2014 Prediction

[TJJackson]

I had forgotten about that feature, kingwilly, thanks for reminding me

Gregcook is now on my "Uncle Rico" list too so I don't have to read any more of his crap

[gregcook68]

I had forgotten about that feature, kingwilly, thanks for reminding me

Gregcook is now on my "Uncle Rico" list too so I don't have to read any more of his crap

:weep:/> :no:/> :cry:/> :frustrated:/> :bye:/>

[kingwilly]

Oh, I see. The more I simplify it for you, the more absurd you make it (fantasy football comment).

You can slice it however you like. Fact remains, until Dalton shows he can deliver he's going to be a target of criticism, most of it rightly deserved. Dark times notwithstanding, other QB comparisons notwithstanding.

He's had an elite D and elite weapons every year he's been here. Indisputable. He's played his worst when the light was brightest...

So, do the trends point up or down?

I can dispute the elite weapons clause there. He has had Green, paired with average WR's and a pathetic running game more often than not. Give Dalton the running game that Ryan has had in Atlanta until last season and he probably shows better in those big games. I will agree that last year the running game improved some and the WR's other than Green finally showed some game time presence. This year should tell, if they can keep the weapons they finally have given Dalton healthy.

I think you are reaching to make your point a little King and it just is not like you.

Benson came into 2011 after having the 5th most carries in 2010 despite barely cracking 3.5 ypc despite teams keying on him. Also let's not forget Gresham was progressing, so was on the upswing aim towards elite-ish. The running game wasn't elite but it was better than average. Sanu also looked like a hot prospect.

But you are correct, elite is a bit of an overstatement.

@hoosier, yes, Atlanta two years (2012 and 2010)year where their defense gave up fewer ppg than Zimmers best. One the whole, Atlanta has been very inconsistent and prone to collapse. Yes, they gave up 1.3 fewer ppg in 2012, though that year they gave up far more ypg and a much worse 3rd down conversion rate. Most other stats are about level set. In 2013, Atlanta was 27th in yard per game and points per game and worst in 3rd down conversions. Ryan has had, overall, not as good or as consistent of D as Dalton. Not my opinion.

[Wraith]

I was thinking about the Dalton situation the other day (now that this thread has devolved into a discussion of his capabilities). I would be considered on this board a pretty large Dalton backer. I think we have seen growth in his game every year. I think the offensive scheme hasn't worked in his favor. As for the playoff wins, I consider them a whole team failure rather than just a personal one. In the first Houston game we just got manhandled on offense and defense. In the second Houston game didn't we have like 10 drops in that game (5 from Gresham alone?) including two dropped TDs? The SD game was another team failure our offensive lions got thwacked (technical term). All this being said, even though I am a pretty big Dalton guy, if the guy were demanding a Flacco-cap-destroying contract, I would let him walk and take my chances with developing McCarron. Play out the string this year and take that money and make sure Burfict and Green are wrapped up long term.

[HoosierCat]

I was thinking about the Dalton situation the other day (now that this thread has devolved into a discussion of his capabilities). I would be considered on this board a pretty large Dalton backer. I think we have seen growth in his game every year. I think the offensive scheme hasn't worked in his favor. As for the playoff wins, I consider them a whole team failure rather than just a personal one. In the first Houston game we just got manhandled on offense and defense. In the second Houston game didn't we have like 10 drops in that game (5 from Gresham alone?) including two dropped TDs? The SD game was another team failure our offensive lions got thwacked (technical term). All this being said, even though I am a pretty big Dalton guy, if the guy were demanding a Flacco-cap-destroying contract, I would let him walk and take my chances with developing McCarron. Play out the string this year and take that money and make sure Burfict and Green are wrapped up long term.

I generally agree, but with the caveat that the whole "Flacco cap destroying contract" concept seems pretty bogus to me. Even a $20 million deal would represent only about 15% of the cap. That's about what Palmer cost in 2005 and I don't recall having to sacrifice tons of players. With the cap set to shoot up to $160 million over the next couple years (and that's without expanded playoffs and more regular season games, both of which seem inevitable), $20 million will soon look like a bargain.

[gregcook68]

I was thinking about the Dalton situation the other day (now that this thread has devolved into a discussion of his capabilities). I would be considered on this board a pretty large Dalton backer. I think we have seen growth in his game every year. I think the offensive scheme hasn't worked in his favor. As for the playoff wins, I consider them a whole team failure rather than just a personal one. In the first Houston game we just got manhandled on offense and defense. In the second Houston game didn't we have like 10 drops in that game (5 from Gresham alone?) including two dropped TDs? The SD game was another team failure our offensive lions got thwacked (technical term). All this being said, even though I am a pretty big Dalton guy, if the guy were demanding a Flacco-cap-destroying contract, I would let him walk and take my chances with developing McCarron. Play out the string this year and take that money and make sure Burfict and Green are wrapped up long term.

I generally agree, but with the caveat that the whole "Flacco cap destroying contract" concept seems pretty bogus to me. Even a $20 million deal would represent only about 15% of the cap. That's about what Palmer cost in 2005 and I don't recall having to sacrifice tons of players. With the cap set to shoot up to $160 million over the next couple years (and that's without expanded playoffs and more regular season games, both of which seem inevitable), $20 million will soon look like a bargain.

I haven't seen any updates on the website recently. Anyone heard anything locally about the status of Dalton, Green, and Burfict negotiations?

[HoosierCat]

Nothing new as far as I know.

[HoosierCat]

On the subject of our allegedly elite skill players...

/>http://www.cincyjungle.com/2014/5/27/5753022/a-j-green-overrated-pro-football-focus-says-so

Yup.

[skyline]

On the subject of our allegedly elite skill players...

http://www.cincyjung...l-focus-says-so

Yup.

Silliness.

Yes, he has room to grow. He needs to work on consistency and cutting down on drops. No doubt.

97th in the league? Ummmmm, no.

Data lies. Or more accurately, it doesn't tell the entire story. It's very important to use it responsibly, which PFF doesn't always do.

[COB]

On the subject of our allegedly elite skill players...

/>http://www.cincyjungle.com/2014/5/27/5753022/a-j-green-overrated-pro-football-focus-says-so

Yup.

Quote from that link:

"2. Green could have had even better numbers if he played with a QB with a better deep-ball than Andy Dalton. Far too many times Green beat his man and had an easy touchdown if Dalton could have just lead him a little more, but underthrew it and allowed the defender to recover and either deflect he pass, or limit the damage done by Green."

For the sake of clarity, that was the writer at Cincyjungle commenting on the PFF article.

Marvin Jones looked pretty stud-like last year. I think most teams would consider that one-two punch to be, if not elite, way above sufficient. I've said it before and I'll say it again, all Dalton needs to be successful is for everything around him to go exactly right. Skill players schmill players. We've got great skill players and to debate whether they are top 3 in the league or top ten in the league is splitting hairs. In my mind the true key to this year will be Whit. If they keep him at tackle, and he plays at a high level, they'll play well (until the playoffs when in my opinion, Dalton will repeat his pattern of choking in big games). If Whit shows what I felt he showed last year - getting nicked, slowing a bit, not quite as effective, then you are putting a player, Dalton, in a situation that he is not equipped to handle. He doesn't have Kaepernick's feet, he's not made to escape the pocket and extend plays ala Roethlisberger. He needs a really clean pocket. If Whit isn't playing great, I'm not sure what their plan is, because then they are setting Dalton up to fail. He's limited. They need to recognize that and live in reality.

[HoosierCat]

Data lies. Or more accurately, it doesn't tell the entire story. It's very important to use it responsibly, which PFF doesn't always do.

Oh, I know. But I agree with the basic idea. If it were just PFF I wouldn't pay much attention, but football outsiders' WR rankings tell a similar story. Green ranked ninth in the league in his rookie season, but has fallen into the 20s since. My take is that he's been skating on his admittedly ridiculous physical talents, so I was glad to see Hue call him out along with Andy the other day.

COB:

Marvin Jones looked pretty stud-like last year.

Why yes, he did, and that's why CJ's blame-Dalton argument falls flat. He's so bad that not one but two WRs have ranked in FO's top 11 in his first three years. As for the deep ball, there was a chart floating around twitter a couple weeks ago (again from PFF IIRC, I'll see if I can find it) that had Dalton in the top 5 league-wide in terms of deep ball accuracy.

As for Whit being the key, any QB with left tackle problems is in trouble no matter how good his feet are.

ETA:here's the tweet I remembered. On passes of 20+ yards Andy is basically indistinguishable from P. Manning and Brees.

[COB]

As for Whit being the key, any QB with left tackle problems is in trouble no matter how good his feet are.

I don't agree that you can dismiss that factor as flippantly as you have. QB mobility, escapability, pocket awareness, whatever you want to call it, is a huge factor. Some quarterbacks save their o-lines' asses on breakdowns. Some get knocked on their asses. Is their really any debate which kind we have here?

Two ways to live with mediocre line - Pocket awareness and get rid of the ball as you feel pressure, and quick footed, mobile guy who can get away. Dalton is neither. He needs a clean pocket. He needs a very clean pocket. More than most QBs, Andy Dalton needs stellar line play to be successful. Whit needs to be healthy and at the top of his game.

[TJJackson]

More than most QBs, Andy Dalton needs stellar line play to be successful. Whit needs to be healthy and at the top of his game.

Another reason to GIMME A LINEMAN

I hope they work the new RB hard at pass pro during camp, doesn't sound like he has much experience in that role.

[HoosierCat]

As for Whit being the key, any QB with left tackle problems is in trouble no matter how good his feet are.

I don't agree that you can dismiss that factor as flippantly as you have.

I'm not dismissing it. Yes, Dalton needs a strong o-line. What I object to is this:

More than most QBs

Show me a QB who plays well behind a poor o-line and I'll show you a very rare bird (yeah, I know, it's always birds with me. WTF is up with that?). About the only recent example I can think of is Rapistburger, and even that's been touch-and-go given how much time he's lost to injuries the last few years because he's running for his life every other snap.

[COB]

ETA:here's the tweet I remembered. On passes of 20+ yards Andy is basically indistinguishable from P. Manning and Brees.

Holy crap. That stat is amazing. I look at that stat and it would seem to be implying that Dalton's arm on downfield passes is equal to Payton Manning's, Drew Brees', and Matthew Stafford's. Do you really belive that is the case Hoosier? I don't.

[ArmyBengal]

While i'm not about to compare Dalton's feet to what Kaepernick brings to the table, I think it's a little off to make the statement that he can't run the ball.

He did plenty of it at TCU and while i'm aware that TCU isn't the NFL, he rushed 413 times during his 4 years for 3.9 per carry and 22 touchdowns.

How much of him not running is his "limitation" and how much was what was being asked of him ??

[COB]

About the only recent example I can think of is Rapistburger, and even that's been touch-and-go given how much time he's lost to injuries the last few years because he's running for his life every other snap.

I had a business dinner last Thursday night in Pittsburgh with a bunch of local people. Their level of delusion is very high. I actually enjoyed listening to them pontificate on how the Steelers are just destined to be great every year, how they own the North and any down year is just a blip. They believe they are entitled to success. Ben's declining skills and Tomlin, just Tomlin, will drag that franchise down for years to come. I loved that dinner and never even had to refute anything they said. Odd note: The dinner was at the Mortons on Liberty Avenue, and they had a waiter that could be James Harrison's twin brother.

[ArmyBengal]

I had a business dinner last Thursday night in Pittsburgh with a bunch of local people.

I'm sorry.

I had a Philly cheesesteak while in Philly this weekend and now can't seem to get the taste out of my mouth.

More trips to Philly forthcoming.

[COB]

While i'm not about to compare Dalton's feet to what Kaepernick brings to the table, I think it's a little off to make the statement that he can't run the ball.

You are right. He is a better runner than I am giving him credit for. Once he gets out of the pocket he can do some damage. In my opinion his problem is getting out of the pocket. He either waits too long or just can't get going quickly enough to escape.

My true bias against trying to run Dalton is a result of the psychological damage I received watching him play in the second half of the playoff game against the Chargers. That unforced fumble is burned into my brain.

[HoosierCat]

ETA:here's the tweet I remembered. On passes of 20+ yards Andy is basically indistinguishable from P. Manning and Brees.

Holy crap. That stat is amazing. I look at that stat and it would seem to be implying that Dalton's arm on downfield passes is equal to Payton Manning's, Drew Brees', and Matthew Stafford's. Do you really belive that is the case Hoosier? I don't.

It's hard to say from just that snapshot. For instance, how many of those passes were in the 20-30 yard range and how many were, say, 40-50+ yard bombs? How many were just freak plays like that deflected Hail Mary in the Baltimore game? But even so it does suggest to me that concerns about the deep ball are overblown.

OTOH one thing that absolutely puzzles me is the hideous rankings of our tight ends last year. I mean, if Andy really doesn't have a big arm (and he doesn't) then TEs out to be among his best weapons. But if FO is to be believed, in terms of receiving the Bengals would have been better off sitting Gresham and Eifert all year. I suspect that's an indictment of Gruden's playcalling, but it's also possible they both just suck. You can certainly make that case for Gresham (much to my embarrassment as a long-time supporter); Eifert it's still too soon to tell.

[ArmyBengal]

My true bias against trying to run Dalton is a result of the psychological damage I received watching him play in the second half of the playoff game against the Chargers. That unforced fumble is burned into my brain.

I'm still in Dalton's corner and that play makes me want to punch him in the face.

Maybe kick his dog and light a bag of poo on fire on his doorstep.

I jest with anything that someone may want to take offense to in my above comments, but yeah, that was infuriating !!!

[COB]

I had a business dinner last Thursday night in Pittsburgh with a bunch of local people.

I'm sorry.

I had a Philly cheesesteak while in Philly this weekend and now can't seem to get the taste out of my mouth.

More trips to Philly forthcoming.

Several years ago I had a meeting in Pittsburgh. It was for the American Gas Association meeting which was held in Pittsburgh in 2009. One fellow I was meeting flew up from Alabama where he lives and works. He gets off the plane and tells the cab driver the address. No go. Cab driver never heard of the address. My guy says it is downtown. Nope. Cab driver says what are you here for? American Gas Association meeting! And cab driver says, they're having that in Philly? No, Pittsburgh. Sorry bumpkin, you are in Philly, not Pittsburgh. He actually got the cities confused and flew to the wrong Pennsylvania city. Hey, both start with a P, I guess.

[HoosierCat]

My true bias against trying to run Dalton is a result of the psychological damage I received watching him play in the second half of the playoff game against the Chargers. That unforced fumble is burned into my brain.

I'm still in Dalton's corner and that play makes me want to punch him in the face.

Maybe kick his dog and light a bag of poo on fire on his doorstep.

I jest with anything that someone may want to take offense to in my above comments, but yeah, that was infuriating !!!

For me it's the Gio fumble. I don't blame him for it or want to punch him, but that was the play that just shouted to me "they're gonna lose."

That's not to excuse Dalton, he played horribly. But that's the play that's stuck with me. Same with the Gresham drop early in the first playoff game against Houston. Maybe it's because I've already baked poor QB play into my postseason expectations and am counting on everyone else to execute, so the breakdowns by other players loom larger with me..

[gregcook68]

The one thing that is amazingly consistent, that stands out in my mind with Bill Belichick, is his ability to insure that Brady almost always, year after year, has a good O-line.

A pocket QB who throw flat footed most of the time!

[kingwilly]

While i'm not about to compare Dalton's feet to what Kaepernick brings to the table, I think it's a little off to make the statement that he can't run the ball.

You are right. He is a better runner than I am giving him credit for. Once he gets out of the pocket he can do some damage. In my opinion his problem is getting out of the pocket. He either waits too long or just can't get going quickly enough to escape.

My true bias against trying to run Dalton is a result of the psychological damage I received watching him play in the second half of the playoff game against the Chargers. That unforced fumble is burned into my brain.

I think much of this was scheme. Gruden had so much happening, with prescribed targets, it felt like Dalton had very little he could take under his own direction. It never felt like they made great reads based on coverages or alignments. Lots of forcing throws and locking on primary targets, very little adjustment or playmaking when things didn't quite work out.

If the run game is potent, and if Dalton can handle making the reads to hit the best matchup, or where a breakdown occurs, then they can prosper. It's when he is forced to throw with elite accuracy, to the designated primary receiver no matter the matchup/coverage, then we will see him be inconsistent. Most would be.

Maybe the reason Gruden prescribed so much of the targeting/reads is because that's not a Dalton strength, and he knew it?

One thing is for sure is that by not having made gameplan adjustments and being predictable v SD in the playoff game, they really blew it big time. That's on Gruden more than anyone. That's the arrogance of a "We will play our style football and make them beat us", rather than, "They won't know what hit them". With the talent on Offense, its nuts they couldn't have a better gameplan.