Scott Done? Time to package Whalen and picks for a trade

[HoosierCat]

Personally, I think the 3rd down issues fall squarely on the running game (or lack thereof). Whether that is because of BJGE, the o-line of a combination of both, I am not certain.

I had a little time this morning so just for sh*ts 'n' giggles, I went through the play-by-plays for all 5 games looking at results on 3rd and, when they went for it, 4th downs. A few interesting things popped out at me (caution: I was just eyeballing it here so I could have missed a down or two).

First, BJGE has arguably been the team's most reliable weapon on 3rd/4th down. In 11 tries, he's converted six, including a TD. He also had the infamous goal line fumble (lost) against Jacksonville. However, most of this success came against Baltimore, when he was 4 for 4 on third/fourth down with the TD.

Overall, I counted 67 third/fourth down tries (including one Dalton kneeldown). By my count they converted 17, scored on 2, and got another 3 firsts by penalty. That's a pretty anemic 33%. But the real problem, I think, is ball security. The Bengals have turned the ball over 10 times -- 6 picks, 4 lost fumbles -- of which 6 (3 picks, 3 lost fumbles) have come on third down. Dalton has also been sacked 5 times (out of 15 total) on these downs. So not only are the Bengals not converting in the clutch, they are giving up big negative plays, too.

On third/fourth and short, they are having little luck with the pass. I counted 22 third/fourth-and-2 or less situations. They converted 9/12 rushing, 2/10 passing. (Again, a lot of that rushing success reflects short yardage success in Baltimore.)

Looking at intended targets of incompletions and completions (so this doesn't account who Dalton was planning to throw to when he got sacked, for example) our receivers break down like this on third down:

Gresham: 14 balls on 3rd/4th, 4 conversions, including one by penalty (note that isn't 4 catches, sometimes he caught the ball but came up short, same for the rest)

Hawkins: 12 balls, 4 conversions, including a TD. One of the misses resulted in an interception.

Green: 6 balls, 1 conversion. One of the misses resulted in an interception.

Binns: 4 balls, 1 conversion by penalty. One of the misses was a (lost) fumble

Tate: 4 balls, 1 went for a TD. One of the misses was an interception.

There were 13 3rd down snaps on Dalton (scrambles out of bounds, QB sneaks, sacks, etc.) that include 3 conversions, 4 sacks, a sack+fumble (lost), a conversion by penalty and a kneeldown.

[volcom69]

I want to see them running more running back screens and find a way to get Sanu involved with the short crossing routes.

In regards to the draft, it's really spotty at the RB position in regards to that speed guy that can break it open.

Gillislee out of Florida has been looking good to this point and has nice speed for his size.

Yes this screen passes more to Hawkins or Sanu or Leonard! If this is a WCO then do we not see more screens and options like that.

[Stripes]

I honestly think the most sensible thing to try is to just give the ball to Peerman. He doesn't do the same things Scott did, but he is still a different player from BGJE and he needs to be utilized. Leonard is a nice asset too, but I think he is most effective when his role is limited. Against the Browns I really hope they try it, at least if BJGE isn't running well in the first quarter.

I don't think he's as bad as he seemed against the best run defense in the league (Miami), but nor is he going to improve significantly.

[ArmyBengal]

For what it's worth, I was all for seeing Peerman getting more snaps even when Scott was healthy.

Hopefully he gets more chances and makes the most of them.

[kingwilly]

Just saw the confirmation that Cushing is done, with ACL tear. Maybe we can ship a LB (maybe Burfict) and a pick for Ben Tate?

[HoosierCat]

Just saw the confirmation that Cushing is done, with ACL tear. Maybe we can ship a LB (maybe Burfict) and a pick for Ben Tate?

Started drinking early today, eh Willy?

[kingwilly]

Just a little cough medicine ...

[Sea Ray]

We don't have any LBs to spare but if they insist then the least we can do is trade them another USC LB to replace the one that they lost

[ArmyBengal]

We don't have any LBs to spare but if they insist then the least we can do is trade them another USC LB to replace the one that they lost

I could get behind this thought process.

[Earendil]

Personally, I think the 3rd down issues fall squarely on the running game (or lack thereof). Whether that is because of BJGE, the o-line of a combination of both, I am not certain.

I had a little time this morning so just for sh*ts 'n' giggles, I went through the play-by-plays for all 5 games looking at results on 3rd and, when they went for it, 4th downs. A few interesting things popped out at me (caution: I was just eyeballing it here so I could have missed a down or two).

First, BJGE has arguably been the team's most reliable weapon on 3rd/4th down. In 11 tries, he's converted six, including a TD. He also had the infamous goal line fumble (lost) against Jacksonville. However, most of this success came against Baltimore, when he was 4 for 4 on third/fourth down with the TD.

Overall, I counted 67 third/fourth down tries (including one Dalton kneeldown). By my count they converted 17, scored on 2, and got another 3 firsts by penalty. That's a pretty anemic 33%. But the real problem, I think, is ball security. The Bengals have turned the ball over 10 times -- 6 picks, 4 lost fumbles -- of which 6 (3 picks, 3 lost fumbles) have come on third down. Dalton has also been sacked 5 times (out of 15 total) on these downs. So not only are the Bengals not converting in the clutch, they are giving up big negative plays, too.

On third/fourth and short, they are having little luck with the pass. I counted 22 third/fourth-and-2 or less situations. They converted 9/12 rushing, 2/10 passing. (Again, a lot of that rushing success reflects short yardage success in Baltimore.)

Looking at intended targets of incompletions and completions (so this doesn't account who Dalton was planning to throw to when he got sacked, for example) our receivers break down like this on third down:

Gresham: 14 balls on 3rd/4th, 4 conversions, including one by penalty (note that isn't 4 catches, sometimes he caught the ball but came up short, same for the rest)

Hawkins: 12 balls, 4 conversions, including a TD. One of the misses resulted in an interception.

Green: 6 balls, 1 conversion. One of the misses resulted in an interception.

Binns: 4 balls, 1 conversion by penalty. One of the misses was a (lost) fumble

Tate: 4 balls, 1 went for a TD. One of the misses was an interception.

There were 13 3rd down snaps on Dalton (scrambles out of bounds, QB sneaks, sacks, etc.) that include 3 conversions, 4 sacks, a sack+fumble (lost), a conversion by penalty and a kneeldown.

What about the times when they run it on first or second down and only get 1-2 yards, and then have 3rd and long? That's what I was talking about. They don't seem to be getting enough from run plays in the first two downs. But I usually end up watching the games late at night on condensed view (which is basically only the plays, minus the yammering from the announcers), so I've probably missed a few things.

[HoosierCat]

They don't seem to be getting enough from run plays in the first two downs. But I usually end up watching the games late at night on condensed view (which is basically only the plays, minus the yammering from the announcers), so I've probably missed a few things.

Well, again eyeballing the play-by-play, they have rushed on first down 64 times. 41 of those times they have eventually generated a new set of downs, a TD or successfully run out the clock at the end of the game.

24 of those first down rushes have gone for -8 to 1 yard. Only 8 of those series generated another first down.

They've gotten 2-3 yards 23 times, 20 of which eventually got them a conversion.

They're gotten 4-9 yards 13 times leading to 9 new sets of downs.

They've gotten 10+ yards and a conversion 4 times.

So basically if they've gotten at least 2 yards on a 1st down rush, they've earned a fresh series of downs 33 out of 40 times. The problem is when they get stoned or dropped for a loss, but that's often as much the run blocking fault's as the running back's.

On second down it's similar. They've rushed for 1 or 2 yards on second down 8 times, but only 2 of those series lead to a new set of downs. They've run for 3+ yards on second down 15 times, leading to 12 conversions.

[ArmyBengal]

Nice stats Hoosier !!!

[GapControl]

I think we are all in agreement here. The running game is not getting it done. Hoosier`s stats support that. I also think most of us agree that it isn`t only our RBs who are at fault but also the runblockers on the offensive line. The last time we dominated in the running game, Bobby Williams and Willie Anderson were playing on the right side. Correct me if I am wrong.

[Earendil]

They don't seem to be getting enough from run plays in the first two downs. But I usually end up watching the games late at night on condensed view (which is basically only the plays, minus the yammering from the announcers), so I've probably missed a few things.

Well, again eyeballing the play-by-play, they have rushed on first down 64 times. 41 of those times they have eventually generated a new set of downs, a TD or successfully run out the clock at the end of the game.

24 of those first down rushes have gone for -8 to 1 yard. Only 8 of those series generated another first down.

They've gotten 2-3 yards 23 times, 20 of which eventually got them a conversion.

They're gotten 4-9 yards 13 times leading to 9 new sets of downs.

They've gotten 10+ yards and a conversion 4 times.

So basically if they've gotten at least 2 yards on a 1st down rush, they've earned a fresh series of downs 33 out of 40 times. The problem is when they get stoned or dropped for a loss, but that's often as much the run blocking fault's as the running back's.

On second down it's similar. They've rushed for 1 or 2 yards on second down 8 times, but only 2 of those series lead to a new set of downs. They've run for 3+ yards on second down 15 times, leading to 12 conversions.

Interesting. Thanks for doing the research.

[HoosierCat]

I think we are all in agreement here. The running game is not getting it done. Hoosier`s stats support that. I also think most of us agree that it isn`t only our RBs who are at fault but also the runblockers on the offensive line. The last time we dominated in the running game, Bobby Williams and Willie Anderson were playing on the right side. Correct me if I am wrong.

The right side of the line is still getting the job done for the most part, but the left side isn't. Boling isn't a mauler and while Whit is a premiere pass protector, he's not a great run-blocker. Josh just put up a breakdown this morning.

I wouldn't go so far as to say that the running game is not getting it done. I would say that, too often, it's not getting it done on first down. Almost 40% of their first down runs are going for a yard or less, and in those cases they end up earning a fresh set of downs just 33% of the time. When they get two or more yards rushing on first down, their chances of converting shoot up to 80%. Bottom line, what the numbers suggest is that the key to improving lies in doing a better job rushing on first down. Good things should flow from that.

[COB]

I think we are all in agreement here. The running game is not getting it done. Hoosier`s stats support that. I also think most of us agree that it isn`t only our RBs who are at fault but also the runblockers on the offensive line. The last time we dominated in the running game, Bobby Williams and Willie Anderson were playing on the right side. Correct me if I am wrong.

The right side of the line is still getting the job done for the most part, but the left side isn't. Boling isn't a mauler and while Whit is a premiere pass protector, he's not a great run-blocker. Josh just put up a breakdown this morning.

I wouldn't go so far as to say that the running game is not getting it done. I would say that, too often, it's not getting it done on first down. Almost 40% of their first down runs are going for a yard or less, and in those cases they end up earning a fresh set of downs just 33% of the time. When they get two or more yards rushing on first down, their chances of converting shoot up to 80%. Bottom line, what the numbers suggest is that the key to improving lies in doing a better job rushing on first down. Good things should flow from that.

Time to break out the trick plays on first.

[HoosierCat]

Time to break out the trick plays on first.

Can't hurt, but in going back through all those play-by-play rundowns, the things that kept jumping out at me were turnovers, sacks and penalties. Those have been the real killers. Cut that stuff out and I can live with the running struggles on first down.

[GapControl]

Time to break out the trick plays on first.

Can't hurt, but in going back through all those play-by-play rundowns, the things that kept jumping out at me were turnovers, sacks and penalties. Those have been the real killers. Cut that stuff out and I can live with the running struggles on first down.

Hoosier, from looking at those play breakdowns, what stands out as a reason for so many sacks? Dalton has gone down a lot more often than he did last year early in the season. I think the Bengals only choice is to run on the right because Whit, Boling, and Faine, aren`t maulers in the run game. This is similar to what happened back when Bobbie Williams and Willie Anderson were on the right side. Is Boling Nate Livings 2.0?

[HoosierCat]

I don't know that the stats will tell you much about why the sacks are happening but there are a couple things that stand out to me. Of the 15 sacks, nearly half (7) have happened on 1st and 10. I suspect they were looking downfield on those snaps, but either the receiver didn't get open/ran the wrong route, Andy didn't see him or protection broke down. Combined with the struggles rushing on first down, that suggests they need to focus a bit more on West Coast stuff on first down: short passes, screens, etc.

Six of the sacks have come on third or fourth down. Oddly, though, only two of those were long distance, a 3-12 and a 4-14. The others were a 3-5 and three 3-2 situations. Aggravatingly, two of those 3-2 sacks came when they lined up in the Bob Bratkowski Memorial Formation: 3-2 in the shotgun. Memo to Jay Gruden: that didn't work for Sideshow Bob and it isn't going to work for you, either.

Interestingly, Dalton's only been sacked twice on second down.

[TJJackson]

I begged for a power running back between the 3rd and 5th rounds in the draft

Begged

[cincy9275]

maybe next draft we will get a true starting back..

[ArmyBengal]

I think a RB, safety, and OLB have to be at the top of the list.

[cHaD711Johnson]

Safety isn't a priority. That's a pretty serviceable position where you don't really have that many gamechanging safeties back there. I say RB, LB, and DE. DE 1st and then a RB and LB in the 2nd round.

[HoosierCat]

At this point I would probably rank the top four draft needs like so:

1. LB: Burfict seem like a find but Rey has been a flop, Lawson looks like he's running empty and Howard has a long injury rehab ahead of him. And behind them there really isn't anyone.

2. WR: Yes, wide receiver. Ask yourself this question: how f**ked is this team if Green goes down? Answer: completely.

3. RB: BJGE doesn't look like the answer and Scott is now on his own injury rehab trip.

4. DE: They have some talent at the position, but need depth.

[ArmyBengal]

Safety isn't a priority. That's a pretty serviceable position where you don't really have that many gamechanging safeties back there. I say RB, LB, and DE. DE 1st and then a RB and LB in the 2nd round.

So you are good with Crocker, Nelson, Clements, and Mays ??

Clements might be the best of the 4 and he's like 31 or 32 right ??

Maybe not a round one priority, but needs to be addressed.