2014 Prediction

[COB]

Ok, yes this deal looks like a potential bargain. Kaepernick does not lack confidence and is willing to gamble on himself. I would also take this deal for Dalton. Basically, 12 million per year for this season, 2014, and next, 2015.

If he plays well those two years, we can pat ourselves on the back for our savvy in getting him locked up for the next 3 or so at reasonable cost. If he doesn't shine, we can show him the door, or, just as likely, get a discount from his camp and keep it at a reasonable number.

Credit to Hoosier for seeing this coming on Kaepernick's deal and breaking it down in an understandable way. Dalton's people braying for 18 or 20 million per year just got kicked in the nuts.

Also - some recent chatter from NFL cognoscenti promulgated the theorem that there was no middle ground for QBs, no middle market. You either had a 20 million dollar stud or a journeyman type. This deal just set the middle market.

[kingwilly]

The contract also requires Kaepernick to purchase, with after-tax dollars, a disability policy that pays the 49ers $20 million if he suffers a career-ending injury.

Wow, that's some creative thinking right there.

Wait, they have HIM paying that policy? hmm... that's a bit onerous.

[ArmyBengal]

The contract also requires Kaepernick to purchase, with after-tax dollars, a disability policy that pays the 49ers $20 million if he suffers a career-ending injury.

Wow, that's some creative thinking right there.

Wait, they have HIM paying that policy? hmm... that's a bit onerous.

Yep, Kaepernick is the one on the hook for this policy that directly protects the team.

I don't know how much a 20 million policy costs, but it can't be cheap by any stretch.

I can't say as I have ever seen that in a contract before, but again, that's pretty creative on the part of the team.

[HoosierCat]

Also - some recent chatter from NFL cognoscenti promulgated the theorem that there was no middle ground for QBs, no middle market. You either had a 20 million dollar stud or a journeyman type. This deal just set the middle market.

Well, to be fair, Kap can make that $20 million/year-stud-money -- but he has to earn virtually every penny of it.

This deal turns out to be Mike Brown's wet dream of a contract. The upfront dollars are tiny, everything is tied to performance and the team has the opportunity to pull the plug after every season with minimal to no dead money.

Again, the more I look at the deal the more flabbergasted I am. This deal is the complete opposite of what agents have pushed for for years, and is a front office wish list. Just amazing.

[ArmyBengal]

Yep and if Kap doesn't hit those performance measures, the cost of his contract in comparison to how the salary cap is expected to grow, is really small potatoes.

I like it from a fan perspective though. The player has to earn their big money and if they don't make it, the team can get rid of them without pain.

[Kazkal]

Seems to me Kap's agent doesn't have alot faith in him and figure he take what he could get,14-15million a year straight up doesn't sound as bad right Dalton? Still want twenty well how about you take Kap's offer.

Well, to be fair, Kap can make that $20 million/year-stud-money -- but he has to earn virtually every penny of it.

This is how QB contract's should be okay want 20 million? Earn it other wise be happy with 12 which is still more then any other position.

[kingwilly]

Seems to me Kap's agent doesn't have alot faith in him and figure he take what he could get,14-15million a year straight up doesn't sound as bad right Dalton? Still want twenty well how about you take Kap's offer.

Well, to be fair, Kap can make that $20 million/year-stud-money -- but he has to earn virtually every penny of it.

This is how QB contract's should be okay want 20 million? Earn it other wise be happy with 12 which is still more then any other position.

Totally agree.

The days of guys like Cutler, Romo, Stafford or the like making $16-20M/yr for showing up is seemingly over.

[Stripes]

Much better deal for SF now that the details have surfaced.

Terrible for the player though, I don't know if Dalton is dumb enough to bite.

[HoosierCat]

Much better deal for SF now that the details have surfaced.

Terrible for the player though, I don't know if Dalton is dumb enough to bite.

Both Harvey and Hobson think it's unlikely the Bengals would offer a deal like Kap's. The FO isn't a fan of de-escalators, feeling they aren't fair to the player. And all the bells and whistles mean it's harder to manage the cap in later years, too many unexpected changes. History says they would rather front load a deal so they can keep the hit steady in later years. In other words, they prefer to take their risk up front in order to get stability done the road. But this is uncharted territory, so they might surprise us. Dalton's camp would probably prefer the traditional route, but that gets us back to the basic difference between what the two sides want.

[COB]

It is just hard for me to see a deal for Dalton getting done now. This Kaepernick deal did nothing but muddy the waters. I doubt Andy's agents would consider this deal. And if I were them, I wouldn't consider it either.

There are two ways to look at the Bengals side of it: Mike is in love with the Kap deal and will use it as a model and they'll never reach a deal. OR, as pointed out on this message board (though not the prevailing wisdom amongst NFL commentatoria) Mike is in love with handing QBs big money, so he won't hesitate to pull the trigger on the 18 mill a year deal.

Honestly, if I were Dalton's agent, I would get him signed before this season, and I'd stay away from the Kapernick type deal as much as I could. So what if the ceiling isn't as high due to a lack of escalators and pie in the sky bonuses. Forgo that and get guaranteed cash. That's just the player I think Andy is, and his agent needs to recognize that you don't have Secretariat, you've got a plow horse. Get him paid to plow the field, don't bet on him to win the Derby.

[HoosierCat]

It is just hard for me to see a deal for Dalton getting done now. This Kaepernick deal did nothing but muddy the waters. I doubt Andy's agents would consider this deal. And if I were them, I wouldn't consider it either.

I agree the structure isn't going to help any, but I think it does advance the discussion in two ways:

1. The guaranteed money, and I mean really guaranteed, not BS injury only guaranteed, is just $13 million, which is way, way below the Culter contract that is apparently in the way of a deal between Dalton and the team.

2. Over the first three years, Kap gets at most about $45 million. It could be as low as $35 million. But in either case that's still way lower than Cutler's $54 million over the first three years.

I could see a deal that would give Dalton about the same money as Kap over the first three years with a more traditional structure that also gives him more fully guaranteed money up front. But total value would be a good $40 million less than Kap's because they aren't going to build in BS money at the end to boost the numbers. But I dont know if Dalton will go for that. It certainly won't please the doubters since big money up front would lock the team to Andy for the 3-4 years it would take for the keep/cut cap hit/dead money equation to flip. We'll just have to wait and see.

[ArmyBengal]

The FO isn't a fan of de-escalators, feeling they aren't fair to the player.

Aren't fair to who ?? Oh ok, lets strap the team for the next 3-4 years to a guy you realize isn't what you thought after 2.

Is that fair to the organization ?? The other players ?? Even us fans ??

Forget the front office in that regard.

And all the bells and whistles mean it's harder to manage the cap in later years, too many unexpected changes.

So we really don't know how hard it is to manage an NFL team ??

I'd have to hear more on that to agree wholeheartedly. Seems like it's either one way or the other in regards to what the player will make.

Hit the mark and you make this. Miss the mark and you make that. If anything having a couple extra million to carry over is hardly a problem.

Plan for worse case scenario for the cap and make moves when things work out differently.

[HoosierCat]

Well, forget the FO all you want, Army, but they're the ones signing the check.

Always remember that Mike Brown's No. 1 concern is financial stability. That he would project that concern onto players and that it would inform his negotiating strategies isn't surprising. And that Katie takes after him is only to be expected. Of course, she could surprise us, but all Harvey and Hobs are pointing out is how they usually roll. We'll see.

[ArmyBengal]

Oh I get what's being said and understand it, but can't say as I agree with that line of thought in this situation.

While I am an advocate of Dalton and have zero issue in seeing him get signed, I wouldn't mind having the option to move on if so desired.

It's been mentioned that QB's are either one of two things: Top or Bottom and they get paid accordingly.

Someone mentioned this contract establishes a middle ground that didn't exist before.

There is truth in that comment and my thought is, it presents an opportunity to continue that trend and should be worked to their advantage.

Maybe they are doing that and we don't know, but I don't want it to be business as usual when it doesn't necessarily have to be or should be.

Yeah, we'll see.

[COB]

Yes, plenty of ruminating on quarterback contracts to be done between now and when Mike Brown welds Andy into our QB spot with some dumbass contract that I will hate. In the meantime, lets not forget that we drafted a quarterback.

[TJJackson]

Thats some top end image editing software you got there, CoB

[COB]

Only the best when dealing with my graphic design business I'm thinking of starting up in a parallel universe called "The Universe Where No One Knows Anything About Graphic Design".

[Kazkal]

"And all the bells and whistles mean it's harder to manage the cap in later years, too many unexpected change"

Not realy Factor it as maxium value of that year then anything left over carry over to next year...He only makes 14million well carry 6 million in to 2015.

PS,I Improved it

your welcome

[HoosierCat]

I don't see any difference, kaz.

[COB]

So much better that way. I bow to your superior editing skills.

[GapControl]

I think she looks like a man. I'm lucky to be living in Japan surrounded by babes everyday. Gives me perspective.

[COB]

I think she looks like a man. I'm lucky to be living in Japan surrounded by babes everyday. Gives me perspective.

She looks like a man? You need glasses. She's a goddess and, due to your unwarranted insult, you are barred from looking at her anymore. If you suspect she's in a picture, please avert your eyes.

A man. Ridiculous.

[COB]

I think she looks like a man. I'm lucky to be living in Japan surrounded by babes everyday. Gives me perspective.

I was too harsh in my previous post. You are likely very ill. Proceed to a nearby medical facility and undergo a series of tests and inquiries.

[redsbengalsbucks]

I think she looks like a man. I'm lucky to be living in Japan surrounded by babes everyday. Gives me perspective.

She has some mannish qualities in her face, one of those you would have to see from behind most of the time. Glad to see someone else on here actually looks at a women's face, if only for a little while.

[Scottishbengal]

She has some mannish qualities in her face

Dalton's genitals I expect !!