Tracking the Mocks

[HairOnFire]

What, still no votes for Quentin Groves? Didn't the mockers see him workout in track shorts? The man was SICK!!!!

Just kidding.

IMHO Derrick Harvey is the fast riser in the bunch due to the added weight. Almost overnight he's gone from a 248 lb tweener who needed to answer questions about whether he could drop into pass coverage into a 271 lb pure DE whose pass rush ability is dramatically better than those of a prospect like P. Merling.

Frankly, I still have issues with Harvey's ability to control the edge when teams run his direction, concerns that I don't have with Merling, but this team needs pass rushers.

[TJJackson]

On the other hand, Harvey's timed speed was far worse than expected as well

[HoosierCat]

Add 1 more vote for Dorsey from Steuber's just-posted update over at Fox.

On the other hand, Harvey's timed speed was far worse than expected as well

Harvey's speed was fine. He ran a 4.80. By comparision, superdeduper DE Chris Long ran a 4.71 and a 4.77.

Merling was the one who hurt himself -- he didn't run and only benched about 17 and is seen as in danger of falling to the second.

[TJJackson]

On the other hand, Harvey's timed speed was far worse than expected as well

Harvey's speed was fine. He ran a 4.80. By comparision, superdeduper DE Chris Long ran a 4.71 and a 4.77.

Merling was the one who hurt himself -- he didn't run and only benched about 17 and is seen as in danger of falling to the second.

I guess I didn't express that well. I had expected (more like hoped and prayed, really) Harvey to run in the high 4.6s or low 4.7's, so the extra tenth and a half or so of his timing (I show 4.83) hurt him in my eyes. That said, I am also a big fan of raw speed. The less-than expected speed kinda drops him from my consideration at 9.

[HairOnFire]

I guess I didn't express that well. I had expected (more like hoped and prayed, really) Harvey to run in the high 4.6s or low 4.7's, so the extra tenth and a half or so of his timing (I show 4.83) hurt him in my eyes.

That's the price paid for the weight gain. Had Harvey stayed close to 248/250 he almost certainly would have run a tick faster, and the questions he faced today would have centered on his ability to hold up at the POA or drop into coverage. Instead, he transforms his body and runs a tick slower for scouts who already know how well he rushes the passer.

That said, I am also a big fan of raw speed.

Just a guess, but I wouldn't be a bit suprised if Harvey ran a faster time at his pro day as the added weight takes a little time to get used to. It's also possible that the training he did for the combine didn't hit it's peak properly....with Harvery quickly dropping down to 267 or so.

[DesperateDerelict]

The question is still . . . will we be predominantly a 3-4 or 4-3 defense. If Dorsey or Ellis fall to us and we grab them, we are certainly leaning towards a 4-3. Derrick Harvey is a 4-3 end, 'cause he's not big enough for a 3-4 DE or fast enough for a 3-4 OLB.

If, on the other hand, we are pointing towards a 3-4, then we need to get one of Marvin's 'tweeners' as well as a big DE (rare) and an NT. Ellis, although not ideal, could be used as an NT alternate or the strong side DE in a 3-4. Rivers and Connors are both too light.

Possible 1st rounders (after trade down?): Groves (OLB), Merling or Jackson (DE), Phillips (FS), or the best OT . . . and #9 is (a little) too early for the 1st 4. Best Option: TRADE DOWN for extra 2nd or a couple of 3rds.

2nd Round: Sims or Bryant (NT), Balmer or Dre Moore (LDE), Avery/Howard/Mayo/Adibi/Henderson (LB)

3rd Round: Rubin (NT), Harrison/Laws/C.Ellis (DE), Lofton/J.Jones/Crable/Goff (LB)

4th thru 6th: Take advantage of the great depth at WR, RB, and OT

Of course, without picking up extra picks, we can't also address OL or TE in the early rounds.

More and more, I'm hoping we TRADE DOWN!!!

[duus]

Of course, without picking up extra picks, we can't also address OL or TE in the early rounds.

More and more, I'm hoping we TRADE DOWN!!!

I'm with you here. My best scenario is that one of the 'big names' falls to us at the 9th spot and we have two or three clubs that step up and compete to trade with us. Trading down at this point would make my day.

[DesperateDerelict]

King Mel Kiper du la Hair, the ESPN talking head nobody cites but everybody compares their draft results with, has really shaken up his "Big Board" after the combine. Oddly enough, he has Phil Merling up to #9, and Balmer up to #12. Falluing out of the top 20 are Rivers, Connors, Harvey, Mike Jenkins, and Phillips from Miami.

Dorsey only fell to 3rd, behind both McFadden and Matt Ryan.

1. Darren McFadden Jr. RB Arkansas

2. Matt Ryan Sr. QB Boston College

3. Glenn Dorsey Sr. DT LSU

4. Chris Long Sr. DE Virginia

5. Jake Long Sr. OT Michigan

6. Sedrick Ellis Sr. DT USC

7. Vernon Gholston Jr. DE Ohio St.

8. Aqib Talib Jr. CB Kansas

9. Phillip Merling Jr. DE Clemson

10. Chris Williams Sr. OT Vanderbilt

11. Ryan Clady Jr. OT Boise St.

12. Rashard Mendenhall Jr. RB Illinois

13. Kentwan Balmer Sr. DT North Carolina

14. Leodis McKelvin Sr. CB Troy

15. Malcolm Kelly Jr. WR Oklahoma

16. Jonathan Stewart Jr. RB Oregon

17. Calais Campbell Jr. DE Miami

18. Jeff Otah Sr. OT Pittsburgh

19. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie Sr. CB Tennessee St.

20. Brandon Albert Jr. OG Virginia

21. Derrick Harvey Jr. DE Florida

22. Mike Jenkins Sr. CB South Florida

23. Keith Rivers Sr. LB USC

24. Chilo Rachal Jr. OG USC

25. DeSean Jackson Jr. WR California

In related news, some of the preliminary 2009 mock drafts have ZERO QBs in the first round, perhaps putting a premium on that position in this years draft

[HoosierCat]

Resplendent in his Trojan armor, Sir Sedrick of Ellis continues to rout all challengers to his dominance on the Bengalszone Big Board. For every mock that pushes him above 9, there's another that drops him back to us. Meanwhile, in the also-ran ranks, Glenn Dorsey makes a strong push, based no doubt on the injury concerns raised at the combine. The departure of Justin Smith finally had time to register throughout the mockosphere, but the signing of ex-Titan Antwan Odom apparently hasn't, leading to a surge in the DE ranks, led by Derrick Harvey. The loser this update was LB Keith Rivers, but it seems likely that his stock will rise again once the Odom signing registers.

DT Sedrick Ellis 24 (-1)

DE Vernon Gholston 11 (no change)

DT Glenn Dorsey 8 (+8)

DE Derrick Harvey 8 (+6)

LB Keith Rivers 7 (-6)

LB Dan Connor 6 (-1)

DE Phillip Merling 5 (+1)

S Kenny Phillips 3 (-1)

DT Kentwan Balmer 3 (no change)

OT Ryan Clady 2 (no change)

By position:

DT 35 (+5)

DE 25 (+7)

LB 13 (-7)

S 3 (-1)

OT 2 (no change)

CB 1 (no change)

In the second round, Oklahoma LB Curtis Lofton is rising with 4 votes, while former leader, USC DE Lawrence Jackson, drops to just a deuce. LB Xavier Abidi and TE Fred Davis have 3 votes. DT Trevor Laws and LB Erin Henderson remain in the mix as well.

[HoosierCat]

Surging this update is...Sedrick Ellis -- if way-far-out-in-front-runners can be said to "surge." Glenn Dorsey is making a solid run at the top spot, however, but still lags.

I've added another number this update: March Mocks (MM). This represents the number of votes for that player or position that have come from mocks updated this month. I think that gives a better indication of trends than just the +/- figure. Looking at just recently updated projections, Ellis' lead over Dorsey is far smaller, Gholston's strength lies mostly in older projections, and guys like Dan Connor are just leftover names.

DT Sedrick Ellis 28 (+4) MM: 17

DT Glenn Dorsey 11 (+3) MM: 10

DE Vernon Gholston 10 (-1) MM: 3

LB Keith Rivers 8 (+1) MM: 5

DE Derrick Harvey 8 (no change) MM: 5

DE Phillip Merling 7 (+2) MM: 4

LB Dan Connor 5 (-1) MM: 0

DT Kentwan Balmer 2 (-1) MM: 0

OT Ryan Clady 2 (no change) MM: 1

By position:

DT 41 (+6) MM: 27

DE 24 (-1) MM: 12

LB 13 (no change) MM: 5

CB 2 (+1) MM: 1

OT 2 (no change) MM: 1

RB 1 (+1) MM: 1

S 1 (-2) MM: 0

In the second round, Oklahoma LB Curtis Lofton still has 4 votes, while Xavier Abidi, Trevor Laws, Erin Henderson and Quentin Groves have 3 each. Pat Sims, Jarod Mayo and Lawrence Jackson have 2 apiece.

[HoosierCat]

That creaking sound you hear is the straining of the axles on the Sedrick-Ellis-in-stripes bandwagon. His stock at 9 continues to rise, with 40 of the 90 mocks being tracked on the BZ mock draft database tapping him for the selection. Meanwhile, the Glenn Dorsey boomlet appears to be running out of steam as the combine-rumor-mill-fueled concerns over old injuries dissipates. LB Keith Rivers continues to amass a following, but remains far behind Ellis.

DT Sedrick Ellis 40 (+12) MM: 32 (+15)

LB Keith Rivers 10 (+2) MM: 8 (+3)

DT Glenn Dorsey 10 (-1) MM: 10 (no change)

DE Vernon Gholston 6 (-4) MM: 3 (no change)

DE Derrick Harvey 5 (-3) MM: 5 (no change)

DE Phillip Merling 4 (-3) MM: 4 (no change)

OT Ryan Clady 3 (+1) MM: 2 (+1)

RB Rashard Mendenhall 2 (+1) MM: 2 (+1)

LB Dan Connor 2 (-3) MM: 0 (no change)

By position:

DT 50 (+9) MM: 40 (+13)

DE 18 (-6) MM: 15 (+3)

LB 12 (-1) MM: 8 (+3)

CB 2 (no change) MM: 1 (no change)

OT 4 (+2) MM: 3 (+2)

RB 3 (+2) MM: 3 (+2)

S 1 (no change) MM: 0 (no change)

[DesperateDerelict]

DE Phillip Merling 4 (-3) MM: 4 (no change)

Hoosier - Thanx again

I can't believe 4 idiots still have Mr Hernia Merling as an option - he's probably available at our 2nd round pick !!

[HoosierCat]

No prob, DD. BTW, Groves picked up another fan in the last couple days, so he's up to 2 votes now.

It's too early for another Big Board update, but it's also probably worth noting that in the 20-odd mocks updated (or in a couple cases like King's & Kirwan's, added) that Ellis' lead is collapsing to almost nothing. Here's mock's updated from the 21st - 25th, with totals in parens. Harvey and Rivers are getting big bumps, with Rivers now actually surging into second overall. It will be interesting to see if the trend holds as more updates roll in.

DT Sedrick Ellis 7 (37, -3)

DT Glenn Dorsey 6 (11, +1)

DE Derrick Harvey 4 (8, +3)

LB Keith Rivers 3 (13, +3)

DE Quentin Groves 2 (0, +2)

(DE Gholston, DE Merling, OT Clady 1 each)

[HoosierCat]

The River(s) is rising, but Ellis remains the favorite. Though Dorsey's numbers bumped up a bit, expect them to fall quickly as news of his successful pro day spreads. My early read from very recent updates is that those getting off the Dorsey bandwagon will switch to one of the other three leaders. Note that one of Vernon Gholston's votes is a via a recent update from the respected Ourlads scouting service, which apparently thinks he'll slip to us.

In the second round, Maryland LB Erin Henderson has broken out to a 3-vote lead (7 total) over fellow LB Jared Mayo and DT Pat Sims.

DT Sedrick Ellis 41 (+1)

LB Keith Rivers 15 (+5)

DT Glenn Dorsey 13 (+3)

DE Derrick Harvey 7 (+2)

DE Vernon Gholston 5 (-1)

DE Quentin Groves 2 (+1)

LB Dan Connor 2 (no change)

OT Ryan Clady 2 (-1)

By position:

DT 53 (+3)

LB 17 (+5)

DE 16 (-2)

OT 4 (no change)

CB 2 (no change)

RB 1 (-2)

S 1 (no change)

In the second round:

LB Erin Henderson 7

LB Jared Mayo 4

DT Pat Sims 4

DT Red Bryant 3

DE Quentin Groves 2

TE Fred Davis 2

LB Xavier Abidi 2

DE Lawrence Jackson 2

[BengalszoneBilly]

The River(s) is rising, but Ellis remains the favorite. Though Dorsey's numbers bumped up a bit, expect them to fall quickly as news of his successful pro day spreads. My early read from very recent updates is that those getting off the Dorsey bandwagon will switch to one of the other three leaders. Note that one of Vernon Gholston's votes is a via a recent update from the respected Ourlads scouting service, which apparently thinks he'll slip to us.

In the second round, Maryland LB Erin Henderson has broken out to a 3-vote lead (7 total) over fellow LB Jared Mayo and DT Pat Sims.

DT Sedrick Ellis 41 (+1)

LB Keith Rivers 15 (+5)

DT Glenn Dorsey 13 (+3)

DE Derrick Harvey 7 (+2)

DE Vernon Gholston 5 (-1)

DE Quentin Groves 2 (+1)

LB Dan Connor 2 (no change)

OT Ryan Clady 2 (-1)

By position:

DT 53 (+3)

LB 17 (+5)

DE 16 (-2)

OT 4 (no change)

CB 2 (no change)

RB 1 (-2)

S 1 (no change)

In the second round:

LB Erin Henderson 7

LB Jared Mayo 4

DT Pat Sims 4

DT Red Bryant 3

DE Quentin Groves 2

TE Fred Davis 2

LB Xavier Abidi 2

DE Lawrence Jackson 2

From the online mocks I've been reading, they've been steady with Cincinnati taking Ellis at #9.

[HoosierCat]

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Ellis is still kicking everyone's a$$ in the first. Henderson is still rising in the second.

DT Sedrick Ellis 48 (+7)

DT Glenn Dorsey 15 (+2)

LB Keith Rivers 9 (-6)

DE Derrick Harvey 7 (no change)

OT Ryan Clady 4 (+2)

DE Vernon Gholston 4 (-1)

DE Quentin Groves 2 (no change)

LB Dan Connor 2 (no change)

By position:

DT 64 (+11)

DE 14 (-2)

LB 11 (-6)

OT 6 (+2)

CB 2 (no change)

RB 1 (no change)

S 1 (no change)

In the second round:

LB Erin Henderson 9 (+2)

LB Curtis Lofton 4 (+4)

DT Pat Sims 4 (no change)

LB Jared Mayo 3 (-1)

DE Quentin Groves 2 (no change)

TE Fred Davis 2 (no change)

LB Xavier Abidi 2 (no change)

DE Lawrence Jackson 2 (no change)

[DesperateDerelict]

As always, good job! Ya know, Hoosier, I'd be the last to complain . . . . but what about the 2 third rounders? 4th Round? Our 2 7th rounders?? let me try (just those since April Fools).

Let's see - we've got

Round 3A (#77)

Donnie Avery (WR) - TWICE**

Shawn Crable (OLB)

Chris Ellis (DE)

Matt Forte (RB)

John Greco (OT) - TWICE**

Lavelle Hawkins (WR)

Marcus Howard (OLB)

Chevis Jackson (CB)

Tyrell Johnson (SS)

Dustin Keller (TE)

Round 3B (#97)

Martellus Bennett (TE)

Matt Forte (RB)

Lavelle Hawkins (WR)

Jason Jones (DE)

Jordy Nelson (WR)

Frank Okam (DT)

Drew Radovich (OG)

Darrell Robertson (DE)

Steve Slaton* (RB)

Kevin Smith (RB) - TWICE**

Round 4 (#112)

Martellus Bennett (WR)

Johnny Dingle (DE)

Eddie Royal (WR)

Orlando Scandrick (CB)

Jerome Simpson (WR)

DeJuan Tribble (CB)

Wow - I thought this was alot of work. Interesting, huh? Lots of depth at WR, DB, & OL

[HoosierCat]

As always, good job! Ya know, Hoosier, I'd be the last to complain . . . . but what about the 2 third rounders? 4th Round? Our 2 7th rounders?? let me try (just those since April Fools).

Hey, you want to dig deeper, be my guest. Nice job. Assuming the first two picks are Ellis and Henderson, I like the lineup of OT (or G or C) - RB - WR over the next three picks.

[Wraith]

Safety! We need to spend a 3rd on Safety IMHO

[DesperateDerelict]

Safety! We need to spend a 3rd on Safety IMHO

Safeties are really all over the board - I've seen the same safeties (Morgan - Demps - Tyrell jackson) going in the 2nd & 3rd & 4th. In a 'weak' year for safeties, I REALLY like CB-S combos, especially Reggie Smith.

[TJJackson]

We have a lot of safeties to try out already on the roster

Let's find our third corner - otherwise known as Deltha's replacement - in r4 or later. And it'd be bonus if the guy is a premier KR and/or PR

First three rounds (incl comp 3) should come from one of: DL, OL, OLB, and/or WR

[Wraith]

I still like Ellis Rd. 1, C. Johnson Rd. 2, T. Johnson Rd. 3a, and Zuttah Rd. 4. Would not be dismayed at Adibi, Mayo, Lofton Rd.2 or Beau Bell or Ezra Butler Rd. 3. If Ellis is gone I am warming up to Albert, Williams, or Rivers, I am still VERY leary of Clady because of work ethic and/or intelligence.

[HoosierCat]

The latest count. Nothing new, still the Sedrick Ellis show in the first. Henderson's lead slipped in the second, but he's still hanging in there.

DT Sedrick Ellis 59 (+11)

DT Glenn Dorsey 15 (no change)

LB Keith Rivers 11 (+2)

DE Derrick Harvey 5 (-2)

OT Ryan Clady 3 (-1)

DE Vernon Gholston 3 (-1)

DE Philip Merling 2 (+2)

DE Quentin Groves 2 (no change)

LB Dan Connor 2 (no change)

By position:

DT 74 (+10)

DE 10 (-4)

LB 13 (+2)

OT 5 (-1)

CB 2 (no change)

RB 1 (no change)

In the second round:

LB Erin Henderson 7 (-2)

LB Curtis Lofton 5 (+1)

LB Jared Mayo 4 (+1)

DT Trevor Laws 3 (+2)

DE Lawrence Jackson 3 (+1)

LB Cliff Avril 2 (+2)

DT Dre Moore 2 (+1)

DT Red Bryant 2 (+1)

WR Mario Manningham 2 (+1)

LB Xavier Abidi 2 (no change)

[HoosierCat]

Well, if Sedrick Ellis proves half as durable and unmoveable as his stock on the Bengalszone Big Board, he’s a sure-fire hall-of-famer. Mendenhall is amassing a small following among those predicting both top DTs will be gone, but Rivers is still the top alternative. The second round is far more interesting. LB Henderson gained back some ground but both Cliff Avril and Xavier Abidi have jumped up behind him.

DT Sedrick Ellis 69 (+10)

LB Keith Rivers 14 (+3)

DT Glenn Dorsey 9 (-6)

RB Rashard Mendenhall 3 (+2)

DE Vernon Gholston 3 (no change)

DE Derrick Harvey 3 (-2)

CB Leodis McKelvin 2 (+2)

DE Philip Merling 2 (no change)

DE Quentin Groves 2 (no change)

OT Ryan Clady 2 (-1)

By position:

DT 78 (+4)

LB 15 (+2)

DE 10 (no change)

RB 4 (+3)

CB 3 (+1)

OT 3 (-2)

In the second round:

LB Erin Henderson 8 (+1)

LB Xavier Abidi 4 (+2)

LB Cliff Avril 4 (+2)

LB Curtis Lofton 4 (-1)

WR Mario Manningham 3 (+1)

DT Trevor Laws 3 (no change)

DE Lawrence Jackson 3 (no change)

LB Jared Mayo 3 (-1)

DT Pat Sims 2 (+1)

DT Dre Moore 2 (no change)

[DesperateDerelict]

I'm not sure which I'd prefer if the choices are: Rivers / Laws or Ellis / Henderson. Probably the latter, because LB is easier to fill late than DT.

Obviously, Dorsey / Groves isn't getting much play . . . .