Tracking the Mocks

[HoosierCat]

Well, it's that time of year again. With the draft order settling out, updates are starting to come faster. The Bengalszone Mock Draft Database is up to more than 50 mocks, about a third of which have been updated within the last couple weeks.

The early book on the Bengals at No. 9 is -- just like last year -- DT. Last time around, it was the Mighty Quinn; this year it's USC DT Sedrick Ellis. He currently holds a 13-vote lead over No. 2 choice, Ohio State linebacker James Laurinaitis. Here's how it currently shakes out:

DT Sedrick Ellis 20

LB James Laurinaitis 7

DE Vernon Gholston 5

DE Calais Campbell 5

LB Dan Connor 4

By position:

DT 23

DE 13

LB 12

WR 1

CB 1

RB 1

S 1

[bengalboomer7]

Thanks Hoos, mocks are like boobies, their always fun to look at

[HoosierCat]

Thanks, boom. OP updated to include a few more mocks; it's snowing like a b*tch here tonight so I'm hanging home for the New year & had some time.

Also should be noted that we have one multi-vote getter in the second, DE Quentin Groves.

Ellis in the 1st and Groves in the 2nd would be fine by me.

[BengalszoneBilly]

Thanks Hoos, mocks are like boobies, their always fun to look at

Oh no you didn't just compare NFL mock drafts to my beloved boobies! If seeing a mock gives you a chub as fast as an awesome rack does, then you have some serious issues my friend!

[HoosierCat]

Sedrick Ellis continues to dominate, taking nearly half of the mock draft field. Up-and-coming among the tier-two candidates are LBs Keith Rivers and Dan Connor. Here's the breakdown:

DT Sedrick Ellis 23 (+3)

LB James Laurinaitis 7 (no change)

LB Dan Connor 6 (+2)

DE Vernon Gholston 5 (no change)

LB Keith Rivers 3 (+2)

CB Mike Jenkins 2 (+1)

DT Frank Okam 2 (+1)

DE Calais Campbell 2 (-3)

By position:

DT 26 (+3)

DE 9 (-4)

LB 16 (+4)

WR 1 (no change)

CB 2 (+1)

[HoosierCat]

Lauriniatis' announcement that he was staying in school shook up the mockosphere's first-round Bengals pick a bit. Gaining from James' withdrawl were DT Sedrick Ellis, up 5 votes to a dominant 28, and Penn State LB Dan Connor, up 1 to 7. DE Calais Campbell also picked up a vote.

However, there are ominious signs that Ellis could float up out of the Bengals' reach, with a few mocks now having him selected as high as 3rd overall. To be fair, a few others don't have him going until mid-round because of his size.

DT Sedrick Ellis 28 (+5)

LB Dan Connor 7 (+1)

DE Vernon Gholston 4 (-1)

DE Calais Campbell 3 (+1)

CB Mike Jenkins 2 (no change)

DT Frank Okam 2 (no change)

LB Keith Rivers 2 (-1)

By position:

DT 32 (+6)

LB 13 (-3)

DE 8 (-1)

CB 2 (no change)

S 1 (+1)

WR 1 (no change)

In the second round, USC DE Lawrence Jackson and Auburn DE Quentin Groves each have 2 votes.

[Spor_tees]

Didn't Michael Jenkins say he was going back to OSU too?

[HoosierCat]

Didn't Michael Jenkins say he was going back to OSU too?

He may have. Heaven know that if you are a junior and there's any chance you could be drafted by the Bengals, going back for your senior year has to be attractive!

[Spor_tees]

Didn't Michael Jenkins say he was going back to OSU too?

He may have. Heaven know that if you are a junior and there's any chance you could be drafted by the Bengals, going back for your senior year has to be attractive!

The only reason I asked is I thought it was weird that some mocks dropped Lauranitis but not Jenkins

[COB]

Didn't Michael Jenkins say he was going back to OSU too?

He may have. Heaven know that if you are a junior and there's any chance you could be drafted by the Bengals, going back for your senior year has to be attractive!

Yep, Malcom Jenkins decided to go back for his senior year. How he ended up at OSU is sort of a funny story. He's from Piscataway Township, New Jersey. Not a big football hotbed.

The summer before his senior year in high school his parents sent him for a long summertime visit with an aunt and uncle in Westerville, a suburb of Columbus. His Aunt sees an ad in the Columbus paper for a football camp at Ohio State. "Malcom honey, don't you play football?" Yep, he plays back in New Jersey, but it's not exactly a football hotbed.

So he goes (NCAA rules say the camps have to be open enrollment, so it's not just a camp for your recruits). Jenkins goes and in drills shuts down every recruited receiver OSU has there. Then the coaches notice he's cutting in line to make sure he goes up against the fastest receivers, and he wins every time.

Pretty soon they have to ask him, "Uhh, kid, who are you?" He tells them, assures them his grades are good. They run and research his name. Sure enough they find he's a mild prospect who's drawn interest from Rutgers (which is in Piscataway) and Syracuse. But he's only ranked like 61st cornerback in his senior class, ranked like in the top 700 or 800 high school seniors. Ohio State's coaches can't reconcile what they see on the field and what they read about his ranking. They go with their own eyes, and offer him a full scholarship that very afternoon. He accepts, plays lights out, twice all big ten, 2nd team all american as a junior, wins 3 Big 10 Championships, and he'll probably be a first rounder next year. He just fell in their lap.

[HoosierCat]

Good story, COB.

And yes, OSU CB Malcolm Jenkins is headed back for his senior year.

However, South Florida CB Mike Jenkins is a senior and will be in the draft.

[Spor_tees]

Good story, COB.

And yes, OSU CB Malcolm Jenkins is headed back for his senior year.

However, South Florida CB Mike Jenkins is a senior and will be in the draft.

Yeah I was talking about Malcom Jenkins when I said Michael Jenkins...Michael is an ex-OSU WR that was a first round selection by the Falcons. I guess I got confused when reading through the names...I don't see the Bengals taking Michael Jenkins from South Florida, but I assumed it would be Malcom Jenkins from OSU.

My Bad

[HoosierCat]

Yeah I was talking about Malcom Jenkins when I said Michael Jenkins...Michael is an ex-OSU WR that was a first round selection by the Falcons. I guess I got confused when reading through the names...I don't see the Bengals taking Michael Jenkins from South Florida, but I assumed it would be Malcom Jenkins from OSU.

My Bad

No biggie. Hell, I had to go look it up myself.

Oh, Fromzak over at East Coast Sports finally got off his tail and did his first mock. Add another vote for Calais Campbell to the latest tally...

[HairOnFire]

And yes, OSU CB Malcolm Jenkins is headed back for his senior year.

However, South Florida CB Mike Jenkins is a senior and will be in the draft.

Beat me to it. Mike Jenkins actually shows up as the highest rated CB in several rankings, and much of South Florida's breakthrough season was the result of outstanding secondary play. In fact, his fellow CB partner, Tremaine Williams, is currently projected to be taken in the 3rd round, and has the added value of being an outstanding return specialist.

And I guess it should be noted that Mike Jenkins gets flagged as a character risk on a few sites. Nothing serious that I've found, but some nagging evidence that he's no stranger to "living the life".

[HoosierCat]

In what will likely be my final Bengalszone Big Board update this month, Sedrick Ellis remains the front-runner by a mile. However, his climb is finally slowing down, and the number of mocks that have him drifting upward and out of the Bengals' grasp are increasing. As are, oddly enough, the number that have the team passing on Ellis, usually for Gholston; I guess the memo that Justin Smith will likely be a FA went out.

Gholston is the big climber this time around, doubling his former take. Calais Campbell also got a bump. The breakdown:

DT Sedrick Ellis 29 (+1)

DE Vernon Gholston 8 (+4)

LB Dan Connor 7 (no change)

DE Calais Campbell 5 (+2)

S Kenny Phillips 2 (+1)

CB Mike Jenkins 2 (no change)

LB Keith Rivers 2 (no change)

By position:

DT 32 (no change)

DE 14 (+6)

LB 11 (-2)

CB 2 (no change)

S 2 (+1)

WR 1 (no change)

In the second round, USC DE Lawrence Jackson has taken the lead with 4 votes. Virginia Teck LB Vince Hall is second with 2.

[DesperateDerelict]

Thanks for the good work, Hoosier Buddy !!!

[HairOnFire]

As are, oddly enough, the number that have the team passing on Ellis, usually for Gholston; I guess the memo that Justin Smith will likely be a FA went out.

I think it's even more likely mockers are reacting to the buzz that many scouts consider Ellis to be Dorsey's equal, and a potential Top 5 pick.

In the second round, USC DE Lawrence Jackson has taken the lead with 4 votes. Virginia Teck LB Vince Hall is second with 2.

I'd be happy with Jackson in that spot...as well as a half dozen others. But IMHO that's too early for Hall, and I think his draft stock will fall after the combine.

BTW, Todd McShay did a top ten mock on ESPN yesterday....projecting Sedrick Ellis to the Bengals at #9. One pick later? Kentwan Balmer.

[Wraith]

I just can't imagine 2 DTs going top 8 not with the emphasis on skill position players that means that the other 20-21 starting positions on the field will split 6 top 8 positions? If you figure that 2 QBs will be gone (Ryan and Brohm), 1-2 OTs (Long and maybe Clady), at least one RB (McFadden), At least one DE (Long), and statisticly at least one DB will be gone top 8 (at least 1 DB has gone top 8 every year since 2002, 2 in '06, '05, '04, and '02) which means Talib or Phillips, or Jenkins is likely to acsend to top 8 status. Thats seven players accounted for out of the top eight minimum and 8 if Ghoulston, Clady, or Mendenhall .

Only twice in the last decade (2001 and 2003) have 2 DTs been taken top 8 (John Henderson going 9 in 2002) and four of those years (the last four) none have been taken top 8. Who knows what happens but history is on our side and looking at the team needs I really think its likely that either Ellis or Dorsey drops to #9 (I am not ruling out the possibility that Ellis with a strong combine and individual workout could over take Dorsey and that would be just fine with me).

[DesperateDerelict]

Wraith -

The best chance for one of the top DT's to drop to us is have the 2nd and 3rd tier DT's have a great combine / pro day. You need to root for Bryant, Okam, Sims, and Laws to kick a$$ at their workouts. If Miami, Oakland, etc. feel that they can get a very good DT 2nd round, they may pass on Dorsey and Ellis.

For those rooting for us to take Gholston, they need to cheer on Harvey, C.Ellis, Merling, Groves, Campbell, Jackson, and J.Jones from EMU.

[Wraith]

I see Miami, after alot of postureing, taking one of the Longs, or Ryan, or McFadden before Dorsey and I see Dorsey going @ 4 to Oakland and I see Ellis falling to us. I think both Brohm and Ryan will skyrocket at after the combine and individuals, I think McFadden will become Bush-like and either go 1 or 2. I see Clady and Ghoulston going before our pick at 9.

I could be wrong but this is what my insticts tell me.

[DesperateDerelict]

I see Miami, after alot of postureing, taking one of the Longs, or Ryan, or McFadden before Dorsey and I see Dorsey going @ 4 to Oakland and I see Ellis falling to us. I think both Brohm and Ryan will skyrocket at after the combine and individuals, I think McFadden will become Bush-like and either go 1 or 2. I see Clady and Ghoulston going before our pick at 9.

I could be wrong but this is what my insticts tell me.

Wow - I'm the opposite. I see Ryan dropping out of the top ten, & Brohm out of the 1st round, because the '2nd tier' of quarterbacks (Henne, Woodson, & Booty) will all become more attractive. Same with RB, although McFadden won't get past Baltimore. Those positions that will probably display an upswing, due to the poor caliber of the other players at their respective positions, are OT (Long, Clady); DT (Ellis, Dorsey), and cover CB (McKelvin, Rodgers-Cromartie, and Jenkins).

It's also possible that Ellis is there, and we pick Rivers or (god forbid) Connors instead. LB isn't very deep this year - especially big LB's (240+ lbs).

[BengalszoneBilly]

I see Miami, after alot of postureing, taking one of the Longs, or Ryan, or McFadden before Dorsey and I see Dorsey going @ 4 to Oakland and I see Ellis falling to us. I think both Brohm and Ryan will skyrocket at after the combine and individuals, I think McFadden will become Bush-like and either go 1 or 2. I see Clady and Ghoulston going before our pick at 9.

I could be wrong but this is what my insticts tell me.

Wow - I'm the opposite. I see Ryan dropping out of the top ten, & Brohm out of the 1st round, because the '2nd tier' of quarterbacks (Henne, Woodson, & Booty) will all become more attractive. Same with RB, although McFadden won't get past Baltimore. Those positions that will probably display an upswing, due to the poor caliber of the other players at their respective positions, are OT (Long, Clady); DT (Ellis, Dorsey), and cover CB (McKelvin, Rodgers-Cromartie, and Jenkins).

It's also possible that Ellis is there, and we pick Rivers or (god forbid) Connors instead. LB isn't very deep this year - especially big LB's (240+ lbs).

IMHO the University of Kentucky's Andre Woodson is a much better pick than Brohm. Not that it matters for Cincinnati. We have quality already at QB.

[HoosierCat]

And as we hit mid-February...not much has changed. Ellis continues to drift higher on some boards, but remains far and away the most popular choice. Coming up fast this update is LB Keith Rivers, who jumped 7 votes into the No. 3 slot. Kenny Phillips and Derrick Harvey also got 3 new votes each. The breakdown:

DT Sedrick Ellis 27 (-2)

DE Vernon Gholston 10 (+2)

LB Keith Rivers 9 (+7)

LB Dan Connor 6 (-1)

S Kenny Phillips 5 (+3)

DE Derrick Harvey 3 (+3)

DE Calais Campbell 3 (-2)

DT Kentwan Balmer 2 (+2)

By position:

DT 30 (-2)

DE 18 (+4)

LB 16 (+5)

S 5 (+3)

CB 2 (no change)

OT 1 (+1)

WR 1 (no change)

[HoosierCat]

LB Keith Rivers continues to surge up the Bengalszone Big Board as the consensus that DT Sedric Ellis wont be around at 9 continues to congeal. Overall, the LB position has become a strong second to DT. Among the also-rans, Clemson DE Phillip Merling appears to be emerging as the next DE off the board after Gholston, who still sits in third this update. Pitt LB Dan Connor is fourth, but more than half of his support (and a quarter of Ellis') comes from mocks that haven't been updated since January. The breakdown:

DT Sedrick Ellis 25 (-2)

LB Keith Rivers 13 (+4)

DE Vernon Gholston 11 (+1)

LB Dan Connor 7 (+1)

DE Phillip Merling 4 (+4)

S Kenny Phillips 4 (-1)

DT Kentwan Balmer 3 (+1)

OT Ryan Clady 2 (+1)

DE Derrick Harvey 2 (-1)

By position:

DT 30 (no change)

LB 20 (+4)

DE 18 (no change)

S 4 (-1)

OT 2 (+1)

CB 1 (-1)

In the second round USC DE Lawrence Jackson is the leading choice with 5 votes, followed by Virginia Tech LB Xavier Abidi with 4.

[HoosierCat]

Now it gets interesting. This isn't a full update -- I'm going to give it a few more days for all the post-combine and during-combine mocks to finish filtering in -- but there have already been about 20 mock drafts have updated in the last 3 days. The early story? The combine has broken the No. 9 pick wide open, with the previous consensus devolving into a jumble.

That's not surprising since the previous consensus was DT Sedrick Ellis, who in the eyes of most only solidified a top 5 pick at the combine. However, that's "most," not "all." Four of the most recently updated mocks have the Bengals passing on Sedrick Ellis at No. 9 in favor of Merling or Harvey!

Just looking at the 20 update mocks, here's how they break down:

DT Sedrick Ellis 5

DE Derrick Harvey 5

DE Phillip Merling 3

S Kenny Phillips 2

1 vote each: DT Balmer, OT Clady, DT Dorsey, CB Jenkins, LB Rivers