O-line Watch 2022

[TJJackson]

Joisey: more or less agreed on Jonah.   The reasons to move him - which absolutely have to include (but not limited to) an even better OLT willing/intending to sign here - have to be immensely compelling 

You know I detest the FO, and have almost no confidence in them.  But that film is beyond conclusive so we'll see if even that utterly incompetent bunch can understand this new and utterly foreign (to them) concept in 2022.  Hey FO, remember when you signed Big Bobby Williams?

[membengal]

The same FO that just oversaw a two-year roster rebuild that ended in the Super Bowl and 85 seconds from winning it?

[ArmyBengal]

Again, I do not hold out hope of an Armstead signing.  Don't want him ??  I won't go that far but I hear you Hoosier.
Either way, the Bengals are NOT paying 20+ million per year to an OT.  That's almost twice the amount of an entire 4 year rookie contract at #31.
PLUS the 5th year option on top of that.  So no, I really don't think that's going down.

[AMPHAR]

1 hour ago, HoosierCat said:

If they spend big anywhere it will almost certainly be tackle. The FO appears bound and determined to go down with the ship on the matter of "IOL isn't worth paying for."

I think they like to be mid market on IOL.    The problem Bengal fans should have with it is  are going develop a quality guard like Boling or is this going to flame out like Jordan?  A Bobbie Williams type addition is the sweet spot to look for.

 

[AMPHAR]

1 hour ago, HoosierCat said:

Here's the thing about Jonah Williams. While imo the jury is still out whether he's a franchise left tackle, the facts are this: in 2019, he missed the whole season due to injury. In his second year (really his rookie year) in 2020, he missed six games due to injury. In the other 10 he gave the team over 600 snaps and repped a solid 70 grade on pff. in 2021 he played 20 games, gave the team more than 1,300 snaps, and graded out above 77.

Nowhere in that sequence do I find a compelling argument to move him off LT. In fact, given that tackles usually take 2-3 years to ramp up from college to NFL levels, 2022 is exactly the year I want to see him at LT. If he continues to progress as he has, then we know we have our franchise guy. If not, *then* I think about a move to RT.

The injury I do not know.    

I'm moving toward him being a franchise tackle.    Does it happen?  Don't know (meaning does he ever get Pro Bowl or All Pro?) but there can be a  longer lead time than the days of Ogden etc.   It seems to me they leave Williams on Island and he battles and wins alot of times.  

I only consider moving him off LT (unlikely) is if you dump money into FA LT an commit paying him as an elite LT at RT.   IMO, the designation is dated and you simply need to have confidence on the edge one v. one.  to slide protect in either direction.

[AMPHAR]

1 hour ago, HoosierCat said:

I agree, but you know how they have always rolled. We'll see if they pull their heads out of their collective ass this time around.

I don't know.  Would I complain if they dump huge money into a guard?  Nope.   I don't think they will and I'm not necessarily convinced they need to.

Micheal Jordan struggled and the fans were burnt on stories of his potential.   He had a good preseason with the Bengals and started several games with Panthers after his release.   There was a very weak trade market for him.

Adeniji and Carman can't be thrown out, IMO.   Different circumstances.   It was shock to a lot of people that Adeniji even played and rehabing a torn chest muscle is going to set you back.  Carman did have back surgery then took a nasty hit that hurt something in his back.     I just don't think fans should throw a shit fit if they don't throw these two a way and dump $15m into a guard.

 

[AMPHAR]

On 2/15/2022 at 9:12 AM, AMPHAR said:

Pass block win rate was decent at times during the season.   Sunk in late season and post season.      I have seen break downs of some pressure/sacks.    Its really is tough to tell on who to blame.

Ball could be out.   If protection was a little longer a positive play could have happened.   So not sure.    The final sack of the Superbowl is a prime example.  In short:

1. It was combo route on the top.  Success with it earlier.  CB played it well.

2. Flat came open but the CB slow playing it caused Burrow to hesitate.  Ball could have been out (not should have)

3. Donald wins his match up.

4. Chase was in the process of beating his man

boom sack.      Burrow takes a little risk at first probably has a 1st down throw.  Lineman get a half second longer Burrow probably has a throw to Chase for a huge play.  

It was similar vs. strip sack vs Chargers and final play vs. 49ers.   I think the answer is Burrow is going to cause more sacks but at the same time win more times with fantastic plays.

 

Follow back up on this.   I saw this play broken down a couple times.   The conclusion?    Spain you done fucked up, son.   I kid.

Most analysis has the final play of the Superbowl as slide protections towards the Left.  Most likely to deal with Donald.    Which means they will be zone pass pro on the left of the Center's nose.     Donald lined up almost on Jonah so Spain needed to wider on his set and wasn't.   If he was going to get beat he needed to force Donald to beat him inside were his help was with Hopkins. 

If he does you might have had Chase TD to win.   Sickening.    Not to dump on Spain but just to give insight on what went wrong.   NFL network had a break down on how the Rams turnt up the pressure and in summary looping stunts. 

 

 

 

[HoosierCat]

Yeah, Carmen's back is a big question mark for me. Continued issues lingering back (no pun intended) to his senior year and the surgery after are the easiest explanation for his struggles this year, from showing up out of shape to not getting a snap in the Super Bowl even though he had looked OK in a rotation with Adenji previously and Adenji was getting destroyed. It does raise the question of why they didn't activate Fred for the SB instead but maybe they thought Jackson could go and his back gave out at the last minute. I dunno. Anyhow, something to keep an eye on during the offseason.

[Stripes]

I think it’s a flawed premise to anticipate this offseason will mirror past offseasons, especially those pre-Taylor. I understand the mindset, but I think it will prove to be incorrect.

FA OL will be a priority and at costs not generally associated with the past behavior of the front office. The team has one huge glaring hole that, when filled, will immediately sustain this team as a Super Bowl contender. So they’ll fill it. I don’t think that’s wishful thinking. I think it’s stating the obvious.

But we’ll see.

[TJJackson]

well, Oline is 2-4 holes, actually.........

[Stripes]

2 hours ago, TJJackson said:

well, Oline is 2-4 holes, actually.........

Sounds like two free agents and a draft pick.

[ShulaSteakhouse]

Yikes. (sorry if already pointed-out or posted - didn't see it):

"Bengals finished with a 14% pass block win rate, the worst by any team in any game this season."  (ESPN / NFL Next Gen Stats)

https://twitter.com/SethWalder/status/1493058077909737476?s=20&t=kXnyPQKTow8pWVdeGC4VcQ

[ShulaSteakhouse]

4 hours ago, Stripes said:

Sounds like two free agents and a draft pick.

Maybe a couple of draft picks.  MB will approve interior o-line late 1st/2nd round picks, or OT's of course.  They need bodies and depth.  They have to cut bait with 2-3 guys, at least, and they can't all be rookie replacements I guess.

[cincyhokie]

Looks like the early rumors are pointing to the very positive.

https://twitter.com/justeric__/status/1494425447039438850?s=21

[ArmyBengal]

I have faith they get something done sooner rather than later after FA starts. Can’t wait !!

[AMPHAR]

If they do,  I hope it’s a day 1 block buster.   They always screw up an opportunity to build a fan base by going radio silent the first part of FA. 
 

[ShulaSteakhouse]

24 minutes ago, AMPHAR said:

If they do,  I hope it’s a day 1 block buster.   They always screw up an opportunity to build a fan base by going radio silent the first part of FA. 
 

I'm not sure I can excuse "not" making a serious run at the best OT or OG on the FA market, at least.  At this point no reason to think they won't.  And it's interesting, because for once guys should want to come here.  

[HoosierCat]

Well, the consensus best OT is Terron Armstead. But before we go there, let me toss this out: over the past two years, in terms of total contract dollars given to free agents, the Bengals are the league's fourth-highest spender.

Never quite thought I'd anything like that. So props to the FO there.

That said, we all know that total dollars isn't the team's big bugaboo. It's those guaranteed bucks that always pull them up short. So I went and eyeballed the numbers over on spotrac, and the Bengals have laid out in the ballpark of $80 million in guaranteed coin over the past two years. Note I was just considering outside FAs, so Reader, Waynes, Awuzie, Hilton, Hendrickson, Ogun, Reiff, etc. 

So the Bengals appear to be pretty comfortable in the $40 million guaranteed range for outside FAs. Not saying they might not be willing to bump the number up a bit this year, but that gets us back to Armstead. Right now, sportrac has his market value at 4 years, $95 million and change. Needless to say, the guarantees on a contract like that would more than exhaust what the Bengals seem willing to pay. Again, not saying they might not do if they feel like he's THE missing piece.But that would almost certainly be it for FA.

On the OG side, the top guy is Brandon Scherff. PFF has their own contract projections out and Andrew Russell teased a few on twitter (they're all behind the pff paywall otherwise). They have Scherff getting a deal with an average annual value of $16.6 million.So something like 4 years,$66 million. Guaranteed there would be low 30s. That's better, would give them room to bring back Spain and Reiff if he wants to. That would put their guaranteed coin payout in the mid to upper 40s.

Tough to see them paying that kind of money for a guard, but it is far more conceivable than Armstead imo.

A more interesting target to me would be Jets OT Morgan Moses. Like Armstead he's 30 and he's not a pro bowler but PFF graded him out at 71 last season so he's not bad. More importantly he's a rock. Hasn't missed a game since his rookie season. Sportrac puts his AAV at $7.7 million per. Basically you could sign him to start, sign Reiff to a repeat deal to back up both OT spots, and probably keep the combined guaranteed coin there under $20 million. That leaves room to re-up Spain too and still pursue just about any other G not named Scherff (Corbitt?).

I think that's the way the Bengals will go. They won't play at the very top outside of courtesy phone calls, but will be looking pretty close to it. Now, can they move fast enough to get deals done? We'll see.

[TJJackson]

Moses was the player that became available very late in the 2021FA period that the Bengals should have picked up immediately

but instead, they sat on their hands

this single non-action was what pissed me off the most about 2021 free agency and is why comments like the one Taylor recently set me off easily

Any OL grading 70 or higher (or our scouting departments equivalent) , regardless of which of the 5 spots they play, should be on the Bengals list to invite, screen, and evaluate

I repeat, ANY of them, ANY spot

with one major exception

the OL has to have a good health record.  No use signing an OL (any player, really) who cant make it through a full season.

[membengal]

they didn't sit on their hands, TJ, stop making shit up. They had already signed Reiff for RT. 

[AMPHAR]

NFL Talk is reporting rumor that Bengals are interested in Orlando Brown Jr.     I always a assume this rumor comes from agents doing their job in stroking up flames for his market.    This would be the home run signing IF it happens. 

 

 

[AMPHAR]

7 minutes ago, membengal said:

they didn't sit on their hands, TJ, stop making shit up. They had already signed Reiff for RT. 

and the line played much better when Reiff was starting vs. the playoffs.

 

 

 

[ArmyBengal]

I love this conversation by the way and appreciate everyone's perspective.

Orlando Brown wanted to leave Baltimore in order to get a starting LEFT tackle position.  He did NOT want to play on the right side.
While I personally wouldn't care, many seem to have concerns with Jonah moving to the right side.

Regarding Armstead, I think it depends on whose projections we want to listen to.  PFF has a contract projection of:
3 Year, 60 miliion (20 per), with 43.75 million guaranteed.  More than their comfort zone ??  Probably, but maybe not given the situation.

I haven't looked too much from a grade standpoint.  I'm going to take a peek and see what it looks like.

[membengal]

Not only that, but it is borderline inconceivable that the Chiefs would trade for him and then let him walk right away. They will at a minimum tag him. 

[AMPHAR]

41 minutes ago, membengal said:

Not only that, but it is borderline inconceivable that the Chiefs would trade for him and then let him walk right away. They will at a minimum tag him. 

Makes sense, but they will have to do cap Olympics before tagging.   Tag will be in $16-17mil range.  Chiefs reportedly have less than $15m with 25 UFA to deal with/replace.  
 

They are definitely losing vets this season.