playoff scenario II

[jjakq27]

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/bengals/2011/12/24/early-week-17-scenarios/

Joe Reedy's Week 17 playoff scenarios.

The Bengals have survived themselves again, beating Arizona 23-16 Saturday afternoon at PBS to move to 9-6 and take over sole possession of the sixth and final playoff spot in the AFC with one week to go. They lead Oakland, Tennessee and the N.Y. Jets all by one game. Oakland is still in play for the AFC West title with Denver, which is also 8-7 but owns the tie-breaker against the Raiders based on record in common games.

San Diego and Kansas City joined the ranks of the eliminated with losses on Saturday.

The following are the scenarios after all of Saturday’s games have been completed.

BENGALS MAKE PLAYOFFS IF …

They beat Baltimore.

They lose along with the Jets (at Miami), Raiders (vs. Chargers) and Titans (at Houston)

They lose along with the Jets and Raiders and Titans win. Bengals win based on head-to-head tiebreak with Tennessee.

They lose, Raiders beat Chargers, Chiefs beat Broncos and Titans and Jets lose because that would give the Raiders the AFC West title.

They lose, Raiders beat Chargers, Chiefs beat Broncos, Titans win and Jets lose because that would give the Raiders the AFC West title and a head to head tiebreak between the Bengals and Titans.

TIEBREAKERS

If four-team tiebreak between Bengals, Jets, Raiders and Titans – Raiders win tie break over Tennessee and NY Jets based on strength of victory. Jets win tie break over Cincinnati based on best win percentage in conference games.

If three-team tiebreak between Bengals, Jets and Raiders – Raiders win tie break over NY Jets based on head-to-head win percentage. Jets win tie break over Cincinnati based on best win percentage in conference games.

If three-team tiebreak between Bengals, Jets and Titans – Tennessee wins tie break over NY Jets based on best win percentage in common games. Jets win tie break over Cincinnati based on best win percentage in conference games.

[membengal]

Sea Ray, I said that at some point.

[membengal]

Yes, Raiders do - if they were to win, they would have us on better conference record if we were to lose.

We need Jets and Raiders to lose, if so, I think we are in the playoffs regardless. If one of those two teams win, we will need to beat Baltimore.

Sea Ray, two posts after the one you quoted from me, I wrote the above.

Why are getting combative about me mentioning Titans originally? I was posting on the fly and hadn't worked out the scenarios yet. No need to be dickish about it.

[Sea Ray]

Sea Ray, I said that at some point.

I just wanted to make sure I wasn't missing anything. Reedy could have made his Tweet a little simpler by making that point

[Sea Ray]

Yes, Raiders do - if they were to win, they would have us on better conference record if we were to lose.

We need Jets and Raiders to lose, if so, I think we are in the playoffs regardless. If one of those two teams win, we will need to beat Baltimore.

Sea Ray, two posts after the one you quoted from me, I wrote the above.

Why are getting combative about me mentioning Titans originally? I was posting on the fly and hadn't worked out the scenarios yet. No need to be dickish about it.

I'm sorry you took it that way. My comment wasn't meant to slam anyone. I was just thinking out loud in trying to get a handle on all the playoff scenarios. I thought maybe I'd missed something and if I had, it wouldn't be surprising.

[cincyhokie]

The Titans are completely irrelevent to the Bengals playoff chances. Even if the Titans win and the Bengals lose, the Bengals have the tiebreaker for the head to head matchup.

If the Bengals win, they're in. If they lose they have to have the Jets and Raiders/or Broncos lose.

Joe Reedy doesn't know what he is talking about.

[derekshank]

Head to head doesn't matter in a 3-way tie.

I believe that if there is a 3-way tie between the Bengals/Jets/Titans, the Titans go to the playoffs.

[skyline]

Head to head doesn't matter in a 3-way tie.

I believe that if there is a 3-way tie between the Bengals/Jets/Titans, the Titans go to the playoffs.

Yep. Which would absolutely break my heart, here, living in the middle of Titans country.

[Stripes]

Yeah, in any three or four way tie situation (at 9-7), the Bengals are out. The Titans game is relevant, though notably less so than the Jets, Raiders, and Broncos.

[membengal]

Right, we are all saying the same thing.

The titans game is meaningless to the Bengals at this point.

It's simple a Jets loss coupled with either a Raiders loss or Broncos loss and Cincy is playoff bound even if they don't win.

And, yes, it would be a lot cooler to win.

Just laying it all out there.

Nice part about being flexed is we will all get to watch the Jets/Dolphins game at 1:00 and see which way the wind is blowing.

[membengal]

By the way, I am having Christmas with the in-laws in Nashville. Watched the game yesterday at a sports bar here, and the Titans fans were bummed by the outcome (altho they got uber-excited as the Benson fumbles kept hitting the turf and gave the Cards a chance...).

The general agreement among everyone at the sports bar was that the Simpson TD was one of the most spectacular things they had ever seen.

[combatbengal]

Let's just make things simple. Don't worry about or try to count on other teams helping us. We win, we're in! So let's just win! Keep the ball away from Flacco, hold on to the rock, control the time of possession, win on 3rd downs and don't make stupid penalties!

[BengalszoneBilly]

Let's just make things simple. Don't worry about or try to count on other teams helping us. We win, we're in! So let's just win! Keep the ball away from Flacco, hold on to the rock, control the time of possession, win on 3rd downs and don't make stupid penalties!

Seconded. Just take care of our own business!

[Stripes]

I am feeling good about beating the Ravens. I think the Bengals will do just that.

Still nice to know the shakedown though in case it doesn't work out.

[BengalszoneBilly]

I am feeling good about beating the Ravens. I think the Bengals will do just that.

Still nice to know the shakedown though in case it doesn't work out.

I'd rather not back into the playoffs. Keep the momentum rolling.

[Sea Ray]

The Titans winning does not hurt us at all. If you're a fan that hates the Jets, it might be nice to see the Titans win. We are in the most enviable position in that we control our own destiny and we have a home game to boot. You can't ask for more than that

[Stripes]

The Titans getting 9 wins increases the probability of a three/four way tie, which hurts the Bengals. I might be missing something here.

[Sea Ray]

The Titans getting 9 wins increases the probability of a three/four way tie, which hurts the Bengals. I might be missing something here.

If the Bengals tie with anyone (except Tenn), they lose. Thus in a three or four way tie, Tenn's inclusion means nothing because if they weren't included we'd lose the tie breaker anyway. No way a Tenn win knocks us out so far as I can tell.

[Stripes]

Thanks, I gotcha.

[TJJackson]

Uhm, the Titans are still in it

They get the 6th spot in any of the following scenarios

TEN win + CIN loss +

1) + NYJ win + OAK loss or tie

2) + NYJ win + DEN loss or tie

3) + NYJ loss or tie + OAK win + DEN win

[Stripes]

They're in it, but their game has no impact on the Bengals.

[cincyhokie]

They're in it, but their game has no impact on the Bengals.

Thank you.

As far as the Bengals are concerned they are in if:

1) They win.

2) If they lose, the Jets must lose and the Raiders OR the Broncos must lose.

These are the only ways the Bengals can make the playoffs. If the Titans win or lose, it's still irrelevent for the Bengals if one of the above does not happen.

[BengalszoneBilly]

Screw the options. Just beat Baltimore and head into the playoffs with a head of steam.

[HoosierCat]

Screw the options. Just beat Baltimore and head into the playoffs with a head of steam.

Of course, if we do that we likely hand the division and a first round bye to Pittsburgh, as I doubt Pitt loses to the Browns. I can't help but hate that idea.

Still, it would probably be for the best considering the alternative is for Balti to get the 2 seed spot in a year when they've been unbeatable at home.

I think I like the idea of the Raiders winning the AFC West, too, and the Ravens having to haul all the way out to Oakland to face Palmer, who's had their number for years.

[jjakq27]

From Bengals.com

http://www.bengals.c...41-c071c22f05d0

The NFL released its playoff scenarios Sunday and there are three ways the Bengals can secure their first Wild Card playoff berth since 1975:

They have to beat or tie the Ravens in next Sunday's 4:15 p.m. game at Paul Brown Stadium.

Or, the Jets would have to lose or tie in Miami and the Raiders would have to lose or tie their home game with San Diego.

Or, the Jets would have to lose and the Broncos would have to lose their home game with Kansas City.

All four games are rematches. The Ravens beat the Bengals, 31-24, in Baltimore on Nov. 20. The Broncos beat the Chiefs, 17-10, on Nov. 13 before Kansas City's quarterback problems. The Raiders beat San Diego in quarterback Carson Palmer's second start, 24-17, on Nov. 10. The Jets beat Miami, 24-6, on Oct. 17.