2014 Prediction

[COB]

While i'm not about to compare Dalton's feet to what Kaepernick brings to the table, I think it's a little off to make the statement that he can't run the ball.

You are right. He is a better runner than I am giving him credit for. Once he gets out of the pocket he can do some damage. In my opinion his problem is getting out of the pocket. He either waits too long or just can't get going quickly enough to escape.

My true bias against trying to run Dalton is a result of the psychological damage I received watching him play in the second half of the playoff game against the Chargers. That unforced fumble is burned into my brain.

I think much of this was scheme. Gruden had so much happening, with prescribed targets, it felt like Dalton had very little he could take under his own direction. It never felt like they made great reads based on coverages or alignments. Lots of forcing throws and locking on primary targets, very little adjustment or playmaking when things didn't quite work out.

If the run game is potent, and if Dalton can handle making the reads to hit the best matchup, or where a breakdown occurs, then they can prosper. It's when he is forced to throw with elite accuracy, to the designated primary receiver no matter the matchup/coverage, then we will see him be inconsistent. Most would be.

Maybe the reason Gruden prescribed so much of the targeting/reads is because that's not a Dalton strength, and he knew it?

One thing is for sure is that by not having made gameplan adjustments and being predictable v SD in the playoff game, they really blew it big time. That's on Gruden more than anyone. That's the arrogance of a "We will play our style football and make them beat us", rather than, "They won't know what hit them". With the talent on Offense, its nuts they couldn't have a better gameplan.

Gruden sucked gameplanning playoff games. Your point above is well-taken, then pile on with the game he designed the gameplan around Gresham and used AJ as a decoy. Gresham had anvils for hands that day, but Gruden never went away from it or tried to switch it up. Then Gresham had to go through some kind of life-changing reevaluation of himself he was so shattered by his huge flop. (Disclaimer - Nothing in the above-referenced post should in any way be construed to indicate that the author blames any person, partnership, or corporation for 3 consecutive Bengals playoff games that resembled, in order, Little Bighorn, Pearl Harbor, and Fredericksburg. Blame for all 3 lies squarely on Andy Dalton, as evidenced by marks on the driveway where author repeatedly bashed his snow shovel into the pavement in frustration.)

[HoosierCat]

Bovada, via Harvey:

Over/under win totals

Bengals: 9

Steelers: 8.5

Ravens: 8.5

Browns: 6.5

Odds to win the AFC North

Bengals: 2/1

Steelers: 2/1

Ravens: 5/2

Browns: 5/1

[kingwilly]

If they have mostly "Good Andy" it could be 11 or 12 wins, if its mostly "Bad Andy" it could be 5 or 6 wins.

So goes Andy, so goes this team.

[kingwilly]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nfl/news/20140528/cincinnati-bengals-marvin-lewis-andy-dalton/

Also, and reported by Josh Kirk, ML hints at size of deal they are offering Andy. Basically, a guaranteed number right on or near Cutler's.

The world has gone crazy. Even Cutler does not deserve Cutler level money. Dalton most certainly does not.

Excuse me while I go pull my son from 6th grade science and enroll him in the nearest QB academy..... BRB.

[COB]

I may actually grab some of that 5/1 on the Browns. If Hoyer comes back healthy and can keep his job in the face of Manziel mania, I think the number on them is more like 2.5/1. They were good when Hoyer played, and they've got some really talented players.

Steelers need a walker, Ravens seem on the verge of blowing it up, if it isn't already considered blown up, and we're going with a new OC and a new DC. Might be a good year for the Browns.

[kingwilly]

I may actually grab some of that 5/1 on the Browns. If Hoyer comes back healthy and can keep his job in the face of Manziel mania, I think the number on them is more like 2.5/1. They were good when Hoyer played, and they've got some really talented players.

Steelers need a walker, Ravens seem on the verge of blowing it up, if it isn't already considered blown up, and we're going with a new OC and a new DC. Might be a good year for the Browns.

Not this year. Gordon is out. That, and too many new parts to get working together (coaches, too).

Give the Browns a year and they will be formidable.

[COB]

Really surprising to me to hear Marvin reference Cutler's contract like that. Sometimes Marvin is a pretty open and honest guy.

[HoosierCat]

I read the Marvin quote as saying that Cutler's deal is the sticking point, something the have to "get by" (in the Bengals' opinion, of course). That would fit with what else we have heard this offseason: that Dalton wants closer to $20 million and the Bengals are closer to $15 million. At (effectively) $18 million a year (for the first three years, everything beyond that in Jay's deal he won't see unless he wins 3 straight super bowls IMHO) that's slightly toward the Dalton end of the scale.

To me, that suggests Andy has come down and now the Bengals are trying to pry him off that $18 million mark. I don't think the difference feels like enough to fight over, but our boy Mike never saw a rock he didn't like to squeeze.

[TJJackson]

or an oxcart that wouldn't look best in a ditch

[cincyhokie]

I read the Marvin quote as saying that Cutler's deal is the sticking point, something the have to "get by" (in the Bengals' opinion, of course). That would fit with what else we have heard this offseason: that Dalton wants closer to $20 million and the Bengals are closer to $15 million.

I think Marv and Co. should call the Bears and find out what's going on. I wonder if Cutler's deal is being slowed down because they are waiting on Dalton's deal?

Who's on first?

[kingwilly]

I read the Marvin quote as saying that Cutler's deal is the sticking point, something the have to "get by" (in the Bengals' opinion, of course). That would fit with what else we have heard this offseason: that Dalton wants closer to $20 million and the Bengals are closer to $15 million. At (effectively) $18 million a year (for the first three years, everything beyond that in Jay's deal he won't see unless he wins 3 straight super bowls IMHO) that's slightly toward the Dalton end of the scale.

To me, that suggests Andy has come down and now the Bengals are trying to pry him off that $18 million mark. I don't think the difference feels like enough to fight over, but our boy Mike never saw a rock he didn't like to squeeze.

Two ways to read it:

"get by" means they need to exceed, as in go past in the dollars (total or per year or guaranteed). Here, ML would be implying the Bengals need to increase the parameters to exceed an aspect of the Cutler deal. (I'd be surprised if ML meant it this way, because it would imply he see the Bengals taking things on the cheap)

Or

"get by" means they need to set the Cutler deal aside and not use it as direct reference crafting a deal. Meaning a deal for Dalton needs to reflect the situation and team, rather than the incremental progress that contracts take (give each next QB more dollars than the last QB who signed a deal).

The whole thing feels like Dalton's camp is propped on these fluffy "one of only 3 QBs EVER" stats to justify the contract levels, thus playing down the abject horror Dalton produces when the cards don't fall properly and he's asked to carry things and manufacture a win.

It goes without saying that I don't think Dalton is worth the $17-20M/yr, and its crazy to lock him up to that kind of coin (cap regardless, market regardless) because it effctively means we're stuck with him for another 2-4 years. And if it turns out his ceiling is no higher, and there's not much more progress to be made, then the window of opportunity to win with this roster will have all but been used up. I see that as a huge strategic error, and a massive lost opportunity for the Bengals to maybe win a SB.

[cincyhokie]

Again, any rational fan will ask this question. If the Bengals are going to be throwing the ball less and running it more, why do you need to pay your QB more? Get a guy who can be a good game manager and spend a lot less leaving room for other players and other needs. No need to break the bank on a QB who is being asked to take a step down in his in game the expectations of his ability to "carry" this team.

[HoosierCat]

It goes without saying that I don't think Dalton is worth the $17-20M/yr, and its crazy to lock him up to that kind of coin (cap regardless, market regardless) because it effctively means we're stuck with him for another 2-4 years. And if it turns out his ceiling is no higher, and there's not much more progress to be made, then the window of opportunity to win with this roster will have all but been used up.

The same thing can be said for switching horses after this season. Unless they get insanely lucky with the next QB, whoever he is, 2016 is the earliest they could realistically contend. If they weren't going to pay Dalton -- and I'm sure they have known his asking price for a while -- then the time to move on was this year.

As far as Dalton's price tag goes, I was reading something the other (not sure where) that was talking about Alex Smith and the Chiefs. The point was made, and I agree with it, that when it comes to paying QBs there's no such thing as a mid-tier. It's franchise dollars or nothing. It's just the nature of the QB-driven league: either he's your guy or he's not. And that makes cases like Smith and Dalton difficult. Like I said before, I think that in the end a deal gets done...but these are the Bengals we're talking about, so you never know.

[kingwilly]

It goes without saying that I don't think Dalton is worth the $17-20M/yr, and its crazy to lock him up to that kind of coin (cap regardless, market regardless) because it effctively means we're stuck with him for another 2-4 years. And if it turns out his ceiling is no higher, and there's not much more progress to be made, then the window of opportunity to win with this roster will have all but been used up.

The same thing can be said for switching horses after this season. Unless they get insanely lucky with the next QB, whoever he is, 2016 is the earliest they could realistically contend. If they weren't going to pay Dalton -- and I'm sure they have known his asking price for a while -- then the time to move on was this year.

As far as Dalton's price tag goes, I was reading something the other (not sure where) that was talking about Alex Smith and the Chiefs. The point was made, and I agree with it, that when it comes to paying QBs there's no such thing as a mid-tier. It's franchise dollars or nothing. It's just the nature of the QB-driven league: either he's your guy or he's not. And that makes cases like Smith and Dalton difficult. Like I said before, I think that in the end a deal gets done...but these are the Bengals we're talking about, so you never know.

I agree but then its essentially a philosophy we are talking about. IF we are gonna get married to Dalton, and we know he's only "average", that recognition will impact every pother position around him to hopefully shore up his deficiency.

Same to say, if you have elite CB's, you can get by with average DE's, or vice versa.

To let the string play out, and risk taking a new QB next year means the idea of paying top shelf $ to an average guy is not palatable. In fact, it sets a poor tone for the whole of the team. These players know how good Dalton is or isn't. They see him make crazy bank for being "OK" could be a negative.

Look, if the model for this offense is to have a decent, adequate guy to "manage" the offense they don't need to pay $18-20M to do it. They have a guy in Campbell (who incidentally has a far better arm), who they can pay $5-8M/yr and "manage" the O for a couple of years until they can find a real Elite level guy (by draft or FA). In Hue's O, I bet Campbell and Dalton would be indistinguishable. So why overpay?

Heck, a guy like Freeman has far better tools than Dalton and was on the cusp of inclusion in the "Elite" level in the NFL until Schiano botched up his progress ad opportunity. Why tether to Dalton when a guy like that could be here?

It feels like settling. I don't like the idea of settling.

I also don't think Dalton is going to grow into a Rogers or Brees kind of QB, ever.

I see no sense doing a deal with Dalton at the level they are implying, because simply paying a guy "Elite" money does not make a guy "Elite".

[HoosierCat]

To let the string play out, and risk taking a new QB next year means the idea of paying top shelf $ to an average guy is not palatable.

Well, that's the core of the problem: none of the various alternatives are very tasty. Whatever they do -- sign him, don't sign him, wait another year and see, dump him and start over right now -- has the potential to blow up in their faces. (In fact, I'll bet that whatever they finally do, it absolutely will blow up in their face, just because that seems to be how it always turns out in Cincy. The football gods hate us.) But whatever they do, IMHO they need to man up and do it ASAP because the paralysis their indecision has led to this offseason is threatening to become worse than make the wrong call (whatever that turns out to be) on Dalton.

[Walrus]

To let the string play out, and risk taking a new QB next year means the idea of paying top shelf $ to an average guy is not palatable.

Well, that's the core of the problem: none of the various alternatives are very tasty. Whatever they do -- sign him, don't sign him, wait another year and see, dump him and start over right now -- has the potential to blow up in their faces. (In fact, I'll bet that whatever they finally do, it absolutely will blow up in their face, just because that seems to be how it always turns out in Cincy. The football gods hate us.) But whatever they do, IMHO they need to man up and do it ASAP because the paralysis their indecision has led to this offseason is threatening to become worse than make the wrong call (whatever that turns out to be) on Dalton.

But ... the only "ASAP" option seems to be to throw a boatload of money at Dalton?? It doesn't sound like he's willing to settle for less.

On the other hand, they could certainly make some good progress beyond the seeming "paralysis" and show how they reward good play by throwing 'Tez a bone! Pay the man!

[Walrus]

Look, if the model for this offense is to have a decent, adequate guy to "manage" the offense they don't need to pay $18-20M to do it. They have a guy in Campbell (who incidentally has a far better arm), who they can pay $5-8M/yr and "manage" the O for a couple of years until they can find a real Elite level guy (by draft or FA). In Hue's O, I bet Campbell and Dalton would be indistinguishable. So why overpay?

Heck, a guy like Freeman has far better tools than Dalton and was on the cusp of inclusion in the "Elite" level in the NFL until Schiano botched up his progress ad opportunity. Why tether to Dalton when a guy like that could be here?

It feels like settling. I don't like the idea of settling.

I also don't think Dalton is going to grow into a Rogers or Brees kind of QB, ever.

I see no sense doing a deal with Dalton at the level they are implying, because simply paying a guy "Elite" money does not make a guy "Elite".

Funny you should mention Freeman. A guy very much like that just showed up on the waiver wire...

/>http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/05/30/giants-release-josh-freeman/

[HoosierCat]

To let the string play out, and risk taking a new QB next year means the idea of paying top shelf $ to an average guy is not palatable.

Well, that's the core of the problem: none of the various alternatives are very tasty. Whatever they do -- sign him, don't sign him, wait another year and see, dump him and start over right now -- has the potential to blow up in their faces. (In fact, I'll bet that whatever they finally do, it absolutely will blow up in their face, just because that seems to be how it always turns out in Cincy. The football gods hate us.) But whatever they do, IMHO they need to man up and do it ASAP because the paralysis their indecision has led to this offseason is threatening to become worse than make the wrong call (whatever that turns out to be) on Dalton.

But ... the only "ASAP" option seems to be to throw a boatload of money at Dalton?? It doesn't sound like he's willing to settle for less.

On the other hand, they could certainly make some good progress beyond the seeming "paralysis" and show how they reward good play by throwing 'Tez a bone! Pay the man! :cheers:/>

Exactly. If they aren't going to pay Dalton, they should move to nail down Burfict and Green ASAP. My call to just go ahead and pay Dalton is based in part on the idea that they have already dithered past the point of no return. I know there's something of a sunk costs fallacy in that view, but in any case it would be better if they quit sinking.

As for the boatload of money, I'd guess that it's less about total money than the guarantee. Cutler got $54 million guaranteed. In team history, the Bengals have only given out two contracts over $54 million total (Palmer and Atkins), never mind guaranteed. Geno got "just" $15 million guaranteed on his $55 million deal last year, and back in 2005 when Palmer signed his mega-deal, he got $15 million to sign and another $9 million on a guaranteed option in January 2007 for a total of $24 million. And that was on a deal that covered the next 9 seasons.

I can't see Mike Brown giving anyone $54 million guaranteed.

[TJJackson]

The Bengals have every right to say: Cutler won a playoff game (divisional round vs seahawks in 2010)

Dalton's agents will say: but it was just one game!

The Bengals response should then be: and if Ginger had won "just one" of those games, we might well be talking about Cutler type money. But he didn't, and so we aren't

I think the Bengals should stick to their guns and work out a deal in the 14M/Y range, and if Dalton just cant manage to get by on money like that, well, time for plan B: franchise him next year, extend Campbell, develop Mr Katherine Webb and/or a first round QB from the 2015 draft, and wave buh-bye after the 2015 season

This QB needs to realize he needs a top end line and top end skill players to succeed, and those players cost money too, money we wont have available if we pay him like the elite QB that he isn't

[cincyhokie]

The Bengals have every right to say: Cutler won a playoff game (divisional round vs seahawks in 2010)

Dalton's agents will say: but it was just one game!

The Bengals response should then be: and if Ginger had won "just one" of those games, we might well be talking about Cutler type money. But he didn't, and so we aren't

I think the Bengals should stick to their guns and work out a deal in the 14M/Y range, and if Dalton just cant manage to get by on money like that, well, time for plan B: franchise him next year, extend Campbell, develop Mr Katherine Webb and/or a first round QB from the 2015 draft, and wave buh-bye after the 2015 season

This QB needs to realize he needs a top end line and top end skill players to succeed, and those players cost money too, money we wont have available if we pay him like the elite QB that he isn't

^^^^^ The Truth!!!

[kingwilly]

The Bengals have every right to say: Cutler won a playoff game (divisional round vs seahawks in 2010)

Dalton's agents will say: but it was just one game!

The Bengals response should then be: and if Ginger had won "just one" of those games, we might well be talking about Cutler type money. But he didn't, and so we aren't

I think the Bengals should stick to their guns and work out a deal in the 14M/Y range, and if Dalton just cant manage to get by on money like that, well, time for plan B: franchise him next year, extend Campbell, develop Mr Katherine Webb and/or a first round QB from the 2015 draft, and wave buh-bye after the 2015 season

This QB needs to realize he needs a top end line and top end skill players to succeed, and those players cost money too, money we wont have available if we pay him like the elite QB that he isn't

Yes, this.

Make a fair offer and then move on to focus on Tez and Green, even start working on deals for Fat Andre and the list of guys who'll be coming due soon. Marvin Jones wouldn't be bad to tie down. They need to decide if they want to retain the services of Gresham.

So, much ado about nothing. Dalton and his agents can keep pointing to a whole bunch of data about his performances but they are rooted in having a truly elite D backing him up, and quite a few serious offensive weapons that boosted his abilities, all during an era where the game is slanted towards protecting QB's and receivers.

I find it funny that ML is so set on Dalton.

[HoosierCat]

Well, if they aren't going to re-sign Andy, I hope they make it clear soon so I can quit wasting time here.

[cincyhokie]

Hobson on 1530 talking about the contract offer being performance incentive heavy. Might be the reason for the hold up.

[COB]

I'm ok with Andy's contract being full of incentive clauses. Perform, get paid. He's earned that, and I don't mean that in a good way.

His agent would be crazy to agree to that. Get the guaranteed cash, or play it out and get tagged or jump. The market for Andy will be significant if he plays well this season. It's a Flacco situation, he gambled and won, and Andy can too.

[TJJackson]

Hobson on 1530 talking about the contract offer being performance incentive heavy. Might be the reason for the hold up.

what, stuff like "win a playoff game"?

who woulda think it