Bengals, Dalton Closing in on Deal

[HoosierCat]

Via CJ, Ian Rapoport says a deal is coming that will include more guaranteed coin than Kap's.

"Just talking to Bengals sources, Dalton should get a deal similar to Colin Kaepernick, and when you look at where it will be similar, it's the guaranteed money. From what I understand, the Bengals are actually set and prepared to pay Andy Dalton more guaranteed money than Colin Kaepernick, making one think that this is a deal that could happen fairly quickly, and Andy Dalton will be installed as their franchise quarterback for years to come. "

/>http://www.cincyjungle.com/2014/7/26/5939685/bengals-andy-dalton-more-guaranteed-money-colin

It would be nice to get things settled, one way or the other.

[Wraith]

Long term deals for Dalton and Burfict and I will be a happy Bengals fan.

[ArmyBengal]

I'll be happy when it's all said and done to be honest.

It's something everyone has had to have seen coming for quite some time with everything the front office and coaches have said.

People can argue all they want (and they will) but i'll be happy.

If it allows them to move forward with another like Burfict, then that's just one extra bonus to the whole situation.

It's not like anyone can argue that Burfict isn't one of the most deserving of a new deal in all the NFL.

[HoosierCat]

While we're waiting, an interesting read from Harvey:

/>http://espn.go.com/blog/cincinnati-bengals/post/_/id/9463/bengals-andy-dalton-hue-jackson-decision-making-encouraging

The theme is "Dalton needs to make better decisions," and the example given is him throwing one away in an end zone drill versus trying to force a pass into coverage.

I don't have a problem with this. In fact, Andy seemed to do it a lot more earlier in his career. But I distinctly remember the opposite of this being peddled before last season. Then the theme was "Dalton needs to make plays" and the example was Big-Ben-esque scrambling to extend plays and make something happen versus just throwing the ball away.

And naturally, his interceptions shot up.

Is our Bengals learning? Yes, it appears so.

[HoosierCat]

And now the article you've all been waiting for (right?): PFF's detailed breakdown of Bengals QB Andy Dalton!

/>https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/07/28/qbs-in-focus-andy-dalton/

The Good:

• Above average on passes in 11-to-20-yard range (+6.2) and passes in the 21-to-30-yard range (+3.1).

• Graded at +6.4 on passes thrown outside the numbers to the left and +3.9 on passes thrown in between the numbers.

• Graded at +11.7 in a clean pocket.

• Led the league with a +4.7 grade against pressure from a traditional rush.

• Graded at +5.4 on 7-to-8-yard drop-backs and +3.7 on drop-backs of 9 or more yards.

• Fourth-highest grade on drop-backs lasting 2.1 to 2.5 seconds (+11.1).

• Graded at +12.4 on passes to slot wide receivers.

• Tied for league-best +8.5 grade on corner routes. Showed well on posts (+4.3) and go routes (+5.5).

The Bad:

• Graded at -3.1 on 3rd-and-long

• Third-worst grade on drop-backs that broke the pocket (-6.3).

• Graded at -5.6 on passes thrown in the 1-to-10-yard range and -9.8 on passes in the 5-to-10-yard range.

• Third-worst grade against blitz pressure (-9.5).

• Graded at -1.4 on 4-to-6-yard drop-backs.

• Struggled on drop-backs lasting two seconds or less (-6.6) and drop-backs lasting at least 3.6 seconds (-4.2).

• Graded at -1.8 on passes to tight ends, including -2.8 when lined up inline.

• Graded at -0.4 on slants and -1.8 on hitches.

Tendencies:

• Threw 15.7% of passes at least 20 yards in the air; seventh-highest in the league.

• Threw 55.2% of passes outside the numbers; fourth-highest in the league.

• Faced pressure only 25.2% of the time; second-lowest in the league.

• 39.8% of drop-backs lasted two seconds or less; second-highest in the league.

• 30.5% of drop-backs were in 4-to-6-yard range; fourth-highest in the league.

• Only 13.0% of drop-backs went at least nine yards; seventh-lowest in the league.

• Only 15.0% of attempts went to running backs; seventh-lowest in the league.

• Threw screens on 12.4% of drop-backs (seventh-highest) including 9.3% to wide receivers (seventh-highest).

• Threw crossing routes 5.1% of the time (third-lowest) and in routes 2.7% of the time (second-lowest).

[COB]

They forgot: "Chokes in big games." That would be the first stat I'd put in there. We'll see if Hue's new offense can take some of the stress off Dalton and let him play well in the spotlight.

My biggest complaint right now about Dalton - His contract negotiation is blocking the contract that I think the Bengals should really get done - Burfict's. I really think Burfict is one of the best players in the NFL, and to have a mediocre talent like Dalton holding up his deal bothers me.

[HoosierCat]

My biggest complaint right now about Dalton - His contract negotiation is blocking the contract that I think the Bengals should really get done - Burfict's.

I suppose it's possible but I really doubt that's the case. The Bengals have enough space to do both deals and I'm reasonably sure Katie can handle more than one negotiation at a time.

At a guess, I expect the hangup is the usual: the two sides can't agree on a number. The problem is 3-4 versus 4-3 LB. If you look at, say, the top 10 outside linebackers by average salary, all but one are 3-4 OLBs. The lone exception is Minnesota's Chad Greenway, whose deal averages $8.1 million. I'm sure the Bengals are painting that as an outlier, and want to get a deal done in the $4 million to $6 million range common to 4-3 OLBs.

I'm equally sure that Burfict's agent agrees wholeheartedly with your assessment of Burfict as one of the best players in the league and feels he should be paid more like one of those top 3-4 LBs, putting him in the $11 million - $13 million range.

That kind of gap, plus the fact that the Bengals can tender him as an RFA next year (and I guarantee they will use the top tender), seems to me the more likely culprit to have stalled talks.

[GapControl]

Some of those stats can be credits to the Jay Gruden offense. Without being long-winded, interdependent of any offensive scheme tendencies, the stats suggest Dalton has trouble creating. That fits the eyeball test, too. What didn't show up, like COB illuded to, big games, in other words: turnovers in big games. Also, inconsistant play which he is definitely guilty of, doesn't show in the stats, either. Seems either Dalton or Gruden too good at the short yardage pass game, as well.

[GapControl]

*NOT too good - I meant

[HoosierCat]

Some of those stats can be credits to the Jay Gruden offense. Without being long-winded, interdependent of any offensive scheme tendencies, the stats suggest Dalton has trouble creating. That fits the eyeball test, too. What didn't show up, like COB illuded to, big games, in other words: turnovers in big games. Also, inconsistant play which he is definitely guilty of, doesn't show in the stats, either.

Well, those inconsistencies and turnovers are stats, too, just not ones PFF's particular snapshot here is looking at. All this really says is that he was good at some things and not so good at others. But you're right, Dalton is not a "creator," he's a game manager, and that goes back to Harvey's piece. The Bengals tried to turn him into a "creator" last season and we saw the results.

In a way it reminds me of Bratkowski's "chunks" philosophy, which still bubbles up from Marvin's lips from time to time. The idea was that you couldn't dink-and-dunk your way down the field because the more plays you ran the more chances you had of bad things, like a turnover, happening. So you had to pick up yardage in "chunks." There's some truth to that but Bombs-Away-Brat took it to ludicrous levels.

Same deal with Dalton. Now the hot NFL theory is that your QB has to be a guy scrambling around "making plays" like Ben or RG3 or Kaepernick or (of course) Wilson. And as usual the Bengals took it to extremes, having Andy fling it around 50+ times a game and pushing him to make the miraculous routine. Then so many were shocked -- shocked! -- that trying to make him something he wasn't didn't work.

Bottom line, it sounds like Hue has some sense of proportion. I expect improvement.

Oh, and quit throwing this pass. It gets picked off for 6 every. Fricking. Time.

/>https://vine.co/v/M0L1BXWY2T7

[ArmyBengal]

Some of those stats can be credits to Gruden's offense as long as we are talking about both the good and bad stats.

There really isn't much else to say except to ask a simple question: Does anyone think it was a good plan to see Dalton throw 50+ passes in a game ??

Anyone ?? Bueller ?? Bueller ??

I'm not one of those fans that think you can give Dalton all the credit without considering what his faults are.

However, i'm not going to overlook what was questionable decision making on the part of Gruden either.

I'm REALLY looking forward to seeing what Hue can come up with.

If that's a more balanced attack, featuring a good dose of Gio and Hill, then I think we see more of good Andy.

If it's another 50+ passing attempts by Dalton, I expect bad things to happen.

[GapControl]

Noticed on the training camp footage today that Andy had another ball batted down. This one was by Dimanche I think coming out of a LB rush. That's another unfortunate downside to Andy's game. I'm sure he was amongst thee league leaders.

[Passepartout]

Just needs to win a playoff game. To prove he is worth that kind of money!

[ArmyBengal]

Just needs to win a playoff game. To prove he is worth that kind of money!

I keep thinking about Matt Ryan and the Falcons.

Here's a guy who most wouldn't mind having as the QB of their favorite team.

Between his rookie deal and the extension he signed last year he will make over 150 million.

Playoff record ?? 1-4 with his first win coming in his 4th attempt at it.

Dalton's rookie deal was worth 5.2 million.

The team views him as their franchise QB and has gone to the playoffs 3 straight seasons, which has never been done here in Cincinnati.

Regardless of what people think of him (and again I think he needs to improve) he's going to get paid big money.

Starting QB's in the NFL just have it that way.

With WR's getting 10+ million per year and CB's getting 12-15 million per year, it's silly to somehow think Dalton is going to get paid less.

I want to see that playoff win just as much as any other fan out there though and just one Super Bowl win before I die.

[Wraith]

I have been thinking that Matt Ryan is a pretty good comparison for Andy Dalton as well. On a whim I went to the NFL.Com Stat Lab and compared last years stats to the three guys who signed big contracts in 2013 (Ryan, Stafford, and Flacco).

I compared the four most important statistics for a QB (aside from wins and losses) IMHO for all four (TD/INT Ratio, Yards per Attempt, QB Rating, Completion %). Dalton compares very favorably in all 4 categories.

Ryan: 1.53 TD/INT Ratio, 6.94 Yards per Attempt, 89.6 QB Rating, 67.4% Completion %

Dalton: 1.65 TD/INT Ratio, 7.33 Yards per Attempt, 88.8 QB Rating, 61.9% Completion %

Flacco: .86 TD/INT Ratio, 6.37 Yards per Attempt, 73.1 QB Rating, 59.0% Completion %

Stafford: 1.53 TD/INT Ratio, 7.33 Yards per Attempt, 84.2 QB Rating, 58.5% Completion %

Another thing to consider of the above QBs is that Dalton is the youngest in league tenure (He is a few months older than Stafford in chronological age).

Dalton is a top ten QB based off Win % and almost every other meaningful statistical category and is getting better every year and deserves to be paid like one (I would rate P. Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Brady, Luck, Roethlisberger, Wilson, and Rivers ahead of him with only Luck and Wilson younger).

But he can't win the big games! is the refrain....ok let's look at the 5 games played against playoff teams in 2013 (including the awful playoff game).

Dalton's Stat line vs. playoff teams in 2013: 4 wins, 1 loss. 66.38% Completion %, 249 yards, 7 TDs, 5 Ints, and a 91.54 QB Rating....I think we will take that versus the top competition.

[HoosierCat]

Jason La Canfora's Bengals camp report is getting some attention today.

/>http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/writer/jason-la-canfora/24644586/bengals-training-camp-is-this-the-year-andy-dalton-gets-it-done-in-playoffs

The overall write-up is unremarkable in the extreme; it could have been written from the moon. However, this bit has blown up on teh tweeter:

Dalton, Bengals aren't close on deal

I do not anticipate the Bengals and Dalton getting a deal done before the season starts, and barring some dramatic swing in production one way or the other, if it doesn't get done in the summer then it's likely tabled until January.

There has been no progress and no movement, according to sources, and while owner Mike Brown has made mention of the desire to get something done, using Colin Kaepernick's deal as a barometer of sorts, the reality is the sides aren't close. The disconnect between regular-season and playoff stats is an issue, the lack of a real second tier of comparable quarterback contracts complicates things, and I continue to get the distinct impression that doing a short-term band-aid deal (a la Alex Smith), or a long-term deal that doesn't include much front-end coin are things Dalton's camp isn't really interested in doing.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if AJ Green, who had his fifth-year option for 2015 picked up, ends up getting his deal before Dalton, and the Bengals are trying to sign linebacker Vontaze Burfict before the season as well. There is always the specter of the franchise tag if need be, though that's not what you want to be doing at the quarterback position. Regardless, I figure Dalton plays out his rookie deal without a new deal barring an unforeseen reversal in course in negotiations.

Of course, this is the same guy whose sources told him last August that no deal would get done to extend Atkins, so take it for what you will. Honestly to me it sounds likes something (and this goes for the whole column) that was written up from news reports a month ago. Combined with his dumb tweet about Lamur yesterday, I have to wonder if he knows much about the team at all.

[princeton]

http://grantland.com/features/andy-dalton-cincinnati-bengals-pressure/

Article on how Andy is particularly bad, compared to other QBs, when facing 5 or more rushers or threat thereof. Basically states that his success is a product of having a top offensive line plus AJ Green.

it was particularly interesting that Andy faces this situation less than most QBs, except in the playoffs. So it's not like building up the running game is going to alter the frequency of seeing 5+ rushers. Andy simply needs to get better in these situations. I'm sure that the Bengals are aware of this and are looking for signs of improvement. If there's improvement, then the contract offer will be sweetened

OTOH, given the current roster: if one of the two tackles gets dinged, the floodgates will open and the season goes under.

[HoosierCat]

Basically states that his success is a product of having a top offensive line plus AJ Green.

Maybe. OTOH, anyone who actually watched the games last year knows that the o-line was hardly as good as its numbers suggest. In fact, I think a case could be made that it looked much better than it was thanks to Andy getting the ball out so quick.

And I remain unconvinced that the o-line isn't going to be as big, or even bigger, issue this season. But for now I'll turn things over to Harvey.

[ArmyBengal]

I simply think it's too hard to say what Dalton is or isn't based on one thing.

There are simply too many other contributing forces to place it all at his feet both good or bad.

People say he doesn't have a great deep ball, but his deep ball accuracy has been at the upper end of the league.

On deep ball passes, Dalton's WR's dropped 7 last year.

People say he sucks under pressure, but want to forget the challenges from last season with Cook's play and Zeitler's injury concerns.

The running game will certainly help, but my larger concern is still mainly focused on Bodine being named the starter.

I think Dalton has to improve his decision making and not let things get in his head, but he's far from the only problem.

He's not the only QB who throws picks, over or under throws, or makes bad decisions.

I want to see him take a major step forward there this season, but I want to see a more consistent effort from other aspects as well.

Penalties, drops, defensive lapses, and an improved running game as well.

I simply find it odd that people want to make it sound like Dalton is the only one having the concerns he has without thought to anything else.

I want to see them hoist the Lombardi trophy as much as the next fan, but remind me again how many of the 32 QB's do that at the end of the season ??

[princeton]

Basically states that his success is a product of having a top offensive line plus AJ Green.

Maybe. OTOH, anyone who actually watched the games last year knows that the o-line was hardly as good as its numbers suggest. In fact, I think a case could be made that it looked much better than it was thanks to Andy getting the ball out so quick.

yep, it's a team game. So I think that it's certainly possible that it was not the QB per se that had the problem. Could be a confused OL; could be the RB whiffing on his block; could be the design of the hot patterns; could be the WRs not getting quick separation.

but if it is the QB, then we just spent a lot of cash on someone who can't beat any team that rushes 5

[HoosierCat]

Tis true. Dalton has been part of the problem and Dalton has to be part of the solution.

I wonder if the new deal takes pressure off or puts more pressure on? From the fan POV it's obviously going to be the latter but I don't know where Dalton's head is on this thing. He seemed pretty good with the possibility of playing out the string. Stuff to watch.

[skyline]

Yeah, I'm resurrecting this.

Not to discuss whether or not Dalton is the "answer", but simply to discuss the dollars and cents in terms of the current free agency situation.

In hindsight, this is looking like exactly the right move. Can you imagine what we'd be looking at right now if Dalton were a free agent? He'd be the most sought-after QB on the market. His cost would be high, and if he were to move on to another team, where would that leave Cincy? A reunion with Ryan Fitzpatrick?

Gag me...

[HoosierCat]

My biggest complaint right now about Dalton - His contract negotiation is blocking the contract that I think the Bengals should really get done - Burfict's. I really think Burfict is one of the best players in the NFL, and to have a mediocre talent like Dalton holding up his deal bothers me.

To answer your question, sky, yes, the Dalton deal looks fine in hindsight. The bad deal, it turned out, was the one referenced above -- Burfict's. He took up $6 million in cap space last year for like 4 games and is set to count $5 million against the cap this year. And it's up in the air as to whether he even gets back on the field this year (or ever).

[ArmyBengal]

I was having this conversation the other day.

Take a look at the free agent QB's that were/are on the market this year.

Good God...

[skyline]

My biggest complaint right now about Dalton - His contract negotiation is blocking the contract that I think the Bengals should really get done - Burfict's. I really think Burfict is one of the best players in the NFL, and to have a mediocre talent like Dalton holding up his deal bothers me.

To answer your question, sky, yes, the Dalton deal looks fine in hindsight. The bad deal, it turned out, was the one referenced above -- Burfict's. He took up $6 million in cap space last year for like 4 games and is set to count $5 million against the cap this year. And it's up in the air as to whether he even gets back on the field this year (or ever).

At the time, the deal was great. And, it may still be. If they don't make it, he could have made some serious coin this offseason and we'd really be up a creek at the LB position.

Fingers crossed he comes back strong this year.