Interesting Fanene Note

[agreen_112]

I honestly think Rivers is overrated. I watched him quite a bit at USC (west coast TV) and he was anonymous for large stretches of the season. In all, it is a pretty weak LB class overall.

I'd prefer to grab LB's somewhere with our r2/3/4 picks, and target guys like Wheeler inside and Ezra Butler (sleeper) on the outside.

What about that Samoan MLB from USC, I believe he was a Senior last season... In what round is he projected to be selected? Anyone else like him? From what I've seen, he looks like a young Shaun Merriman!

**edit** Rey Maualuga. He's a senior this season... Oh well.

[TJJackson]

Rey Maualuga is staying at USC and will be a senior this year

[chrishcovga]

Yeah, that would be an absolute joke! We trade a top 10 overall pick and don't even get a single 1st round pick in return? I would be pissed off beyond belief if the bengals were stupid enough to do that. Luckily, they are not.

I wouldn't be bothered at all by trading completely out of the first this year. All the blue-chip types at positions the Bengals need look like they'll be off the board by 9, and this is a deep draft at DT, DE, LB and along the o-line. The caliber of player we could get at 9 isn't going to be much different than what we could snag high in the second.

Hey you guys, know I'm the trade down king, but this Year especially should be some real gems in the second round.

- I've always believed that you get the true core players of your team in the second and third rounds, so having as many picks there is always best.

Not sure what Cincy' will do in round 1, but the more and more of the Auburn games I keep watching, Pat Sims looks like the real deal. I would be very satisfied if we came out of this draft with Sims or "Red" Bryant. Great size, very good athleticism. And both are bigger than Dorsey and Ellis.

[DesperateDerelict]

THREE ISSUES

I. The issue of "Bear" vs. "Bull" (trade down or up) seems to revolve around the fundamental questions:

1) Are we 1 (or 2) elite players away from the division favorite and possible Super Bowl team? -or-

2) Are we multiple players away from being a perrenial contender?

Please put me firmly in camp 2.

II. The issue of "what's our greatest need" appears to be: improving our rush defense and pass rush. Two ways to accomplish this:

1) Improve our DL (Jacksonville, Giants)

2) Improve our LB's and scheme to confuse opponents (Steelers, Cowboys, Chargers)

I'd love to do both, but we won't be able to do that if we give up picks. Again, I'm firmly in camp 2 - IMHO, it's more effective to rely on a scheme than on winning a majority of the individual battles.

III. The third issue is: how to maximize our 2008 draft to improve our team.

This issue is the least clear-cut. I think everybody wants to gain "Impact" players in the 1st and 2nd rounds, excellent role players or depth in the middle rounds, and future contributors in the later rounds. Also, most everybody wants to aggressively address the defensive issues first. This year's players that can improve our defense are numerous and varied, and include:

Top Ten

Glenn Dorsey (DT) - Warren Sapp (or Dewayne Robertson?)

Sedrick Ellis (DT) - similar to Tommy Harris - will need support staff

1st Round

Derrick Harvey (DE) - Osi Umenyiori (or Justin Smith?)

Quentin Groves (OLB) - DeMarcus Ware (in 3-4) or Lance Briggs (in 4-3)

Phillip Merling (DE) - Patrick Kerney (or Travis Laboy?)

Kieth Rivers (OLB) - Kieth Bullock clone

Kentwan Balmer (DT) - Cory Redding or Grady Jackson?

2nd - 3rd Round

P.Sims (DT) - could be another Kevin Williams

Lawrence Jackson - slower Mark Anderson

Dan Connor - Paul Posluszny or Kirk Morrison

Dre Moore - looks like Broderick Bunkley

Calais Campbell - either Julius Peppers or total bust

Ty Laws - limited upside (Jay Ratliff)

Cliff Avril - another Shaun Phillips

Aytala Rubin - this guy will be another Pat Williams

Linebackers - Mayo, Henderson, Lofton, Wheeler, Crable, Highsmith, Goff

DLinemen - Pressley, Harrison, Bryant, Fluellen

I truly believe we have a better shot at fixing the "D" by adding additional picks then by putting all of our eggs in 1 or 2 baskets. Add the fact that we need depth in the defensive backfield to replace Madieu, find a future starter at WR (Jordy Nelson in the 3rd?), improve our running game (OL & RB), and improve our special teams, and the conclusion is apparent:

If Ellis and Dorsey are both gone ==> TRADE DOWN !!!

[Walrus]

Yeah, that would be an absolute joke! We trade a top 10 overall pick and don't even get a single 1st round pick in return? I would be pissed off beyond belief if the bengals were stupid enough to do that. Luckily, they are not.

I wouldn't be bothered at all by trading completely out of the first this year. All the blue-chip types at positions the Bengals need look like they'll be off the board by 9, and this is a deep draft at DT, DE, LB and along the o-line. The caliber of player we could get at 9 isn't going to be much different than what we could snag high in the second.

Agreed. Also, you have to think about the contract you will sign this player to -- top 10 draft picks are becoming exponentially more expensive every year and as a GM, you really have to consider if the player you're picking is worth the financial committment. I'm not sure on the numbers (and salaries vary by position too, of course) but I believe contracts drop drastically when you get out of the top of the first round. This is the only link I can find at the moment to support my claim. Anyways, in all likelihood the Bengals would still pay 3 2nd round picks significantly less than 1 #9 pick. Something to consider...

[COB]

I truly believe we have a better shot at fixing the "D" by adding additional picks then by putting all of our eggs in 1 or 2 baskets.

I am in the other camp. We already have lots of ok and pretty good guys. We need a terrorist who can go to war in the trenches. John Q Secondrounder is not that guy. Fanene is not that guy. That guy is right in front of us. All we have to do is go get him. If we trade down for a bunch of 2nd and 3rd rounders, we'll be getting the ball run down our throats again all next year. Guys who can clog the middle are rare, and so far we just haven't one in a later round. I'm talking recent history, not Tim Krumrie. Come to think of it, we went to the Super Bowl with Timmy. Go get Ellis or Dorsey!

[HairOnFire]

For all of the talk about what this team needs and who might or might not fall I think the #9 pick will mostly be determined by a ranking of best player available. Granted, need is often a major factor and I think you give it more and more weight in the middle rounds of any draft. But this team suddenly has needs at positions that only a year ago were considered strengths, and as a result can justify a pick at numerous positions.

As for trading out of the #9 slot, the idea of trading down appeals to me more, but it may be impossible to find another team willing to move up in this draft. By comparison, I don't like the idea of trading up very much but I have no doubt the Bengals could find several higher slotted teams willing to rob them of draft picks were the Bengals willing to pay the price.

In the end I think they'll stay put and take the BPA.

[DesperateDerelict]

The one guy I could see 1. slipping to the 9 spot and 2. who the Bengals woudn't take, is Matt Ryan. I have this pipe dream that Atlanta doesn't like him enough to take him at 3 (they take either Jake Long or Dorsey, depending on who the Rams let through), but does like him enough to package their three second round picks (3rd, 6th and 17th in the second, I believe) for the 9 and our 4th and 5th round selections. Then we sweep up something like DT Pat Sims, WR Early Doucet, LB Dan Connor and either a wideout or corner who's a return guy in round 2. Like I said, pipe dream...

I'd be dancin in the streets

How about:

35) Quentin Groves (OLB) / Reggie Smith (S) / Dan Connor (LB)

38) Jerod Mayo (LB) / Earl Bennett (WR) / Kentwan Balmer (DT)

46) Pat Sims (DT) / Curtis Lofton (LB) / Early Doucet (WR)

48) Jordy Nelson (WR) / Aytaba Rubin (NT) / Cliff Avril (DE-OLB)

3rd round could truly be BPA - perhaps OL, RB, or double up a previous position.

Now THAT's an "IMPACT" Draft !!!

[HoosierCat]

I'd be dancin in the streets

Me too, but we'd have to watch out because Pong would be outside too, hitting random objects with a baseball bat.

But like I said, it's a pipe dream.

My best guess for our choices at 9 is:

Clady or Rogers-Cromartie (depends on who the Falcons, Chiefs and Ravens pick)

Harvey

Rivers

Mendenhall

I don't see any of those names attracting much trade-up interest.

[Spor_tees]

I'd be dancin in the streets

Me too, but we'd have to watch out because Pong would be outside too, hitting random objects with a baseball bat.

But like I said, it's a pipe dream.

My best guess for our choices at 9 is:

Clady or Rogers-Cromartie (depends on who the Falcons, Chiefs and Ravens pick)

Harvey

Rivers

Mendenhall

I don't see any of those names attracting much trade-up interest.

On NFL network the said the Bengals are looking heavily at Mendenhall and would be one of the few teams to have private one on one time with him

[bryce40]

THREE ISSUES

I. The issue of "Bear" vs. "Bull" (trade down or up) seems to revolve around the fundamental questions:

1) Are we 1 (or 2) elite players away from the division favorite and possible Super Bowl team? -or-

2) Are we multiple players away from being a perrenial contender?

Please put me firmly in camp 2.

II. The issue of "what's our greatest need" appears to be: improving our rush defense and pass rush. Two ways to accomplish this:

1) Improve our DL (Jacksonville, Giants)

2) Improve our LB's and scheme to confuse opponents (Steelers, Cowboys, Chargers)

I'd love to do both, but we won't be able to do that if we give up picks. Again, I'm firmly in camp 2 - IMHO, it's more effective to rely on a scheme than on winning a majority of the individual battles.

III. The third issue is: how to maximize our 2008 draft to improve our team.

This issue is the least clear-cut. I think everybody wants to gain "Impact" players in the 1st and 2nd rounds, excellent role players or depth in the middle rounds, and future contributors in the later rounds. Also, most everybody wants to aggressively address the defensive issues first. This year's players that can improve our defense are numerous and varied, and include:

Top Ten

Glenn Dorsey (DT) - Warren Sapp (or Dewayne Robertson?)

Sedrick Ellis (DT) - similar to Tommy Harris - will need support staff

1st Round

Derrick Harvey (DE) - Osi Umenyiori (or Justin Smith?)

Quentin Groves (OLB) - DeMarcus Ware (in 3-4) or Lance Briggs (in 4-3)

Phillip Merling (DE) - Patrick Kerney (or Travis Laboy?)

Kieth Rivers (OLB) - Kieth Bullock clone

Kentwan Balmer (DT) - Cory Redding or Grady Jackson?

2nd - 3rd Round

P.Sims (DT) - could be another Kevin Williams

Lawrence Jackson - slower Mark Anderson

Dan Connor - Paul Posluszny or Kirk Morrison

Dre Moore - looks like Broderick Bunkley

Calais Campbell - either Julius Peppers or total bust

Ty Laws - limited upside (Jay Ratliff)

Cliff Avril - another Shaun Phillips

Aytala Rubin - this guy will be another Pat Williams

Linebackers - Mayo, Henderson, Lofton, Wheeler, Crable, Highsmith, Goff

DLinemen - Pressley, Harrison, Bryant, Fluellen

I truly believe we have a better shot at fixing the "D" by adding additional picks then by putting all of our eggs in 1 or 2 baskets. Add the fact that we need depth in the defensive backfield to replace Madieu, find a future starter at WR (Jordy Nelson in the 3rd?), improve our running game (OL & RB), and improve our special teams, and the conclusion is apparent:

If Ellis and Dorsey are both gone ==> TRADE DOWN !!!

I believe we are multiple players away as well but don't like the idea of trading completely out of the first round plus I could see us easily getting K.C.'s pick with our first and a third (maybe with a fifth thrown in). But I believe with even giving up those 2 picks we still have something like 9-10 picks left in this draft.

[HoosierCat]

On NFL network the said the Bengals are looking heavily at Mendenhall and would be one of the few teams to have private one on one time with him

Wouldn't surprise me in the last. OTOH while I was updating the mock draft database today I came across a new mock from the guys at realgmfootball.com; the guy their claims we'll take Rivers and that "someone who would know" told him that all the talk out of Cincy about an RB is smoke. So who knows...

[HairOnFire]

Well, if you can't trust the fine folks at realgmfootball.com then who can you trust?

[HoosierCat]

Well, if you can't trust the fine folks at realgmfootball.com then who can you trust?

Like I said, who knows? But of all the players likely to be there at 9, Mendenhall is probably the best choice to publicly salivate over if you're hoping to drum up a trade partner. The number of teams reportedly interested in him has only increased since Stewart's toe owie. And with McFadden going in the top 5 or 6 selections...well, say you're the Detroit Lions, and you just let a bust named Kevin Jones go, and you picked up an extra 3rd in a trade with Cleveland, which combined with your original 3rd is more than enough to move from 15 to 9...

[DesperateDerelict]

But of all the players likely to be there at 9, Mendenhall is probably the best choice to publicly salivate over if you're hoping to drum up a trade partner.

Why spend the extra capital to jump into slot #9, knowing New Orleans, Buffalo, Denver, and Carolina are unlikely to pull the trigger on a RB?

I think that's why Marvin is showing excitement over Mendenhall - trying to drum up traffic. The rule of thumb is: Don't believe any coach or scout during March or April.

More likely coveted players available as trade bait at #9 are Matt Ryan (BPA) or a top corner (DRC, McKelvin, Jenkins). The Saints are desperate for a top CB, and the next 3 could definitely go that way.

With so little available at WLB, Rivers could also entice somebody (Denver?) into jumping over the Saints & Bills. Everybody is pointing to Adrian Petersen being a positive effect for McFadden & Mendenhall, but not mentioning Patrick Willis helping out Rivers & Connors.

When all is said and done, I still think one of the top 2 DT's will be there at #9. It's almost too bad, 'cause I think Dre Moore and Aytaba Rubin will both have great NFL careers, and will be there after pick #50.

[Sandwedge]

But of all the players likely to be there at 9, Mendenhall is probably the best choice to publicly salivate over if you're hoping to drum up a trade partner.

Why spend the extra capital to jump into slot #9, knowing New Orleans, Buffalo, Denver, and Carolina are unlikely to pull the trigger on a RB?

I think that's why Marvin is showing excitement over Mendenhall - trying to drum up traffic. The rule of thumb is: Don't believe any coach or scout during March or April.

More likely coveted players available as trade bait at #9 are Matt Ryan (BPA) or a top corner (DRC, McKelvin, Jenkins). The Saints are desperate for a top CB, and the next 3 could definitely go that way.

With so little available at WLB, Rivers could also entice somebody (Denver?) into jumping over the Saints & Bills. Everybody is pointing to Adrian Petersen being a positive effect for McFadden & Mendenhall, but not mentioning Patrick Willis helping out Rivers & Connors.

When all is said and done, I still think one of the top 2 DT's will be there at #9. It's almost too bad, 'cause I think Dre Moore and Aytaba Rubin will both have great NFL careers, and will be there after pick #50.

I think 1 will be there also, probably Ellis.... I wouldn't give up the notion just because we take Ellis we won't take Moore or Rubin ..... I almost expect a couple of DTs will be gotten this draft...

[HoosierCat]

But of all the players likely to be there at 9, Mendenhall is probably the best choice to publicly salivate over if you're hoping to drum up a trade partner.

Why spend the extra capital to jump into slot #9, knowing New Orleans, Buffalo, Denver, and Carolina are unlikely to pull the trigger on a RB?

The point of drooling over Mendenhall is to convince a team like Detroit that you will take him. BPA and all. But since RB isn't exactly a screaming need, maybe we'd be willing to give up the slot...for a price. It isn't a case of jumping over NO, Buff, etc.

[HairOnFire]

I think that's why Marvin is showing excitement over Mendenhall - trying to drum up traffic. The rule of thumb is: Don't believe any coach or scout during March or April.

It'll take more than a blurb posted at realgmfootball.com to make me think the interest the Bengals are showing in Mendenhall is just a smokescreen. I'm betting the interest in him is real. That's not to say I think he'll be the pick...just that he belongs on the Bengals short list of players they'd consider drafting depending on how things fall to them.

With so little available at WLB, Rivers could also entice somebody (Denver?) into jumping over the Saints & Bills.

For weeks you've been writing about Rivers being a reach at #9, but now you think a team might trade up to get him?

[HoosierCat]

It'll take more than a blurb posted at realgmfootball.com to make me think the interest the Bengals are showing in Mendenhall is just a smokescreen. I'm betting the interest in him is real. That's not to say I think he'll be the pick...just that he belongs on the Bengals short list of players they'd consider drafting depending on how things fall to them.

I agree. But I also believe that -- again assuming that all the defensive blue-chippers are gone -- it wouldn't be all that difficult for a team that wanted Mendenhall to get them to trade out of the spot.

[sparky151]

I honestly think Rivers is overrated. I watched him quite a bit at USC (west coast TV) and he was anonymous for large stretches of the season. In all, it is a pretty weak LB class overall.

I'd prefer to grab LB's somewhere with our r2/3/4 picks, and target guys like Wheeler inside and Ezra Butler (sleeper) on the outside.

Could be. All I'm saying is that, assuming all the blue-chip O and D linemen are gone, I wouldn't be upset if they took Rivers. I also wouldn't be upset if they passed on him.

I guess I just think 9 is a substantial reach. He would be a fine r2 pick, as he is not chopped liver by any means.

Anywhere in the top 10, I think you've got to get a starter (QB might be excluded) who can make an impact.

Someone above us will reach for a WR or RB, or even a QB. I think we will be grabbing someone who "dropped" (Ellis, Dorsey, Gholston, Clady) vs. taking someone who is a "reach" (Rivers, Merling, Harvey)

Yep. Rivers would be a reach at 9. IMO Connor is a better LB than Rivers anyway, Rivers just had better players around him.

I'm in the camp of we should trade up to get one of the DTs. If we can't make that work and one doesn't fall to us, we should try to trade down. If we can't make a deal and both DTs are gone, then Mendenhall would be the pick.

This team is several players away from contending for a superbowl but not far away from contending for the division title. We need a good RB, better playcalling, and good health and attitude on offense. On defense, we need a DT who requires doubleteaming, and good health among the LBs. We have good CBs already and if Thurman returns and Brooks stays healthy, LB should be ok. I expect Odom to generate more pass rush than Smith, and Geathers would benefit from other threats on the line.

[HairOnFire]

I agree. But I also believe that -- again assuming that all the defensive blue-chippers are gone -- it wouldn't be all that difficult for a team that wanted Mendenhall to get them to trade out of the spot.

Yeah, I get that. But IMHO the exact same things that make trading down a smart option for the Bengals make it unlikely any team will want to trade up into their spot. Simply put, my gut tells me that some of you are imagining trading partners who won't exist.

That said, I've seen drafts like this one before and as odd as it might sound I've watched them shake out to both extremes, where there's almost no trade activity at all due to so many players being almost equally ranked OR a stunning amount of trades being made by teams who lock onto one player above all others who may be comparably ranked.

[HairOnFire]

Yep. Rivers would be a reach at 9. IMO Connor is a better LB than Rivers anyway, Rivers just had better players around him.

Pfffffttttttt.

If the above were true it would be a solid bet that NFL teams would come to the same conclusion and Conner would be drafted before Rivers.

So which of you wants to make that bet?

[skyline]

I agree. But I also believe that -- again assuming that all the defensive blue-chippers are gone -- it wouldn't be all that difficult for a team that wanted Mendenhall to get them to trade out of the spot.

Yeah, I get that. But IMHO the exact same things that make trading down a smart option for the Bengals make it unlikely any team will want to trade up into their spot. Simply put, my gut tells me that some of you are imagining trading partners who won't exist.

That said, I've seen drafts like this one before and as odd as it might sound I've watched them shake out to both extremes, where there's almost no trade activity at all due to so many players being almost equally ranked OR a stunning amount of trades being made by teams who lock onto one player above all others who may be comparably ranked.

Do any of you guys think the shortened early rounds (or is it only the first?) will have a major impact on the # of deals we see done on draft day?

[sparky151]

Yep. Rivers would be a reach at 9. IMO Connor is a better LB than Rivers anyway, Rivers just had better players around him.

Pfffffttttttt.

If the above were true it would be a solid bet that NFL teams would come to the same conclusion and Conner would be drafted before Rivers.

So which of you wants to make that bet?

It depends on team needs of course. Rivers can only play WLB while Connor can possibly play all 3 positions, though probably not as well at WLB as Rivers. I wouldn't be surprised to see Rivers go first but also not shocked if Connor goes first. I doubt either goes in the first 9 picks. This draft doesn't have any elite linebackers.

[DesperateDerelict]

I think that's why Marvin is showing excitement over Mendenhall - trying to drum up traffic. The rule of thumb is: Don't believe any coach or scout during March or April.

It'll take more than a blurb posted at realgmfootball.com to make me think the interest the Bengals are showing in Mendenhall is just a smokescreen. I'm betting the interest in him is real. That's not to say I think he'll be the pick...just that he belongs on the Bengals short list of players they'd consider drafting depending on how things fall to them .

I certainly hope the current FO pays more attention to history than you do. The ONLY 4 Running Backs drafted in round 1 in Bengal's history: Archie Griffin ('76), Charles Alexander ('79), Ki-Jana Carter ('95), Chris Perry ('04) ==> not exactly a ringing endorsement for 1st round backs.

With so little available at WLB, Rivers could also entice somebody (Denver?) into jumping over the Saints & Bills.

For weeks you've been writing about Rivers being a reach at #9, but now you think a team might trade up to get him?

You say to-MA-to, I say to-MAH-to. I didn't say Rivers sucked, I just don't think he's an impact player, much less an 'elite' prospect. After my top 6 (Gholston, Dorsey, C.Long, Ellis, J.Long, Q.Groves), IMHO you can throw the next 40 - 50 players in a hat and draft any one you like. I'm just hoping NFL GM's don't feel the same way.

Anyway, think positive Hair. Anything's possible. I don't think the Bengals need a standard conventional LB, but a DE/OLB "elephant" to rush the passer. - Satanhan, on the other hand, has to replace Gold, and has had enough success in the draft to give him an aura of infallibility.

You want trade partners?

Arizona or Detroit for Mendenhall (w/ a 3rd & a 4th)

Denver or Carolina or Chicago for Clady (w/ a 3rd)

Minnesota or Washington for Harvey (w/ a 2nd)

Atlanta for Ryan (1st in 2009 & 2 2nds) or da Bears or da Tuna

Arizona, Houston, Dallas, Green Bay, or NY Giants for McKelvin or DRC or Jenkins

Mikey & company have 10 minutes to pick or pull the trigger on a trade.