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TJJackson

The Complete 2020-21 Offseason Plan v2

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20 hours ago, TJJackson said:

COB: on what date does the new year and the new cap apply, ie when each team has to be under the new number with new contract numbers?

(Im bad with this stuff - I figure you have to keep track so you know when you have to get a new gutter cleaner)

That said, while I truly believe that the Bengals would be best served by spending about 20-30 mil (combined, not each) on two top tier FA Offensive linemen..,

That is a difficult question.  August 31st is an important date, because that’s the day teams cut their rosters to 53 players.  
 

The cap number clearly must be tabulated around then.  Having 70 plus guys on the roster in July and August is clearly going to put you over the cap.  
 

There are a ton of variables that come into play. June 1st is an important date, if you cut guys before then you can spread their cap hit for that season over the next two seasons.  Cut them after June 1, their cap hit stays on that season.  How can they count against the cap if they’re cut?  Their signing bonus is pro-rated over the life of their deal, so it still counts against the cap.

Teams also sign new guys and cut guys during the season.  What if they sign a great player to a huge deal that shoved them over the cap for that season?  It can’t happen because the league has to approve all contracts before they can be signed.  
 

So basically there is no specified date for your team to be cap evaluated.  Each team is in a constant state of being monitored cap wise, and their cap hit for a given season changes repeatedly during the season.  

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I thought there was a range of dates during which a team has to always, at all times, be below the cap

I sorta kinda think I vaguely remember teams signing player x during FA and cutting player y the same day so at the end of the business day they are under the cap......

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Top 51 rule.    From the start of a new league year the TOP 51 contracts must be under the Salary Cap.

The TOP 51 is determined by cap hit alone not total value of the contract.   Then at final  roster cut down time the entire 53 has to be under the cap.

 

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the content of this article

https://bengalswire.usatoday.com/2021/01/23/bengals-gave-nfl-largest-signing-bonuses-reserve-future-deal/

doesnt seem like much, but it strongly sugests (to me) that the Bengals expect to move on from Clark Harris, who has been excellent for many many many years as our longsnapper but is a free agent presently

which means we probably can ignore longsnapper in the draft

I know that brings a HUGE sigh of relief to most of you :-)

anyway, I'm gonna consider the longsnapper need as taken care of at this point

whew

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so according to the Top 50 2021 Free Agents list compiled by Sports illustrated and discussed in this article

https://www.si.com/nfl/bengals/news/three-cincinnati-bengals-appear-on-top-50-nfl-free-agents-list

AJ Green is the number 22 FA going into 2021

I love me some AJ Green, and always will, but.....the guy is a pale shadow of what he once was, and is at this point more accurately #22 on the bottom 50 2021 free agents list

so this makes no sense

why, SI?

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If I am running the show, Lawson is my number 1 player to re-sign

However.....I firmly believe Lawson will go elsewhere even if we do offer a same as or better than type contract unless we provide him with some passrushing help, especially from the other DE, because the current lack of help is preventing him from shining as a DE himself

Don't be surprised to see him move on without apparently giving our offer so much as a sniff if we don't sign another plus DE in FA

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Lawson can be tagged.

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1 hour ago, membengal said:

Lawson can be tagged.

Well, yah. But keep in mind the tag for a DE was over $19 million last year.

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Sure. But considering they paid AJ $18 million, that would be a pretty easy swap.

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Over the Cap projected Tags and Tenders.

 

2021 Projected Franchise and Transition Tenders

Position Franchise Tag Transition Tag
QB $23,511,000 $21,206,000
DE $17,309,000 $14,442,000
WR $16,020,000 $13,913,000
LB $15,266,000 $13,071,000
CB $14,885,000 $12,873,000
OL $14,145,000 $12,828,000
DT $13,824,000 $11,121,000
S $10,916,000 $9,312,000
RB $10,835,000 $8,719,000
TE $9,902,000 $8,357,000
ST $4,672,000 $4,273,000

2021 Projected RFA Tenders

Type Amount
First Round $4,873,000
Second Round $3,422,000
Original Round

$2,240,000

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Spotrac estimates market value of

William Jackson $6.3m a year average

Carl Lawson $8.8m a year average

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It'd be nice if they started to get some of these re-signings done

Mr Jackson, Mr Lawson, Mr Alexander: we have x million budgeted to sign you three.  The first one to sign gets an extra 600k signing bonus tacked onto his contract. The second gets an extra 300k signing bonus.

Lets do this.

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PFF is starting to lose some credibility in my eyes

so the following article on Biggest Offseason Needs for each team

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-offseason-needs-for-all-32-nfl-teams

says the Bengals need Outside offensive line, then Inside Offensive line.....OK so far, yes yes

then it says......cornerback.....as need number three.   Uhmm.....no?????

given that they are separating interior from exterior on the lines, I'd say Corner is no bigger a need than 5th, perhaps 6th

 

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6 minutes ago, TJJackson said:

PFF is starting to lose some credibility in my eyes

so the following article on Biggest Offseason Needs for each team

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-offseason-needs-for-all-32-nfl-teams

says the Bengals need Outside offensive line, then Inside Offensive line.....OK so far, yes yes

then it says......cornerback.....as need number three.   Uhmm.....no?????

given that they are separating interior from exterior on the lines, I'd say Corner is no bigger a need than 5th, perhaps 6th

 

I think they are projecting us losing William Jackson.

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From another board it’s rumored that PDJ is reporting the Bengals aren’t interested in resigning Alexander. 
 

I’m not sure where you put CB on needs list.   3rd down pass coverage seemed horrible, IMO.   Critical stops department was bad too. 

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I am not sure I'd call Cornerback the third greatest need even if we do lose WJ3.....but OK, maybe they were assuming that to be the case

I would say that if I could sign one or the other (WJ3 or Lawson) I'd tag the other if I had to to ensure they stay.....even though I hate tags as I feel they all but ensure departure of the player the following year

They need to get humping on those two contracts, as well as Alexander's, Huber's and Brandon Wilson...heck, anyone they know they want to retain.  Lets get them now while nothing else is going on

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Whatever the franchise tag amount is for Lawson $19m or 17.3m for 1 season,  I have a hard time justifying that.

They have needs everywhere a case can be made for several position groups.  

For comparisons sake the Bengals got this for about $28.3m in cap room last year.  Now the effectiveness of these acquisitions are TBD for various reasons:

DJ Reader - 10m through 2023

Waynes - 10m through 2022

Xavier Filo - $2.3m through 2022

Alexander $4.0m 1 year deal

Bynes $2.0m 1 year deal.

Hindsight is 20/20 and I was very happy when they tagged AJ for $18m.  But that was another 2 multi year parts they could have bought or a slew of 1 year deal players (For reference the Buffalo Bills got a steal in Daryl Williams at RT for $2.3m cap hit 1 year). 

With Lawson's knee issue AND the current state of this team being many players away.  I don't see the justification in paying Lawson those amounts for 1 year.   I could easily see Lawson getting this money giving us 5 sacks and ton of pressures on a bad defense again next year then gone.  

Different story if we were 1 player away situation.  But you've got to get a team around Jackson and Lawson.  

Multi year deals for Lawson and Jackson are different stories.   Also IF they lose either one, then they must buy a similar part.   Can't have this crap of wisely not paying Zeitler (12/14mil) but then trying to replace him with bargain basement deals for years.

 

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Easier way to say it.   If you go through last year's players that signed 1 year FA deals and assume that same quality.

$19m or 17.3m of cap room that's 5/6 decent starters or front line reserve upgrades that could be had on 1 year deals.   

If the execution is good (which is always questionable with Bengals) you are all of sudden in a Wild Card race in November/December with a decent draft and a fully recovered Burrow.

 

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