HoosierCat

Well, that seemed to be the perfect sentiment to kick off the first round thread with, Army! Now, don't screw it up, Bengals! (Oh, who am I kidding, of course they'll screw it up...)

FWIW I skimmed through Lap and Hoard’s podcast on da site earlier today, and Lap, who usually has a good feel for what they’re doing, was weirdly all in on Will Campbell. Obviously he won’t be there at 17 but I have to wonder if it’s not a sign they are seriously huffing OL glue early. Smoke? I dunno, but it’s a data point at least.

Chargers and Lions get the Hall of Fame game. https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/44816997/chargers-lions-meet-2025-pro-football-hall-fame-game

Yeah, he also has Harmon falling out of the first too. Given Duke’s remarks about wanting more picks, tho, I don’t see them trading up. But this would push down some other good DTs and safeties.

Dehner looks at the possibility of a trade down. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6300582/2025/04/23/cincinnati-bengals-nfl-draft-trade-for-picks/ tl;dr not likely to happen in the first, but very possible in round 2. They have traded down five times (and up once) in the second in the last eight drafts. So just for kicks, I decided to look at how those trades down worked out. In 2017, the dropped from 41 (where they could have had Dalvin Cook) to 48 where they took Mixon. So OK there. They picked up a 4th (128) for their troubles, which became WR Josh Malone, aka, who? So nothing lost, but nothing gained either. In 2018, they dropped from 46 to 54, in return for coming up from 100 to 77. So no extra picks, just a double swap. 54 turned into Jesse Bates, so A+ there, and 77 was Sam Hubbard, another A+ who would probably not have lasted to 100. This easily has to be one of the best draft trades in Bengals history. In 2019, they traded pick 42 for picks 52, 125 and 182. Those turned into Sample, Renell Wren and Trayveon Williams. Not horrible or anything, but nothing to light off fireworks about either. In 2021 they coughed up 38 for 46, 122 and 139. They could have had everyone's favorite FA OL this year, Tevan Jenkins, at 38, but instead at 46 they took Jackson Carman. Insert sad trombone sound here. 122 was Tyler Shelvin (reprise sad trombone sound here) and 139 was D'Ane Smith (trombone trifecta). I would have to call that a poor trade. Finally in 2023 they slipped from 92 to 95 and added 217. 95 became Jordan Battle and 217 was Brad Robbins. Battle has been decent and Robbins might still be here if it weren't for injury. Basically a nothingburger. So to sum up, hands down the best trade was one that didn't actually give them any extra picks, just a higher selection in a later round. In the other five instances they picked up six extra picks and the best selection was Trayveon Williams.

ESPN's Pete Schrager does his one and only mock of the season, based on his sources around the league. https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2025/story/_/id/44790164/2025-nfl-mock-draft-peter-schrager-first-round-predictions-32-picks-trades-buzz-qbs-sanders-ward-dart With several of the names commonly mocked to Cincy -- Campbell, Banks, Booker, Nolen -- gone, he has the Bengals going with Mike Green at 17. For whatever reason, the way this draft falls feels about right to me, and if they have to take an edge at 17 (and I think they will) Green is the one I dislike the least.

Right. But they signed Slaton so they’re only -1 at DT.

https://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/news/2025/04/22/hamilton-county-deal-bengals-paycor-lease-terms.html Interesting sequence there. Personally I would do an extension first, then talk about improvements, but you do you, HamCo. ETA: some details: Hamilton County has struck a deal with the Cincinnati Bengals to spend $185 million improving Paycor Stadium in 2026.

One thing to consider is just where there are still holes. If you take the FAs who left or weren't resigned or (in Hubbard's case) hung 'em up, then look at the FAs signed to replace them, they are still short one CB, S, DE and DT, and two OT. Of those, the DE (Sam). CB (Hilton) and S (Bell) were (or at least were expected to be) starters or key contributors. The DT (Tufele) and tackles (Smith and Brown) were reserves. So if I were betting, I would put my money on them drafting to fill most or all of these six spots, with the premium picks most likely to go to the edge, secondary and OL (since there are 2 open spots).

Fun fact: Bag O' Glass was the Bengals' first round selection in 2004.

Look, they only have 6 picks, so Freaky Decathalon is signed as a UDFA after a bidding war that nets him a five-figure signing bonus. Hobson writes at least three articles on the da site touting him and he racks up big numbers in the third preseason game, but doesn’t make the final cut and ends up on the taxi squad. Fans make weekly demands he get called up but it never happens and 12 weeks into the year he gets signed off the PS by the team that eventually wins the Super Bowl. He makes one big play in the playoffs and gets a ring.

My final mock: Round 1: Johnny BeePeeAyy. The Bengals have already stated that at 17 they will take the Best Player Available, and so they shall. That Johnny BeePeeAyy also just happens to play the position of greatest need for the team is only a happy coincidence! Any questions such as Johnny being the 4-5 player at his position selected while the top and No. 2 guys at other spots sit on the board will be brushed aside with cries of "infidel!" and "unbeliever!" followed by the casting of urinal cakes and burning yellow legal pads at the doubters. Round 2: CC Fallingstar. The organization will welcome CC Fallingstar with exclamations of "we can't believe he was still there!" and "steal of the draft!" Again, that Fallingstar just happens to play the position of greatest need they did not select at 17 is a complete coinky-dink. CC is available, of course, because of the dreaded Character Concerns, which may include domestic violence, alcohol/drug issues, motivational concerns, halitosis, dandruff and/or a daily McDonald's habit. Round 3: Major Wha'dafuk. Fans and draft analysts alike will greet Major Wha'dafuk with initial silence, confused looks, and then guffaws of laughter. Wha'dafuk will play a position the Bengals already have well-covered and/or will be a name no one has ever heard of who was considered a late-round/UDFA prospect. In either case he will be a wasted pick as he either won't be able to get on the field, or will stink, or both. Round 4: Mister Solidpik. Solidpik, who will likely turn out to be the player from this draft with the longest career, is a double-dip with Johnny BeePeeAye. As such his ability to get on the field is limited, despite often looking better than Johnny in limited action. In four years he will leave via free agency and become a solid starter for another team. Round 5: Snoozy Benchwarmer. Snoozy is an offensive player, probably a running back but possibly a TE or even WR, possibly from a small school. The Bengals will tout him as a sleeper. In reality he will never get on the field, though he will hang around taking up roster space for three or four years for no discernible reason. Round 6: Teamy McSpecialTeamer. Teamy will turn out to be TJ's new favorite player. A special teams ace, he will make an immediate impact there, but despite his position group getting gutted by injury several times during his career, he will never be given any significant time on defense/offense. Nevertheless, he will have a long, fruitful career and will probably go into coaching once his playing days are over.

Here's Dehner's final guess: Harmon Ratledge LB Demetrius Knight DE Barryn Sorrel RB Jarquez Hunter S Dan Jackson https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6290672/2025/04/21/final-bengals-7-round-mock-draft/

I'd love to see a trade down, just a question of whether there's a partner.

We have chatted about a lot of possibilities at 17 over the past few months, but if I had to lay money on what position they would draft then, it would be on edge. I 100% expect them to take a DE at 17. Who, I don't know, and I fully expect whoever it is to bust, but that's just my utter distrust of this DE class talking. While I also expect them to address the oline (guard) at some point, I think the sweet spot feels like round three for that. So to agree with something you said down on the draft board, the second round pick is the real wildcard. Safety, DT and LB should all have strong options, but if this turned out to be a RB or TE I wouldn't be surprised.

I’ve seen Pearce fall to the second in multiple mocks. Brugler gave him a second round grade. Honestly I want no part of him.

Adeniji headed to Dallas. https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/cowboys/2025/04/17/dallas-cowboys-to-sign-garland-native-offensive-lineman-hakeem-adeniji/

Commanders on the cusp of getting $850 million from DC for a new stadium. To be fair, they say they'll pony up the rest of the cost of the new, $3 billion stadium, but still. https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/commanders-d-c-close-to-3-billion-deal-for-new-stadium-at-rfk-site-in-nations-capital-per-report/

Speaking of edge, more chatter today from Tony Pauline, passed along by Sheeran. https://atozsports.com/nfl/cincinnati-bengals-news/nfl-draft-insider-teams-trading-up-in-front-of-bengals-first-round-pick/ Pauline had a report last week that the expectation around the league was that Cincy would go edge at 17, and if so that would light off a run on edge rushers, with like seven more going before the end of the round. Today's update is expectations have risen that someone below the Bengals will swap with either the Cards or Falcons to jump us and grab an edge. Also some chatter that the Bengals might go DT instead. Give me Nolen at 17 and I'm content.

Stewart has been losing steam for a while. It's all laid out in the last five minutes of Joe's video from a couple weeks back: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_mm-rcEsYQ His college production puts him in the same class as...Myles Murphy. Not only wouldn't Goodberry take him at 17, he wouldn't take him in the second either. Like I said a few days ago, I've gotten increasingly jittery about this edge class, to the point where I would really, really, like to see any other position at 17. Stewart is the leading example of why.

Risner still talking with Minny, Denver and Cincy. https://www.cincyjungle.com/2025/4/17/24410254/bengals-news-dalton-risner-watch-minnesota-vikings-denver-broncos I’d guess that all three teams have guys targeted in the draft, but are keeping in touch in case things don’t fall the way they think.

Had another go-round with the PFN simulator over lunch. I think I'd be pretty happy with this draft. I did indulge the AI's trade hyperactivity but just once and only slightly, sliding down from 17 to 20 in the first in return for swapping 81 for 51. 20 Malaki Starks. was planning on taking him at 17 anyway. 49 Carson Schwesinger. Considered my usual Landon Jackson pick here but decided to go a little different and see how things rolled. 51. Jonah Savaiinaea. This could have been Jackson or Ersery, too, if you like. But if you go Jackson you will be kicking yourself... 119. Jack Sawyer. No way in hell this happens, but wow that would be a nice top 4 picks, imo. 153. Rylie Mills, DT, Notre Dame. DT with a knack for getting after the QB (7.5 sacks last year) and one of Al's guys. Did miss the last three games of 2024 with a knee injury. 193. Mitchell Evans, TE, Notre Dame. Sticking with the ND theme here. Something of a poor man's Tyler Eifert, complete with Eifert-like struggles to stay healthy. I could have had my pick of project DTs and CBs, or fumble-prone RBs, here, if you prefer any of those.

Well, however you feel about players currently on the roster, most of the ones we’re currently talking about starting aren’t going to be here for long. Patrick, Volson and Karras — that’s the entire starting IOL — are set to be free agents in 11 months. Ford and OBj are up the following March. Mims is the only guy signed long-term right now. Now, I’ve been high on Matt Lee, so maybe we have an answer for Karras. Then there’s Kirkland, who was getting some buzz last season before he got hurt — but he’s a free agent in ‘26 too. Beyond that it’s some camp bodies and taxi squad types. So unless the front office is planning to drop a bunch on money on FA offensive lineman over the next couple years, they’re gonna have to draft some guys.

Excellent breakdown of the guard situation from Dehner today. His prediction: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6270997/2025/04/15/bengals-nfl-draft-needs-guard/ Also, combined with his look at LB and safety yesterday: https://archive.ph/n1tTq …his rounds 1-3 prediction is now: 1 Starks, 2 Ratledge, 3 LB Demetrius Knight. Works for me.