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Week 13: Chiefs @ Bengals


HoosierCat

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Graziano’s on board.

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The Bengals will repeat as AFC North champs

As they dressed, did their interviews and packed their bags to leave the visitors locker room after the game Sunday, Bengals players were locked in on the TV showing the final minutes of the Ravens-Jaguars game. It was back and forth, but every positive Jacksonville play on the final drive elicited cheers of excitement. And when the Jaguars stopped Baltimore at the end to clinch the win, there was celebration.

The Bengals and Ravens now have the same record with six games to play. And while Cincinnati is in bad tiebreaker shape thanks to a 1-3 division record that includes a head-to-head loss to the Ravens, it is a supremely confident team that's hitting its stride at the right time. The Bengals are not to be dismissed as division contenders, or even Super Bowl contenders. No other likely playoff team reached last year's Super Bowl, and their proximity to that experience makes them as confident as anyone in the league right now.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

It's not going to be easy. Baltimore's schedule looks a lot softer than Cincinnati's the rest of the way. The only team left on the Ravens' schedule that has a winning record is the Bengals, who host Baltimore in a Week 18 game that could decide this division. Meanwhile, Cincinnati goes home to play the Kansas City Chiefs next week and still has to play the Cleveland Browns (who kind of own them, and are getting Deshaun Watson back), the Bucs and the New England Patriots on the road, then the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore at home to close out the season.

The Bengals are a lot more likely to trip up once or twice on their schedule than the Ravens are. That said, Baltimore just blew another fourth-quarter lead and lost to Jacksonville while the Bengals were beating the Titans. Lamar Jackson's offense isn't exactly clicking right now. Burrow's is, and it's likely to get Ja'Marr Chase back next week. If Baltimore lets the Bengals hang around to the point where that Week 18 game is for the division, I wouldn't bet against Burrow pulling it off.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/35124488/judging-nfl-week-12-overreactions-bengals-repeat-afc-north

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So…looking at the remaining games, I’d say they need 4. 10 wins might squeak in but it would probably mean they need help. I think 11 gets them there straight up.

Must-wins are Baltimore, Cleveland, Bills and Pats. Have to win those first two to have any hope of snatching the AFCN crown again, and at least one if not both of the last two will be competing against them for a WC spot if they don’t.

Bucs game is the most lose-able game left. NFC team, basically no playoff implications aside from overall record (yes, if you go deep enough into tiebreakers maybe it matters but if that’s the case they’re probably screwed anyhow).

That leaves this week’s tilt against the Chiefs. Goes without saying a win would be ideal. But KC is 3 games up on SD, they’re almost certainly going to win the west, so they won’t figure into any AFC WC scrum. A loss would suck and turn the screws tighter on the remaining games, but isn’t fatal.

Hope they get it done. Not gonna freak if they don’t.

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As I have looked forward to this game, my biggest concern has easily been the loss of Awuzie. He was a critical piece of the coverage puzzle that befuddled Mahomes in both second halves of last year's matches, and I haven't been sure how the Bengals would be able to handle him and his weapons with a depleted secondary (even without Tyreek Hill they have weapons galore). However, I am extremely encouraged by Cam Taylor-Britt's performance yesterday. He had the one 50-50 ball that he allowed deep to Burks, and credit to Burks for making that play (quite like Tee Higgins made his catches downfield). Otherwise he was locked in and had his best performance in coverage of the season. He's been tackling well every week, but it wasn't until yesterday that he held his own in coverage too. If he can build on that it will be a huge deal against Kansas City. Obviously they run through Kelce more than anyone else, but we already have answers to that problem (Hilton, Flowers, and Dax). I was worried more about the outside, and maybe that won't necessarily be a disaster.

The pass rush remains a bit of a concern though. Hubbard is the perfect kind of mush-rush edge player to keep Mahomes from extending plays (as seen so beautifully in the fourth quarter of the AFCCG). You still have to generate some kind of meaningful pressure though, and KC's offensive line is better than Tennessee's.

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42 minutes ago, Stripes said:

As I have looked forward to this game, my biggest concern has easily been the loss of Awuzie. He was a critical piece of the coverage puzzle that befuddled Mahomes in both second halves of last year's matches, and I haven't been sure how the Bengals would be able to handle him and his weapons with a depleted secondary (even without Tyreek Hill they have weapons galore). However, I am extremely encouraged by Cam Taylor-Britt's performance yesterday. He had the one 50-50 ball that he allowed deep to Burks, and credit to Burks for making that play (quite like Tee Higgins made his catches downfield). Otherwise he was locked in and had his best performance in coverage of the season. He's been tackling well every week, but it wasn't until yesterday that he held his own in coverage too. If he can build on that it will be a huge deal against Kansas City. Obviously they run through Kelce more than anyone else, but we already have answers to that problem (Hilton, Flowers, and Dax). I was worried more about the outside, and maybe that won't necessarily be a disaster.

The pass rush remains a bit of a concern though. Hubbard is the perfect kind of mush-rush edge player to keep Mahomes from extending plays (as seen so beautifully in the fourth quarter of the AFCCG). You still have to generate some kind of meaningful pressure though, and KC's offensive line is better than Tennessee's.

Agree on all counts. I’ve also been pleasantly surprised at how well they’ve weathered the loss of Chido. Mahomes is a way bigger challenge than Tannehill or Pickett tho so hopefully CTB can keep pace with that hockey stick learning curve that is your rookie year in the NFL.

And yeah they badly need to find a pass rush. Not sure what’s happened there, aside from the officials apparently exempting Hendrickson’s opponents from holding rules…

Re KC’s oline, I believe Thuney was out with an ankle issue Sunday, no word yet on whether he will be back next weekend.

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2 hours ago, HoosierCat said:

So…looking at the remaining games, I’d say they need 4. 10 wins might squeak in but it would probably mean they need help. I think 11 gets them there straight up.

Must-wins are Baltimore, Cleveland, Bills and Pats. Have to win those first two to have any hope of snatching the AFCN crown again, and at least one if not both of the last two will be competing against them for a WC spot if they don’t.

Bucs game is the most lose-able game left. NFC team, basically no playoff implications aside from overall record (yes, if you go deep enough into tiebreakers maybe it matters but if that’s the case they’re probably screwed anyhow).

That leaves this week’s tilt against the Chiefs. Goes without saying a win would be ideal. But KC is 3 games up on SD, they’re almost certainly going to win the west, so they won’t figure into any AFC WC scrum. A loss would suck and turn the screws tighter on the remaining games, but isn’t fatal.

Hope they get it done. Not gonna freak if they don’t.

They've already beaten the Jets and Dolphins so a win against the Pats is critical to give them the tie breaker advantage IF they end up tied for a WC spot with any of those 3 teams.

Also, in order for them to win the division they need to stay at least TIED with the Ravens before the last game, because Ravens will hold tie breaker with a better division record.

As far as KC, IF the Bengals make them one dimensional, like they did twice last year for the second half, I don't think KC will fall for, and be stymied by Anarumo's game plan of rushing 3, dropping 8, and putting Hubbard on Mahomes as a spy, even though they fell for it twice last year.

TBH I know Andy Reid is a good offensive minded coach and I was stunned that he fell for it twice last year!

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18 hours ago, HoosierCat said:

3 point home dogs.

Like it.     The offensive line took time to get together.   Coming out of the bye they faced two outstanding fronts on the road.   It was important to just play average and they've played great.   Now I understand Tenn had some players out but still.     

Coming home after 2 straight road games.   I was not expecting a hangover this week.   This line cements the disrespect angle. 

I don't think we'll be seeing any blow out (although) would be nice.   I expect a barn burner and hopefully Bengals on top at the end.

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I think Zac Taylor has quietly put together a fantastic season of head coaching. He never gets much credit given that on either side of the ball it goes primarily to Burrow and Anarumo instead, and that's fine. I doubt he gives a crap. But I think he is doing a great job this year. His infectious winning culture is in full view every week at this point, and he has kept them focused through an 0-2 start, an 0-3 start in the division (including a MNF ass whooping), and his play calling has been perfectly effective for weeks now.

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1 hour ago, Stripes said:

I think Zac Taylor has quietly put together a fantastic season of head coaching. He never gets much credit given that on either side of the ball it goes primarily to Burrow and Anarumo instead, and that's fine. I doubt he gives a crap. But I think he is doing a great job this year. His infectious winning culture is in full view every week at this point, and he has kept them focused through an 0-2 start, an 0-3 start in the division (including a MNF ass whooping), and his play calling has been perfectly effective for weeks now.

I thought the quick math he did, managing the clock after the penalty on the LS, knowing the Titans were out of time outs, AND deciding to take points OFF the board with the 3 kneels, almost eliminating a chance for a turnover, was brilliant!!

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