Which seems more likely? Cincy or SD win?

[walzav29]

I am surprised to see everyone, and I mean everyone say that the Broncos will end up as the #2 seed. Yet they endlessly blow the Chargers as the greatest team in the NFL. By that math, wouldn't a Charger victory at home against Denver seem likely? Or is it that the Chiefs are so superior to the Bengals? I think the Chargers will kill the Broncos, and if the Chiefs had a hard time tackling Tiki. Wait until they try to tackled old Tree Trunk Legs himself Rudi J.

[The_Next_Big_Thing]

Cincy will win out unless a game no longer has any meaning for us.

[derekshank]

It is all going to come down to whether KC and SD have anything to play for. at this point, the Broncos have the tie-breaker, so things really have to break well for Cincy to get the #2 seed.

If I were an unbiased observer, I would expect the Broncos to get the #2 seed, since both teams have an easy home game, and tough road game, it is more likely than not that it end up in the tie breaker.

I don't feel slighted by anyone because of this.

[walzav29]

It shouldn't come down to a tie-breaker at all. San Diego will beat the Broncos on Saturday, and the Bengals will beat the Chiefs on Sunday. That's it. Bengals 13-3 #2 seed, Broncos 12-4 #3 seed.

[HoosierCat]

I think SD has a shot, esp. if KC keeps tackling like the way they didn't vs. the Giants. KC opened as a 1-point home favorite & that line has now moved to pick 'em per americasline.com.

Bengals ought to win...but the Bills aren't Detroit and were I betting man I would stay away from that 14 point spread. Certainly we know Holcomb can put up some numbers on our D. I think the point differential will be inside 10.

[denverbengal]

I don't think the Raiders will be easy for the Broncos either (please don't laugh). Here's what happened last year when the Raiders visited Denver.

Raiders overcome Broncos, snow 25-24

NFL.com wire reports

DENVER (Nov. 28, 2004) -- The Silver and Black looked right at home in the white stuff. Champ Bailey, Jason Elam and the rest of the Denver Broncos surely didn't.

Kerry Collins threw for 339 yards and four touchdowns to lead the Oakland Raiders to an upset in the snow, 25-24 over the Broncos.

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/recap/NFL_20041128_OAK@DEN

Denver was 7-3 going into that game and Oakland was 3-7. I'm not saying I expect a repeat, but I wouldn't be a bit surprised. The Raiders are 0-5 against their division, and as bad as they suck, it's hard to imagine them being winless for the year. This is a classic trap game for the donkeys, and they're not the most consistant team in the league.

As for the Chargers...I expect them to beat the Broncos giving us the #2 seed provided we beat the Chefs (and Jills of course).

[ShulaSteakhouse]

I think SD has a shot, esp. if KC keeps tackling like the way they didn't vs. the Giants. KC opened as a 1-point home favorite & that line has now moved to pick 'em per americasline.com.

Bengals ought to win...but the Bills aren't Detroit and were I betting man I would stay away from that 14 point spread. Certainly we know Holcomb can put up some numbers on our D. I think the point differential will be inside 10.

Agreed, I am assuming the Bengals will win either or both of their last two games - but I would certainly hope they at least win Saturday's game, but like the Browns game, it could be close.

I can't see SD losing to Denver for various reasons and it will come down to the Bengals beating KC for the #2 seed hopefully - and that will be quite tough as I don't think the Chiefs are a good match-up with the Bengals. I am afraid that game alone could kill some Bengals' confidence heading into round one if the KC offense pours it on against the Bengals' shaky defense.

[DC_Bengals_Fan]

It shouldn't come down to a tie-breaker at all. San Diego will beat the Broncos on Saturday, and the Bengals will beat the Chiefs on Sunday. That's it. Bengals 13-3 #2 seed, Broncos 12-4 #3 seed.

I'm assuming you're not a gambling man - there's certainly less than a 50% outcome of that scenario. I'd say the breakdown is:

60% Bengals and Broncos either both win or both lose

25% Bengals win more games than Broncos

15% Broncos win more games than Bengals.

So from that, I'd give the Bengals a 1 in 4 shot of a bye. Neither the Chargers nor the Bengals will be prohibitive favorites.

[GROIIIDayton]

DC I would take those odds up with you any day. I wish you were my bookie. I say that SD will almost certainly have something to play for and hope some other teams drop the ball. KC already has nothing to play for and actually even less than nothing considering I don't think (if the situation arrises) that KC will be all that excited about helping Denver into the #2 seed. SD should beat a sliding Denver team. That said I would say the odds would be more like 40% chance at the #2 spot.

[haf5er]

I think alot of people assume that it is easier to go into San Diego and win than to go to KC and win. It may depend on whether the Chiefs have anything to play for or not. Arrowhead is never an easy place to win no matter what their record.

[DC_Bengals_Fan]

DC I would take those odds up with you any day. I wish you were my bookie. I say that SD will almost certainly have something to play for and hope some other teams drop the ball. KC already has nothing to play for and actually even less than nothing considering I don't think (if the situation arrises) that KC will be all that excited about helping Denver into the #2 seed. SD should beat a sliding Denver team. That said I would say the odds would be more like 40% chance at the #2 spot.

I'd love to be your bookie, because you're case in point why fans who bet with their hearts lose money gambling.

Remember - if both teams win out, lose out, or split, Denver wins the tie. Because both teams are playing such weak teams this week, it doesn't add much to the Bengals' overall chance of getting the bye and it basically comes down to the final game. To get a bye out of this for the Bengals, you have to assume that Denver has about a 1/3 chance of beating the Chargers and the Chiefs have similarly low chance of beating the Bengals. Both of those are ludicrous in the NFL these days. I'd put SD's odds of winning closer to 55%, and the Bengals about the same. While the odds are in the Bengals' favor - slightly - for both games, the fact that *both* have to go the Bengals way hurts them.

Any bookie would be thrilled to give you even money that the Bengals get the bye, and laugh at you doing so. The situation would be different if Denver didn't have the tiebreaker. I looked at it a little closer, and I'd say the Bengals have a 1 in 3 shot. That's not bad with 2 games left,

[GROIIIDayton]

so 1 in 3 shot is you meeting me in the middle. I said 40% chance and you said 25% chance. 33% is right in the middle. Don't try to make me look dumb by posting something that makes you look dumb. Truth is I'd say Denver has a 25% (TOPS) chance of beating San Diego in San Diego with the playoffs on the line for them. I'd say the Bengals have a 75% chance of beating them considering KC will be playing for less than nothing. I'd say 40% chance we end up #2 and that is being completely fair. You would be a bad bookie.

[jditty47]

at least sd vs den is the day before we play the chiefs. we will know our fate before the game starts.

[HairOnFire]

First, I think there's a very good chance that Denver loses at least one more game, so the Bengals attaining the #2 seed is still a very realistic goal. That said, I don't understand why everyone assumes that the Chiefs won't be playing for anything. I'd bet my last dollar that they'll be very fired up and looking to play a spoiler role as payback for the Bengals upsetting them the last time the two teams played. Possibly making matters worse is the idea that prior to the final game Dick Vermiel may leak the news that he's retiring.

[HoosierCat]

I don't understand why everyone assumes that the Chiefs won't be playing for anything. I'd bet my last dollar that they'll be very fired up and looking to play a spoiler role as payback for the Bengals upsetting them the last time the two teams played.

Could be. OTOH if indeed a Bengals win would give them the No. 2 seed, that would mean that the Chiefs could screw division rival Denver by losing.

[Stripes]

I hoestly think it is MORE likely that the Bengals get the first round bye than the Broncos. They had a poll asking this very question recently on NFL.com, and the national public gave the nod to the Bengals (about 55% to 45%). Our game against the Chiefs should certainly be close, but that is a game that we can and should win. The Broncos will have it much tougher in San Diego the day before. The tiebreaker scenario will not matter if they can't win out and we do.

[membengal]

"Can and should win"??????

I think people here are taking the Chiefs WAY too lightly. Particualrly in Arrowhead. Look back a few weeks to the absolute shellacking they laid on New England, and take a second look at how potent their offense is and what a stud Larry Johnson is. I fervantly hope they lose this week and are playing for nothing but pride next week, but even then, that will NOT be an easy game. Not ever sure the Bengals would be favored by more than a point or two in that situation.

[Jonboat]

First, I think there's a very good chance that Denver loses at least one more game, so the Bengals attaining the #2 seed is still a very realistic goal. That said, I don't understand why everyone assumes that the Chiefs won't be playing for anything. I'd bet my last dollar that they'll be very fired up and looking to play a spoiler role as payback for the Bengals upsetting them the last time the two teams played. Possibly making matters worse is the idea that prior to the final game Dick Vermiel may leak the news that he's retiring.

Good point I never considered the Vermiel angle. I definately think we have a very good shot @ the # 2 seed, it isn't far fetched to think SD can beat the Broncos especially after seeing them beat up the Colts.