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TJJackson

2021 Overall Draft Grade

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1 hour ago, princeton said:

more likely he's taking exception to my statement that Jonah Williams is no Andrew Whitworth. 

I didn't watch the Ossai/Jenkins tape that you mentioned. Pretty bad, eh? 

You should watch it, it is enlightening and concerning.  Now that being said, there is also quite alot of very good Ossai tape and he is very highly regarded in evaluation circles.  I am not saying it was a bad pick or that he will be a bad player for us, I just have concerns and would have very much preferred them to go oline at that draft position.

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22 minutes ago, princeton said:

Whit was an iron man (and still is); Jonah lacks Lap's most valued ability: availability. Bengals needed an upgrade and didn't get it. Look out, Joe Burrows

I was interested in Colts' Chris Ballard saying that he didn't draft a LT, in spite of the team's extreme need, because it was a good draft for right tackles but not for left tackles. Top LTs, and even pretty good LTs, are rare

Jonah's lack of playing time is the big issue.  For sure.

I'll just point out he probably could have played in a few more games but they held him out because there was simply nothing to play for.  That's speculation but I think it was a reality in both 2019 and 2020.

But yes, the Bengals big question along the OL remains depth IF you assume the injury history continues.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Wraith said:

You should watch it, it is enlightening and concerning.  Now that being said, there is also quite alot of very good Ossai tape and he is very highly regarded in evaluation circles.  I am not saying it was a bad pick or that he will be a bad player for us, I just have concerns and would have very much preferred them to go oline at that draft position.

sounds like I don't want to see it, and that we should have drafted Jenkins

it's a pretty bizarre year-- several players opted out, many seasons were shorter, and players that did play had odd practice schedules due to COVID. Zoom meetings stink. The Bengals, like a lot of teams, put a lot of emphasis of Senior Bowl performance, which is such a small sample set.

Some of the teams that excel at drafting will do much more poorly than usual, due to lack of data. But since the Bengals do NOT excel at drafting, maybe we'll wind up on top for a change?

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46 minutes ago, princeton said:

sounds like I don't want to see it, and that we should have drafted Jenkins

it's a pretty bizarre year-- several players opted out, many seasons were shorter, and players that did play had odd practice schedules due to COVID. Zoom meetings stink. The Bengals, like a lot of teams, put a lot of emphasis of Senior Bowl performance, which is such a small sample set.

Some of the teams that excel at drafting will do much more poorly than usual, due to lack of data. But since the Bengals do NOT excel at drafting, maybe we'll wind up on top for a change?

Bengals in the last several years have been above average at drafting.

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1 hour ago, Wraith said:

You should watch it, it is enlightening and concerning.  Now that being said, there is also quite alot of very good Ossai tape and he is very highly regarded in evaluation circles.  I am not saying it was a bad pick or that he will be a bad player for us, I just have concerns and would have very much preferred them to go oline at that draft position.

Ossai strikes me as one of those guys who is going to have one or two just insane games a year, where he racks up multiple sacks, TFLs, a turnover, etc., and then he just more or less disappears the rest of time.

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17 minutes ago, Wraith said:

Bengals in the last several years have been above average at drafting.

haha. Good one. 

 

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17 minutes ago, HoosierCat said:

Ossai strikes me as one of those guys who is going to have one or two just insane games a year, where he racks up multiple sacks, TFLs, a turnover, etc., and then he just more or less disappears the rest of time.

Sounds like Carl Lawson to me.

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2 minutes ago, Stripes said:

Sounds like Carl Lawson to me.

I was thinking more like MJ.

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2 hours ago, Wraith said:

Agreed.  Carman is our RT  for the future IMHO.  Reiff is a VERY solid player and is durable, I think Williams development has been retarded by our oline coaching.  This is the year Williams breaks out IMHO.  Very positive about the oline starting 2021, wasn't the case this time last year.

I disagree Carman is a G, Dante Smith is the developmental RT

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27 minutes ago, HoosierCat said:

Ossai strikes me as one of those guys who is going to have one or two just insane games a year, where he racks up multiple sacks, TFLs, a turnover, etc., and then he just more or less disappears the rest of time.

that is what a rotational edge rusher is supposed to be

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Super glad we didn't select Rashad Weaver with one of our 4th round picks...

 

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“Sources say the Titans were targeting Tyler Shelvin in the fourth, but he was taken by Cincinnati, forcing Tennessee to select Weaver. Thus the presence of another thug criminal in the league is really the fault of the Bungles, as always.” — Mike Florio, tomorrow, probably.

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I give the overall draft a B.

The consensus on the grade seems to hinge on taking Chase as opposed to Sewell as well as taking Carman as opposed to a higher graded OT.

My take, and guess, is that the Bengals graded Chase as having more of an impact long term than Sewell given they plan on drafting an OT in the first round in 2022. I’m thinking they’re banking on Reiff plus a OT/G in Carman being enough to make it to 2022 where they’ll land a top OT in 2022. 

This way they get in Chase a generational game changer while feeling confident Carman will make a difference at guard. If this is their long term plan and they get a stud at OT next year, then this year’s draft grade could be an A by 2023.

Remember, the Bengals got heat for passing on QB (Haskins) for Jonah Williams. Only to take Burrow in 2020. How’d that work out?

Can we see a replay in the 2022 draft that makes us forget about Sewell? We’ll see. 

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Borrowing someone else's format here :-)

Overall Grade: C-

1 (5): Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU:  PFF Prospect Overall Rank 6 (first of the WR class), Dane Brugler Overall Rank 4 (first of the WR class)

I was never sold 100% on any of the so-called elite picks, which was in part why I was on #TeamTradedown in the weeks leading up to the draft, but i did concede that the odds said we were more likely to get an impact OL at 38 than an impact outside WR, and this alone was the reason why I preferred Chase over Sewell at 5.  Tradedown then Chase then Pitts then Sewell.  So when Chase was selected, there was neither anguish nor joy for me.  The 5th pick was no longer (for me) the key pick of the draft, rather, the key pick was 38 followed closely by 69, both of which needed to be, yep, you know it, you love it, GIMME A LINEMAN.    So I give this pick a C+ simply because I dont think we maximized value here, despite opportunities to do so

Pick Grade: C+

2 (46): Jackson Carman, G/T, Clemson:  PFF Prospect Overall Rank 48 (10th best Tackle), Dane Brugler Overall Rank 90 (8 best Guard)

so if you read above, this pick had to be a dominant OL.  More specifically, if you read anything I typed in the previous two weeks, you know how I felt: that it really needed to be a OL who could play ORG this year and take over ORT next year.  I am certain that Carman can be our starter at ORG for 2021, but I think it ends there. I dont think he has what it takes to succeed as a ORT at this level.  I've heard him speak, and I like the person......seems humble and grounded.  And there's nothing wrong with getting an expected starter at ORG (or any position) in round 2.  But......I wanted more, and with Sam Cosmi still available at that point in the draft, I believe we had the chance to do better......Cosmi could have made the move to ORT in 2022 in my opinon and played ORG this year.  So while they didnt absolutely blow this pick, imo, they could have (and should have) done better.   Cosmi would have been an A+ in my book.  I am increasing my grade for this pick by a full point for the extra picks received in the trade (even though they did not do well with those extra picks the gained with the trade)

Pick Grade: B+

3 (69):  Joseph Ossai, OLB/Edge, Texas: PFF Prospect Overall Rank 60 (9th best Edge), Dane Brugler Overall Rank 46 (8th best Edge)

Because they picked a less than good OL in round 2, and because that pick left us uncovered at ORT in 2022, I felt this pick had to be a ORT.  No ifs, ands, or buts.   Well, it wasnt.  I like  Ossai a bit, tho as others have pointed out the Tevens Jenkins take is concerning.  I will also freely admit that passrushing DE is a need, probably our third biggest need going into this draft.  So typically, I would like this pick a LOT......got a fringe starter at a position of need, and the cherry on the sundae.....its a LINEMAN.   But for the reason stated in the first sentence of this part, I hate this pick.  Not the player, the pick.   Meinerz would have been good, even though he's not a OT.  Mayfield would have worked, damn those Falcons for taking him one pick ahead of us.  Hudson, Spencer Brown, or Brady Christiansen would have worked here.  I would have also liked Kendrick Green better, though he is an IOL

Pick Grade: C-

4 (111): Cam Sample, 3 Technique/Edge, Tulane: PFF Prospect Overall Rank 88 Overall (13th best Edge), Dane Brugler Overall Rank -- (Brugler only grades up to 100 in his big board) 18th Best Edge

This is another one where I don't hate the player, but I hate the pick.  We had just taken Ossai, so I see the need at passrushing DE as filled.  and to make matters worse, since the Bengals did not take a OT in round 3, from my point of view, that absolutely needed to happen at this pick.  Instead they filled a hole that was already filled.   I like Cam Sample the player and hope he contributes for many years.....heck, I hope he becomes a star.  But he doesnt passblock and I saw this pick as the last one where we had a chance of picking up a starter for the OL.  That said, I cant penalize this pick for the same reason I used above....ie if they had picked correctly at 69, there'd be little to none of these outside issues with this pick.  I will say I would have preferred Elerson Smith or Jordan Smith for the selected role/position

Pick Grade: B-

I am writing my evaluation from scratch here because I was rating this guy as a DE, or as it is more commonly said of late, Edge.  I now believe his intended spot is pass rushing DT, specifically the 3TDT spot manned for so long and so well by Geno.  The pick is a lot more understandable this way, and stuff I have read since my initial evaluation leads me to believe that this is what the Bengals see him as. That said, a number of sources still see him as an outside guy.  But...he does seem to be more suited to me to playing inside in pretty much every way I can see except his weight.  Geno was a little light playing at 295-300, and this guy is only 275, so he needs to add a lot of good weight to his frame quickly, but hes a bit taller than Geno so he has a bigger frame to work with.  It is impressive that he was named the Defensive MVP of the Senior Bowl and best DL of the practice week.  That said, he didnt test well relative to that success.  And why if he was all that did he play at Tulane instead of a stronger program?  I expect we will see him at a 290 pounds or more by the time the preseason games roll around, and playing inside.  I do have to add that I like the versatility here......experience playing both inside and outside.   I do see it as strongly possible that come preseason game 3, you might see Khalid Kareem let go since he pretty much is a run fending DE only with little in the way of pass rushing ability, and they use this guy in his place.

(edited) Pick Grade: B

4 (122): Tyler Shelvin, NT, LSU: PFF Prospect Overall Rank 116 Overall (10th best IDL), Dane Brugler Position Rank 12th among IDL

I do feel we could use another DT in the draft this year, in fact I tended to project the 5th pick (which became this pick because of the trade in r2) as a DT in mock drafts I did

....but....

I was looking at 3TDT, not NT.  I dont think we need a NT.  Unless theres a problem we dont know about with DJ Reader.  Since I dont know of any such problem, I see this as a horrid waste of a pick.  Dan Moore would have been my pick here - a player with a chance to be our ORT

Pick Grade: F

4 (139): D'Ante Smith, T, East Carolina: PFF Prospect Overall Rank 179 (19th best Tackle), Dane Brugler Position Rank 11 (86 overall)

We have developmental OTs already.  Two of them.  Both with some starts under their belt to boot.  We need potential starters in r4, not developmental guys like this guy

Pick Grade: F

5 (149): Evan McPherson, K, Florida: PFF Prospect Overall Rank N/A (PFF doesn't grade specialists), Dane Brugler Position Rank 1

I'd been talking in the offseason about the age at long snapper and punter, and mused that with the heir apparent at LS already on the roster (Godsil) that we might target punter with a fairly low draft pick, say a 6th or 7th rounder.  On the other hand, the Bengals thought highly enough of Seibert to use a valuable roster spot to keep him on the team and not on the practice squad where he could be picked off at any time.  Why oh why then did they pick a kicker after showing such confidence in Seibert in 2020, particularly at the end of the year when he got the snaps and Fat Randy was benched.  Makes no fuckin sense to me.  I think this guy has a 50/50 shot at making the roster, and if not, another team will pull a Jake Elloit and win the superbowl with him.  Despite Simmons claims that he couldnt wait til round 6.  I say they should have waited til round 6 and picked up a deep speed WR like Fehoko or Stevenson here instead

Pick Grade: D+

6 (190): Trey Hill, C/G, Georgia: PFF Prospect Overall Rank 266 (8th best Center), Dane Brugler Position Rank 8

A developmental OG/OC.  We do need a developmental OG/OC.  Solid value in r6.  I do think Marquez Stevenson would have been a better pick here, tho

Pick Grade: B

6 (202): Chris Evans, RB, Michigan: PFF Prospect Overall Rank 106 (7th best RB), Dane Brugler Position Rank 14

Tremendously gifted athlete with some off the field issues with a late round pick.  Bernard Scott, anyone?  Will they allow him to carry a vibranium shield on the field?   He seems like a kid badly in need of a second chance and he will hopefully he will straighten out his off the field issues to earn that chance with the Bengals

Pick Grade: B

7 (235):  Wyatt Hubert, Edge, Kansas St:  PFF Prospect Overall Rank - Not ranked in the top 300, Dane Brugler Position Rank 34

I havent read a single good thing about this guy, but Joe Goodberry seems to like him.  I pray he is a special teams demon, as I dont see any other way aside from injury to get him on the roster

Pick Grade: F

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You are so fucking bad at this. 

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16 minutes ago, membengal said:

You are so fucking bad at this. 

We dont tend to see eye to eye on the final results, ever :-)

I did complain about the lack of high quality OL picks last year, and well, the Knee........

I dont think we did enough in FA or the Draft to protect him this year either

If I had to boil down my evaluation to one line, it'd be that

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It’s fine TJ. Maybe four years from now your views won’t look pessimistic. The only thing that I think you got wrong was McPhearson (wrong as in independent of your opinion, which can validly be anything — I disagree with much more). I think we’ve already received evidence contrary to Jake Elliot part 2.

This does suggest however that you may never, ever like a Bengals draft. Even if they give you lots of linemen, it will always be unlikely that it’s the exact specific linemen you wanted. I can’t imagine you’re one to get your hopes up, and perhaps you never should. :P

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I mean - I wanted them to hammer the back of the WR room. Should I meltdown and give them an F because they only got Chase and their approach differed from mine even though their approach makes sense? 

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Reader missed 11 games last year and the Bengals had the third worst run D in the league but Shelvin is an F. Ok.

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Yes.  Give them an F. 

I think you know someone has entered crazy town.  

Anyway Bengals were once again gifted a WR.   Higgins last year thanks to some dumb assery in GB that has now set their franchise upside down.   Then 9ers/Dolphins gifting Chase to them.

If Chase plays to the level of his draft profile AND nobody else does crap this draft is no worse than a B.   In reality teams drafting at the bottom of the round are going to have a hard time beating that impact.

 

 

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32 minutes ago, HoosierCat said:

Reader missed 11 games last year and the Bengals had the third worst run D in the league but Shelvin is an F. Ok.

I mean, right? Reader, coming off a torn quad, and only thing behind him is Tupou (who took a year off) and Wren (who has NEVER been healthy) - Shelvin actually addressed a screaming need on this team AND...he's actually really good at what he does too. He is EXACTLY the kind of player the team needed and they got him at his appropriate value range. It's a fucking great pick. 

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While I've not bothered with grades, I am sitting here trying to find a pick that I truly do not like. I'm not really the orange-colored glasses sort, and yet I am struggling to find one. If I really stretch hard I might be able to find a gripe with Ossai, just given that he struggled most against NFL-caliber opposition. That doesn't feel like a meaningful insight to me though and I don't care about it. I am cool with that pick too. Perhaps on the same note I am not ecstatic about any pick either (I rarely am save for Joe Burrow; I'm dead inside). They're all just solid, quality picks or at least acceptable. My favorite pick of the lot, at least relative to draft position, might even be Shelvin.

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23 hours ago, princeton said:

more likely he's taking exception to my statement that Jonah Williams is no Andrew Whitworth. 

I didn't watch the Ossai/Jenkins tape that you mentioned. Pretty bad, eh? 

I just watch Ossai V Jenkins.  For the whole game it was a 50-50 battle.  Ossai got the game clinching sack against Jenkins, and was beat badly on a play where he was tripped from the right and tripped from the left by his own teammates.

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TJ Pro Football network had Dante Smith rated as their #3 OG prospect in this draft, with OT starter possibilities.  If he and Carman are the starting G's this line just got much better and there are two possible OT in training.  He is the steal of this draft for me.

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