL. Just change a couple of themes and the team name and, voila, instant negative article.

[Pidge]

We'll finish above the Browns though. One tiny chink in that team and they'll crumble, IMO.

Here's to Burt Kwouk then

Bernard Manning lives!!