The AFC playoff picture

[jjakq27]

At this point the Bengals sit in the second spot in the AFC with a 8-3 behind Indy at 11-0.

Standings: http://www.nfl.com/s...G&split=Overall

Tie-breaking procedures: http://www.nfl.com/s...akingprocedures

The Chargers are third (8-3) and New England is fourth at (7-3) with tonight's game vs. New Orleans still to be played. If NE wins tonight all three would be tied at 8-3 but I think the Bengals and Chargers get the nod with both being 6-3 in the conference and the Pats only being 5-3. Based on what I believe is the next tie-breaker (common opponents) I have the Bengals being 4-2 vs. the Chargers at 3-3.

Obviously the game in San Diego in three weeks is probably a must win for the Bengals. It might make the difference between playing here in January or having to fly out to SD to play a game.

Here are the remaining games of the teams of interest:

2. Cincinnati (8-3)

12/6 Detroit (2-9)

12/13 @ Minnesota (10-1)

12/20 @ San Diego (8-3)

12/27 Kansas City (3-8)

1/3/10 @ NY Jets (5-6) (last game played at Giants Stadium)

3. San Diego (8-3)

12/6 @ Cleveland (1-10)

12/13 @ Dallas (8-3)

12/20 Cincinnati (8-3)

12/25 @ Tennessee (5-6)

1/3/10 Washington (3-8)

4. New England (7-3)

11/30 New Orleans (10-0)

12/6 @ Miami (5-6)

12/13 Carolina (4-7)

12/20 @ Buffalo (4-7)

12/27 Jacksonville (6-5)

1/3/10 @ Houston (5-6)

5. Denver (7-4)

12/6 @ Kansas City (3-8)

12/13 @ Indy (11-0)

12/20 Oakland (3-8)

12/27 @ Philadelphia (7-4)

1/3/10 Kansas City (3-8)

6. Jacksonville (6-5)

12/6 Houston (5-6)

12/13 Miami (5-6)

12/20 Indy (11-0)

12/27 @ New England (7-3)

1/3/10 @ Cleveland (1-10)

7. Baltimore (6-5)

12/6 @ Green Bay (7-4)

12/13 Detroit (2-9)

12/20 Chicago (4-7)

12/27 @ Pittsburgh (6-5)

1/3/10 @ Oakland (3-8)

8. Pittsburgh (6-5)

12/6 Oakland (3-8)

12/10 @ Cleveland (1-10)

12/20 Green Bay (7-4)

12/27 Baltimore (6-5)

1/3/10 @ Miami (5-6)

9 thru 12 (5-6)

9. Miami

10. Tennessee

11. NY Jets

12. Houston

[JoePong]

I have a feeling the Oakland game is going to end up killing us when it comes to playoff seeding. We can't lose any more games to AFC teams if we want a bye or any home field playoff games.

Unfortunately, that means beating the Chargers in San Diego...something that will be very difficult unless our offense dramatically improves in the next week.

[TJJackson]

So Joe - does that mean we need to end the Carson Palmer experiment?

[walzav29]

There have been 5 games where the Bengals were given ZERO chance. Not by Bengal fans, but by "Experts"

@Green Bay

Pitt (both)

Balt (both)

Defense beats offense. Remember when the Bengals were a run 1st team? Who always beat us? Pittsburgh. They ran and stopped the run. Same rules apply.

[buck3y3d]

There have been 5 games where the Bengals were given ZERO chance. Not by Bengal fans, but by "Experts"

@Green Bay

Pitt (both)

Balt (both)

Defense beats offense. Remember when the Bengals were a run 1st team? Who always beat us? Pittsburgh. They ran and stopped the run. Same rules apply.

I agree with your thoughts on the run game, but the red zone play calling is getting worse. The touchdown rate in the red zone is still good, but it was great at one time. Brat needs to switch it up near the goal line. Our drives stall all the time and it's mainly due to letting the other team load the box on 1st and 2nd near the goaline. Then we have to run a congested shotgun formation.

I'd also like to see Brat air it out once per half or so. Palmer has a cannon, why not use it. If he overthrows the receiver by five yards to be safe, so be it.

[ChadJohnson-85]

If the season ended today.....

/>http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d8144d9ac&template=no-right-rail-with-comments&confirm=true

[PhunkE1]

I really only see the Pats losing one more game. We can only afford to lose one more game and it really has to be against Minn. That would give us the same record as NE (Reg season and Conf.) I think we would have the same record when it comes to like opponents.

Does anyone know all the tie-breakers and the order? That would be very helpful to this thread.

[PhunkE1]

Nevermind, the tie-breakers are listed on untamed's link.

Head-to-head, if applicable.

Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.

Strength of victory.

Strength of schedule.

Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.

Best net points in conference games.

Best net points in all games.

Best net touchdowns in all games.

Coin toss.

[derekshank]

Right now I'm only concerned about the magic number. The Bengals need 3 wins to clinch the division... and that's if the Steelers or Ravens win out. So, even if the Bengals do manage to lose the 2nd seed, it's very possible they'll have the division locked up before week 17... and could use that NYJ game as a bye week. A luxury the Wild Card team getting ready to visit almost certainly wouldn't have. These are the benefits of clinching early. So, get it done Bengals!

[HairOnFire]

Having the #2 seed would be great, but I'm not thinking about it much.

Win the division.

[gregstephens]

So Joe - does that mean we need to end the Carson Palmer experiment?

Hey, at least he (inexplicably) stopped beating his 'the offense can't score more than 17 points a game' drum.

Which, coincidently, I have a theory upon. I think the Bengals know about Joe's 17 point thread/rant and have made conscience efforts to win games while not exceeding 17 offensive points. The result? A scary defense and a scary (for other reasons) offense.

Nice work, OchoPongo.

[derekshank]

Having the #2 seed would be great, but I'm not thinking about it much.

Win the division.

Yep. And I'm certainly aware of the fact that if New England loses tonight and the Bengals win @SD, their chances look really good. But I'm much more concerned about clinching the division and crossing the next bridge when we get there.

[BengalByTheBay]

It's funny how paradigms shift. Now the concern is about homefield advantage and playoff scenarios when a mere 11 weeks ago the world was ending after losing to the Broncos. Put me in the camp of being happy as hell that we swept the division (man, that feels good to say) and hoping to get to 10 ..... and then 11 wins. A lot can still happen between now and the end of the season, starting with what will hopefully be a very good game tonight. Hope the saints can gut one out and wouldn't it be sweet if Belichick punted on 4th & 2 late in the game and the saints came down and scored to win it?

[HoosierCat]

So Joe - does that mean we need to end the Carson Palmer experiment?

You bet! And moreover, the Chargers are 1-2 and averaging just 21 points on offense in AFC games against non-division opponents. So it's clearly time to end the Phillip Rivers experiment as well.

[Ickey44]

So Joe - does that mean we need to end the Carson Palmer experiment?

You bet! And moreover, the Chargers are 1-2 and averaging just 21 points on offense in AFC games against non-division opponents. So it's clearly time to end the Phillip Rivers experiment as well.

Man. What would we know without Joe?

[derekshank]

So Joe - does that mean we need to end the Carson Palmer experiment?

You bet! And moreover, the Chargers are 1-2 and averaging just 21 points on offense in AFC games against non-division opponents. So it's clearly time to end the Phillip Rivers experiment as well.

So, given the Bengals and Chargers inability to score against non-division AFC opponents, what are the chances the game @SD ends in a 0-0 tie? 100%? More?

But back on topic... if the Bengals win @ SD, the #2 seed looks a lot more likely. They can afford a loss @Minn, but that's it. But I say, why not 13-3?

[bwillycuse]

The Oak loss made it so we have to beat SD, Jets, Kc, Det to get the home field. Unless SD falls apart.

So 13-3, 12-4(11-5 if we are extremely lucky) = Home field and a bye.

10-6,11-5= Will have to play Steelers or Denver in Wildcard game, no bye.

9-7, 8-8 = Heads will roll. At least the money paid for post season tix can be returned.

[derekshank]

The San Diego game is the most important game for the #2 seed. If Cincy loses to San Diego, they lose their tie breaker both with SD (and the tie breaker with NE if they lose to any AFC team).

I don't see New England losing any more games with their schedule. They will probably finish 12-4. The only game Cincy can afford to lose if they want the bye week is @Minnesota. Because I just don't see 11-5 getting it done.

[HairOnFire]

So, after watching last nights game....who still thinks the Bengals can't beat New England?

[gregstephens]

So, after watching last nights game....who still thinks the Bengals can't beat New England?

I think the Bengals can beat any team in the AFC--as long as they play like they did against Pittsburgh. That Oakland game, fortunately, was an aberration, not the norm. Fix the penalties and hold the rock, offense. The 'D', or Z-fense as HOF has coined them, has your back.

[kingwilly]

So, after watching last nights game....who still thinks the Bengals can't beat New England?

I think the Bengals can beat any team in the AFC--as long as they play like they did against Pittsburgh. That Oakland game, fortunately, was an aberration, not the norm. Fix the penalties and hold the rock, offense. The 'D', or Z-fense as HOF has coined them, has your back.

I think NE is still more dangerous than Indy, though both are imminently beatable.

NE is weak against the run. Weak. Benson and LJ will run them over. NE generally plays the pass better than they did against NO but NO exposed some matchups you can get is you have 4 very fast WR and a good running game. If we played against NE, I would like to see several plays where Scott is split wide and is targeted for a mis-match.

Indy has more heat in their pass rush, so the quicker passes would be key. Thier CB have been playing WAY over their head and were very exposed by NE. NE has really no run game, so I think Indy can be ground into dust with Benson and LJ, and doses of Scott and Leonard.

Both can be beaten. The Bengals defense has elite corners, who I feel would force Manning and Brady to target their TE's and 3rd/4th WR's. In a game against them, Trent, Crocker and Nduke would need to play lights out to prevent a game like Houston.

[COB]

So Joe - does that mean we need to end the Carson Palmer experiment?

You bet! And moreover, the Chargers are 1-2 and averaging just 21 points on offense in AFC games against non-division opponents. So it's clearly time to end the Phillip Rivers experiment as well.

I went to church on Sunday, then that night the ball and chain still wouldn't give it up. It's clearly time to end the Jesus experiment.

[ArmyBengal]

So Joe - does that mean we need to end the Carson Palmer experiment?

You bet! And moreover, the Chargers are 1-2 and averaging just 21 points on offense in AFC games against non-division opponents. So it's clearly time to end the Phillip Rivers experiment as well.

I went to church on Sunday, then that night the ball and chain still wouldn't give it up. It's clearly time to end the Jesus experiment.

Holy sh*t, I laughed at that one. You know, in a "I know I'm already going to hell" sort of way...

[semiotter]

So Joe - does that mean we need to end the Carson Palmer experiment?

LoL.

[semiotter]

So Joe - does that mean we need to end the Carson Palmer experiment?

Hey, at least he (inexplicably) stopped beating his 'the offense can't score more than 17 points a game' drum.

Which, coincidently, I have a theory upon. I think the Bengals know about Joe's 17 point thread/rant and have made conscience efforts to win games while not exceeding 17 offensive points. The result? A scary defense and a scary (for other reasons) offense.

Nice work, OchoPongo.

OchoPongo!!! Omg!! LoL