Draft Pick Watch

[COB]

1 hour ago, AMPHAR said:

Mayock not a huge fan of any QB in the top 10.     Good for the AJ trade scenario.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000784491/article/mayock-id-be-scared-to-death-to-draft-qb-in-top-10-this-year

 

 

This is something the NFL should address.  As I've blabbed on and on about, the way the game has evolved, the way the rules have evolved, and the way the players have physically developed, has resulted in the quarterback occupying a disproportionate, artificial, position.

The QB in today's NFL represents too much of a team's potential for success.  There is not a scale for these things, I'm just making this up, and setting forth my belief as to how much responsibility one position should shoulder in a team game.  Whatever that amount of responsibility is, the NFL QB way exceeds it.

If you are a fan of a team that doesn't have a legit QB, and you go read Mayock's review of your potential QBs, what are you supposed to think?  What you can think, and the reality that you can face, is that your team is going to suck, you have no hope, and maybe you can find some entertainment value in watching the half of the league that has a QB beating your ass for the foreseeable future.  

[HoosierCat]

Hobson does his first media mock.

http://www.bengals.com/news/article-1/Never-too-early-to-mock/73368b90-4e60-430e-b1c5-cb234ea645e6

He picks DE Derek Barnett over Fournette, Foster and Hooker. My gut says that would be a mistake. It's a pretty deep draft for pass rushers and I'd hate to take the third DE over the top LB or RB.

[COB]

It will be interesting to see them pick that linebacker then watch the kid sit while they play Marvin's gay lover FNR.

[HoosierCat]

Barnett has sort of the same issue, unless they dump MJ. Do you spend the 9 on a rotational DE? Hooker, also, since Iloka and Williams look pretty much locked into the starting jobs. And of course they would have to be ready to move on from hill if they take an RB.

Now, OT and CB we can find PT for...sigh.

[Wraith]

I am all in on Reuben Foster at #9.  Pairing Foster with Burfict and Vigil will get us the athleticism and the flexibility we need to restore the defense back to its former glory. 

[HoosierCat]

I'm coming around on Foster. By all accounts he is going to be a great player and LB has been a weakness on D for a long time. The only real objection I can raise is to question whether a LB will provide the immediate impact I crave. A top receiver or RB or pass-rusher stands a better chance of moving the needle now than a LB or safety or OT. But there are no guarantees, draft is a crap shoot, etc., so  could easily be wrong about that. It just sticks in my mind.

[AMPHAR]

I've warmed up on Foster.  At first,  I was totally against it.    I still favor the offensive impact players first that are currently projected top 10. 

Hands down I would take another Burfict type LB in the top 10.   Foster has been described to be able to make that type of impact.

If you look at the recent past in the way they use LBs though it doesn't scream top 10 priority.   They rotate them based on match up and down/distance.   They fake a lot of A gap blitzes.   Use a lot of zone coverage.

A top 10 LB better challenge for 80-90% of snaps and be able to survive in more man to man situations and also have the ability to get there IF they send him.

If not, there's plenty of role playing LBs to be had later.

[Wraith]

The issue I had with our D last year was how slow we were to hitting our spots.  Our guys were reading the right things and making the right decisions but were a step slow getting to ball carrier and unfortunately that meant a lot of poor tacking angles and missed opportunities.  3-4 of those in a game means the difference between winning and losing.

 

What strikes me about Foster is how sudden he is.  He is decisive in his decision making and when he makes up his mind he has the athleticism to get to the ball carrier.  The problem I see with FNR, and with LNR as well, is they do the right thing, they make the right read but cannot make the play because it looks like they are running in sand.  Foster is adept playing the run and the pass and has great instincts on the blitz.  Pair him with Burfict and you have the makings of something truly special, I am not sure I can say that about any other potential draft selection in this draft.

[ArmyBengal]

I know most Bengals fans don't care for Shazier, the Steelers LB, but he was the same way at Ohio State that Foster has been.
Fast, instinctive, and willing to throw his hat in the mix.  While I hate the Steelers, Shazier disrupts an offense.
Have another player capable of making an impact  in the front 7 and that translates positively for a defense lacking there in 2016.

Outside of Myles Garrett, who won't be there at #9, Foster has been my top target since the jump.
That being said, I have little faith the Bengals make the pick and if they do, start him over Maualuga.

[HoosierCat]

2 hours ago, AMPHAR said:

If you look at the recent past in the way they use LBs though it doesn't scream top 10 priority.   They rotate them based on match up and down/distance.   They fake a lot of A gap blitzes.   Use a lot of zone coverage.

A top 10 LB better challenge for 80-90% of snaps and be able to survive in more man to man situations and also have the ability to get there IF they send him.

Yup. And that's increasingly the book on Foster, that he can be a true three-down backer who can rush, play the run and cover.

1 hour ago, Wraith said:

The issue I had with our D last year was how slow we were to hitting our spots.  Our guys were reading the right things and making the right decisions but were a step slow getting to ball carrier and unfortunately that meant a lot of poor tacking angles and missed opportunities.  3-4 of those in a game means the difference between winning and losing.

Sad but true. LB desperately needs an infusion of speed and youth. Roach just bailed, Dawson has been a flop, Dansby is 35, FNR just turned 30 and LNR will be 30 in September. When Nick Vigil is The Big Young Hope, you've got issues (and don't get me wrong,I like Vigil, but he's not Superman).

57 minutes ago, ArmyBengal said:

I know most Bengals fans don't care for Shazier, the Steelers LB, but he was the same way at Ohio State that Foster has been.
Fast, instinctive, and willing to throw his hat in the mix.  While I hate the Steelers, Shazier disrupts an offense.

Which is why it drives me nuts to see Hobson complain that Foster isn't the big backer the Bengals prefer. Hey, smaller, faster guys seem to work out OK for Pitt, but what do they know, right?

[AMPHAR]

21 hours ago, HoosierCat said:

Hobson does his first media mock.

http://www.bengals.com/news/article-1/Never-too-early-to-mock/73368b90-4e60-430e-b1c5-cb234ea645e6

He picks DE Derek Barnett over Fournette, Foster and Hooker. My gut says that would be a mistake. It's a pretty deep draft for pass rushers and I'd hate to take the third DE over the top LB or RB.

Derek Barnett supposedly could fall to the second round.   Not there are ever any absolutes based on pre draft coverage but in a lot of places he's further down than top 10.

I just saw him mocked to the Lions at 21.   

[Wraith]

Of course if we are having this conversation about Foster, the folks 1-8 are too....It would not surprise me to see him go 6 or 7.  I concur about Barnett, there are ALOT of quality pass rushers in this draft.

[HoosierCat]

Yeah, Foster could be gone. I expect things will tighten up as we get closer to draft day, but this year it seems like it's a little more uncertain how the early picks will fall out.

Myles Garrett will be gone. Probably first overall to Cleveland, which sucks. Jonathan Allen should go top 5 easy. Jamal Adams will be gone. But after those three there's a lot of variance in in the other five guys coming off the board before the Bengals pick.

Foster, Fournette, Cook, Hooker, Thomas, Kizer, Watson, Trubisky, Lattimore, Williams, Davis, I've seen all these guys mocked in the top 8 in addition to the three above. And since 14 guys aren't going in the top 8...

Would definitely help if a couple teams ahead of Cincy fell in love with a QB.

[ArmyBengal]

See, that's just it, I would be happy with a few different scenarios.
Foster is my #1 want, but if he goes sooner (and he may) that pushes someone else down.
One of the top two DE's ??  A top RB ??  The top WR ??

I still say option #2 should be Williams.  Pairing him with AJ, while sliding Boyd to the slot, would be monstrous.
They could bring back LaFell and the pick would still make sense.  AJ, Williams, LaFell, and Boyd would be a 1-4 that's tough.

It's just that the defense (especially the LB's) needs a playmaker more in my opinion.
Anyone ready for another season of Dansby, FNR, and Burfict ??
UNINSPIRING !!!

[Walrus]

I've been a Thomas guy because I think he'd make our D-line elite again, but I'm beginning to come around on Foster because I'm wary of Burfict's ability to play a full season. He's one man-tantrum away from an indefinite vacation. That is a massive weakness we can't ignore.

Now, Foster alone can't replace him. There probably is no player in this draft class that could have the same impact. What we need is elite-ness - which brings me back to Thomas.

[AMPHAR]

As for DE.   I would love it.    However you have to recognize the conservative role the Bengals DEs have.     Dunlap doesn't challenge 20 sacks in a season mark because of lack of effort or talent.   Nor is he getting double teamed all the time.

The Bengals have their ends set the edge, contain, and play for tip balls.   They don't sell out for QB pressures.   

I'm all for getting an edge rusher but you got to know that opportunities to pin the ears back and not worry about anything else but killing the QB will be limited under Lewis, IMO.

Or maybe I'm just biased towards taking the offensive skill spot this year and I'm making things up. 

 

 

[HoosierCat]

18 minutes ago, AMPHAR said:

As for DE.   I would love it.    However you have to recognize the conservative role the Bengals DEs have.     Dunlap doesn't challenge 20 sacks in a season mark because of lack of effort or talent.   Nor is he getting double teamed all the time.

The Bengals have their ends set the edge, contain, and play for tip balls.   They don't sell out for QB pressures.   

I'm all for getting an edge rusher but you got to know that opportunities to pin the ears back and not worry about anything else but killing the QB will be limited under Lewis, IMO.

Or maybe I'm just biased towards taking the offensive skill spot this year and I'm making things up. 

No, you're right. This is why all the "Bustin" Smith types used to annoy me to no end. That said, the changes to the game in terms of what DBs can do have forced them to get more aggressive in recent years. And whatever he's being asked to do, MJ isn't getting it done, Hunt's junk and Clarke is backup-caliber.

But yeah, between how the Bengals traditionally like to use DE and how deep the draft is at the position, it's not hard to make the argument for looking elsewhere.

My nightmare scenario is that some team with a metric crap ton of cap space like Cleveland makes some crazy offer to Whit, like 2 years and $40 million, and they (probably rightfully) panic and reach for an OT at 9.

[AMPHAR]

1 hour ago, HoosierCat said:

No, you're right. This is why all the "Bustin" Smith types used to annoy me to no end. That said, the changes to the game in terms of what DBs can do have forced them to get more aggressive in recent years. And whatever he's being asked to do, MJ isn't getting it done, Hunt's junk and Clarke is backup-caliber.

But yeah, between how the Bengals traditionally like to use DE and how deep the draft is at the position, it's not hard to make the argument for looking elsewhere.

My nightmare scenario is that some team with a metric crap ton of cap space like Cleveland makes some crazy offer to Whit, like 2 years and $40 million, and they (probably rightfully) panic and reach for an OT at 9.

Justin Smith was exactly what I was thinking.   High quality defender and player often treated as a bad pick because of his sack numbers.

 

[Walrus]

1 hour ago, AMPHAR said:

Justin Smith was exactly what I was thinking.   High quality defender and player often treated as a bad pick because of his sack numbers.

...you're not the only ones with Smith on the brain... http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/profiles/solomon-thomas?id=2558018

[ArmyBengal]

Funny thing about draft picks.
I went looking at the most accurate mocks from 2016 and found something interesting.
Between ESPN, SI, NFL.com and many others, the majority had Andrew Billings going in the 21-28 range.
He was the biggest mock buster last year since he fell to the 4th.

If you were to ask me to give you a player i'm looking forward to seeing in 2017, Billings is it.
I just want to see them upgrade what is probably the worst LB corps in the league.
Those guys defined the word "slow" last year.

Give me Foster.

[HoosierCat]

I agree that Billing's has a great chance to be an instant impact guy, assuming they cut the cord with Peko and let him play. He fell in the draft because he wasn't seen as a pass rusher, but more of an "anchor" guy in the middle, and because of his youth and (presumably) need for mentoring. That latter issue shouldn't be one now.

[Scottishbengal]

On 21/11/2016 at 5:42 PM, AMPHAR said:

Tobin and company aren't high on taking 4-3 lbs with premium picks. 

The Bengals won't take a LB with the first pick. They're more likely to go with DE/DT as they don't use LBs as sack-machines, they expect the D-line to obtain the sacks/pressure and leave the LBs to just block the hole, hence the unconditional love given to FNR as a run stuffing mo-fo.

2016 sacks by the Bengals was 33: 

D-Line: MJ (3.5), Dunlap (8), Atkins (9), Sims (1.5), Clarke (4), Gilberry (2.5), Williams (0.5), 

LBs: Burfict (2), Dansby (1),

DBs: Williams (1), 

The NFL's top 4 in number of sacks last year? Beasley 15.5, Miller 13.5, Alexander and Golden both 12.5 ......all of 'em LBs !!!

[kingwilly]

On February 15, 2017 at 3:46 PM, ArmyBengal said:

Funny thing about draft picks.
I went looking at the most accurate mocks from 2016 and found something interesting.
Between ESPN, SI, NFL.com and many others, the majority had Andrew Billings going in the 21-28 range.
He was the biggest mock buster last year since he fell to the 4th.

If you were to ask me to give you a player i'm looking forward to seeing in 2017, Billings is it.
I just want to see them upgrade what is probably the worst LB corps in the league.
Those guys defined the word "slow" last year.

Give me Foster.

I can be convinced re Foster but his shoulder injury gives me concern. That's also why they could take him, let him sit and hope he heals. This continues the trend of the team taking players they don't put huge pressure on to start right away, which is dumb imho.

[Scottishbengal]

4 hours ago, kingwilly said:

I can be convinced re Foster but his shoulder injury gives me concern. That's also why they could take him, let him sit and hope he heals. 

Ooogly-boogly ~#2 ???......take a crocked player and keep yer fingers crossed

 

Best thing they can do is rejuvenate the coaching corps !!!

[Wraith]

On 11/21/2016 at 9:16 PM, HoosierCat said:

To use a term I generally dislike but which I think fits in this case, the problem with their defensive drafting is that they got away from their identity. What made this current D successful in recent years was the front four and, more broadly, the dline rotation. A ferocious line let them get away with an average back 7. But then they got on a CB kick with those premium picks and let the line decay. I think they got a little overconfident in their ability to find later round dline help after Carlos and Geno. And as COB once suggested they started eyeballing the high price positions like corner and thought they could get a cycle going where they would never have to pay that second contract thanks to the rookie salary slotting system. But the corners haven't panned out like they hoped, the line has atrophied, and the LBs have been patched with the bad old system of poor character guys and old washed up dudes. This draft would be a good time to get back to buffing the dline and pass rush.

Ok, but i can make the argument thar Seattle has changed defensive thinking.  More emphasis on fast smallish lbers or large hybrid safeties that can play run, rush the passer, and cover are now a premium in the NFL.   Being too hide bound to a system is a mistake