fattyjay Posted March 13, 2008 Report Share Posted March 13, 2008 Say what you want about the defensive needs, this guy is who they should take if Ellis and Dorsey are gone. Those of you who think Gholston may still be around need to realize he might have worked his way up to the #1 pick. After you read the link think about how bad the Bengals 3rd down conversion rate was, and then think about how a much improved running game would fix that problem.Jonathan Stewart Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJJackson Posted March 13, 2008 Report Share Posted March 13, 2008 If Gholston, Ellis, and Dorsey are all gone, our pick should be one of (in no particular order): Chris Long, Jake Long, Keith Rivers, Ryan Clady, or the ever popular Trade DownWe need defense first. We need to strengthen the offensive line (which was not opening many holes for the runnign back, no matter how big/fast/strong he might be) and ergo running back is a much lower priority need. I see a tiny chance we'd take one as early as r3.comp, but I think r5 or lower is far more likelyStewart is a "(very) nice to have" rather than a "need to have" player Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fattyjay Posted March 13, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 13, 2008 If Gholston, Ellis, and Dorsey are all gone, our pick should be one of (in no particular order): Chris Long, Jake Long, Keith Rivers, Ryan Clady, or the ever popular Trade DownWe need defense first. We need to strengthen the offensive line (which was not opening many holes for the runnign back, no matter how big/fast/strong he might be) and ergo running back is a much lower priority need. I see a tiny chance we'd take one as early as r3.comp, but I think r5 or lower is far more likelyStewart is a "(very) nice to have" rather than a "need to have" playerThe problem is that everyone on your list will be gone except Rivers and I don't think the Bengals are considering a LB in the 1st Rd. Also, the problem with wanting to trade down is that you need a trade partner. At this point I don't see anyone who would want to trade up to the 9 spot. If anything I could see the Bengals trade up to #7 (N.E.) to get Ellis or Dorsey if they are still available. I just think that the player with the best chance to improve this team this year is Stewart. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJJackson Posted March 13, 2008 Report Share Posted March 13, 2008 If Gholston, Ellis, and Dorsey are all gone, our pick should be one of (in no particular order): Chris Long, Jake Long, Keith Rivers, Ryan Clady, or the ever popular Trade DownWe need defense first. We need to strengthen the offensive line (which was not opening many holes for the runnign back, no matter how big/fast/strong he might be) and ergo running back is a much lower priority need. I see a tiny chance we'd take one as early as r3.comp, but I think r5 or lower is far more likelyStewart is a "(very) nice to have" rather than a "need to have" playerThe problem is that everyone on your list will be gone except Rivers and I don't think the Bengals are considering a LB in the 1st Rd. Also, the problem with wanting to trade down is that you need a trade partner. At this point I don't see anyone who would want to trade up to the 9 spot. If anything I could see the Bengals trade up to #7 (N.E.) to get Ellis or Dorsey if they are still available. I just think that the player with the best chance to improve this team this year is Stewart.I agree, to trade down you need a willing trade partner. I listed it only to be complete on the optionsIn your scenario, Rivers and Stewart are still available at 9, and none of the others I listed are available, and let's assume there is no trading partner. Still no problem here - you take Rivers without hesitation and plan on a DT in round 2, maybe Trevor Laws. Running back in this scenario (even if all three are available) is IMHO still not in consideration with Rivers (or any of the other 6 players) remain available. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierCat Posted March 13, 2008 Report Share Posted March 13, 2008 I agree, to trade down you need a willing trade partner. I listed it only to be complete on the optionsI still think a better option is, trade up. If C. Long, Dorsey, Gholsten or Ellis is there at 7, give up your third to swap places with NE and take him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJJackson Posted March 13, 2008 Report Share Posted March 13, 2008 I'm always hesitant to recommend tradeups because of the cost - one tends to look at what additional player(s) one could have had for the picks lost in a tradeup - and then of course there's the whole cap impact.I'm not opposed to it in the right situation - and after the 5 or 6th picks or made, it might be pretty clear that this is such a time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fattyjay Posted March 13, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 13, 2008 If Gholston, Ellis, and Dorsey are all gone, our pick should be one of (in no particular order): Chris Long, Jake Long, Keith Rivers, Ryan Clady, or the ever popular Trade DownWe need defense first. We need to strengthen the offensive line (which was not opening many holes for the runnign back, no matter how big/fast/strong he might be) and ergo running back is a much lower priority need. I see a tiny chance we'd take one as early as r3.comp, but I think r5 or lower is far more likelyStewart is a "(very) nice to have" rather than a "need to have" playerThe problem is that everyone on your list will be gone except Rivers and I don't think the Bengals are considering a LB in the 1st Rd. Also, the problem with wanting to trade down is that you need a trade partner. At this point I don't see anyone who would want to trade up to the 9 spot. If anything I could see the Bengals trade up to #7 (N.E.) to get Ellis or Dorsey if they are still available. I just think that the player with the best chance to improve this team this year is Stewart.I agree, to trade down you need a willing trade partner. I listed it only to be complete on the optionsIn your scenario, Rivers and Stewart are still available at 9, and none of the others I listed are available, and let's assume there is no trading partner. Still no problem here - you take Rivers without hesitation and plan on a DT in round 2, maybe Trevor Laws. Running back in this scenario (even if all three are available) is IMHO still not in consideration with Rivers (or any of the other 6 players) remain available.Agree to disagree. (Ron Burgundy's voice dubbed in of course) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesperateDerelict Posted March 13, 2008 Report Share Posted March 13, 2008 Official pimpage of Jonathan StewartAny back that can run a 4.4 at 235 lbs, bench 28 reps (better than alot of Linemen), and pick up 115 yds against Michigan on 15 carries, is okay with me.I'm always hesitant to recommend tradeups because of the cost - one tends to look at what additional player(s) one could have had for the picks lost in a tradeup - and then of course there's the whole cap impact.I'm not opposed to it in the right situation - and after the 5 or 6th picks or made, it might be pretty clear that this is such a timeDamn! I hope alot of other teams are thinking like this, 'cause I want at least 1, and preferably 2 or 3, additional picks in the top 100. If we are trading up, lets trade next years picks, where there is supposed to be very little talent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJJackson Posted March 13, 2008 Report Share Posted March 13, 2008 Agree to disagree. (Ron Burgundy's voice dubbed in of course) :-) coolI too want a stronger running game - I just think the problem is the OL and not the backs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wraith Posted March 13, 2008 Report Share Posted March 13, 2008 If Gholston, C. Long, J. Long, Ellis, Dorsey, Clady are all gone and Ryan and McFadden are the two remaining selections in the top 8, then I go with Phillip Merling, Kentwan Balmer, and Kenny Phillips in that order before I even start thinking about an offensive skill player. If Ryan or McFadden slip to 9 I trade down with Dallas or someone in the late teens and pickup an extra first day pick and target one of those players or maybe Groves from Auburn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesperateDerelict Posted March 13, 2008 Report Share Posted March 13, 2008 If Gholston, C. Long, J. Long, Ellis, Dorsey, Clady are all gone and Ryan and McFadden are the two remaining selections in the top 8, then ....If Ryan or McFadden slip to 9 I trade down with Dallas or someone in the late teens and pickup an extra first day pick and target one of those players or maybe Groves from Auburn. Give Wraith a cigar . . . or the key to the Bengals War Room !!! I predict Groves to be as impactful a player as Gholston or Howie's kid !!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJJackson Posted March 13, 2008 Report Share Posted March 13, 2008 No interest in Rivers, Wraith? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wraith Posted March 13, 2008 Report Share Posted March 13, 2008 I wonder about his effort levels, about the impact of Ray Maualuga on his production ala Bobby Carpenter/AJ Hawk. He is the third best LBer on his team behind Maualuga and Cushing. I worry about his physicallity I think he is going to have a career much like Brian Simmons and I think he is a VERY similar player and the Bengals do not need that type of guy right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wraith Posted March 13, 2008 Report Share Posted March 13, 2008 Actually the more I think about it Keith Rivers IS Brian Simmons.1) He Plays on a team where he is surrounded by other playmakers. Brandon Spoon, Kiv Mays, Greg Ellis, Vonnie Holliday, Ebenezer Ekuban for Simmons all high draft picks. Maualuga, Cushing, Ellis, Lawrence Jackson, Kevin Ellison for Rivers.2) Extremely Athletic3) Has issues over-running plays.4) Not very physical at the point of attacks and tends to try and blow people up rather than use proper "wrap-up" technique.5) Smart, Team Leader.6) Good in coverageBoth guys fit all 6 categories. I think Rivers will make an excellent pro but the Bengals need something more than just a "very good" player, we had that with Justin Smith. We need a difference maker at #9 and barring that we have a more glaring need in the front four than at LBer. Ellis, Dorsey, Long, Gholston in no particular order and we will get the player we have been looking for not just a guy. I think that Merling, Groves, Phillips have more upside than Rivers and Balmer fits a bigger need so therefore Rivers won't be on my draft board because he would be slotted for me as a second round pick and he won't be there at that position. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierCat Posted March 14, 2008 Report Share Posted March 14, 2008 Bad news for fattyjay...STEWART GETS SURGERYPosted by Mike Florio on March 13, 2008, 8:05 p.m.In a draft that has plenty of tailbacks, one of them has a question mark sprouting from his shoes.According to Adam Schefter of NFL Network, Oregon running back Jonathan Strewart had surgery on Wednesday to repair a fracture in his foot.As a result, Stewart will be out for four months, and will miss his Pro Day workout. The goal in having the surgery now was to ensure that Stewart would be ready for the start of training camp.Stewart had the injury in February, when he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.45 seconds at the Scouting Combine. He also churned out a 36-inch vertical jump.The situation has drawn comparisons to Vikings running back Adrian Peterson, whose broken collarbone arguably prompted a mini-slide to No. 7 in the 2007 draft. But most running backs don’t use their collarbones to, you know, run. Really, how can anyone justify a first-day pick (which is now only rounds one and two) on a guy with a surgically-repaired foot? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COB Posted March 14, 2008 Report Share Posted March 14, 2008 I still think a better option is, trade up. If C. Long, Dorsey, Gholsten or Ellis is there at 7, give up your third to swap places with NE and take him.I would love for this to happen, but as things stand right now, I suspect all 4 guys will be gone by 7. If Ellis is still there at #5, New Orleans would probably be happy to trade down, they can still get a good o-lineman at 9. But I don't know the cost, maybe 3rd and a 5th? We absolutely need a stout defensive lineman, and unless Marvin thinks we're going to get that bone-on-bone guy after the Jets cut him, I think we're almost forced into some type of move up. Costly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesperateDerelict Posted March 14, 2008 Report Share Posted March 14, 2008 I still think a better option is, trade up. If C. Long, Dorsey, Gholsten or Ellis is there at 7, give up your third to swap places with NE and take him.I would love for this to happen, but as things stand right now, I suspect all 4 guys will be gone by 7. If Ellis is still there at #5, New Orleans would probably be happy to trade down, they can still get a good o-lineman at 9. But I don't know the cost, maybe 3rd and a 5th? We absolutely need a stout defensive lineman, and unless Marvin thinks we're going to get that bone-on-bone guy after the Jets cut him, I think we're almost forced into some type of move up. Costly.1) I seriously doubt anybody will trade into the top 4 - way too costly.2) At number 5, KC's only possible trading partner is New England, and they don't have another 1st or a 2nd round pick - I just think Belichick would love to jump in front of the Jets and steal Gholston.3) 3 of the 4 D-linemen (Long, Dorsey, and Ellis) are better fits for a 4 - 3. The only teams expected to run a 4 - 3 next year that are drafting in the top ten are: Falcons, Raiders, Chiefs, Bengals, and Saints.4) In this class, there are other DT's that can be exceptional players - Dre Moore, T. Laws, and especially A. Rubin, to name a few.5) Depending on who's available, serious trade offers will start with pick #7, and escalate to Buffalo at #11. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrishcovga Posted March 14, 2008 Report Share Posted March 14, 2008 Since nobody including the Bengals front office seems to know what to expect what will happen at # 9, then what about this scenario ??Leodis McElvin CB, Troy St. Instantly gives us the third corner, and a top notch return man !If the elite lineman are gone, this draft is plenty deep at DT, and Offensive line to secure our long term needs. But reality has to set in some time..1. I like Deltha O'Neal, but with his knees, or other ailments, and his willingness to only want to play out his contract since he didn't get the big bucks offered to him after '05, This should be the draft that we get his replacement.If not another corner - Then trading down and using Rivers, or McFadden, as the bait is the best chance to do that.- Rivers is an exceptional player, but he's not an elite linebacker. Erin Henderson is a better fit for our defense, and based off of film work, he's every bit the player Rivers is, without the supporting cast playing next to him.- Kentwan Balmer is a NO !!! - This is like picking a penn state running back !!!! Even the Great Julius Peppers is trade bait now, because North Carolina defensive lineman ( except for Lawrence Taylor's OLB/DE) tend to bust out. You could make the arguement that once Butch Davis got there, the light turned on for this kid, my gut says, once a turd, always a turd. - Derrick Harvey is very quick off the snap, and is a natural pass rusher. But he's not #9. - Phillip Merling is a very good football player. We can get him at 12 if a trade down is made.He also has a good motor and diagnoses plays quickly. - I like Lawrence Jackson DE, USC. He's probably at his highest a mid first rounder. At worst he's going mid second round. He played with a great supporting cast, and benefitted from playing next to Ellis, but he's very adept at setting up tackles for second moves. He's been well coached and he's got the best stats of any defensive end in the draft.If we're going for the best player available at #9, & we can't trade down, & all the top lineman are gone, then why not take the best available cornerback in the draft that also doubles as our punt return specialist ?? He won't be pressed to start, because of Joseph and Hall, and he's an upgrade over Deltha. - * There is also the fact that Marvin attended Tracy Porter's (CB, Indiana's) workout, and was quoted as saying he liked him as a corner and return man, but figures he'll be there at #46. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierCat Posted March 14, 2008 Report Share Posted March 14, 2008 Since nobody including the Bengals front office seems to know what to expect what will happen at # 9, then what about this scenario ??Leodis McElvin CB, Troy St. Instantly gives us the third corner, and a top notch return man !It's certainly a thought. But given the money they've dumped into CB over the last two seasons by picking Joseph and Hall in the first, I think they'd be very reluctant to go that route. (Porter in the second I can see.) Ditto a DE like Merling or Harvey: with $60 million-ish pumped into Geathers and Odom's pockets, plus the new deal for Fanene and the 3rd rounder that is the Non Dairy Dessert, pouring No. 9 money into the DE slot is, I believe, right out.If CLong, Dorsey, Ellis and Gholsten are gone, my bet is the pick goes to the other side of the ball. Probably OT, but possibly WR or RB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fattyjay Posted March 14, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 14, 2008 Since nobody including the Bengals front office seems to know what to expect what will happen at # 9, then what about this scenario ??Leodis McElvin CB, Troy St. Instantly gives us the third corner, and a top notch return man !It's certainly a thought. But given the money they've dumped into CB over the last two seasons by picking Joseph and Hall in the first, I think they'd be very reluctant to go that route. (Porter in the second I can see.) Ditto a DE like Merling or Harvey: with $60 million-ish pumped into Geathers and Odom's pockets, plus the new deal for Fanene and the 3rd rounder that is the Non Dairy Dessert, pouring No. 9 money into the DE slot is, I believe, right out.If CLong, Dorsey, Ellis and Gholsten are gone, my bet is the pick goes to the other side of the ball. Probably OT, but possibly WR or RB.I think your money pumping explanation can be used to rule out an OT at #9 too. With Willie and Levi's contract extensions and the franchising of Stacy (at OT money) why would they take an OT at #9? I'll stop pimping Stewart for a second and suggest that a darkhorse candidate that I have seen in mock as high as #7 and as low as #25 would be Groves. He has experience at LB and is a tremendous pass rusher, with the size and speed to be versatile. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierCat Posted March 14, 2008 Report Share Posted March 14, 2008 I think your money pumping explanation can be used to rule out an OT at #9 too.Maybe...but remember that Stacy's deal is, so far, just a one-year thing, and Willie's deal is structured in such a way that he can be cut and it actually frees up $1.6 million in cap space. If they get a long-term deal with Andrews before the draft, then yeah, I think o-line waits.I'll stop pimping Stewart for a second and suggest that a darkhorse candidate that I have seen in mock as high as #7 and as low as #25 would be Groves. He has experience at LB and is a tremendous pass rusher, with the size and speed to be versatile.Yeah, Groves has been all over the board. Generally tho he doesn't fall into the top 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesperateDerelict Posted March 14, 2008 Report Share Posted March 14, 2008 Yeah, Groves has been all over the board. Generally tho he doesn't fall into the top 10.If the Patriots cannot jump in front of the Jets to snag Gholston (assuming he's on the board), they could very possibly go with Groves - a much better fit than any other D-lineman or backer. They might figure they have a better chance of grabbing a corner in the 3rd than a DE/OLB.It's going to be a hard-sell for anybody to trade down out of the top 7 or 8. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HairOnFire Posted March 14, 2008 Report Share Posted March 14, 2008 Since nobody including the Bengals front office seems to know what to expect what will happen at # 9, then what about this scenario ??Leodis McElvin CB, Troy St. Instantly gives us the third corner, and a top notch return man ! I've considered him, and IMHO it always boils down to this. It's an easy thing to talk yourself out of, and I won't bother giving the reasons why. They're obvious, right? That said, there is still a reason why it's always nagged at me. In short,if the draft doesn't fall the way the Bengals hope he could very easily be the best player available, and as a result deserves more consideration than we've given. And there's this. If the Bengals would consider a player like Porter in the 2nd round, and they apparently are, there's no reason they shouldn't consider a far better CB prospect one round earlier, especially if that player is considered a far more dangerous returner capable of filling both return roles. Last point. If McElvin is the choice at #9 you can bet your last dollar that he's not the 3rd CB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fattyjay Posted March 14, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 14, 2008 Since nobody including the Bengals front office seems to know what to expect what will happen at # 9, then what about this scenario ??Leodis McElvin CB, Troy St. Instantly gives us the third corner, and a top notch return man ! I've considered him, and IMHO it always boils down to this. It's an easy thing to talk yourself out of, and I won't bother giving the reasons why. They're obvious, right? That said, there is still a reason why it's always nagged at me. In short,if the draft doesn't fall the way the Bengals hope he could very easily be the best player available, and as a result deserves more consideration than we've given. And there's this. If the Bengals would consider a player like Porter in the 2nd round, and they apparently are, there's no reason they shouldn't consider a far better CB prospect one round earlier, especially if that player is considered a far more dangerous returner capable of filling both return roles. Last point. If McElvin is the choice at #9 you can bet your last dollar that he's not the 3rd CB.So, who do you demote to nickel Hall or Joseph? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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