You know who believes in us?

[cincyhokie]

http://walterfootball.com/nflpicks2009_18early.php

New York Jets (9-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)

Line: Bengals by 2.5. Total: 34.5.

Walt's Projected Line: Bengals -1.

Saturday, 4:30 ET

The Game. Edge: Bengals.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

NFL Week 17 Recap: In Week 16, I whiffed on all of my high-unit selections, but inexplicably won most of my low-unit picks. On Sunday, the complete opposite happened. I cashed in with the Patriots +7.5 (5 Units) and Chiefs +10 (4 Units), but still managed to lose money overall (-$75) because I went 6-9-1. With so many teams simply just not showing up (Giants, Jaguars, Bengals, Cardinals, etc.) it just goes to show that winning in Week 17 can be really difficult.

Vegas Recap: Last week, I commented, "This is the eighth time in nine weeks that the sportsbooks have finished in the black, so you have to wonder if they'll give some of that money back for higher returns in the playoffs and the Super Bowl."

Go me. Vegas went just 4-6 with its lopsided plays, losing on the Bears, Falcons, Panthers, Patriots, Chiefs and Bengals. They cashed in with the Bills, Seahawks, Cowboys and Jets all covering. Maybe I should have taken my own advice.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Jets completely humiliated the Bengals with their ground attack Sunday night. Thomas Jones, Brad Smith and Shonn Greene helped the team compile 257 rushing yards on a 4.5 YPC. As Cris Collinsworth repeatedly pointed out, the Bengals were being pushed around and looked like they were playing on roller skates.

That will not happen again. Cincinnati was really porous against the run Sunday night for two reasons:

1. They didn't play hard, as they seemingly were content to battle these Jets in the first round of the playoffs.

2. Stud defensive tackle Domata Peko and left end Robert Geathers (who specializes against the run) were both out.

The Bengals have a great defense that dominates versus the rush. It's been a bit leaky lately because Peko has been out since Dec. 6, but he and Geathers are both expected back.

Between Weeks 5 and 12 (the final week Peko was in the lineup), the Bengals hadn't allowed a single opponent to gain more than 92 yards on the ground. The opposition's YPC in each of those contests: 4.6, 2.8, 2.9, 3.2, 4.4, 3.8 and 3.2. That's pretty damn good.

The Jets will not run all over Cincinnati this time, meaning Mark Sanchez will be asked to move the chains on his own. The Bengals have an excellent pass defense with two shutdown corners - Leon Hall did a great job on Braylon Edwards on Sunday night - so I can't see Sanchez having much success, especially considering the fact that he'll be playing in a road playoff game in a hostile environment.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Carson Palmer was just 1-of-11 for zero yards and an interception on Sunday night. The Bengals offense couldn't do anything, mustering only 72 total net yards and just five first downs. It was a disgraceful performance.

However, a few things happened here. First of all, Chad Ochocinco suffered a knee bruise in pre-game warmups. He's fine now. Second, Palmer was victimized by numerous drops. Third, Cedric Benson was out. And fourth, Cincinnati had a very vanilla offensive game plan, and consequently were just mauled over by an emotional Jets team.

I don't think Ochocinco will have much success on Darrelle Revis Island in this game either, but the big boost will be the return of Benson.

The Bengals are a great rushing team. They've run for a 4.0 YPC or better in six of their previous seven contests. They've rushed for 288 yards against the Ravens' stout run defense in two games this year. Benson has been one of the better backs in the league, while the Jets have faltered a bit versus solid ground attacks. New York hasn't been terrible against the run or anything, but we've seen the likes of the Bills, Dolphins, Saints and Jaguars expose them.

With Benson presumably running well, Palmer will have much more success converting third downs this week. I'll be shocked if his receivers don't make up for their poor effort.

RECAP: This is my favorite pick of the week. I absolutely love the Bengals.

Starting with the spread, we are getting incredible value. Cincinnati would be -6 here if it wasn't for that Sunday night blowout. People are overreacting to it and are giving the Jets way too much credit when the Bengals didn't even show up.

And that's a big factor. NBC continuously panned to Marvin Lewis on the sidelines, and he just stood there, seemingly soaking everything in and thinking about the perfect game plan he'd compose to beat these Jets next week. New York threw everything at Cincinnati, exposing crazy formations it had been saving for a must-win. Well, the Jets let everything out of the bag, giving Lewis and his coaching staff tons of great game film to study. The Jets, meanwhile, haven't really faced the real Bengals yet.

Lewis and defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer will throw a bunch of stuff at Mark Sanchez that he's never seen before. I really don't trust Sanchez in this spot. Playing a game in front of your fans is one thing; going on the road in a hostile environment and battling a tough Bengals defense is another.

By my count, Sanchez has played in four difficult road tilts this year. Let's look at all four, beginning with the most recent:

1. At Indianapolis. The Jets prevailed, but only because the Grinch Who Stole 19-0 pulled his starters. Sanchez was 12-of-19, 106 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs.

2. At New England. New York was debacled, 31-14. Sanchez was the reason the Jets lost. He went 8-of-21, 136 yards, 1 TD, 4 INTs.

3. At Miami. This was a must-win for the Dolphins in that Spanish Heritage Month game. Miami won, though Sanchez was solid here: 12-of-24, 172 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs.

4. At New Orleans. This one was pretty ugly for the San-chise in another loss: 14-of-27, 138 yards, 0 TDs, 3 INTs.

So, in total, Sanchez is 46-of-91, 552 yards, 2 TDs, 7 INTs in his four taxing away games. Do you really trust someone like that to win a road playoff game?

Oh, and here's one more extra tidbit for you. This isn't the first time the Jets will be battling the same team in Weeks 17 and 18. Back in 2001, they had a must-win game at Oakland. New York beat Jon Gruden's Raiders, 24-22.

The following week, the Jets traveled back to Oakland. Gruden, getting a good look at everything the Jets threw at him, designed the perfect game plan to beat them. The final score: Raiders 38, Jets 24.

PICK OF THE MONTH? I'm strongly considering eight units here. I'll keep you posted throughout the week.

The Psychology. Edge: Bengals.

The Jets exposed every trick they had in the bag against the Bengals. Marvin Lewis and Mike Zimmer have a big edge here because they were able to soak everything in.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Surprisingly equal action here. I thought the public would pound the Jets. Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 56% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Bengals are 5-15 ATS as a favorite since 2007.

Opening Line: Bengals -2.5.

Opening Total: 34.5.

Weather: Flurries, 14 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 18 NFL Pick: Bengals 24, Jets 13

Bengals -2.5 (5 Units)

Over 34.5 (0 Units)

[johnswahoo]

I like that break down. However I don't like the score. I feel that we could see a 17-13 Bengals win on Sunday. I think Dallas Wins, again and so does Green Bay over Arizona. My hope pick of the week is Baltimore. While I can't stand the Patriots if I were laying $ on the table and told to bet I would be taking NE

This is one of those games that the crowd needs to be hammered by noon and ready to rumble at 4:15. They are going to play a vital role in keeping this team focused on the job at hand. NYJ aren't the sixth best team in the AFC but they are there and sometimes a little luck can go a long way. I think back to Flacco last year and Roethlisberger in 05' these QB's gain success and don't feel they should reach success in the NFL as quickly as they did and so being in the playoffs they have already done better than what was expected. So they can play with little or no pressure on them vs a QB like Palmer who really needs to get a playoff win.

[cincyhokie]

I like that break down. However I don't like the score. I feel that we could see a 17-13 Bengals win on Sunday. I think Dallas Wins, again and so does Green Bay over Arizona. My hope pick of the week is Baltimore. While I can't stand the Patriots if I were laying $ on the table and told to bet I would be taking NE

This is one of those games that the crowd needs to be hammered by noon and ready to rumble at 4:15. They are going to play a vital role in keeping this team focused on the job at hand. NYJ aren't the sixth best team in the AFC but they are there and sometimes a little luck can go a long way. I think back to Flacco last year and Roethlisberger in 05' these QB's gain success and don't feel they should reach success in the NFL as quickly as they did and so being in the playoffs they have already done better than what was expected. So they can play with little or no pressure on them vs a QB like Palmer who really needs to get a playoff win.

Keys to Saturday's playoff game:

1. We're at home. Yes, it's going to be loud and the crowd will be ready to go.

2. Peko, Geathers, Crocker are back. The run D is at it's best strength since the Detroit game.

3. The O-line plays well, we have a huge advantage.

4. The team has it's first meaningful and difficult opponent at home since Baltimore. They'll be ready.

5. This team had it's pride stepped on. They'll come out physical.

Stop the run, force Sanchez to throw, and do a better job at protecting Palmer and we will win this game. It's that simple. The good news is we have the guys back on defense to do this. The question will be how the O-line will play. If Palmer gets time to throw and Benson gets holes to run and it will be a good day.

Bengals 16

Jets 10

[kingwilly]

/>http://walterfootball.com/nflpicks2009_18early.php

New York Jets (9-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)

Line: Bengals by 2.5. Total: 34.5.

Walt's Projected Line: Bengals -1.

Saturday, 4:30 ET

The Game. Edge: Bengals.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

NFL Week 17 Recap: In Week 16, I whiffed on all of my high-unit selections, but inexplicably won most of my low-unit picks. On Sunday, the complete opposite happened. I cashed in with the Patriots +7.5 (5 Units) and Chiefs +10 (4 Units), but still managed to lose money overall (-$75) because I went 6-9-1. With so many teams simply just not showing up (Giants, Jaguars, Bengals, Cardinals, etc.) it just goes to show that winning in Week 17 can be really difficult.

Vegas Recap: Last week, I commented, "This is the eighth time in nine weeks that the sportsbooks have finished in the black, so you have to wonder if they'll give some of that money back for higher returns in the playoffs and the Super Bowl."

Go me. Vegas went just 4-6 with its lopsided plays, losing on the Bears, Falcons, Panthers, Patriots, Chiefs and Bengals. They cashed in with the Bills, Seahawks, Cowboys and Jets all covering. Maybe I should have taken my own advice.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Jets completely humiliated the Bengals with their ground attack Sunday night. Thomas Jones, Brad Smith and Shonn Greene helped the team compile 257 rushing yards on a 4.5 YPC. As Cris Collinsworth repeatedly pointed out, the Bengals were being pushed around and looked like they were playing on roller skates.

That will not happen again. Cincinnati was really porous against the run Sunday night for two reasons:

1. They didn't play hard, as they seemingly were content to battle these Jets in the first round of the playoffs.

2. Stud defensive tackle Domata Peko and left end Robert Geathers (who specializes against the run) were both out.

The Bengals have a great defense that dominates versus the rush. It's been a bit leaky lately because Peko has been out since Dec. 6, but he and Geathers are both expected back.

Between Weeks 5 and 12 (the final week Peko was in the lineup), the Bengals hadn't allowed a single opponent to gain more than 92 yards on the ground. The opposition's YPC in each of those contests: 4.6, 2.8, 2.9, 3.2, 4.4, 3.8 and 3.2. That's pretty damn good.

The Jets will not run all over Cincinnati this time, meaning Mark Sanchez will be asked to move the chains on his own. The Bengals have an excellent pass defense with two shutdown corners - Leon Hall did a great job on Braylon Edwards on Sunday night - so I can't see Sanchez having much success, especially considering the fact that he'll be playing in a road playoff game in a hostile environment.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Carson Palmer was just 1-of-11 for zero yards and an interception on Sunday night. The Bengals offense couldn't do anything, mustering only 72 total net yards and just five first downs. It was a disgraceful performance.

However, a few things happened here. First of all, Chad Ochocinco suffered a knee bruise in pre-game warmups. He's fine now. Second, Palmer was victimized by numerous drops. Third, Cedric Benson was out. And fourth, Cincinnati had a very vanilla offensive game plan, and consequently were just mauled over by an emotional Jets team.

I don't think Ochocinco will have much success on Darrelle Revis Island in this game either, but the big boost will be the return of Benson.

The Bengals are a great rushing team. They've run for a 4.0 YPC or better in six of their previous seven contests. They've rushed for 288 yards against the Ravens' stout run defense in two games this year. Benson has been one of the better backs in the league, while the Jets have faltered a bit versus solid ground attacks. New York hasn't been terrible against the run or anything, but we've seen the likes of the Bills, Dolphins, Saints and Jaguars expose them.

With Benson presumably running well, Palmer will have much more success converting third downs this week. I'll be shocked if his receivers don't make up for their poor effort.

RECAP: This is my favorite pick of the week. I absolutely love the Bengals.

Starting with the spread, we are getting incredible value. Cincinnati would be -6 here if it wasn't for that Sunday night blowout. People are overreacting to it and are giving the Jets way too much credit when the Bengals didn't even show up.

And that's a big factor. NBC continuously panned to Marvin Lewis on the sidelines, and he just stood there, seemingly soaking everything in and thinking about the perfect game plan he'd compose to beat these Jets next week. New York threw everything at Cincinnati, exposing crazy formations it had been saving for a must-win. Well, the Jets let everything out of the bag, giving Lewis and his coaching staff tons of great game film to study. The Jets, meanwhile, haven't really faced the real Bengals yet.

Lewis and defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer will throw a bunch of stuff at Mark Sanchez that he's never seen before. I really don't trust Sanchez in this spot. Playing a game in front of your fans is one thing; going on the road in a hostile environment and battling a tough Bengals defense is another.

By my count, Sanchez has played in four difficult road tilts this year. Let's look at all four, beginning with the most recent:

1. At Indianapolis. The Jets prevailed, but only because the Grinch Who Stole 19-0 pulled his starters. Sanchez was 12-of-19, 106 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs.

2. At New England. New York was debacled, 31-14. Sanchez was the reason the Jets lost. He went 8-of-21, 136 yards, 1 TD, 4 INTs.

3. At Miami. This was a must-win for the Dolphins in that Spanish Heritage Month game. Miami won, though Sanchez was solid here: 12-of-24, 172 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs.

4. At New Orleans. This one was pretty ugly for the San-chise in another loss: 14-of-27, 138 yards, 0 TDs, 3 INTs.

So, in total, Sanchez is 46-of-91, 552 yards, 2 TDs, 7 INTs in his four taxing away games. Do you really trust someone like that to win a road playoff game?

Oh, and here's one more extra tidbit for you. This isn't the first time the Jets will be battling the same team in Weeks 17 and 18. Back in 2001, they had a must-win game at Oakland. New York beat Jon Gruden's Raiders, 24-22.

The following week, the Jets traveled back to Oakland. Gruden, getting a good look at everything the Jets threw at him, designed the perfect game plan to beat them. The final score: Raiders 38, Jets 24.

PICK OF THE MONTH? I'm strongly considering eight units here. I'll keep you posted throughout the week.

The Psychology. Edge: Bengals.

The Jets exposed every trick they had in the bag against the Bengals. Marvin Lewis and Mike Zimmer have a big edge here because they were able to soak everything in.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Surprisingly equal action here. I thought the public would pound the Jets. Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 56% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Bengals are 5-15 ATS as a favorite since 2007.

Opening Line: Bengals -2.5.

Opening Total: 34.5.

Weather: Flurries, 14 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 18 NFL Pick: Bengals 24, Jets 13

Bengals -2.5 (5 Units)

Over 34.5 (0 Units)

EZ-FRIGGIN-ACTLTY

there is a reason these guys exist.

I will now call it:

Bengals 21

JETS 20

Clearly, stop the run and the Jets lose on the road. It is a simple formula.

The JETS are the team that are LUCKIEST to even BE in the playoffs. I am very pleased the Bengals host them Saturday. Watching a defiant Rex Ryan blubber at the cameras post-game will make my year.

[HairOnFire]

I'll go with the unofficial official score of most Bengal games, 17-10.

Bengals.

[DC_Bengals_Fan]

I thought the bit about Geathers as run specialist was interesting. I remember when he came off the field on clear running downs.

[combatbengal]

Lucky or not, the Jets are in the playoffs playing us! Any team can be beaten on any day! We reduce the penalities, protect the ball, keep the Jet's O off the field, we win! 17-14 Bengals win!

[BlainThePain]

It will be a close game just due to the fact of how much running will take place. Both teams are run heavy and the game clock will fly by, so there is no way either offense will be on the field long enough to put up major points. It will come down to turnovers. We win the turnover battle we win, they win the turnover battle, we lose.

[Ickey44]

It will be a close game just due to the fact of how much running will take place. Both teams are run heavy and the game clock will fly by, so there is no way either offense will be on the field long enough to put up major points. It will come down to turnovers. We win the turnover battle we win, they win the turnover battle, we lose.

I think Scott takes one to the house this week. He almost did last week and he looks like he's fully recovered from his toe injury.

[HAPPYJAQ]

I watched the game again and was absolutely STUNNED at how often the Jets run to the right. It must be at a 75% clip or better, and I'm not an NFL scout or coach, obviously, so it has to jump off the tape to Marvin and Zim. It feels good to know that Jets let it all hang out last week to a team they have to play again this week.

The Bengals will be prepared for Faneca and Mangold trapping and will load the box to make Sanchez beat them. I'm expecting Coles' revenge to happen this week against his former team, as he has surprisingly been very good the last quarter of the season. Sanchez has proven all year that he's a turnover machine on the road, and he will not have heard an opposing crowd this loud in his football career.

At home, in a statement playoff game to the NFL, the Bengals win this one easy, 27-13.

[Stripes]

The best uniform in the league scores at least one more point than the worst uniform in the league to advance to the divisional round.

[Ickey44]

You really think the Jets have the worst uniforms? I think that one goes to the Steelers. Plain and unimaginative. And why do they have their logo on only one side of their helmet? Cutting costs?

[COB]

Have you guys forgotten about the Browns' unis? They really are distasteful. The Jets' are wonderful in comparison.

[Stripes]

I've always thought the Jets have the worst uniforms. The Browns can be pretty bad, but at least their dark ones present a decent color contrast. Olive green on white? Yeesh.

[ArmyBengal]

With the Jets making the attempts to take Chad out of the game and knowing they bring blitz more than any other team, I hope to see them get some screen passes going and a bigger game from (wait for it) JP Foschi. He's the 4th leading receiver yards wise and a 3rd of his catches go for first downs. He may be the "other" player that gets his shot in this game and makes a fairly big impact.

[HoosierCat]

Guess who else believes?

Florio.

/>http://www.nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/32778769

[NJ29]

Guess who else believes?

Florio.

/>http://www.nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/32778769

Wowzer, didn't see that coming.

[BengalPimp]

Since everybody is giving their predictions....i'm going a little higher with the Bengals scoring Bengals 27 Jets 17.

[walzav29]

23-10 Bengals, and yes I believe.

[ArmyBengal]

So instead of starting a new thread and keeping in line with the "who do you believe in" thought.

Who do you most believe in for this weekend's games ?? Meaning, if you had to pick one team to win this weekend who would it be ??

I think the Bengals are a pretty good bet to be honest and not for homerific reasons either.

Outside of that, I like the Pats, Packers, and Cowboys. If I had to rank in order who I thought was most guaranteed to win:

Cowboys

Patriots

Bengals

Packers

[mgi]

Bills Simmons picked us 20 - 6. http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/100108

BENGALS (-2.5) over Jets

Key Player: I don't know what kind of quarterback Mark Sanchez will be five years from now. But if I had to LOSE a 2009 playoff game and could pick any starting QB, and JaMarcus Russell was trapped under a rock, I'd think long and hard about the Sanchize. Football Outsiders had him ranked 38th out of 46 QBs; generous considering he was in the cushiest situation of any bad QB. Four starters finished with lower QB ratings than Sanchez's 63.0 (Matt Stafford, Josh Freeman, Delhomme and Russell), but none was protected like the Jets protected Sanchez. They ran the ball a league-high 607 times (Carolina was second at 525) and threw the ball a league-low 393 times (Seattle was second at 441). Of their 280 first downs, only 131 came from passing (third-lowest total in the league). Most rookies improve as the season goes along, but Sanchez seemed to get worse as the weather turned.

First half: 1,443 yards, 67.6 QB rating, 8 TDs, 10 INTs.

Second half (missed a game): 1,001 yards, 56.6 QB rating, 4 TDs, 10 INTs.

Starting with Week 12, the Jets moved into "Screw it, we're living and dying with our rushing game" mode and refused to take any chances with Sanchez, even though opponents were stacking the line and doing everything but bringing out signs that said "THROW IT, YOU WUSS!" to taunt them. Against Carolina: 17 passes, 39 runs. Against Buffalo: 17 passes, 43 runs. The telling game was Week 15 against Atlanta, when the Falcons stuffed the run and Sanchez HAD to throw and the Jets mustered only seven points. He just couldn't make them pay. I see a repeat in Cincinnati. The Jets want to make it through this game without Sanchez having to make any plays … but the Bengals know this.

Possible Playoff Doppelganger: Colts-Chiefs from 2006. Everyone thought Larry Johnson was going to run all over the Colts, but the Colts went into that game thinking, "If Trent Green is gonna beat us, fine, but we're not losing this game because Larry Johnson ran all over us." He didn't. And hey, it's not like the Bengals are the '99 Rams, but if both teams are relatively similar, I'll take the experienced QB over the rookie QB every time.

Possible Tragic Figure Not Named Sanchez: Brad Smith.

Hero You Might Not Have Expected: Brad Smith. He's the hit-or-miss guy of this game. I'm guessing "miss."

Relevant E-mail (courtesy of Paul in Haledon, N.J.): "When we're getting killed by Cincy on Saturday, I'm going to think back to the moment I knew we were screwed -- Fireman Ed making a cameo on 'Inside The NFL.'"

This Game As a "Jersey Shore" Character: The Sammi Sweetheart/Ronnie relationship. Every time you see them on the screen, you're hoping they show someone else. I'm just not sure which team is Sammi and which team is Ronnie.

Theories in Play: Cincy qualifies for both "Nobody Believed in Us!" and Paul Crewe Memorial "We've come too far to stop now" status. It's a tight-knit team that suffered two tragedies during the season; you can almost imagine Marvin Lewis' eyes welling up with tears during the pregame speech. I like home teams playing with emotion in the playoffs. They have one quality game in them before San Diego obliterates them in Round 2.

The Pick: Bengals 20, Jets 6.