Bengals @ Chargers Game Thread

[TJJackson]

You win again.

He did?

Darn, I missed it

[Spor_tees]

Beyond ridiculous.

You claim it makes a difference and yet the teams that do it the best suck.

That's all the top 5 kickers at hitting 50+ yarders. Suck.

You win again.

Since win does a team's record have to do with the success of the kicker? Last time I checked kickers to don't normally play QB, RB, WR, TE, OL, DL, DE, LB, CB, or Safety. So you are saying a kickers success makes a team a loser? I just showed you Matt Bryant who plays for the 11-1 Falcons is 4-4 from 50 yards. 11-1 is a winning record right? How about this one for you, Shayne Graham plays for the 11-1 Texans and is 2-5 from 50+ yards, yet they keep trotting him on the field to try 50 yarders. Graham only tried a total of 16 50+ yard FGs with the Bengals in 7 years. So a one loss team continues to allow a guy that Bengal fans labeled a weak legged kicker, try 50+ yard FGs.

Maybe they are on to something...oh yeah, it's because it's the right move to make.

[Spor_tees]

Ok this is going to bug me until I do it. Here is a list of all the divisional leaders and their kickers from 50+.

NY Giants- Lawerence Tynes 1-3

Green Bay Packers- Mason Crosby 1-7

Atlanta Falcons- 4-4

San Fran 49ers- David Ackers 1-5

NE Patriots- Stephen Gostkowski 2-2

Baltimore Ravens- Justin Tucker 4-4

Houston Texans- Shayne Graham 2-5

Denver Broncos- Matt Prater 3-4

By looking at the extended playoff scene:

Chicago Bears- Robbie Gould 2-2

Seattle Seahawks- Steven Hauschka 1-4

Indianapolis Colts- Adam Vinatieri 3-6

Pittsburgh Steelers- Shaun Suisham 1-2

From looking at this we can see only 3 teams have tried the same amount of 50+ yards FGs as the Bengals (2). All the rest of the teams have tried more, and sometimes significantly more, than the Bengals. That includes former Bengals Shayne Graham (5 this year, which is almost a third of his entire tries while in Cincinnati- 16).

[HoosierCat]

I found a pretty cool 4th down calculator. I'm not really sure how it works but after putting in the stats, it says the right move is to kick the FG, not go for it.

4th Down Calculator

Actually, no it doesn't. When you plug in the situation the Bnegals were in Sunday, it says:

1. Going for it succeeds 36% of the time, a FG 50%. Again, no sure thing either way and not a gaping difference.

2. If they go for it and make it, they stand to score 3.6 additional points; failure costs them about 1.2 points. If they make the FG the net point gain is 2.4, if they fail the net loss is about 1.5 points. So kicking it actually gains them less and failure costs them slightly more (likely reflecting the additional 8 yards Earendil mentioned).

3. Whether they go for it or kick it, the impact on whether they win or lose is almost identical.

[Spor_tees]

I found a pretty cool 4th down calculator. I'm not really sure how it works but after putting in the stats, it says the right move is to kick the FG, not go for it.

4th Down Calculator

Actually, no it doesn't. When you plug in the situation the Bnegals were in Sunday, it says:

1. Going for it succeeds 36% of the time, a FG 50%. Again, no sure thing either way and not a gaping difference.

2. If they go for it and make it, they stand to score 3.6 additional points; failure costs them about 1.2 points. If they make the FG the net point gain is 2.4, if they fail the net loss is about 1.5 points. So kicking it actually gains them less and failure costs them slightly more (likely reflecting the additional 8 yards Earendil mentioned).

3. Whether they go for it or kick it, the impact on whether they win or lose is almost identical.

50% to 35% may sound like a close number, but how many attempts is that percentage based on? If based on 10 attempts, yes it is a close call, if based on 100 it might even still be close.

Well according to the data on ESPN.com there were 1010 FGs alone attempted last year. So if you pull that number out over even 5 years, that's 5050 attempts. I have no clue how many attempts were used to create that calculator, but if you put 5050 attempts into your percentages, it becomes 1818 fourth down attempts verses 2525 FG attempts. The difference will grow even larger depending how far back you go.

Romney lost the Popular vote to Obama 50.9% to 47.3%. Sounds like a close election right? Well the difference in actual votes was 4,645,468. Now that doesn't sound very close does it?

[Earendil]

Lighten up Francis. Is this really such a big deal that we have to argue about it for two pages?

[ArmyBengal]

Beyond ridiculous.

You claim it makes a difference and yet the teams that do it the best suck.

That's all the top 5 kickers at hitting 50+ yarders. Suck.

You win again.

Since win does a team's record have to do with the success of the kicker? Last time I checked kickers to don't normally play QB, RB, WR, TE, OL, DL, DE, LB, CB, or Safety. So you are saying a kickers success makes a team a loser? I just showed you Matt Bryant who plays for the 11-1 Falcons is 4-4 from 50 yards. 11-1 is a winning record right? How about this one for you, Shayne Graham plays for the 11-1 Texans and is 2-5 from 50+ yards, yet they keep trotting him on the field to try 50 yarders. Graham only tried a total of 16 50+ yard FGs with the Bengals in 7 years. So a one loss team continues to allow a guy that Bengal fans labeled a weak legged kicker, try 50+ yard FGs.

Maybe they are on to something...oh yeah, it's because it's the right move to make. ;)/>

You win remember. Jesus.

[Spor_tees]

Lighten up Francis. Is this really such a big deal that we have to argue about it for two pages?

Personally I don't even so how this can be argued. Statistics point that a FG attempt is the right move. Whether the percentages are 51% to 49% or 1% to 99% it doesn't matter, it says try for the three points...everyone is quick to point at the 2 point conversion chart and the percentages on it, yet when percentages come out saying to kick a FG, it gets ignored. Good teams put points on the board, they don't take huge gambles at midfield. If the ref doesn't throw a flag and give the Bengals a first down, I truly believe we would be having a different discussion right now.

[HoosierCat]

Personally I don't even so how this can be argued.

I don't either. The fourth down calculator you linked to shows that the Bengals made the right call. Case closed.

[Spor_tees]

Personally I don't even so how this can be argued.

I don't either. The fourth down calculator you linked to shows that the Bengals made the right call. Case closed.

You just said it was 50% success kicking the FG and 36% going for it. How does that show they made the right call? How is that identical? If your boss came to you and said, "Hoosier, we have to make cutbacks to keep all of the employees, so we are asking people if they can take a pay cut in order to do that. Will you take a 36% pay cut or a 50% pay cut? If you take the 50% it will really help the team, if you take 36% it will still help but there is no guarantee."

Which do you do? I mean after all, 36% and 50% are almost identical? :huh:/>/>

[HoosierCat]

Personally I don't even so how this can be argued.

I don't either. The fourth down calculator you linked to shows that the Bengals made the right call. Case closed.

You just said it was 50% success kicking the FG and 36% going for it. How does that show they made the right call? How is that identical?

Because the percentage of success is only one factor. That's the whole point of the sabermetrics the site you linked to applies. Yes, the chances of making the FG are better, about one in two versus one in three for going for it on 4th and 9. However, the benefits of making the FG are smaller than those of getting a 1st down, and the damage if the FG is missed is greater than if they don't pick up the first. Finally, the impact on win probability is about the same in both cases.

In short, going for it in that situation and failing was no worse than missing a FG and, but going for it and making it had a higher upside than a FG. In either case, it wasn't likely to have much effect on the final outcome. So there's no particular reason not to go ahead and go for it.

[Spor_tees]

Personally I don't even so how this can be argued.

I don't either. The fourth down calculator you linked to shows that the Bengals made the right call. Case closed.

You just said it was 50% success kicking the FG and 36% going for it. How does that show they made the right call? How is that identical?

Because the percentage of success is only one factor. That's the whole point of the sabermetrics the site you linked to applies. Yes, the chances of making the FG are better, about one in two versus one in three for going for it on 4th and 9. However, the benefits of making the FG are smaller than those of getting a 1st down, and the damage if the FG is missed is greater than if they don't pick up the first. Finally, the impact on win probability is about the same in both cases.

In short, going for it in that situation and failing was no worse than missing a FG and, but going for it and making it had a higher upside than a FG. In either case, it wasn't likely to have much effect on the final outcome. So there's no particular reason not to go ahead and go for it.

Yes because you totally skipped over many factors. You assume they are going to get a TD and get 7 points instead of 3. What if they turn the ball over, kick a shorter FG attempt, or go for it on 4th down again and don't make it. There are several factors beyond just that decision.

So you just admitted that a FG was the better call, but instead you didn't stay unbiased in your response. You quickly assumed that the Bengals would be successful and score a touchdown. Thus hind sight is getting in your way of analyzing the choice at hand. If you look at the play, the Bengals actually did fail on their 4th down play, the refs let them off the hook.

On a side note, I saw the 4th down conversion rate for 4th down and 1 or less yards to go. It was in the 90% range. It makes me wonder why more teams don't go for it more often.

[HoosierCat]

Yes because you totally skipped over many factors. You assume they are going to get a TD and get 7 points instead of 3. What if they turn the ball over, kick a shorter FG attempt, or go for it on 4th down again and don't make it. There are several factors beyond just that decision.

I didn't assume anything. All those factors are built into the calculator. That's why, for example, the EP isn't 7 for making the 1st. What the calculator is doing is working out all those probabilities for you based on past data.

[Spor_tees]

Yes because you totally skipped over many factors. You assume they are going to get a TD and get 7 points instead of 3. What if they turn the ball over, kick a shorter FG attempt, or go for it on 4th down again and don't make it. There are several factors beyond just that decision.

I didn't assume anything. All those factors are built into the calculator. That's why, for example, the EP isn't 7 for making the 1st. What the calculator is doing is working out all those probabilities for you based on past data.

Well I don't agree with making a first down and being on the 25+ yard line is going to have that great of a chance at making a TD.

At this point we should just agree to disagree. I think kicking the FG is the best move the stats say so, but obviously Marvin didn't and I think it has a lot to do with Marvin's confidence in Nugent. Nugent has a career best from 55. So I propose either keeping Nugent and getting a guy with a cannon for a leg, or keeping Nugent for 40-45 yards or less, and letting the other guy do kickoffs and long attempts. It wouldn't be the first time in the league for this. It doesn't happen often, but then again this team can not keep passing up scoring attempts because of the weakness of the kicker or distrust of the coach.

[COB]

If you polled the players on the Bengals, I suspect about 100% of them would say Marvin made the right call. It's not just stats. Something else to be considered is the effect it has on your team when you show your faith in them, when you're willing to gamble, when you are ultra aggressive. The players love that kind of stuff, they're constantly screaming go for it.

[Spor_tees]

If you polled the players on the Bengals, I suspect about 100% of them would say Marvin made the right call. It's not just stats. Something else to be considered is the effect it has on your team when you show your faith in them, when you're willing to gamble, when you are ultra aggressive. The players love that kind of stuff, they're constantly screaming go for it.

I came name one guy that that didn't love that stuff, Nugent. Right now Marvin is treating him like a red headed step child. If people are going to continue to say going for it on 4th and 9 in the first quarter, yet kicking FG on the Chargers 1 yard line on 4th and one, and having Huber punt on fourth and 4 on the Charges 49, and two other similar times. It makes no sense. The success rate for making a first down or scoring on 4th and 1 or shorter is like 90% and the Bengals have a high 78.6% for this season.

So I'll say it again, is this Marvin being aggressive, or is it Marvin s**tting on Nugent. I don't know how many stats, figures, and plays that are inconsistent with Marvin is doing.

[TJJackson]

Lighten up Francis. Is this really such a big deal that we have to argue about it for two pages?

/>http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0OnpkDWbeJs

[TJJackson]

C'mon guys, show the man a little respect......

/>http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nduf8_iCTOs

[skyline]

I'm waiting on that stat of conversion rate on 4th and 9. I'm guessing 25%.

I'm waiting for what you think about the best at kicking 50+ yard FG's playing for teams that are not in contention for the playoffs or just down right suck. That particular point really doesn't support what you are arguing about.

I showed you Veniteri who was the difference of the Patriots sitting at home or winning the Super Bowl.

Yeah, man. All those game-winning field goals that guy kicked in the 1st quarter on 4th and 9. Unreal.

But you're right. I'm sure Marvin has no confidence in the guy. And if you look at all the fake punts they've pulled this year, he must really hate Huber too. And sometimes they run the ball, but that's just because they don't have anyone worthwhile in the passing game. Except for when they pass it. But they only do that because Marvin doesn't have any faith in their running game. But, don't forget...the only reason the offense is on the field to begin with is because Marvin doesn't trust his defense, which royally sucks. They should get a new one.

After all, look at all the other teams in the league. Their coaches let them play defense all the time because that's the smart thing to do, really.

Statistically, I mean.

[Spor_tees]

The only thing I hate to say, and I already posted shows exactly how Marvin feels about the kicking game.

Shayne Graham who was a Bengal and many fans cursed and ranted that he didn't have great leg strength. Well he is playing on an 11-1 team and is 2-5 from 50+ yards. The Texans have enough confidence to try those long FGs. Yeah he is 2-5, but despite tha,t the team still has faith in him to at least let him try. Of course maybe they know the percentages too? He's a former Bengal who Marvin only let try 16 50+ FGs in 7 years. So don't tell me Marvin doesn't have something against kickers. Stats don't lie, and neither do actions.

If you take Nugent's 6 50+ yard attempts in 3 years, and add those to Graham, that's 22 attempts in 10 years. So don't tell me all these years Marvin has been going on fourth down or punting, isn't some kind of bias.

[skyline]

The only thing I hate to say, and I already posted shows exactly how Marvin feels about the kicking game.

Shayne Graham who was a Bengal and many fans cursed and ranted that he didn't have great leg strength. Well he is playing on an 11-1 team and is 2-5 from 50+ yards. The Texans have enough confidence to try those long FGs. Yeah he is 2-5, but despite tha,t the team still has faith in him to at least let him try. Of course maybe they know the percentages too? He's a former Bengal who Marvin only let try 16 50+ FGs in 7 years. So don't tell me Marvin doesn't have something against kickers. Stats don't lie, and neither do actions.

If you take Nugent's 6 50+ yard attempts in 3 years, and add those to Graham, that's 22 attempts in 10 years. So don't tell me all these years Marvin has been going on fourth down or punting, isn't some kind of bias.

I can't argue with your first sentence, because...well...I have no idea what you're talking about. So, literally. I can't argue with it.

The rest of your post gets a big , however. I love comparing kickers who play half their games at home in an INDOOR stadium to kickers who play outside in the elements. It makes sense.

You may also want to consider where the game clock was when each of those field goals was attempted. The place they were attempted. The weather conditions at the time. You know...context. The downside, of course, is that this would involve logic.

And let's say you DO manage to accidentally prove that Marvin favors being aggressive on 4th down over kicking long field goals...well, what's your point, exactly? If it's that mean old Marvin has some deep down hatred for kickers, then see my post above. It appears as if Marvin hates everyone.

Evil genius at work:

[Spor_tees]

The only thing I hate to say, and I already posted shows exactly how Marvin feels about the kicking game.

Shayne Graham who was a Bengal and many fans cursed and ranted that he didn't have great leg strength. Well he is playing on an 11-1 team and is 2-5 from 50+ yards. The Texans have enough confidence to try those long FGs. Yeah he is 2-5, but despite tha,t the team still has faith in him to at least let him try. Of course maybe they know the percentages too? He's a former Bengal who Marvin only let try 16 50+ FGs in 7 years. So don't tell me Marvin doesn't have something against kickers. Stats don't lie, and neither do actions.

If you take Nugent's 6 50+ yard attempts in 3 years, and add those to Graham, that's 22 attempts in 10 years. So don't tell me all these years Marvin has been going on fourth down or punting, isn't some kind of bias.

I can't argue with your first sentence, because...well...I have no idea what you're talking about. So, literally. I can't argue with it.

The rest of your post gets a big , however. I love comparing kickers who play half their games at home in an INDOOR stadium to kickers who play outside in the elements. It makes sense.

You may also want to consider where the game clock was when each of those field goals was attempted. The place they were attempted. The weather conditions at the time. You know...context. The downside, of course, is that this would involve logic.

And let's say you DO manage to accidentally prove that Marvin favors being aggressive on 4th down over kicking long field goals...well, what's your point, exactly? If it's that mean old Marvin has some deep down hatred for kickers, then see my post above. It appears as if Marvin hates everyone.

Evil genius at work:

Haha I'm totally confused. I don't know if you are arguing against me, for me, or being sarcastic.

Because of the reasons you stated, I used a 10 year model to show how often Marvin kicks 50+ yard FGs. If you want to say they don't kick very many because of the weather, Mason Crosby is 1-7 this year from 50+ yards. his worst year was only 3 tries, but the other years he had 4, 5, and 6 tries. So despite the bad weather in Green Bay, and his poor kicking, Green Bay keeps trotting him out there.

I'm trying to find a reason that Marvin is so different than other coaches in the league.

[Earendil]

My god, why are we still talking about this?

[skyline]

My god, why are we still talking about this?

Because it's crucial, hard-hitting, investigative stuff. After seeing the Vinatieri example, it would seem as if our Super Bowl chances hinge upon it!

Get with it, Earendil! :bengal:/>

[Spor_tees]

Points are points. Kickers and special teams area vital part of the game. I'm sorry if others don't see it. No, a first quarter FG isn't a last second winning FG but how many times is a game won or lost by 3 points or less? It's absolutely ridiculous that people can't see that. If you want to say that a first quarter FG isn't important, then missing a first quarter 52 yard FG isn't that big of a deal either. I mean giving the Chargers the ball at the 42 yard line wouldn't be a big deal. My God, it's as if you guys don't want this team to score points.

I'm out of here, it's obvious that some members on this board have no idea about the game of football. Going for it on 4th down and 9 instead of kicking a FG in the first quarter is a stupid move, and easily shows Marvins lack of confidence in his kicker. I've even shown a 10 year history of this. I showed the percentages that it was not the right move. I've even shown stats from the good teams in the NFL. Lastly I showed that a former Bengals kicker that Marvin rarely let kick 50+ yarders is on another team that is 11-1 that is letting him kick more longer FGs. If you can't understand the fundamentals of the game, there is no way to intelligently discuss games and situations.

Catch you later on the flip side, I may have argued a lot with HoF, but at least he had some knowledge of the game.