2025 FA Thread

[Stripes]

I’m so glad I purchased a Cam Grandy all white alternates jersey to add to my existing Cam Grandy merchandise collection.

[TJJackson]

at least we know they are working to get the top top top free agents signed

[ArmyBengal]

Pam Landy ??

Great hire. Her CIA background might seem a little odd, but she’s clearly intelligent and has mad influential skills to motivate the players. This defense is about to level the fuck up !!

There was some controversy with the whole Treadstone clusterfuck and her thing with Jason Bourne, but I think the change of scenery may be exactly what she needs.

[COB]

Pam Landy?  She’s standing right next to you.  (Skrillex drop).

[HoosierCat]

So Tobin talked about Chase and Trey at the Senior Bowl. Re Chase:

Quote

“It's a priority for us,” Tobin said. “It's something we feel like there's a framework to work off of. Should be a pretty easy framework to work off of. Guys in his position have recently re-done contracts. We believe in Ja’Marr, he's very important to us. The other guys that have done contracts are very important to their teams. So, we believe there's a real framework to work off of. I would expect that we could come together on something that makes sense for both sides.”

“Framework” in question are the Jefferson and Lamb deals

Re Trey:

Quote

“Has he earned a pay raise and a bump in an extension … he has,” Tobin said. “We’re cognizant of that, and we will give that to him. But whether we agree on what that looks like is, is what is to be determined.”

Historically, the Bengals have not often given second contracts to players over the age of 30. They are willing to make an exception for Hendrickson, it just has to be at the right price. Tobin and the Bengals want to make it clear that while they will do what they can to compensate Hendrickson, it takes two sides to get an extension done.

“We can't have guys at the top of the payroll in every position, right?” Tobin said.  "We'll do what we can. We'll do what we feel is right, and we will try to get Trey re-signed. It's not giving anybody an extension. It's agreeing with somebody on an extension.”

No mention of Tee.

[HoosierCat]

My take on the state of play:

Tee — I’ve seen no word about talks between the Bengals and Higgins. Maybe both sides are just really good at keeping things on the down low, but by all appearances are they are going to let him walk. The tag remains an option. The deadline to make that call will be in early March.

Chase — They want to do a deal but Tobin’s “frameworks” calls to mind Marvin’s comment about how they offered one of the Sharpers “a structure” before he left town and eventually signed with (I think) Seattle. So yeah, they are still hung up on doing business their way. They still probably get something done but it won’t be easy.

Trey — Sounds to me like business as usual. They’ll give him something but aren’t willing to pay top dollar. Odds of a deal maybe 50/50? I dunno.

[COB]

1 hour ago, HoosierCat said:

So Tobin talked about Chase and Trey at the Senior Bowl. Re Chase:

“Framework” in question are the Jefferson and Lamb deals

Re Trey:

No mention of Tee.

Typical wall of words from bengals management.  They won’t work hard.  They won’t adapt and change.  Clearly Tobin is sending the signals: the bengals’ way or the highway (hint: it’s almost always the highway).

[ArmyBengal]

Don’t know why they are worried about the Jefferson and Lamb deals. They sat on their hands last offseason, Chase bet on himself, and they watched him become one of the few WR’s in history to pull off the receiving triple crown.

His deal will eclipse both of those mentioned. The Bengals fucked that up for sure. Just lazy on their part.

[HoosierCat]

I don’t think Duke actually knows much/anything. Like COB said he’s just repeating the company line. Ja’marr will reset the market. That’s a given, otherwise he ain’t signing.

[AMPHAR]

There's no need to get yourselves worked up.    They'll classify the players how they see fit.  Assign a value.   The player in question will get an offer in that value range.  They don't want it, then its on to the next player.    That's how they've operated for years.

At the end of the day its a zero sum game.   Assume Tee's projection is legit $25m a year.   OK.   If the Bengals pay him that then its several spots having to rely on a young 2nd day draft pick to contribute.   If they don't pay him the $25m then its a combination of players getting that amount.  

Its how they build the AFC Champion squad.   Lawson didn't want the money, Trey did.  William Jackson III didn't want the extension so I think they got 3 players for the same total cap hit.    There have been misses as well, because Bates hasn't been replaced.

At the end of the day in August you'll wake up and Vegas will have them top 5 in AFC.  They are already top 10 for Superbowl 60 winner.   

Front office deserves way more benefit of the doubt.   The 2 playoff misses is completely on the field related not because they don't have talent.

Quite frankly you hand Al Golden what they handed Lou last year, I'll say its a good guess they aren't going give up more points. 

[AMPHAR]

Some Bengal fan need to realize the reason why Marvin Lewis didn't win playoff games is because of Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton choking.   Not because they didn't have talent.

Bengals haven't been in the playoffs the past two seasons because Burrow wasn't healthy OR he flat out sucked.  Take your pick.  I think he's great and those early season numbers were the result of a calf recovery.     Last year Lou couldn't get a unit to get a handful of stops, period.  He's let an average to bad Pittsburgh offense dominate him 3 out of 4 games and that's been your playoff spot that's been lost.

[AMPHAR]

Tee Higgins is consistently rated a top Free Agent in the 2025 class.    Tee is a fan favorite but not elite player.

I could go either way on him.   The further his price tag gets from $20m a year the more questionable it becomes. 

With a Higgins deal near Tag level or Tag ($26m), Burrow ($46m), and Chase ($22m) just on 5th year option.  That's 40% of your cap for 2025.   Cash for a Higgins deal and Chase in the same year using established frame works would be $55m-$60m.

Anyway, Higgins leading the FA class prior to tags and extensions means its a so so FA class.  Might not want to dumb long term elite money to anyone singular player but grab 2/3 decent ones.

 

[ArmyBengal]

Keeping Tee was always going to be a struggle and I don't think that's the Bengals being cheap either.
I want them to and think they can, but am unsure if it's really the right thing to do.
I guess some of that will come with seeing who else they could add to the roster in free agency.

I was curious in a comparison and went to take a look at the Michael Pittman Jr. deal.  
Him and Tee were drafted in the same draft class.

Higgins has played in 70 games, starting 62 of them.  His stats look like this:
330 receptions on 512 targets. That's nearly 60% success rate when thrown his way.
4,595 yards and 34 TD's, converting 233 first downs.
During the playoffs, he has 31 catches, 457 yards, 3 TD's and 21 first downs over 7 games.

Pittman has played in 78 games, starting 70 of them.  His stats look like this:
405 receptions on 598 targets.  That's 53.5% success rate when thrown his way.
4,470 yards and 18 TD's, converting 215 first downs.
During the playoffs, he has 5 catches, 90 yards, 0 TD's and 3 first downs in 1 game.

While there are several different ways one might interpret that, I'm in the camp that says when Higgins is healthy and on the field, he's clearly the better receiver.  Had he been healthy, those numbers would only be increased.  Another might be, well Pittman has had shit QB's play and still put up solid numbers while Higgins has had Burrow throwing him the ball.

Either way around, Pittman got a 3 year $70m deal, averaging $23.3m per year with a $15m signing bonus.
$46m of the $70m is guaranteed.  The Colts have a $5m dead cap out the 3rd year, saving $24m if they move on.

While there are certainly other WR's that could be compared, this is a pretty good one in my opinion.
My take away is there is no way a contract is done that doesn't average AT LEAST the $26.2m tag.
As much as Tee should probably stay with Burrow, some team will throw a bigger number than that at him.

With that said, Tee is gone...

[AMPHAR]

WRs are the most "in season" traded position.   A lot of it is teams have buyers remorse after the big contract.   Tee is a fan favorite.  I have always wanted the Bengals to keep the trio together.  So I wouldn't be mad, but looking at Tee's availability his actual numbers produced and even his projected numbers thinking he can once get 17 games isn't elite. 

He's in a good situation playing with one of the best QB and the best WR taking coverage away from him.   Tee with a top of market deal scream buyers remorse by the 3rd year of his contract and fans living on his name from his hey day.

OBJ is probably the best example.   He made a living off that catch, the last 8 years he put up JAG or worse numbers.  Higgins has put up JAG for his whole career if you look at it without fandom glasses on.  

I would say tag him with the intent to trade or lift the tag.  Take advantage of your cap situation.  They'll have enough cap room to do whatever they want even with a chunk taken up with a tag. 

These projected annual numbers of $28m for Tee while at the same time Chase is going to be $30m+ don't make a whole lot of sense unless its for a year or 2.  I doubt Higgins would be willing to do a 2 year deal.

I doubt Trey will want just a 2 year either.   I would seriously consider trading him IF he want 4/5 years and the amount cap that takes.  He's been incredible.  He's played a bunch of snaps.  Sometimes you get Whitworth other time you get Geno. 

 

[AMPHAR]

50 minutes ago, ArmyBengal said:

Keeping Tee was always going to be a struggle and I don't think that's the Bengals being cheap either.
I want them to and think they can, but am unsure if it's really the right thing to do.
I guess some of that will come with seeing who else they could add to the roster in free agency.

I was curious in a comparison and went to take a look at the Michael Pittman Jr. deal.  
Him and Tee were drafted in the same draft class.

Higgins has played in 70 games, starting 62 of them.  His stats look like this:
330 receptions on 512 targets. That's nearly 60% success rate when thrown his way.
4,595 yards and 34 TD's, converting 233 first downs.
During the playoffs, he has 31 catches, 457 yards, 3 TD's and 21 first downs over 7 games.

Pittman has played in 78 games, starting 70 of them.  His stats look like this:
405 receptions on 598 targets.  That's 53.5% success rate when thrown his way.
4,470 yards and 18 TD's, converting 215 first downs.
During the playoffs, he has 5 catches, 90 yards, 0 TD's and 3 first downs in 1 game.

While there are several different ways one might interpret that, I'm in the camp that says when Higgins is healthy and on the field, he's clearly the better receiver.  Had he been healthy, those numbers would only be increased.  Another might be, well Pittman has had shit QB's play and still put up solid numbers while Higgins has had Burrow throwing him the ball.

Either way around, Pittman got a 3 year $70m deal, averaging $23.3m per year with a $15m signing bonus.
$46m of the $70m is guaranteed.  The Colts have a $5m dead cap out the 3rd year, saving $24m if they move on.

While there are certainly other WR's that could be compared, this is a pretty good one in my opinion.
My take away is there is no way a contract is done that doesn't average AT LEAST the $26.2m tag.
As much as Tee should probably stay with Burrow, some team will throw a bigger number than that at him.

With that said, Tee is gone...

I would take the Pittman contract and a market increase ALL DAY long for Tee Higgins.   Because it has an out for the Colts after year 2.    Maybe Higgins would settle for what amounts to a two year deal at less than annual values vs. the franchise tag?  That's the issue.  

Higgins probably wants a bigger contract than Pittman. Probably wants an annual value equal or greater than franchise tag.  Probably wants guarantees that dictate a 4/5 year deal.   That's were it gets difficult and as a fan I start questioning the value of that for the Bengals. 

If you look teams that have done the headline grabbing deals for WRs start looking for outs after year 2 or 3, not always but there's several examples.    

Any deal for Higgins, I would love for the Bengals to be dead cap minimal after year 2.  But that means Higgins isn't getting as much guarantee up front and has to shoulder risk as more of the contract value is put into annual salary.  

 

[ArmyBengal]

I would love a Pittman type deal for Higgins as well, but don't think there's a way they get him at that number.  Having that type of out after 2 seasons would be spectacular.

In retrospect, the Bengals messed this up, just like Ja'Marr.
They tagged Tee and reportedly didn't offer a long term deal that hit $20m per year.
It was a mistake because that number was only going to go up from there.
If getting Tee at $21-$22m per year now would be a great deal (I DO) than the Bengals messed up.
They could have had it at that last year and be sitting only needing to focus on Chase and Trey right now.

Just like Ja'Marr betting on himself and turning in one of the best WR season's in history.
People saying he wasn't worth the $30m last year are going to shit themselves with his deal coming up.
Again, people will NOW say, "Yeah, pay Chase $30m per year".  TOO LATE...
 

[Stripes]

Still deeply annoyed at the mindset that Chase needed to "demonstrate" that he was capable of an elite season as if 1) he didn't already do it as a rookie and 2) eyeballs weren't sufficient to determine what he was quite obviously capable of.

[AMPHAR]

CeeDee and Justin Jefferson didn't get their deal until after year 4 and it took all the way up to Summer to do it.   Chase was not signing before then.  

There was deal offered and almost agreed to by Chase that would have made him the highest paid WR.  That's why he ended his shut in and then started it again.   Speculation is that the structure was the  issue.

Higgins fired his agent which has a big reputation of moving clients.   

How anyone can find complete fault with the front office these two not being signed right now is beyond me.  

Running a front office is easy IF players just take what fans think is fair and at the time they think it.

   

 

[ArmyBengal]

18 minutes ago, AMPHAR said:

How anyone can find complete fault with the front office these two not being signed right now is beyond me.  

Running a front office is easy IF players just take what fans think is fair and at the time they think it.

As to the first comment, it's easy.  They had eyes on Chase since day one and knew what they had.  They did what they always do and waited for someone else to move first instead of just paying him regardless of the others.  I argued at the time Chase should be the highest paid WR and was laughed at.

I would be less irritated by it if it wasn't what the Bengals always do.  This time it's going to bite them if they don't cheap out yet again.  His new deal is going to far eclipse whatever they were going to do last year and he will reset the WR market.  Who's fault exactly is that?

I said the same thing about Higgins after a couple of contracts (like Pittman's) were signed in that the Bengals would be smart to offer him the same deal.  Again, I was laughed at.

What's beyond me is fans that honestly think the front office is being up front in paying these guys what they are worth.  If they were, Burrow wouldn't be doing interviews saying the same thing.  It's not like they don't know what the team is capable of when they take the field.  This isn't much different offensively than the group that went to the Super Bowl.  

Running a front office is easy if they would take advantage of the work that was done for them by other teams and offer a deal now, instead of waiting a year to see them "prove it".  Now the combined cost of Higgins and Chase, should they pull both deals off is going to cost them $8-10 million more per season.

Higgins wasn't worth $20m and Chase wasn't worth $30m.  Lets not forget that worth is predicated on what another team is willing to pay them, not what anyone thinks about their injury history or whatever else someone can throw up as a reason.

[ArmyBengal]

Wait one...

"Complete" fault ??

No, of course not.  There's certainly understanding the player and/or their agent play a role in these deals.
My take is that the front office rarely seems to make these things a priority unless they are a QB.
The other guys that have gotten paid seem to be when they bring in free agents.
When they are due for an extension, it seems to fall apart.

[AMPHAR]

I think fans get the August extensions and when February/March come around they forget or somehow don't count them on their scorecard when wanting to find fault with the front office.  

They approached Chase a year earlier than JJ and CD.  There was strong indication that Chase had the highest WR deal on the table and didn't like the way it was structured. 

Money Mac isn't a free agent now.  Wilson isn't a free agent now.  Like they were supposed to be.  

Trey  isn't a free agent because in 2023 they extended him through 2025 before they had too.  Now he wants and deserves a raise.

There a substantial list of players they dealt with early and took off the market.   Fans forget those and only focus on the issue at hand and form a bad opinion. 

Bengals are in a pretty good spot because they got the QB deal done early which hasn't been 100% across the league.   Lamar Jackson had to be tagged.  Dak saga drew out over and over.

IMO, the deserve way more credit that what's been given.    Bengals can once again set the path of a decent offseason by simply applying the tag to Higgins.   If they choose to do so.  Then that doesn't even screw them because they ample cap room and marginal FAs to resign or replace.

 

 

 

 

 

[COB]

On 1/30/2025 at 8:34 AM, AMPHAR said:

There's no need to get yourselves worked up.    They'll classify the players how they see fit.  Assign a value.   The player in question will get an offer in that value range.  They don't want it, then its on to the next player.    That's how they've operated for years.

Thanks for explaining how contracts work.  
 

Your depiction of the FO thought process is incredibly accurate.  Throw a number at a player, take it or leave it. No spirit. No enthusiasm.  No excitement at the prospect of keeping an important player.  After all, it’s a zero sum game.  If Jessie Bates won’t take our offer, which is below the market, we’ll split that money up amongst 3 youngsters who will do his job at an equal level.  Right?  Right?  What, it didn’t work?  You’re fired, Lou Anarumo.  
 

In case no one has noticed, it’s not just fans who are getting worked up over the front office’s archaic way of doing business, it’s also the 275 million dollar quarterback who is pretty much solely responsible for turning this franchise around.  They should listen to Burrow, he seems to have a good grasp on what winning football team should look like.