Rookie QB Options

[derekshank]

Didn't Ryan Fitzpatrick pass the 26 27 60% rule?He's a free agent why don't we go after him if were after smart guy with a noodle for a arm...

Yep, he did. And he's about the worst example of a player that did (John Lopez mentions him in the article, I think). That said, Fitz is a starter, and he played pretty well on a team completely devoid of talent. I also tend to think Fitz took a little while to get acclimated to the NFL coming from a spread offense in college.

And for the record, McElroy doesn't have a noodle arm. He just doesn't have a terribly strong arm and isn't terribly accurate throwing the deep ball. But that's why he'll be there in the 4th, and given what the Bengals will be trying to do with him, I think those weaknesses aren't impossible to overlook.

Worst case scenario is the guy ends up being a quality back-up, and a helpful clipboard holder for a less intelligent starter. Would we really complain about a super intelligent guy with amazing leadership skills being in the locker room?

[ArmyBengal]

I think it's to easy to poke holes in the games of any of these QB's and while on one side I can say I wouldn't mind a guy like McElroy later on, he won't be making plays with his feet and will allow teams to shorten the field knowing he's not very accurate going deep. Ponder in 2nd wouldn't really bother me either, he's a great WCO fit and can certainly keep drives going with his feet. Injury concerns bother me with him though. What, 2-3 surgeries in the past 2-3 seasons ??

As for most every QB in this draft, I have way more questions than answers and the concerns are a bit much.

They play in a spread offense.

They can't throw the deep ball.

They are a statue in the pocket.

They aren't very smart.

They aren't very athletic.

They aren't a leader.

They aren't very accurate.

I know it's hard finding a guy that fits all or even most of those things, but this draft class of QB's seem to feature guys that have less of those combined features. They have some that help us, but are equally coupled with some that won't work for us.

That being said, try real hard to find a vet to come in and take one of these guys later on or who you feel is the best fit for Gruden.

I still don't have one guy to hang my pimp hat on.

[derekshank]

That being said, try real hard to find a vet to come in and take one of these guys later on or who you feel is the best fit for Gruden.

I still don't have one guy to hang my pimp hat on.

I agree. I'm not in love with McElroy. I just like getting him in the 4th better than using a 2nd on most of the other guys. The weaknesses in his game are the ones I think least matter for a WCO. But that's just my opinion.

Mostly, I like that he's a potential solution that can be had much later than the majority of the other options... like Colt McCoy for the Browns.

[ArmyBengal]

I see it the same way Derek.

I can find reasons to take nearly any of these guys at any spot, but when it comes down to it, I don't like any of them.

By that I mean:

Part of me is intrigued at seeing what a Cam Newton with his size and athleticism could do for us in the first.

Part of me is intrigued with Ponder, his WCO experience and the fact he took snaps under center in the second.

Part of me is intrigued with a guy like Kaepernick, although raw, with his upside in the third.

Part of me is intrigued with Mallett, his size and cannon of an arm later on.

Part of me is intrigued with McElroy in the fourth or fifth.

All that intrigue and I can't find one that I love.

Oh well...

[BengalszoneBilly]

Sport Illustrated’s John Lopez wrote an article a little while back where he believed he had developed an accurate formula for determining what QBs will be successful in the NFL.

The formula involves only three criteria and he called it the 26-27-60 rule. 26 or better on the Wonderlic, 27 or more games played in college, and a completion percentage of 60% or better.

There is always exceptions to every rule. Ben Roethlisberger only got 25 on the Wonderlic test. Drew Brees? 28. Donovan McNabb? 14. David Klingler? 30. Jim Kelly? 15. Ryan Fitzpatrick? 38. Terry Bradshaw? 15. Philip Rivers? 30. Tim Hassellbeck? 23. Mike Vick? 20. Carson Palmer? 26. Craig Krenzel? 38. Vince Young? 15. Eli Manning? 39. Matt Lienert? 35. Matt Schaub? 31. Derek Anderson? 19. Charlie Frye? 38. Tony Romo? 37. Rex Grossman? 29. Kyle Boller? 27. J.P. Losman? 31. Matt Jones? 19. Tom Brady? 33. Kyle Orton? 26. Bruce Gradkowski? 19. Jason Campbell? 23.

Sometimes Lopez's formula works, sometimes it doesn't. As far as I'm concerned the Wonderlic test is as worthless as the combine results. Means little in the real world.

[membengal]

But the formula isn't the Wonderlic in isolation. It combines that measurement with two other measurements, each of which are pretty damn helpful.

[BengalszoneBilly]

But the formula isn't the Wonderlic in isolation. It combines that measurement with two other measurements, each of which are pretty damn helpful.

I agree, but a formula that doesn't work in it's entirety isn't much of a formula.

[ArmyBengal]

It's just a piece to the overall puzzle and while the test has it's own issues, it is a way to judge intelligence.

That being said, if said QB does in fact score well and does well in the other categories mentioned, it simply gives you a better overall picture.

That in and of itself doesn't guarantee anything. Then again, what does ??

It's about a comfort level with who the team may select I think.

[membengal]

But the formula isn't the Wonderlic in isolation. It combines that measurement with two other measurements, each of which are pretty damn helpful.

I agree, but a formula that doesn't work in it's entirety isn't much of a formula.

No, a formula without one of its parts ceases to be that formula and is a different one. That said, clearly high scores on the Wonderlic can't be primary, otherwise Stephen Hawking would be a really good NFL quarterback. But I am comfortable that good scores on that test are not something that is BAD to have either. I see no reason to throw it out like it is useless.

[BengalszoneBilly]

No, a formula without one of its parts ceases to be that formula and is a different one.

One that 99.9% of the time does nothing as it was intended to do. This "formula" was construed to be THE formula for picking how well a prospective NFL QB may fare in this league. I say if you kick one leg out from under it as I did, it falls from being anywhere near relevant.

[derekshank]

No, a formula without one of its parts ceases to be that formula and is a different one.

One that 99.9% of the time does nothing as it was intended to do. This "formula" was construed to be THE formula for picking how well a prospective NFL QB may fare in this league. I say if you kick one leg out from under it as I did, it falls from being anywhere near relevant.

The fact that it failed to be THE formula doesn't strip it of any merit whatsoever.

It's part of a larger picture. I'm sure there are guys on this forum that could score well on the Wonderlic. That doesn't make them NFL QBs. But when a guy scores poorly on it, there are warning signs there. And a handful of exceptions doesn't disprove the rule.

As for the other aspects of the 26-27-60 rule... I'd say Jake Locker stock from last year to present is a perfect example of how important "games started" can be. As for "completion percentage" I think it's a stat that speaks for itself.

[volcom69]

Ponder might make to the 3rd round, hes not even a top 5 QB in any of the draft guru top 5. Wouldnt be suprised if he went in the 2nd, but i think the bengals have too many holes to fill. How about getting stronger on the o-line, how about saftey help, there are too many holes to be filled. I still like the idea of a free agent QB, with a rookie to sit behind him, or LeFevour to learn behind him.

[BengalszoneBilly]

As for "completion percentage" I think it's a stat that speaks for itself.

Yes if he played in a top five division. No if he played anywhere else. It wasn't that many years ago a QB from Hawaii (Timmy Chang) had a plethora of NCAA records as far as yardage, completions, TD's, etc...

Anyway he wasn't even drafted, signed after the draft by Arizona and never got a regular season snap. He was Asian, so I'm sure his Wonderlic score was also quite high.

The formula is deeply flawed.

[cHaD711Johnson]

I'll tell you what. Here are the criteria I'm looking for in the next Bengals QB:

1) Good decision maker/Intelligent

2) Accurate passer

3) Durable

4) Calm in the face of pressure

There aren't many QBs that meet those qualifications in this draft... but one who does will likely be available in the 4th or 5th.

Greg McElroy.

I know he's not a great athlete, but if the Bengals are looking for a guy from a pro-style offense to manage the game in a run-heavy WC offense... he might be a hell of a bargain.

HAhhaha no.

[ArmyBengal]

So better to waste the #4 pick on Cam Newton, who doesn't come close to fitting what Gruden is trying to do and ignores other glaring holes this team needs to fill ?? I'm not a huge fan of McElroy, but he's very capable of running the offense Gruden is trying to install, is smart, and a proven winner. Couple that with the fact he can probably be had in the 4th or maybe even 5th and my question becomes, why not ??

Honestly though, I'm still of the mindset that I don't like any of these QB's and if FA was happening, a better option could be found.

I for one think Tavarius Jackson is another QB in need of a new team. Anyway, this is going to be odd going forward.

[DraftGeek]

I would take TJ Yates as high as the 6th round.

[ArmyBengal]

I would take TJ Yates as high as the 6th round.

You watch NFL Network to huh ??

Welcome !!!

[cHaD711Johnson]

Mallet is the only QB that I'm really interested in. Hopefully we can nab him in the 2nd round. Big time arm and WCO experience. Hopefully Miami or Seattle doesn't take him in the 1st round.

[Kazkal]

Mallet is the only QB that I'm really interested in. Hopefully we can nab him in the 2nd round. Big time arm and WCO experience. Hopefully Miami or Seattle doesn't take him in the 1st round.

WCO in college yet doesn't have the entangles of most Pro WCO QB's,Sorry but with our Offensive line Coach I just can support drafting a bronze statue.

[ArmyBengal]

I love everything about Mallett. Seriously.

All the positives about him are really exactly what you are looking for in your franchise QB.

Then there is this one particular negative about him that really doesn't sit well with me.

"Crumbles when pressured and make poor decisions."

I don't know, but the last time I looked we play the Steelers and Ravens twice a year and both of them run some of the most complex, confusing, and in your face pressure packages in the league. They are constantly in the top 5 defensively and I can't envision a QB that struggles when pressured amounting to much in stripes.

Again, I honestly have grown to like most things about Mallett, but that glaring negative really would not sit right with me should he be the pick. If anyone actually watched him play last year, which I did, you could see the same exact thing happening to him at that level. All that being said, if he's sitting there in the 2nd round, I think he will be the pick.

[volcom69]

No thanks to Mallet! If anything ill take Ponder in the second rd, if not not him then make some kind of a trade for Kolb, who is still young, and has a bright future. There is no QB in this draft that i can get excited about, but i understand why they must look at someone, because of this stupid lockout they can not look elsewhere!! This year all ready sucks, im tired of this Palmer crap im ready to move on, so whatever they do i hope its for the long term so we all can move on!! Screw you Carson!!!

[ArmyBengal]

Under NO circumstances should they make the attempt to trade UP, while giving up picks, to grab any of these QB's.

That would piss me straight the f*ck off.

[w8th]

I don't believe any of these QB's (other than Mallet - and he has other issues) are worthy of a high first round pick because they played in either a spread passing or spread option offense in college. Most of the guys drafted in the top 10 the past few years (Ryan, Stafford and Bradford come to mind) played in more of a pro style offense where they had a TE and lined up under center at least some of the time.

I heard Mike Mayock (the talking head I respect the most) say that if you draft Newton you've got to tailor your offense to what he can do (shotgun, rollouts and even some spread option runs). I'm not sure Marvin is willing to that since he's expressed his desire to keep a power running game.

Therefore I'd try to trade down for Mallet (or get him in the second if they think he lasts that long) or Dalton in the 3rd.

[Kazkal]

I don't believe any of these QB's (other than Mallet - and he has other issues) are worthy of a high first round pick because they played in either a spread passing or spread option offense in college. Most of the guys drafted in the top 10 the past few years (Ryan, Stafford and Bradford come to mind) played in more of a pro style offense where they had a TE and lined up under center at least some of the time.

I heard Mike Mayock (the talking head I respect the most) say that if you draft Newton you've got to tailor your offense to what he can do (shotgun, rollouts and even some spread option runs). I'm not sure Marvin is willing to that since he's expressed his desire to keep a power running game.

Therefore I'd try to trade down for Mallet (or get him in the second if they think he lasts that long) or Dalton in the 3rd.

Ummm Bradford came out of a spread ,Aaron Rodgers also came from a spread offense and most QB's these days will because that's how the college game is.

[COB]

Under NO circumstances should they make the attempt to trade UP, while giving up picks, to grab any of these QB's.

I never even considered this as a possibility. But now that you bring it up, it does indeed sound very Mike Brownish.

Trading up to get a quarterback of dubious future is crazy, doing it to enable your insane freeze-out strategy against Carson Palmer is beyond insane. It's self-defeating.