Clinching Scenarios

[cincyhokie]

Playing around with the playoff predictor.  http://www.nfl.com/playoffs/playoff-picture/predictor

If the Bengals win one more AFC game, either at Denver or at home vs.Baltimore, the Bengals are AFCN champs.  Regardless if Pittsburgh wins out or not.  

The Bengals and Steelers can finish both 11-5 and as long as the Bengals have one more AFC win, they'll have the tie breaker over the Steelers for the division crown.

If the Steelers do win out (Denver, at Baltimore, at Cleveland) and the Bengals can at least beat Denver or Baltimore, they'll win the AFCN and host Pittsburgh in the first round.

If the Steelers drop one more game and the Bengals win one more game, the AFCN is over and the Bengals clinch at least the #3 seed.  We definitely want to see Denver beat the Steelers tomorrow and the Bengals win.  If the Ravens can beat the Steelers the next week in Baltimore (will be Baltimore's superbowl), then it would appear the Jets and Bengals would match up in Cincinnati in the WC round, assuming the Bengals lose in Denver.  I'd take that.

If the Bengals can beat Denver and Baltimore, they'll clinch the #2 seed regardless of what Denver does against Pittsburgh and San Diego.

BLUF....beat Baltimore at the very least and win the division.  

A very likely scenario is that the Bengals win the next 2 of 3 while losing in Denver.  The Steelers can lose 1 of the next 3 and still get that #6 seed as long as the Patriots beat the Jets (likely to happen).

Most likely scenario?

The Bengals host Pittsburgh in the WC round in Cincinnati.  

Second most likely scenario?

The Bengals beat Denver and finish the year at 12-4 or 13-3 for the #2 seed and a bye.

Third most likely scenario?

Pittsburgh stumbles losing 2 of 3 setting up a Jets at Bengals WC matchup.

 

[Earendil]

If the Bengals have to play the Steelers in the playoffs, I don't know if I can watch.  They will be out to injure everyone.

[redsbengalsbucks]

Stealers thugs at it again today.  Bunch of late hitting A holes.

[cincyhokie]

So now the playoff predictors have the Bengals showing they've clinched the division.  I've crunched the schedule numbers and it looks like the Steelers and Bengals would have to use the 5th tiebreaker to decide the division.   

Strength of victory.  

Though I have no idea how this breaks down.  That's all I got.  

[HoosierCat]

so we just need to beat Denver or Baltimore. Need to beat Denver for the bye.

[cincyhokie]

2 minutes ago, HoosierCat said:

so we just need to beat Denver or Baltimore. Need to beat Denver for the bye.

Twitter is so awesome.

The Bengals have it all hanging out there for them, for sure.

Here we go.  #2 seed on the line.  Monday Night Football.

[HoosierCat]

AFC clinching scenarios for next week:

CLINCHED: New England -- AFC East + first-round bye

CLINCHED: Cincinnati -- playoff berth

 

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (at New York Jets, Sunday) 

New England clinches homefield advantage throughout AFC playoffs: 

1) NE win 

2) NE tie + CIN loss or tie

 

CINCINNATI BENGALS (at Denver, Monday) 

Cincinnati clinches AFC North division:

1) CIN win or tie 

2) PIT loss or tie

Cincinnati clinches a first-round bye:

1) CIN win or tie

 

DENVER BRONCOS (vs. Cincinnati, Sunday)

Denver clinches AFC West division:

1) DEN win + KC loss or tie

2) DEN tie + KC loss

Denver clinches a playoff berth:

1) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie

2) DEN win + PIT loss or tie

3) DEN tie + NYJ loss

4) DEN tie + PIT loss

 

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (vs. Cleveland, Sunday)

Kansas City clinches a playoff berth:

1) KC win + NYJ loss

2) KC win + PIT loss

 

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (at Baltimore, Sunday) 

Pittsburgh clinches a playoff berth:

1) PIT win + NYJ loss

 

HOUSTON TEXANS (at Tennessee, Sunday) 

Houston clinches AFC South division:

1) HOU win + IND loss

[ArmyBengal]

JUST
BEAT
DENVER

[Scottishbengal]

15 minutes ago, ArmyBengal said:

JUST
BEAT
DENVER

It's do-able, but it's a big ask ..... I'm still reeling from the loss to Houston, if we would have taken care of business at that point hen we wouldn't be in the situation we are now. Anyhow, it is what it is and there's just as much pressure on Denver to win this game as there is Cincinnati ..... GO BENGALS !!!

[gregcook68]

2 hours ago, ArmyBengal said:

JUST
BEAT
DENVER

You know Army, I know, as the season unfolded, you have expressed your frustration with the folks who are wanting the Bengals to 'prove themselves', not being satisfied with any of the 14 games they have already played this year, as 'proof'.........HOWEVER, next Monday night will be that ONE 'season' game that they can definitely 'prove themselves' and getting several monkeys off their back, at the same time, including winning the division, number 2 seed, AND winning 2 big stage season games!

They have never done well when they are in control of their own destiny, and that's part of this 'proving themselves' choking mentality that's been attached to them. 

I know they don't have Dalton, but, sadly, this will be the game that defines them with the talking heads and many others.

They haven't been in this position since 1988, and there's not a better time to step up and 'prove themselves' than next Monday night.

IF that happens, they give Dalton extra time, and Lewis has the option to play whoever he wants against Baltimore, giving the dinged players even more time to heal.

Do they have the talent to do it even with AJ behind center? I think so, but will they step up? Hope so. Time will tell.

[cincyhokie]

If the defense goes off and holds them to 10 points or less, they can win this game.  It's all on the defense, imo.

[Walrus]

1 hour ago, cincyhokie said:

If the defense goes off and holds them to 10 points or less, they can win this game.  It's all on the defense, imo.

Well, this season the Broncos have been held to 12 once, 13 once, 16 once and 17 twice, but never below 10. So 10 or less is a rather tall order... That said, I think the McCarron-led offense should be good for better than 17 points this week.

[ArmyBengal]

I think it's a combo for this coming game.
The defense has to do what it's done many times this year and hold the opposing offense to few points.
The flip side which I view equally important is our o-line holding up against that Denver defense which is very solid.

If both of those things happen and AJ can not make any glaring mistakes, the game is certainly winnable.

[Dimster28]

2 hours ago, gregcook68 said:

IF that happens, they give Dalton extra time, and Lewis has the option to play whoever he wants against Baltimore, giving the dinged players even more time to heal.

even if this happen, Lewis will still use Starter against Baltimore if Patriots lose to Jets this sunday. I know Patriots lose to Dolphins at last week is make u guys laughing, but Lewis will not play around with this and fight for 1st seed if possible.

[cincyhokie]

The O-line looked like dog ass this past weekend.  If they play anything like that going forward, there's no way they win this game or a playoff game.

[volcom69]

41 minutes ago, cincyhokie said:

The O-line looked like dog ass this past weekend.  If they play anything like that going forward, there's no way they win this game or a playoff game.

They are blaming it on the 9ers using stuff they never seen before. 

Im sure it's true but you would think they would have adjusted, who knows but they were getting blown off the ball like crazy! 

[HoosierCat]

Just got done rewatching the game. First off, if I ever have trouble sleeping, I need to remember to put this thing on. I had to go heat up a cup of coffee to make it through.

Second, credit to Navarro Bowman. Bengals had no answer for him, he was all over the place and was far and away the No. 1 reason they struggled in the run game. He was virtually unblockable and seemed to instantly diagnose every play, especially runs to the edge.

Third, oline wasn't quite as bad as it seemed at first, with the exception of Bodine. He still plays too high, constantly gets pushed back and I counted at least two bad snaps, one on the goal line that McCarron handled and got to Hill for a score, and a shotgun snap that threatened to sail past AJ's left side. He needs to be replaced.

Fourth, comparisons of AJ to early career Andy are valid, especially in terms of happy feet and throwing off his back foot. That said his arm strength is better than advertised. The long pass to Green was one he couldn't step into because of pressure, it was all arm.

Fifth, Hue lied. Game plan was definitely simplified. 

Sixth, that TD pass to Kroft was his best throw of the game.

Seventh, really, Mo? That onside kick was right to you and you muffed it badly. Hands my butt.

Eighth, the defense looked a bit better than it was. Both picks off that TE's hands ought to have been receptions. That said, Williams' grab at the end over Rome was lovely. Army can stop complaining about him now. 

[COB]

Williams has two career picks, both were late in the 4th quarter and both iced a game.  Pretty clutch.

[gregcook68]

I know most could care less, but I do see, from time to time, articles and quotes from the talking heads posted on here, ....... the talking butt-heads, and NFL media in general have already stated that the Bengals can't win with or without Dalton, so AJ at QB makes no difference to them come Monday night and will not qualify as an excuse!

If they don't win next Monday night, it will be the same old choking Bengals, (that aren't built 'for the moment' as I have been told Sanders has said).

It's now, or another year of same ole same ole!

[HoosierCat]

I think the post-Niners game narrative, both among fans and the media, has been remarkably unified. Virtually everyone agrees that McCarron acquitted himself well, but at this point there's no comparison to Dalton's mastery of the offense. The Bengals are being given little chance of beating Denver or advancing in the playoffs unless Dalton can make it back.

If they do lose Monday night, I very much doubt you will hear much about "same old choking Bengals." It will be about how a great season for the Bengals and an MVP-caliber year for Dalton were short-circuited by a fluke injury.

[gregcook68]

1 hour ago, HoosierCat said:

I think the post-Niners game narrative, both among fans and the media, has been remarkably unified. Virtually everyone agrees that McCarron acquitted himself well, but at this point there's no comparison to Dalton's mastery of the offense. The Bengals are being given little chance of beating Denver or advancing in the playoffs unless Dalton can make it back.

If they do lose Monday night, I very much doubt you will hear much about "same old choking Bengals." It will be about how a great season for the Bengals and an MVP-caliber year for Dalton were short-circuited by a fluke injury.

I don't watch any of the talking heads, just get updates now and then from my son, but I can't imagine anyone, outside of the Bengal faithful, who won't feel like Sanders and all the rest, that there are some players and teams that just aren't 'built for the moment'.  Can't shine and prevail on the big stages!

[HoosierCat]

So, here's where things stand going into the last weekend on the season:

BENGALS (currently 3rd seed)

Can clinch a bye with a win + DEN loss OR a KC win + DEN loss. Broncos host the Chargers and Chiefs host the Raiders.

Assuming the Bengals don't get a bye, which seems unlikely now, they will host either the Jets or Steelers in the Wild Card round. Jets are @ Bills. If they win, they are in. They are also in if Pittsburgh loses, but they finish up the year in Cleveland,so... Pitt needs a win plus a Jets loss to get in.