Top Nine Projection

[Wraith]

Here is my Premise. Miami, Atlanta and Baltimore are essentially starting the season without a starting caliber QB on their roster. Yes, I know Beck was a second rounder last season and I know that Boller looked ok last season for Baltimore but the facts are that neither QB is going to win you many games and neither QB would start for any other team (Beck might start for KC but probably not). These three teams must come out of the draft with either Ryan, or Brohm, or Woodson, or Henne, or Flacco. Atlanta is a slam dunk for Either Ryan or Brohm. Baltimore will go with Brohm or Ryan if either is available at 8. Miami is saying the right things but when presented with the opportunity to draft a game changing QB I believe they succumb to the pressure and select Ryan. This starts a domino, Atlanta who cannot NOT draft a QB in round one will take Brohm. This leaves Baltimore. Baltimore could wait for the second round to roll around, could try and trade back up to the mid 20's, but there are several teams (San Francisco, St. Louis, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Chicago, Philadelphia) that could jump on a QB in Round 1 and leave Baltimore without a good prosepct and entering the season with Troy Smith, Kyle Boller, or Steve (Methuselah) McNair is a daunting prospect even if you look at 2008 as a rebuilding project. I believe that one of the remaining QBs after Brohm and Ryan will emerge from the pack as a clear #3 prospect (my bet is Woodson) and Baltimore will be sorely tempted to jump on that prospect at #8 rather than leaving it to fate.

Every draft since 2001 has had a DB go top 8

With that all said.

1) Miami, Matt Ryan, QB, BC *see above*

2) St. Louis, Chris Long, DE, Virginia *best player available and it fills a need*

3) Atlanta, Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville *see above*

4) Oakland, Glen Dorsey, DT, LSU *Warren Sapp replacement*

5) Kansas City, Jake Long, OT, Michigan *no team needs O-Line more*

6) New York Jets, Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas *if he falls to the Jets he will be a no-brainer pick*

7) New England, Kenny Phillips, FS, Miami *Rodney Harrison replacement*

8) Baltimore, Andre Woodson, QB, Kentucky *see above*

9) Cincinnati, Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC *duh*

[TJJackson]

Naturally, the problem with this analysis is that free agency and trades will almost certainly reshape the top of the draft.

*shrug*

[Wraith]

Free Agency will not change the QB picture unless Quinn is traded (which would be a monumental hit to the Browns Cap). Otherwise there simply aren't starting caliber backup QBs in the league anymore and none available in this free agent class (unless you subscribe to the Rex Grossman could bloom in another system position and I am quite sure that very few NFL GMs do).

Likewise Free Agency isn't likely to affect the historical trend towards emphasizing DBs to counter the increased complexity and capability of the passing game in todays NFL.

But, these are just educated guesses at this point and alot will change before April.

[TJJackson]

Free Agency will not change the QB picture

Maybe...let's say I grant you that. But then let's say that a top 8 team that needs a QB decides that the QB can be had later in the draft, and so they trade their top 8 spot to a team whose need is not at QB. The selection at that spot changes then and there.

[HoosierCat]

If Ellis falls to us, I will be thrilled.

[TJJackson]

If Ellis falls to us, I will be thrilled.

On this, we agree :-)

[Wraith]

"Maybe...let's say I grant you that. But then let's say that a top 8 team that needs a QB decides that the QB can be had later in the draft, and so they trade their top 8 spot to a team whose need is not at QB. The selection at that spot changes then and there."

Absolutely. Recently there has not been alot of trade activity in the top ten and of course it is impossible to project trades like this so if the draft order changes every projection that went before it gets thrown into the garbage and we all start from scratch. And of course nothing like that will happen until draft day. If there is a trade down that will affect us I would be willing to bet that the Patriots will trade down out of their position and that will likely be bad news for us because we are at least reasonably assured that the Pats aren't going D-Line since they have 5 good young players stocked at those positions.

[DesperateDerelict]

If Ellis falls to us, I will be thrilled.

On this, we agree :-)

Sorry - it'll never happen. Ellis WILL workout in Indy this weekend, and at his pro day. It'll become obvious to all that he can play NT, DE in a 3-4, or under tackle in a 4-3.

Dorsey, on the other hand, is ONLY an under tackle, recovering from a severe injury, and probably will NOT work out at the combine.

Looking at the 8 teams ahead of us, you have 5 that are or will be playing a 3-4 (Miami, St. Louis, NY Jets, New England, and Baltimore) and only 3 committed to a 4-3 (Oakland, Atlanta, Kansas City). The Chiefs and Falcons have more pressing needs (QB, RB, OL), so....

If Al Davis passes on Glenn Dorsey, and Marvin stays committed to the 4-3 (two big IFs), then ...

with the 9th pick, Cincinnati picks Dorsey Glenn, DT, LSU !!!!

Take it to the bank, fellow zoners.

[TJJackson]

I'd be happier with Ellis, but Dorsey would also be a good pick at 9, imho

[Wraith]

Either would be great, I believe there is a legitimate possibility that Ellis goes ahead of Dorsey and I don't buy Miami going DT at all, when all is said and done I think Matt Ryan goes #1, hey it rhymed!

[Kazkal]

Matt Ryan or a OT but not DT for the dolphins,

I think we have a good chance to still get Ellis simply amobi had so much upside and still went what 9th-11th was it?

[HoosierCat]

Just for kicks, here's 9 from me...

1. Miami Dolphins: DE Chris Long, Virginia

2. St. Louis Rams: OT Jake Long, Michigan

3. Atlanta Falcons: RB Darren MacFadden, Arkansas

4. Oakland Raiders: DT Sedrick Ellis, USC

5. Kansas City Chiefs: DT Glenn Dorsey, LSU

6. New York Jets: DE Vernon Gholston, Ohio State

7. New England Patriots: CB Mike Jenkins, Florida

8. Baltimore Ravens: QB Matt Ryan, Boston College

9. Cincinnati Bengals: TE Fred Davis, USC

[Wraith]

If we take Davis at #9 I will cry.

[TJJackson]

Not good, Hoosier....

[HoosierCat]

Not good, Hoosier....

Yeah, I was just goofing around. Davis would be a good pick in the second, tho, and he might last that long...

Anyhow, did another top 9 -- a little more seriously -- today:

1. Miami Dolphins: DE/OLB Vernon Gholsten

This pick wont be a surprise by draft day. Bill Parcells takes another crack at finding the next LT.

2. Oakland Raiders: DE Chris Long

Al Davis coughs up a 3rd to move up and snag Howie's kid. Raiders fanbase doesn't stop cheering for a week.

3. Atlanta Falcons: QB Matt Ryan

Joey just got the boot (tho there is some talk he may be back at a reduced price) but even if he does, neither he nor DJ Shockley nor Chris Redman are worth spit.

4. Dallas Cowboys: RB Darren McFadden

Rams get the boys' two first rounders (22 and 28) plus another 3 or something, I'm feeling too lazy to go look at the trade value chart.. Somewhere, Eric Mangenius is sobbing.

5. Kansas City Chiefs: OT Jake Long

KC is dumbfounded he's still on the board. Even Herm cant eff this one up.

6. New York Jets: DT Sedrick Ellis

Bengaldom groans while Jets fans at the draft boo (it's a tradition). Ellis replaces Robertson.

7. New England Patriots: CB Leodis McKelvin

Would have liked to trade down.

8. Baltimore Ravens: QB Brian Brohme

A reach but McNair is done. Ray-Ray will probably pitch a fit.

9. Cincinnati Bengals: LB Keith Rivers

Injury questions around Dorsey scare off the Bengals. Fans scream bloody murder.

[COB]

Injury questions around Dorsey scare off the Bengals. Fans scream bloody murder.

We pass on Dorsey and some fans will want to commit murder.

[BengalszoneBilly]

We pass on Dorsey and some fans will want to commit murder.

One of those fans are in attendance right here. I want Gholsten, Ellis, or Dorsey in that order. I find it highly unlikely Gholsten drops to #9 though.

[HoosierCat]

If the Bengals were to pass over Dorsey, I would put that in the "things to watch" folder. It may or may not prove to be a wise decision depending on the injury question.

Personally, if I were the Bengals and had the 20th or 25th or similar pick, and Dorsey were there, I roll the dice. At 9, tho...that's a high pick, a lot of money and a lot of cap space to go bust. And the Bengals are already dragging around the consequences of two first round blowouts in the past four drafts. Not to mention the consequences of giving big bucks to a couple linemen with bad knees, to boot. And, since Dorsey himself has confessed to regular knee pain...well, do you want to commit him to the long-term care of our (on) crack med staff????

Passing on Dorsey might turn out to be a huge mistake. But all things considered, it might not either.

[HoosierCat]

Darn, looks like today's forum crash cost us Hair's post about how my mocks hurt his soul.

All I can say is that when it comes to crushing spirits, I got nothing on longtime draftnik Frank Coyle...

http://www.draftinsiders.com/node/335

1. Miami - 1-15 - Matt Ryan - QB - B.C.

The Dolphins have already added many defensive FA in open market. New boss Parcells will focus on offense with their early selections beginning with their future leader and cornerstone performer.

2. St. Louis - 3-13 - Glenn Dorsey - DT - LSU

The Rams will focus on their front four and Dorsey gives them a difference maker with early impact ability.

3. x - Atlanta - 4-12 - Chris Long - DE - Virginia

The Falcons are trying to regroup after a disastrous ’07 season and Chris Long is the safest pick in this draft class and a cornerstone of newly formed team.

4. x - Oakland - 4-12 - * Darren McFadden - RB - Arkansas

Owner Al Davis is always trying to make a splash and McFadden gives him star value.

5. x - Kansas City - 4-12 - Sedrick Ellis - DT - Southern Cal

The Chiefs defensive line has failed miserably in recent years and Ellis could be a difference maker here.

6. NY Jets - 4-12 - * Vernon Gholston - DE/LB - Ohio St

The Jets may look to add a bookend pass rusher for new FA Calvin Pace and Gholston is flying up the charts.

7. New England (San Fran - 5-11) - Leodis McKelvin - CB - Troy University

The Pats defense took some major hits in the secondary and they will look to add a top flight cover man early in the draft.

8. Baltimore - 5-11 - Jake Long - OT - Michigan

The Ravens are looking to improve their line especially with an available bookend tackle and vet Jon Ogden expected to retire.

9. Cincinnati - 7-9 - * Rashard Mendenhall - RB - Illinois

The Bengals could surprise here and get a well rounded feature back to balance their attack.

[HairOnFire]

Darn, looks like today's forum crash cost us Hair's post about how my mocks hurt his soul.

Well, that's a shame, but no real harm done, right?

Then again, when I think about the kids of tomorrow...(sniff)....and how they won't be able to read the things I've written in the last day or so...(sniff)....well, it hurts a little.

[HoosierCat]

Darn, looks like today's forum crash cost us Hair's post about how my mocks hurt his soul.

Well, that's a shame, but no real harm done, right?

Not at all. Just for kicks, here's a new top 9 projection, incorporating all the latest in rampant speculation, unsourced rumors and hot names. Hopefully this one is easier on your spirit!

1. Miami Dolphins: DE/OLB Vernon Gholsten

One of the Longs would be safe pick, but Miami decides to go with the guy with the most upside.

2. St Louis Rams: DE Chris Long

Wanted Gholston but are happy to bolster their pass rush with consolation prize of Chris Long.

3. Atlanta Falcons: OT Jake Long

Will take a QB with one of their three second round picks.

4. Oakland Raiders: RB Darren McFadden

Mock drafters worldwide get this one right

5. Kansas City Chiefs: DT Glenn Dorsey

Wanted OT but Jake Long is gone and BPA rules in KC.

6. New York Jets: QB Matt Ryan

Jets fans riot in NYC. Jets hope to deal Pennington in the second round.

7. New Orleans Saints: DT Sedrick Ellis

From New England. Word leaks after the draft that the Bengals did, in fact, try to cut a deal with NE, offering their first and third (9 and 77 overall) for the Pats' first and fourth (6 and 125), which adds up to about equal value per the trade value charts. NO's offer is their first and third (10 and 78) for the Pats' 6 spot. Pats tell Cincy they will trade with them if they drop the demand for the fourth round pick. The Bengals balk and NO gets the pick.

8. Carolina Panthers: RB Rashard Mendenhall

Bengals smoke screen works too well. Ravens happy to drop to 13.

9. Cincinnati Bengals: OG/T Brandon Albert

Stacy wants more coin for a long-term deal than the Bengals are willing to give, Big Willie's heart is willing but the flesh is weak, and Grumpy Levi is still rehabbing from the season before last. Bengal fans sigh at unexciting pick (except for the hardcore "trade down!" crowd, which goes ballistic), but Albert is a dominant pulling guard who can also play both tackle spots, and will be a huge shot in the arm for the running game.

[HairOnFire]

Just for kicks, here's a new top 9 projection, incorporating all the latest in rampant speculation, unsourced rumors and hot names. Hopefully this one is easier on your spirit!

Why would you think it might be? After all, for reaons only you can explain you made up a trade scenario that not only cost the Bengals a chance at Ellis, but under circumstances that would heavily second guessed from now until the end of all time. And then you add to the misery by making an unpopular pick that would result in a message board "trade down" uprising.

You sir, have once again kicked my soul in the nuts.

[HoosierCat]

Why would you think it might be? After all, for reaons only you can explain you made up a trade scenario that not only cost the Bengals a chance at Ellis, but under circumstances that would heavily second guessed from now until the end of all time. And then you add to the misery by making an unpopular pick that would result in a message board "trade down" uprising.

You sir, have once again kicked my soul in the nuts.

I try. But really, all credit must go to my patent-pending draft projection method, the Draft Unabridged Mularkey Board (or D.U.M.B.) system. The D.U.M.B. system operates on two core principles:

1. Speculation, rumor and hype are always considered to carry far more weight than player performance, team needs, system compatibility, etc.

2. When selecting for certain teams with an established history of screwing up the draft (including but not limited to the Detroit Lion, New York Jets and Cincinnati Bengals), a presupposition exists that they will do something at least unexpected, if not downright D.U.M.B.

The D.U.M.B. system is guaranteed to give you results at least as good as you would get by putting the names of the top 100 players in a hat and picking 31 out at random.

[Kazkal]

Injury questions around Dorsey scare off the Bengals. Fans scream bloody murder.

We pass on Dorsey and some fans will want to commit murder.

Meh I would be disappointed but I would be fine not risking it,We've had to many bust picks in first round so you don't take a guy who's set up to bust.

6.4 New York Jets: DT Sedrick Ellis

Bengaldom groans while Jets fans at the draft boo (it's a tradition). Ellis replaces Robertson.

I doubt they take Ellis,why replace A DT not ment for the 3-4 with another DT who is not suited for it?

[HoosierCat]

6.4 New York Jets: DT Sedrick Ellis

Bengaldom groans while Jets fans at the draft boo (it's a tradition). Ellis replaces Robertson.

I doubt they take Ellis,why replace A DT not ment for the 3-4 with another DT who is not suited for it?

Ellis could play nose in a 3-4 just fine.