Playoff Possiblities and Scenarios

[membengal]

By the way, that game where they held the Saints to 16 points? Freakin' great showing, in hindsight. They are absolutely ripping Dallas limb from limb tonite...

[derekshank]

My Wild Card predictions after week 14... It will basically be down to a 3-team race.

8-5 Bengals (W over Oakland)

8-5 Chiefs (W over Baltimore)

8-5 Jets (W over Buffalo)

7-6 Broncos (L to San Diego)

7-6 Jaguars (L to Indianapolis)

Whoa... I was way off.

I like the way it actually played out much better. We've got some breathing room now. I don't see Jacksonville winning out. Denver has lost 4 straight and are in a tail-spin, so we should have tie-breakers against virtually anyone. If we win 2 out of 3 (and there is no reason we shouldn't, since we are arguably the hottest team in the NFL right now) the playoffs should be ours.

Things are looking awfully optimistic for a team that was 4-5 just four weeks ago.

[Dan2330]

I say we need to take 2 of 3 to get in, obviously the toughest game will be next week's MNF game against INDY. Right now Denver looks real soft for the taking in Colorado. It would also be nice to see the Steelers drop a few, let's knock them out of any type of playoff possibilty before the final game of the year.

You got to like all the AFC bubble and wild card teams that have dropped games over the past 2 weeks. Look at how the Chiefs went from the number one wild card spot to on the bubble spots now after a bad lose to the Brownies and finally dropping a game at Arrowhead in December. The Jets losing also helped, along with Denver hitting rock bottom.

[WhoDey93285]

Why not just win all of them? We control our own destiny. If we lose to Indy or Denver, I'll feel really uneasy about the Pitt game. They'd like nothing more than to destory our playoffs hopes. I think we can afford to lose one, but its in our best interest not to take our chances against Pitt.

[Whur CHad At?]

We can and should win all of them. But lets not get ahead of ourselves. One game at a time. We really need to play our A game week in week out

[membengal]

Again, Indy is 20-2 in their last 22 home games, and we are having to deal with them on a Monday night when they are coming off two straight losses.

Not only is it hubris to say we SHOULD win all of them, it's flat out insane. If they beat Indy next Monday night, it is an upset in every sense of the word. Don't kid yourselves. The season will come down to Denver on Christmas Eve. And while Denver is reeling right now, that will NOT be an easy game. At. all.

Still, we have a puncher's chance, better than many were giving this team back after the SD debacle. I look forward to the next few weeks and have hope. I love having hope.

[MacD BengalFan]

Why not just win all of them? We control our own destiny. If we lose to Indy or Denver, I'll feel really uneasy about the Pitt game. They'd like nothing more than to destory our playoffs hopes. I think we can afford to lose one, but its in our best interest not to take our chances against Pitt.

Exactly. Winning them all is really the only guarntee the Bengals have for making he playoffs. If the Bengals trip in Indy, they need help from other teams, and that is unsetteling.

[membengal]

If the Bengals lose in Indy, they still won't need help from other teams. If they lose in Indy AND Denver, they will.

Frankly, some of the optimism on this board with respect to next Monday night is unsettling. The Bengals do NOT match up well with Indy, and I am having a hard time seeing a Cincy win, especially against what will be a mad as hell Colts team and defense.

If anyone thinks they will allow the Bengals to run over them like Jax did, they're crazy. Perhaps the way forward will be to take advantage of them in the air while they focus on the ground.

[jjakq27]

Conference standings from NFL.com...

http://www.nfl.com/standings/conference

Remaining games for contending teams:

Baltimore (10-3)

12/17 Cleveland (4-9)

12/24 at Pittsburgh (6-7)

12/31 Buffalo (6-7)

Cincinnati (8-5)

12/18 at Indy (10-3)

12/24 at Denver (7-6)

12/31 Pittsburgh (6-7)

Denver (7-6)

12/17 at Arizona (4-9)

12/24 Cincinnati (8-5)

12/31 San Francisco (5-8)

Jacksonville (8-5)

12/17 at Tennessee (6-7)

12/24 New England (9-4)

12/31 at Kansas City (7-6)

Kansas City (7-6)

12/17 at San Diego (10-3)

12/23 at Oakland (2-11)

12/31 Jacksonville (8-5)

NY Jets (7-6)

12/17 at Minnesota (6-7)

12/25 at Miami (6-7)

12/31 Oakland (2-11)

[Spor_tees]

If the Bengals lose in Indy, they still won't need help from other teams. If they lose in Indy AND Denver, they will.

Frankly, some of the optimism on this board with respect to next Monday night is unsettling. The Bengals do NOT match up well with Indy, and I am having a hard time seeing a Cincy win, especially against what will be a mad as hell Colts team and defense.

If anyone thinks they will allow the Bengals to run over them like Jax did, they're crazy. Perhaps the way forward will be to take advantage of them in the air while they focus on the ground.

If Carson can throw for almost 300 yards against the 3rd ranked Defense in the league against the pass, he could torch the Colts. It doesn't matter what the Colts Defense keys in on, they won't be able to stop the Bengals offense just like everyone else hasn't been able to do. What the game will come down to, is what it always does, the defense. Will the Bengals defense that has shown up the last 4 weeks come out against the Colts, or will the one that couldn't stop SD? That is what will make the difference in this game.

[agreen_112]

2 out of 3 will get us in. I knew at the beginning of the season that these three games would be the deciding factor. This is what's going to seperate us from the past. All we have to do is win. We controll our own fate at this point, no one else. If we win out or 2 out of the 3, we'll be one of the most respected teams in the playoffs.

[Scottishbengal]

All we have to do is win.

What he said.

[Tasher]

If Carson can throw for almost 300 yards against the 3rd ranked Defense in the league against the pass...

Ahem, Oakland was #3 Defense OVERALL, #1 vs the pass. Just FYI.

Minus the Three picks would have been nice, though.

[TJJackson]

Please oh please, beat the Ravens

do it for your embattled coach, Romeo

do it fo your new starter at QB, and his size 72 feet

do it for respect

do it for all that is decent and good

finally, do it for....the Bengals, your cross state buddies :-) yeah, that's it, this week, we's buds.

after all.....just like the Waterboy.....

[ShulaSteakhouse]

too little, too late - outcome of that game doesn't mean anything to us, other than possible location/opponent in the first round of the playoffs right?

[HoosierCat]

too little, too late - outcome of that game doesn't mean anything to us, other than possible location/opponent in the first round of the playoffs right?

True, but that whole location/opponent thing includes a (very) longshot chance of PBS hosting a game WC weekend. Balti is 10-3 and 4-1 in the division, versus our 8-5 and 5-1 in the divison. So there's still a chance of us taking the AFCN title. But it would require a near-complete collapse by the Ravens, which seem extremely unlikely now.

[TJJackson]

That collapse pretty much has to start this week :-)

GO BROWNS!

[CarsonPalmer9]

GO BROWNS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

WHO DEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[jjakq27]

If Carson can throw for almost 300 yards against the 3rd ranked Defense in the league against the pass...

Ahem, Oakland was #3 Defense OVERALL, #1 vs the pass. Just FYI.

Minus the Three picks would have been nice, though.

Warren Sapp said they were unable to stop or disrupt anything the Bengals were doing yesterday. One of the DB's also said they have not seen a team like this all year and that's from a guy that plays SD, KC and Denver twice a year.

[Ox]

I could care less about the crown at this point. It's all about the playoffs now baby.

[derekshank]

Warren Sapp said they were unable to stop or disrupt anything the Bengals were doing yesterday. One of the DB's also said they have not seen a team like this all year and that's from a guy that plays SD, KC and Denver twice a year.

Certainly high praise coming from a defense that has played SD twice already this year. But really... is it surprising? What other team has the number of weapons we have?

Oakland plays a lot of man coverage. They are not used to facing WR's like Chad, Housh and Henry, having a QB as prolific as Palmer, and a bruising RB in Rudi to keep you honest. We haven't been as productive as SD this year on offense... but it isn't because of a lack of weapons. If we are clicking, we're the best offense in the NFL. Unfortunately because of injuries to the O-Line and Palmer's rehab... it has taken us most of the season to get clicking.

[derekshank]

I could care less about the crown at this point. It's all about the playoffs now baby.

Yeah... I'm not sure how much winning the division benefits us when it comes to the playoffs right now. The only difference would be one home game (we have no shot at a bye week)... and we are actually playing better on the road right now.

It's never an easy road to the Super Bowl... but if the season were to end today, we'd be in real good shape. We'd be @NE adn then @Indy. Those are two very winnable games. Of course, if we win out, we'll probably be knocking Indy out of their bye week.

[HoosierCat]

(we have no shot at a bye week)

We might. I haven't gone through all the permutations but I'm pretty sure it's at least mathematically possible. It would require not just the Ravens but also the Pats and Colts to tank, and the Bengals would probably have to win out to boot. One of the top two seeds is gone now since we lose any tiebreaker to the Chargers and the best we can do is tie them overall -- but the second seed is still possible, if just barely.

[derekshank]

(we have no shot at a bye week)

We might. I haven't gone through all the permutations but I'm pretty sure it's at least mathematically possible. It would require not just the Ravens but also the Pats and Colts to tank, and the Bengals would probably have to win out to boot. One of the top two seeds is gone now since we lose any tiebreaker to the Chargers and the best we can do is tie them overall -- but the second seed is still possible, if just barely.

Yeah... it's mathematically possible to get the 2nd seed. We would have to win out, having the Ravens lose 2 of their last 3, We would need Indy to lose at least 2 more game (one of them being against us), and we would need the Pats to lose 2 of 3, because they have the head-to-head tie breaker on us.

Yes... it's mathematically possible. But I stand by my claim "we have no shot at a bye week"

[HoosierCat]

Yes... it's mathematically possible. But I stand by my claim "we have no shot at a bye week"

Well, "no" shot is technically incorrect, since we do in fact have a shot. Something along the lines of an "impossible shot" I agree with. But its been an absolutely goofy year in the league.

But in any event, it all doesn't matter unless we beat Indy, so that's job one. Frankly, since the Bengals play on Monday and will thus spend Sunday scoreboard watching, I'm half-hoping some games don't fall their way. Don't want them relaxing against the Colts...