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2024 Offseason News Thread


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8 hours ago, ArmyBengal said:

Nerdy ??

Excuse me sir, but I prefer “Passionate”.

Now if you don’t mind, I’m late for my Dungeons and Dragons tournament. As soon as I can find my argyle sweater and library card, I’m fucking out of here. I can’t believe this shit… Fucking “nerdy” ?? I’m about to  go all Frodo on that ass…

Jesus

thought I smelled some rank BO in here.

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Notable since the bengals said they are trying extend McMoney.

Quote

 The Kansas City Chiefs signed Harrison Butker to a contract extension that makes him the NFL's highest-paid kicker, sources told ESPN's Adam Schefter on Monday.

The extension is for four years and $25.6 million, with $17.75 million guaranteed, the sources said. At $6.4 million per year, Butker will make more than the previously highest-paid kickers, the Baltimore Ravens' Justin Tucker and Philadelphia Eagles' Jake Elliott, who both average $6 million per season on their contracts.

The deal ties Butker to the Chiefs through the 2028 season. He was scheduled to make $3.945 million in the final season of the five-year contract he signed with the Chiefs in 2019.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/40736905/sources-chiefs-make-harrison-butker-nfl-top-paid-kicker

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  • 2 weeks later...

$120M given the timing is certainly entering the world of making the Bengals take on a lot more risk considering Chase has only averaged 1,200 yards his 3 years.   

There's a lot of other factors in his numbers like the health of QB of course, but still locking in at that rate before ever producing 1,600 yards is certainly entering the world of unreasonable.

That writer isn't going to be around owning up to his mistake if Chase just remains at the sub 1,600 yard level.

When you hand over that type of money and guarantee it you are wanting super seasons that get your team as close a possible to a Superbowl. 

 

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Given that type of money you have to get SUPER seasons like 1,600-1,900 league leading (or top 3) seasons.   Chase hit the top 5 his rookie year and hasn't sniffed it since.

That's a big ask of the Bengals, IMO.   Pay him like that absolute top despite never being it.

If you make him wait and he pops off one of those seasons.   Well, he's already asking for the most guaranteed money anyway.  

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Well was there anyone thinking he didn’t want top of the market contract? Of course he said that, but that’s because he probably knows (or should) that he’s not getting that. The number will be lower for sure.

Again, yards are one small stat. Chase has actually played in multiple playoff games and a Super Bowl. Something Justin Jefferson can only dream of at this point regardless of his personal stats.

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Can I only assume most people in favor of paying Chase a larger sum than JJ are simultaneously thinking he reaches those stat levels.   I think/hope he does.   I'm still in favor of paying both Chase and Higgins and thinking you can build a Superbowl winner doing so.

There's going to be 19-20 WRs taken in the top 150 picks in next year's draft.  Same for the year after.    There's only so much sitting out Chase can realistically do with his current stat lines and hopes of $120m.    He's got a little leverage right now with public support but that will dwindle next to nothing if he misses week 2.   Realistically there's not too many bridges he can burn given those stat lines and those contract demands. 

Eventually Chase is going to have to pop off a league top 3 receiving season to justify it.   Bengals give him that contract today, its a clear overpay in the moment.

 

 

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I think those contract numbers are reasonable.  
 

1.  Lots of receivers in the upcoming draft?  WTF? Any of those guys going to play like Jamar Chase?  Very unlikely.  
 

2.  The formula of season yard totals = contract value is faulty and is not used to set contract values for nfl receivers.  It’s one metric but just one. 
 

3.  Chase’s value is just going to rise as the salary cap gets reset every year.  I remember when we gave Andy 100 million and everyone, including me, freaked out.  A few years later it was a bargain.  
 

4.  Don’t compare JJ to Chase.  Chase is a hard nosed football player who gets first downs on 3rd and 6 like a tight end, in heavy contact plays.  He also is the best downfield blocker I’ve ever seen.  Chase is the furthest thing from the standard issue diva receiver who just looks for big personal stats and pouts if he doesn’t get the ball 15 times a game.  It is completely unfair to judge him based on one stat when he’s the antithesis of that stat hunting stereotype.

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Well, back when all this started it was, he’s waiting for JJ to sign and set the market, and he did, so at least to me it’s no surprise that a JJ-level deal is what he wants.

And I think we all knew that whatever JJ’s deal turned out to be, it was going to be a rhymes-with-witch to push through the front office because it would require them to break their self-imposed rule about guaranteed money beyond year 1.

And and, this was all bubbling up a year before an extension would normally be done.

I don’t know what they’re going to do. I suspect the FO very much wants to wait until 2025, and since it doesn’t look like Chase is actually going to hold out, they probably don’t do a deal this year. But that’s just a guess.

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I personally don't care if he ever hits 1600 yards as long as his whole body of work continues as it has to this point.  Again, we have a WR that has produced in the post season and a Super Bowl.  He's established from that perspective and knowing that has it's own value.  The moment isn't too big.  He doesn't shrink when his number is called.

The closest Jefferson has been is winning a college National Championship.
While that is something, it's not the same.  Do I think he would fail in that area?
No, but it's not established.

Chase needs to be signed now.  He doesn't need to get $40m per year either.
Just on par with whatever the top of the market is at currently.
He's a top of the market WR and the Bengals may lose more than just the player if not resigned.

Have to think Burrow won't think too highly of the front office's decision if he's not extended.
Just don't let that become a problem when it's not needed.

I would love for them to have both Chase and Higgins, but that's a pipe dream.
No way the Bengals devote that much of the cap to one position group.
NO. CHANCE.

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Flat side-by-side comparisons of statistics are basically useless anyway unless there is simply no contest.

Jefferson has more catches per season.

Jefferson has more yards per season.

Chase has more TDs per season.

Both have had non-zero injury history.

Chase's peak single-game performances have been better.

Jefferson has been more consistent.

Chase has played with better receiving threats alongside him that draw more targets.

Chase has faced stronger secondaries (arguably).

Jefferson has had weaker QB play.

Chase is more accomplished in the postseason.

If I have to take all that in balance and choose a "better" player, so far I probably give a faint edge to Jefferson. I think they both trail Tyreek Hill. But it's not some extremely clear-cut thing. I think it makes sense for Chase to expect to be paid in that tier of player, and if the Bengals feel otherwise then this is going to become a more annoying drama at some point.

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1 hour ago, COB said:

I think those contract numbers are reasonable.  
 

1.  Lots of receivers in the upcoming draft?  WTF? Any of those guys going to play like Jamar Chase?  Very unlikely.  
 

5th rounder beat Chase's best year last year as a rookie.    Puka

4th rounder beat Chase's best year in his 3rd season.   St. Brown.

3rd rounder beat Chase's 2nd best year in his 3rd season Nico Collins.

1st rounder 18th overall pick was comparable to Chase his rookie year and hit 1,800 his 3rd year.  Justin Jefferson.

There will be rookie's/young players that produce as WRs very early in their career and carry a much lower cap hit.   Chase has not produced a season like the players he's modeling his next contract after.   Those are facts.

I'm in favor of paying Chase but paying him that amount is certainly questionable at this point.

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Stripes said:

Flat side-by-side comparisons of statistics are basically useless anyway unless there is simply no contest.

Jefferson has more catches per season.

Jefferson has more yards per season.

Chase has more TDs per season.

Both have had non-zero injury history.

Chase's peak single-game performances have been better.

Jefferson has been more consistent.

Chase has played with better receiving threats alongside him that draw more targets.

Chase has faced stronger secondaries (arguably).

Jefferson has had weaker QB play.

Chase is more accomplished in the postseason.

If I have to take all that in balance and choose a "better" player, so far I probably give a faint edge to Jefferson. I think they both trail Tyreek Hill. But it's not some extremely clear-cut thing. I think it makes sense for Chase to expect to be paid in that tier of player, and if the Bengals feel otherwise then this is going to become a more annoying drama at some point.

On a per season basis Justin Jefferson was a far superior player vs. Chase his first 3 years.   That's the time frame Chase is asking to be paid on.     

Its completely fair IF the Bengals pump the brakes and see that 4th season before the giving up that amount.   I don't know what they'll do.   I hope it doesn't get annoying but Chase will not build his case by sitting out.

There are young players coming in a producing comparable numbers.   There will be 20 or more WRs that will carry a top 150 grade this draft and probably well into the future.

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Does a lengthy hold out by Chase do more to get him a new contract or put him on the path of playing on his 5th year rookie option and then franchise tag? 

The latter route gets him about $50m for 2024,25, and 26 seasons.   Its just hard to think a sit out of multiple games gets him closer to the rumored deal with the Bengals.    Then is he going to hold out his rookie 5th year and franchise years too? 

I guess that could happen.   IF Chase doesn't get the deal prior to the start of the 2024 season, IMO, the best path to that $120m mark is to produce a top season in 2024. 

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Chase is not on social media talking shit, not on sports center or some other sports outlet trashing the team or the front office.
In return, the fans are pretty chilled out about the situation and many (like me) think something probably gets done.

However, if he misses regular season games, all bets are off.  I will shift to "Fuck that guy" mode as a fan.
On one hand, I understand why he wants (and frankly deserves) a contract extension.
On the other, he's under contract and don't blame the Bengals for wanting him to play on the contract agreed upon by the union.
Don't like having to play out a rookie deal?  Talk to your union rep.  They agreed to the rookie wage scale.
Want to make teams more likely to extend those players that produce consistently and meet draft status expectations?
Make it possible for teams to recoup money from the first round busts that can ruin a team for years due to lack of production.

I guess I'm always of the thought process that I would rather max out results than pay when I already have made more than most people will make working 40+ hours a week, in a job they hate, for their whole life.  What good does it do to get an extra $5 million a year when the team can no longer afford to build a team around you?

How long would it take you to make the nearly $22 million Higgins is making this year?
At my current pay (which I'm happy with), someone would need to find a way for me to extend my life by at least another 125 years.
Then of course I would need to be able to produce at the same level I currently am able to at 54 years old.
Sounds reasonable.... right?

This is why they can't keep Tee.  No way they make both Burrow and Chase the highest paid at their position when extended and then give another guy close to the same, even if not at the top.  Even though the cap always grows, those contracts can make things very prohibitive in adding more talent.  A team can no longer miss on draft picks.

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CeeDee Lamb gets paid

Quote

 Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb has ended his holdout and agreed to a four-year, $136 million deal that makes him the second-highest-paid non-quarterback in NFL history, sources told ESPN's Adam Schefter on Monday.

The deal includes a $38 million signing bonus, the largest ever given to a wide receiver, and $100 million guaranteed, per sources.

Lamb was set to play the 2024 season on the $17.99 million fifth-year option of his rookie deal and become a free agent after the season, but the Cowboys were able to lock him up through the 2028 season with the new deal.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/41003743/sources-cowboys-ceedee-lamb-agrees-four-year-136m-deal

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Interesting comparisons between Lamb and Chase.

Lamb has a season longer in the league than Chase does and Dallas also has used him as a returner as well.
However, Chase has 3 more playoff games and his stats eclipse Lamb's in the postseason.

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  Receiving Rushing    
Rk Player Age From To G GS Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Ctch% Y/Tgt 1D Att Yds Y/A TD 1D AV FantPt
1 Justin Jefferson 21-24 2020 2023 60 57 576 392 5899 15.0 30 68.1 10.2 264 12 28 2.3 1 3 49 783.5
2 CeeDee Lamb 21-24 2020 2023 66 61 568 395 5145 13.0 32 69.5 9.1 247 43 318 7.4 3 17 53 760.3
  Receiving Rushing    
Rk Player Age From To G GS Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Ctch% Y/Tgt 1D Att Yds Y/A TD 1D AV FantPt
1 Ja'Marr Chase 21-23 2021 2023 45 45 407 268 3717 13.9 29 65.8 9.1 177 15 23 1.5 0 2 35 541.7
2 Michael Pittman Jr. 23-26 2020 2023 62 56 487 336 3662 10.9 15 69.0 7.5 180 11 100 9.1 0 4 34 468.2
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