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HoosierCat

Week 18: Bengals @ Browns

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While the Clowns have been sent out, Pitt and Balti still have very long shot chances. Per espn:

Despite losing five consecutive games, the Ravens aren't out of it yet. To get into the playoffs, they will need to beat the Steelers in Week 18 and get losses by the Colts, Browns, Chargers and Dolphins.

The Steelers can clinch a playoff berth by winning their final two games -- on Monday night against the Browns and in Week 18 at the Ravens -- and getting a loss by the Colts.

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I tweeted to Cincyjungle asking them to do a seeding article...ie, for each seed the Bengals could end up with, 1-4, how will they get there?

afaik all 4 seeds are possible, albeit the sun has to rise in the west for seed 1 to come to us :-)

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Went through the playoff predictor. as far as I can see the #1, #3, and #4 seeds are available.

We win versus Cleveland I believe we wrap up the #3 seed.  We lose we are #4.

We win and KC AND Tenn both lose (highly unlikely) we get the #1 seed

 

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13 minutes ago, Wraith said:

Went through the playoff predictor. as far as I can see the #1, #3, and #4 seeds are available.

We win versus Cleveland I believe we wrap up the #3 seed.  We lose we are #4.

We win and KC AND Tenn both lose (highly unlikely) we get the #1 seed

 

I'm pretty sure the Bengals would get the #2 seed based on a conference record tie breaker with Tennessee. So if the Bengals win and Tennessee loses at Houston, the Bengals would get the #2 seed. Same thing if the Chiefs lose and the Bengals win, the Bengals get the #2 seed. So it looks like the 1-4 seeds are open.

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Something interesting...

According to PFF Joe Burrow for the season has 15 Turnover Worthy Plays against 14 INTs, now some of those INTs have come on non-Turnover Worthy Plays (example the Throw to Chase which he bobbled and it landed with the Chargers DB) but by and large, he has been the unluckiest QB in the NFL statistically by a fairly wide margin.

I wonder if the reason is tied to how catchable his ball is, stands to reason that if a ball is more catchable for the WR it is also more catchable to the DB.  He throws these incredible arcing spirals that are landing  most of the time in perfect position but if he misreads something or misses a throw it is very likely an INT.  Worth monitoring to see if this trend is an aberration or a real thing. 

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2 hours ago, Wraith said:

Something interesting...

According to PFF Joe Burrow for the season has 15 Turnover Worthy Plays against 14 INTs, now some of those INTs have come on non-Turnover Worthy Plays (example the Throw to Chase which he bobbled and it landed with the Chargers DB) but by and large, he has been the unluckiest QB in the NFL statistically by a fairly wide margin.

I wonder if the reason is tied to how catchable his ball is, stands to reason that if a ball is more catchable for the WR it is also more catchable to the DB.  He throws these incredible arcing spirals that are landing  most of the time in perfect position but if he misreads something or misses a throw it is very likely an INT.  Worth monitoring to see if this trend is an aberration or a real thing. 

This is true; I once caught a Joe Burrow ball that fluttered through my open window and landed in my lap. Wife says I was just drunk but I know better. 

That is an interesting statistic though. If you're gonna screw up your read, I guess make sure you throw a duck?

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Just something to keep an eye on, MacPherson has some minor ding.

 

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7 minutes ago, Wraith said:

Man I want CJ to resign, he is the heart and soul of this team.

 

My head says it’s borderline, my heart says you’re nuts to let this guy go for just that reason.  Also want to add that when anyone is looking at that big Chase pickup on 3rd and 27, look who picks up the blitzer allowing Burrow to make the throw…

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I mean, I think they can bring in a TE if they want for an "upgrade", but whatever happens I want CJ Uzomah on the roster moving forward. He is at worst an above average #2 TE, and he is a fantastic leader.

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1 minute ago, Stripes said:

I mean, I think they can bring in a TE if they want for an "upgrade", but whatever happens I want CJ Uzomah on the roster moving forward. He is at worst an above average #2 TE, and he is a fantastic leader.

That's the play right there. Keep the leadership on board, let the man play in the rotation and look for someone with top talent to play along side him. 

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So do we

1. rest starters (thinking: seed 4 is fine, a rested/healthy New Guy et al is best)

2. play starters for a series or three, like preseason game 4, to keep the rust off but limit exposure to injury (thinking: seed 4 is fine but we dont want rusty starters)

3. play starters (thinking: risking injury to starters but trying keep from sliding down to seed 4, with minor possibility of moving up in seeding)

Gimme option 1.  I dont want Burrow exposed to Browns pass rushers.

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1 minute ago, TJJackson said:

So do we

1. rest starters (thinking: seed 4 is fine, a rested/healthy New Guy et al is best)

2. play starters for a series or three, like preseason game 4, to keep the rust off but limit exposure to injury (thinking: seed 4 is fine but we dont want rusty starters)

3. play starters (thinking: risking injury to starters but trying keep from sliding down to seed 4, with minor possibility of moving up in seeding)

Gimme option 1.  I dont want Burrow exposed to Browns pass rushers.

 

Given what I've seen the last few games, the game plan will be to throw the ball 30 yards on every down until we score 41 points. Even if we have the ball on the 1 yard line. Even if we should be kicking the game winning field goal. 

All kidding aside, I would take option 3. We aren't eliminated from #1 seed contention and even if it's a long shot, wouldn't that be a hell of a nice way to rest the team? 

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33 minutes ago, cincyhokie said:

Ah shit. ZT gave them Monday off again…

Given that I want them to rest burrow, Hendrickson, Mixon, and anyone with bumps anything approaching the need for rest this weekend, fine by me this time around.

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33 minutes ago, cincyhokie said:

Ah shit. ZT gave them Monday off again…

I think even mem will let it slide this time…

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1 seed not gonna happen (need both titans and chiefs to lose and they are playing Texans and broncos so…) and…4 seed might be better option into titans side of bracket than a potential second round game in KC or Buffalo…

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1 minute ago, HoosierCat said:

I think even mem will let it slide this time…

I did!

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18 minutes ago, membengal said:

1 seed not gonna happen (need both titans and chiefs to lose and they are playing Texans and broncos so…) and…4 seed might be better option into titans side of bracket than a potential second round game in KC or Buffalo…

Chiefs play Denver on Saturday too, so chances are that any shot at the 1 seed is gone by Saturday night. In that case I think they rest the starters as much as possible.

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