SI picks us to win the AFC North

[AGrizzlyBaer]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/...xtra_newsletter

[HoosierCat]

OTOH, SI's Don Banks picks us to finish...3rd.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writ...ions/index.html

[COB]

At least we're getting a little love somewhere. Beats getting completely left out of the conversation as various talking heads debate if it will be Pittsburgh or Baltimore. Man, those first six games...

[HoosierCat]

Here's the "experts" at espn.com:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/preview07/ne...tory?id=2984130

A fair number pick us to make the playoffs as either division winners or WCs, but no one thinks we'll go anywhere (no AFC Champs, no SB).

Special mention has to be given to Eric Allen and Mark "Stink" Schlereth, who both say Cincinnati will win its division and gt an AFC wild card berth!

[SkinneymulleT]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/...rt/bengals.html

They insist they've made the mental adjustments needed for a Super Bowl run, but there's still the matter of that porous D

WHAT'S NEW?

When a gimpy Carson Palmer can throw for 4,035 yards, as he did last year, for a team that blew two games on special teams gaffes, it's easy to picture Cincinnati making its second playoff appearance in three years. In training camp this summer Palmer looked picture-perfect and more mobile than last fall. Look for him to be closer to the 68% passer he was in 2005 than the 62% he was last year. With Chris Henry suspended by the NFL for half the season after four arrests in seven months, Palmer will turn to Chad Johnson even more on deep balls. The Bengals will need to score plenty because the defense, with the exception of rookie cornerback Leon Hall, isn't any better this year.

WHERE THEY'RE HEADED

Biggest question about the Bengals leaguewide: How can a team with this talent have gone 8–8 in three of the past four years? Answer: Maybe they're not as talented as people think.

Or maybe, as Palmer believes, there are fixable flaws late in important games. Cincinnati, needing one win in the last two games to make the playoffs, lost in Denver on a botched extra-point snap and fell to Pittsburgh when kicker Shayne Graham shanked a 39-yard field goal attempt. Boom -- a 10–6 wild-card season becomes an 8–8 lead balloon. "The good teams play great some weeks," Palmer says. "The great teams play great every week. It makes me grind my teeth when I think about the breakdowns we've had."

To that end, Palmer walked into coach Marvin Lewis's office early in the off-season and handed him a book by Capt. Michael Abrashoff. It's Your Ship: Management Techniques from the Best Damn Ship in the Navy describes how a lackluster vessel became a model for the fleet thanks to a captain who empowered his crew to want to be the best. "It's a significant book with a good story for a football team," Lewis says. "[Abrashoff] took an underperforming group, had a vision and made it an exemplary ship."

Lewis has stressed just such a teamcentric message to his players, emphasizing that individual success doesn't necessarily mean victory. "Last year, coming off a division championship, was a great lesson," Lewis says. "Dealing with success, dealing with players wanting new contracts -- I don't think we dealt with that well at all. They need to understand that quality preparation during the week makes Sundays easier and gives us a better chance to win. The message now is, Just play your butt off and good things will happen, both for you personally and for the team."

No doubt good things will happen on offense, even after the speed threat out of the backfield, rookie Kenny Irons, tore his left ACL in the first preseason game and was lost for the year. Rudi Johnson still gives Cincinnati a reliable every-down back. (He's averaged more than 1,400 yards over the last three seasons.) A competent, pile-driving left guard, Stacy Andrews, should be O.K. as the departed Eric Steinbach's heir. When your biggest concern on offense is replacing Henry as the third receiver (Tab Perry or college sprinter Bennie Brazell will assume the role), it's a sign that your offense, eighth in scoring in '06, should be just as effective.

Part of that assured feeling is Palmer's being more comfortable this year after gutting out a 2006 season that kicked off just 34 weeks after major knee reconstruction. "Last year was frustrating," says Palmer. "I missed three passes against Atlanta [in a 29–27 loss] I should have completed in my sleep. My rhythm just was a little off all year. Passes I might normally hit 10 out of 10, I was hitting seven of 10 last year. I feel so much better this year because I've been able to practice and throw like I normally do."

Curiously, other than drafting Hall, the Bengals did precious little to improve a 30th-rated defense. The teams they'll have to beat for AFC supremacy -- New England, Indianapolis and San Diego -- strafed them for 38, 34 and 49 points, respectively, last year. That inaction could haunt them in December.

Defensive end Justin Smith is a nice fellow, a hard-tryer, a soft-spoken, cog-in-the-machine type that every defense wishes it had. But he is not a franchise player, not when he has averaged seven sacks and 44 tackles a season in his six years. He is, however, the closest thing the Bengals have to a great player on defense. (Who did you think we were going to anoint here? Domata Peko? Rashad Jeanty?) It's great to have a 4,000-yard quarterback, but if your defense is surrendering a league-worst 3,818 passing yards -- as Cincinnati did -- isn't that a wash? The Bengals needed to improve their front seven, but instead of entering the Joey Porter sweepstakes they settled for a linebacking retread, Edgerton Hartwell, whose last two years were plagued by injury.

If young players like Hall and second-year middle linebacker Ahmad Brooks don't mature in a hurry on that defense, all the naval lessons in the world aren't going to make this the best damn ship in the NFL. -- Peter King

Issue date: September 3, 2007

[HoosierCat]

Excellent summary of the state of the team and its prospects from USA Today. They predict 9-7. Hard to find much to argue with here...

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/bengals/home.htm

When the Bengals gathered at Georgetown College near Lexington, Ky., in July, it went to work to try to improve its run game offensively, develop an identity as a ball-hawking defense and rebuild its special teams with better results on returns.

Offensively, starting tackles Willie Anderson and Levi Jones would not step on the field at training camp. And rookie tailback Kenny Irons, the team's second-round draft pick, was lost for the season in the first exhibition game with a knee ligament injury.

The Bengals were embarrassed by their 26th-ranked run offense in 2006 and determined to improve it. Without Irons, the Bengals don't have an outside threat to change-up with Rudi Johnson, who runs best between the tackles.

Late in the preseason, though, after the team cut down to 75 players, the Bengals said tailback Chris Perry — whose prolific injury history forced the team to draft Irons — is making a speedy recovery and probably wouldn't need to open the season on the physically-unable-to-perform (PUP) list. Perry is an excellent receiver who had 51 receptions in 2005 and has the speed to get outside.

On defense, the Bengals are young, relying on a quartet of second-year players as starters: linebackers Rashad Jeanty and Ahmad Brooks, cornerback Johnathan Joseph and tackle Domata Peko. There will be growing pains.

Brooks, in the middle, is hot and cold, though capable of big plays. Joseph is coming off a fracture of a bone in his foot. Peko is expected to play a lot of snaps. Jeanty will start the season on the sideline; he is scheduled to undergo surgery on a lower leg Aug. 31 and will miss time, coach Marvin Lewis said. Rookie cornerback Leon Hall will play nickel, and fellow rookies Marvin White and Chinedum Ndukwe are both second-string and expected to contribute defensively and on special teams.

Cornerback Deltha O'Neal, entering his eighth NFL season, remains the key defensively. He was a Pro Bowl player with a league-tying best 10 interceptions in 2005. He slumped miserably in 2006, going through a couple of injuries and getting arrested for DUI. O'Neal appeared disinterested at timea. If he is engaged, he would allow the Bengals to bring their younger defensive players some help.

Speaking of special teams, efforts to improve the 29th-ranked kickoff and punt return averages have been hampered by injuries to project return men Antonio Chatman (hamstring) and Tab Perry (hip), though Perry will open the season as the No. 1 kickoff return man. Second-year receiver Skyler Green probably will be the punt return specialist, though he is inexperienced in the NFL.

The Bengals also are trying to replace a core group of special teams veterans allowed to leave in the offseason as unrestricted free agents. So far, the results are inconsistent at best and jagged most of the time.

As long as the Bengals have their primary talent offensively — quarterback Carson Palmer, Rudi Johnson and receivers Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh — they are dangerous. They could win 10 or 11 games, though another 8-8 or 9-7 season looks more probable.

Palmer keeps them in every game. The offense needs to do a better job on third down and keeping possession. Those two elements would help the defense by keeping it off the field, limiting its exposure to big plays, and helping it stay rested.

The Bengals need another fast start; they haven't lost a game in September since 2004. But they need to avoid late-season collapses. They lost their last three in a row when just one victory would have gotten them into the playoffs at 9-7.

Lewis' goal?

"To see our good players be good players for 16 games," is how he describes both his ambition for 2007 and greatest disappointment for the previous few seasons, "for great players to be great for 16 weeks."

COACHING: Marvin Lewis, 5th year, 5th with Bengals (35-30-0).

REMEMBERING: 2006 record: 8-8 (tied 2nd in AFC North).

PREDICTING: 2007 regular season record 9-7 (2nd in AFC North); do not qualify as wildcard team.

NOTES, QUOTES

—Linebacker David Pollack, rehabbing from a fractured neck, was not placed on the season-ending injured-reserve list Tuesday, leaving open the possibility he might play this season, though Pollack and the team already announced he would not. He was placed on the physically-unable-to-perform (PUP) list.

"He's going to be around the team regardless. It's a step," head coach Marvin Lewis said. "What I say can obviously change, and there's a window of opportunity (of Pollack playing this year). It's not likely it would occur.

"Chances are it is one in one million that it would occur, but it (PUP) does provide the window there. He'll enter the season on PUP."

The Bengals can activate Pollack from the PUP list after the sixth week of the season.

"Everything is going great. On schedule, but it's not one of those things, like a hamstring, you can rush back," Pollack said. "You have to be patient and see where God takes it. It's all you can do."

—In other moves to reach the NFL requirement of 75 players on Aug. 28, the Bengals waived rookie wide receiver Tony Kays and rookie fullback Stan White and placed linebacker David Pollack, offensive tackle Adam Kieft and defensive end Jimmy Verdon on various reserve lists. Kieft landed on the season-ending injured reserve list after suffering a fractured foot in the Aug. 18 game against the Saints. And Verdon is on the non-football injured reserve (Europe) list after getting hurt as a player in NFL Europa.

The Bengals, like all NFL teams, must be down to 53 players by 4 p.m. Saturday.

The Bengals will play their final preseason game Friday night at Paul Brown Stadium against Indianapolis.

—In accordance with NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell's initiative to strengthen team leadership, the Bengals announced their first season-long captains in four-plus seasons under Lewis. By vote of the team, quarterback Carson Palmer was named offensive captain and tackle John Thornton defensive captain. They will wear the NFL's new captains' patch on their uniform jerseys.

"This is a significant honor conferred on Carson and John by their teammates," Lewis said. "We are excited to have them in this role."

Lewis said he will also continue to name weekly team captains from the offense, defense and special teams.

"A number of our players received a significant number of votes (for the season-long captain positions)," Lewis said, "and we value their leadership as well. Our weekly team captain decisions will be based on player performance, as well as on specific factors regarding the upcoming opponent."

—Cornerback Keiwan Ratliff said he lost 11 pounds and is down to 178 pounds. He had his four wisdom teeth removed early last week and just resumed eating this week.

The former second-round pick in 2004, Ratliff appears to have fallen out of favor with some members of the coaching staff and could be released when the team has to cut down first to 75 players (Tuesday) and then 53 (Sept. 1).

BY THE NUMBERS: 5 — Number of playoff teams the Bengals face in their first six games (Baltimore, Seattle, New England, Kansas City and the Jets).

QUOTE TO NOTE: "You always have to worry about a roster spot. When I get to the point where I think I don't have to worry about a roster spot, that will be a roster spot I won't have." — Wide receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh, on his approach to training camp and the preseason.

STRATEGY AND PERSONNEL

The Bengals have a new kicker for the time being. But Aaron Elling is the first to know that as soon as Shayne Graham heals from his bruised right hip that Elling will be back on the road.

Elling, picked up off waivers Tuesday from Jacksonville, will kick in the preseason finale Friday night at home against Indianapolis. Graham will not dress.

"Shayne ... is actually progressing pretty well," Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis said Wednesday. "We signed Aaron ... to kind of relieve us this week and take over and see where we are next week."

Graham said he took a knee directly to the right hip in the pile at the end of a kickoff return Monday night in Atlanta.

"They told me to sit it out this week, everything will be all right and I'll be able to play in the first game," Graham said. "I don't see where there is anything to worry about."

PLAYER TO WATCH: TE Daniel Coats — Undrafted out of Brigham Young, the rookie could not have landed in a better spot. Three Bengals tight ends were injured early in training camp, increasing Coats' exposure and reps. He is solid as a receiver and answered coaches' concerns with strong blocking technique. He is likely to make the roster as the No. 2 tight end behind starter Reggie Kelly.

DRAFT PICKS TO STICK

Rd. 1/18, CB Leon Hall, Michigan — Has gone largely unnoticed in preseason, not a bad thing for a cornerback. He will open the season as the nickel.

Rd. 2/49, RB Kenny Irons, Auburn — Out for season with ACL injury and surgery.

Rd. 4/114, S Marvin White, Texas Christian — Is backup free safety, though he is best against the run. Could open season as a gunner on special teams punt coverage.

Rd. 5/151, QB Jeff Rowe, Nevada — Displayed his appeal to coaches with solid performances late in three preseason games. Plays with composure.

Rd 6/187, DT Matt Toeaina, Oregon — Could be a numbers issue on a suddenly deep defensive line. Probably will open season on practice squad.

Rd. 7/230, C-G Dan Santucci, Notre Dame — Now part of Pileline that has developed linemen in recent years. Practice squad material.

Rd. 7-253, S Chinedum Ndukwe, Notre Dame — A lot is expected of Ndukwe, maybe a little too much for a player three picks from Mr. Irrelevant, but he is smart and works hard.

UNIT-BY-UNIT ANALYSIS

QUARTERBACK: Starter — Carson Palmer. Backups — Doug Johnson, Jeff Rowe.

No NFL team, save the Colts and Peyton Manning, depends more on its passer than the Bengals and Palmer. He is poised to have the best season of his career. Johnson is a dramatic dropoff.

RUNNING BACK: Starters — Rudi Johnson, FB Jeremi Johnson. Backups — Kenny Watson, Quincy Wilson, Curtis Brown, Chris Perry (injured), FB Chris Manderino.

Johnson leads the NFL in rush attempts since the start of 2004 and looks ready to increase his workload. He might have to after No. 2 pick Kenny Irons was lost for the season with a preseason ACL injury. Watson is solid on third down, though not explosive. The good news for the Bengals could be the early return of Perry, who probably won't have to start the season on the PUP list.

TIGHT END/H-BACK: Starter — Reggie Kelly. Backups — Daniel Coats, Nate Lawrie.

Kelly is finally getting the attention he deserves for doing so much dirty work as a blocker and unselfish player among a group of skilled players who want the ball all the time. Coats has impressed as a rookie free agent and could give the Bengals some catches at tight end. Lawrie's hope is to stick on special teams.

WIDE RECEIVER: Starters — Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Backups — Tab Perry, Glenn Holt, Skyler Green, Reggie McNeal, Bennie Brazell, Antonio Chatman, Chris Henry (suspended first eight games by NFL).

Perry will get the job as No. 3 receiver with Henry out. He needs to improve his timing with Palmer. After the top three, health is the primary consideration. McNeal will probably be the No. 4 receiver, with Holt coming back from injury to stick on offense and special teams.

OFFENSIVE LINE: Starters — LT Levi Jones, LG Stacy Andrews, C Eric Ghiaciuc, RG Bobbie Williams, RT Willie Anderson. Backups — LT-LG Andrew Whitworth, RT Scott Kooistra, C Alex Stepanovich, G Nate Livings, C-G Dan Santucci.

The returns of Jones and Anderson lifted spirits considerably at the end of the preseason. Depth should be better, with Whitworth and Kooistra getting a ton of work in training camp and exhibition games.

DEFENSIVE LINE: Starters — LE Robert Geathers, LT Domata Peko, RT John Thornton, RE Justin Smith. Backups - E/T Bryan Robinson, T Michael Myers, E-T Jonathan Fanane, T Kenderick Allen, T Matt Toeaina, E Frostee Rucker.

Depth has improved on the line. Geathers wants to better his 10.5 sacks in 2006 and will be more of an every-down player. Smith is in the franchise year as an end, and he promises nothing more than his consistent effort; he plays every down. Myers moves exceptionally well laterally. Peko could be a force. Thornton is a solid team leader.

LINEBACKER: Starters — SLB Rashad Jeanty (injured), Landon Johnson, MLB Ahmad Brooks, WLB Caleb Miller. Backups — MLB Ed Hartwell, WLB-MLB Lemar Marshall, LB Andre Frazier, LB Earl Everett, LB Matt Muncy.

The position is in flux, and there will be a lot of specialization. The addition of Marshall, terminated by Washington, should help. Hartwell's experience will be key sooner than later. Johnson is steady and looks ready for a big year; he will be a UFA.

DEFENSIVE BACKS: Starters — LCB Deltha O'Neal, RCB Johnathan Joseph, SS Dexter Jackson, FS Madieu Williams. Backups — CB Leon Hall, CB Keiwan Ratliff, FS Marvin White, SS Chinedum Ndukwe, S John Busing, S Herana-Daze Jones, S Ethan Kilmer.

Busing, White, Jones and Ndukwe will play a lot of special teams snaps. Hall will be the nickel. Joseph needs to shake off a foot injury and subsequent soreness. O'Neal needs to look more like the Pro Bowler of 2005 than the bust of 2006. The Bengals tied for last in 2006 in passing yards allowed.

SPECIAL TEAMS: P Kyle Larson, K Shayne Graham, PR Skyler Green, Antonio Chatman, Keiwan Ratliff, KOR Antonio Chatman, Skyler Green, Glenn Holt, Curtis Brown, Reggie McNeal, LS Brad St. Louis.

Graham is resting from a bruised hip. The team inherited Aaron Elling's contract off waivers from Jacksonville for the last preseason game. Larson is poised for a Pro Bowl season; he is that consistent. The problem is the kickoff and punt return games, where Tab Perry has not had a lot of work on kickoffs and Green might not be ready for the punt return job in the NFL. Cover teams are in flux.

[BengalszoneBilly]

For them to put the words "Bengals Defense" and "Ball Hawking" in the same sentence had to have been a typo.

[Stripes]

For them to put the words "Bengals Defense" and "Ball Hawking" in the same sentence had to have been a typo.

Nah, even last season it would have been a fitting term.

Bengals takeaway rankings since '04:

'04 - T3rd

'05 - 1st

'06 - T7th

[skyline]

Thanks for the link, Hoosier.

I can't believe how informed the writer actually appeared to be. Most Bengals articles I read from the media outside of Cincy really have no idea what's going on with the team other than the one or two major headlines they may have picked up on over the previous couple of weeks...or months.

[HoosierCat]

I can't believe how informed the writer actually appeared to be. Most Bengals articles I read from the media outside of Cincy really have no idea what's going on with the team other than the one or two major headlines they may have picked up on over the previous couple of weeks...or months.

That was exactly my reaction. If the rest of USA today's team coverage is as good, it just became a go-to resource.

[BengalszoneBilly]

For them to put the words "Bengals Defense" and "Ball Hawking" in the same sentence had to have been a typo.

Nah, even last season it would have been a fitting term.

Bengals takeaway rankings since '04:

'04 - T3rd

'05 - 1st

'06 - T7th

And where did they finish in terms of over all pass defense in those years? It wasn't at the top if memory serves. Last year was dead last. This year doesn't look any different so far...

[HoosierCat]

You thought SI was the kiss of death?

No...I have the kiss of death right here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X2PpDGXAT-U

[Kazkal]

And where did they finish in terms of over all pass defense in those years? It wasn't at the top if memory serves. Last year was dead last. This year doesn't look any different so far...

It's ball hawking not ball knocking down defense

[HoosierCat]

And where did they finish in terms of over all pass defense in those years? It wasn't at the top if memory serves. Last year was dead last. This year doesn't look any different so far...

It's ball hawking not ball knocking down defense

The Bengals D had an interception...

...but the f**king cat eated it!

[BengalszoneBilly]

It's ball hawking not ball knocking down defense

Bragging that your teams defense finished high in "Ball Hawking" but they somehow finish at the bottom in pass defense year after year, is a lot like bragging on how hot your girlfriend looks, yet she's banging everybody but you.

[DesperateDerelict]

You thought SI was the kiss of death?

No...I have the kiss of death right here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X2PpDGXAT-U

Thanks, Hoosier - I'd never seen PFT before - I like their analysis, but WOW - those guys need a new studio set - that was butt-ugly - is that show broadcast from a cave?

[skyline]

You thought SI was the kiss of death?

No...I have the kiss of death right here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X2PpDGXAT-U

... is that show broadcast from a cave?

Nope. The spare bedroom at his mom's house...