First Round #21: OT Cedric Ogbuehi

[HoosierCat]

Strictly from a value perspective, I think Ogbuhei is (though no fault of his own) being set up to fail.

The rule of thumb in trading picks is that if a trade would cost, say, a fourth round this year but the team wants to give a pick in the next year's draft instead, the cost increases by a round. So a fourth round this year is equal to a third round next year. Since Ced may not play for part or all of this year, and in any case isn't likely to be at 100%, I view this as a pick they've basically pushed off for a year. (You can almost write the spring 2016 "it's like having two first round picks" stories for Hobson right now.)

So basically, anything less than a Hall of Fame player is going to be a disappointment given what Ogbuhei cost.

[Scottishbengal]

I think the Bengals saw what they viewed as a top 10 talent at #21. If you're going by BPA, then that's your pick.

Gregory was thought of as being a possible Top 5 pick, Dupree as a Top 10 pick, La'ell Collins as somewhere between a 10 and 20 pick. Either would have added depth quality this year and maybe even been impactful

[HoosierCat]

Oh, and to the aforementioned value, Jay Morrison at the DDN reports that the Cardinals at 24 tried to trade up to 21 to grab Bud Dupree, but the Bengals declined. They offered a mid-round pick this year and a pick in 2016. Ogbuhei almost certainly would have still been on the board.

Damnit.

[GapControl]

Don't really have any problem with him at LT. I hink Whit slides to guard in his twilight years and maybe Boling goes to RT. Or he is cut and a new RT or Smith resigned. White an All Pro G at this point with a healthy knee.

[GapControl]

The rookie sits a year save injury and the line retools after this season.

[GapControl]

Whit not white*

[princeton]

Strictly from a value perspective, I think Ogbuhei is (though no fault of his own) being set up to fail.

The rule of thumb in trading picks is that if a trade would cost, say, a fourth round this year but the team wants to give a pick in the next year's draft instead, the cost increases by a round. So a fourth round this year is equal to a third round next year. Since Ced may not play for part or all of this year, and in any case isn't likely to be at 100%, I view this as a pick they've basically pushed off for a year. (You can almost write the spring 2016 "it's like having two first round picks" stories for Hobson right now.)

So basically, anything less than a Hall of Fame player is going to be a disappointment given what Ogbuhei cost.

picks in first round show higher value variations. the 21 overall pick in 2015 is certainly not worth the number 1 overall in 2016; more like a top 10 pick in 2016. Bengals can reasonably argue that's the trade that they made. Whether Ogbuhei plays like a top 10 in 2016 remains to be seen, but he doesn't have to be a HoFer to justify the pick. Andre Smith was picked around that area; Ogbuhei needs to play as well as Smith. How hard is that?

[skyline]

I think the Bengals saw what they viewed as a top 10 talent at #21. If you're going by BPA, then that's your pick.

Gregory was thought of as being a possible Top 5 pick, Dupree as a Top 10 pick, La'ell Collins as somewhere between a 10 and 20 pick. Either would have added depth quality this year and maybe even been impactful

And maybe not. *shrug*

Ogbuhei seems to think he'll be ready for training camp. So, who knows...maybe he'll have an impact this year as well.

[HoosierCat]

Ogbuhei needs to play as well as Smith. How hard is that?

What, you mean play two conmplete 16-game seasons in six years? Yeah, that's probably not a hard record to beat...

[cincyhokie]

Oh, and to the aforementioned value, Jay Morrison at the DDN reports that the Cardinals at 24 tried to trade up to 21 to grab Bud Dupree, but the Bengals declined. They offered a mid-round pick this year and a pick in 2016. Ogbuhei almost certainly would have still been on the board.

Damnit.

More evidence that they were locked in on getting Ced O before the draft even started.

So much for letting talent fall to you.

[redsbengalsbucks]

The tape of this kid does look pretty impressive.

[skyline]

The tape of this kid does look pretty impressive.

Yes. Yes it does. They feel like he's our next Whitworth/Willie Anderson.

If that pans out, then this pick will be a pretty amazing investment. Like with all draft picks, time shall tell.

[TJJackson]

worried about his strength

not like I was (and still am) with Tanner "13 Reps" Hawkinson

but 23 reps for an OL is still on the wrong side of average

[HoosierCat]

Setting aside the issue of the ACL, the thing that concerns me most is his back. Reports are that he was held out of practices all of his last year with the Aggies because they didn't want to risk him hurting it. And that appeared to show up on the field,since his final year wasn't as strong as 2013, after which he might have been a top 10 guy if he'd come out.

He's also a bit older (just turned 23 a week ago). Someone on another board made a comparison to Levi Jones, in that he could have a very good but brief career in the NFL. I could see that happening. Time will tell.

[Kazkal]

I haven't bothered to read the comments here. I'm assuming they're mostly negative?

Anyway, I'm very pleased with the pick assuming his injury recovery is going well. We have two premier OL heading into contract years. So, we get one of the best OTs in the draft to keep the bus rolling once the contract situations start to shake out.

It's hard to adjust to...the Bengals being a team where they don't NEED their first rounder to come in and produce right away. It's a luxury. Hopefully it all pans out and we just got ourselves a top 10 OT at #21.

But isn't that a but presumptive for a team that hasn't gotten past that first round playoff game? Seems like work still to be done, improvements to be made. In fact, isn't it evety team's objective to get an impact player in r1?

There were lots of heard scratches across the league, another WR for Luck, Gurley to the Rams when they have decent backs, another OT for the Saints who are stocked... I see your point but I think it comes down to the player they selected. An injured guy who graded out pretty high but it's all pure conjecture.

I see it as a luxury pick, for a team with some gaping holes that really doesn't have the luxury to waste a real chance to improve mightily with a smart r1 pick, maybe Malcolm Brown or Shane Ray or Dupree, or a guy who can very likely contribute to winning that playoff game that has eluded them.

I'm warming to the pick now but I don't see the wisdom, considering what else could have been had.

Well almost everyone would been fine with a OT in the first if he was healthy to play this season,But if Whitworth and bigdre stay healthy then even a different OT would still be riding the bench...so here's hoping whit and dre stay healthy

[kingwilly]

I haven't bothered to read the comments here. I'm assuming they're mostly negative?

Anyway, I'm very pleased with the pick assuming his injury recovery is going well. We have two premier OL heading into contract years. So, we get one of the best OTs in the draft to keep the bus rolling once the contract situations start to shake out.

It's hard to adjust to...the Bengals being a team where they don't NEED their first rounder to come in and produce right away. It's a luxury. Hopefully it all pans out and we just got ourselves a top 10 OT at #21.

But isn't that a but presumptive for a team that hasn't gotten past that first round playoff game? Seems like work still to be done, improvements to be made. In fact, isn't it evety team's objective to get an impact player in r1?

There were lots of heard scratches across the league, another WR for Luck, Gurley to the Rams when they have decent backs, another OT for the Saints who are stocked... I see your point but I think it comes down to the player they selected. An injured guy who graded out pretty high but it's all pure conjecture.

I see it as a luxury pick, for a team with some gaping holes that really doesn't have the luxury to waste a real chance to improve mightily with a smart r1 pick, maybe Malcolm Brown or Shane Ray or Dupree, or a guy who can very likely contribute to winning that playoff game that has eluded them.

I'm warming to the pick now but I don't see the wisdom, considering what else could have been had.

Well almost everyone would been fine with a OT in the first if he was healthy to play this season,But if Whitworth and bigdre stay healthy then even a different OT would still be riding the bench...so here's hoping whit and dre stay healthy

That's why this pick could end up being a bad move. Whit and Andre can't (obviously) guarantee they stay healthy. So should one go down, they'd b hard pressed to push the new kid on the field before he's ready. This leaves the immediate issue of depth still a concern. Maybe they take another OT? Wouldn't that be something?

[princeton]

I can't remember any rookie ever missing all or part of a Marvin training camp, then getting much playing time at all during the season?

Andre Smith missed all of first training camp due to holdout, then didn't play most of the season. But I suppose that he might have entered the lineup midseason if he hadn't injured his foot that year

[Stripes]

I know nothing about him and hope to keep it that way. Good luck, whoever you are.

[HoosierCat]

Pollack played in all but two games after holding out back in '05. But yeah, generally Marvin's rule is if you don't practice you don't play.

Right now I would bet on him starting the season on PUP anyhow.

[volcom69]

Pollack played in all but two games after holding out back in '05. But yeah, generally Marvin's rule is if you don't practice you don't play.

Right now I would bet on him starting the season on PUP anyhow.

From what it sounded like, that's the plan

[Walrus]

Thought I'd share this scouting video I watched on him a while back. This is a pretty indepth look (over 100 min long) at tape of Ogbuehi's game against S. Carolina this year. You don't have to watch the whole thing, but if you just watch the first few plays these guys have some interesting stuff to say about his game.

/>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-rNIOWWzck

[kingwilly]

Thought I'd share this scouting video I watched on him a while back. This is a pretty indepth look (over 100 min long) at tape of Ogbuehi's game against S. Carolina this year. You don't have to watch the whole thing, but if you just watch the first few plays these guys have some interesting stuff to say about his game.

/>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-rNIOWWzck

I tried to watch come of this but its so long and so disorganized. I;m not just trying to pick on these guys because I applaud anyone doing something they love but , honestly, who outside of professional scouts, have time to assemble this kind of stuff. Kind of nutty, in a way.

[redsbengalsbucks]

After seeing the plan for the whole draft I like this pick a lot more

Let him heal and become our next LT

[kingwilly]

Overall, to me, this is still a luxury pick with some injury risk still attached. I don't know if this player can ever fill the shoes of a guy like Whit, who is a highly underrated. He does not have the length, or strength of his level. Keep in mind, Whit could hang around byond 2016, so where does this leave Cedric and/or Jake? I think his best fit end up at RT, with Jake ending up at LG, should Whit persist.

And all of this begs, was this necessary, given the lost opportunity to get players to help on D in ways the team really lacked, like pass rush and run stopping. Passing on a talent like Gregory twice? wow. passing on some of the WR talent, or backers? In Marvin we trust being pushed to the extreme, even though we all know its old Paul making the decisions.

[Wraith]

Actually no tackle in the draft has the length Ogbuehi has with 35 7/8 long arms. If Cedric was healthy he would have been a top ten pick. No issues with the pick but I do believe he would have been there in the second which frustrates me...this would have been a much better draft if Ogbuehi or Fisher were our second round selection and we had taken another first round talent.