Bengals 2014

[cincyhokie]

Need a playoff win for success.

For the record, I think they miss the playoffs entirely.

I agree. At this point. I see 8-8 and no playoffs. There's a balance of "letting things come to you" and being proactive. The Bengals haven't figured that out yet. This team is a couple of solid players from being a SB contender in the window they are in now. To take the next step, you have to be proactive.

With teams changing year to year, sitting back means you are going down. Tough schedule. Tough AFCN. Not happening this season, IMO.

[HoosierCat]

Need a playoff win for success.

For the record, I think they miss the playoffs entirely.

I agree. At this point. I see 8-8 and no playoffs. There's a balance of "letting things come to you" and being proactive. The Bengals haven't figured that out yet. This team is a couple of solid players from being a SB contender in the window they are in now. To take the next step, you have to be proactive.

With teams changing year to year, sitting back means you are going down. Tough schedule. Tough AFCN. Not happening this season, IMO.

Maybe, maybe not. The good news, such as it is, is that many other teams are arguably unimproved or even worse than last year at this point. Just for fun I used teh google to pull up five of those "free agency winners and losers" articles and compared the lists to our schedule. What I found:

Clear winners (3 or more mentions out of 5): Tampa Bay, Denver, New England

Marginal winners (1-2 mentions): Atlanta, Baltimore, Cleveland

Neither winners nor losers (0 mentions): Houston, Indianapolis, New Orleans, Jacksonville

Marginal losers (1-2 mentions): Baltimore, Cleveland, Tennessee (and Cincinnati)

Clear losers (3+ mentions): Carolina, Pittsburgh

It seems to boil down to whether you think Cleveland and Baltimore are better now than they were at the end of last season. I would say Baltimore is, marginally. Cleveland, like Tampa, is a clear winner by virtue of spending a boatload of cash, but it remains to be seen if that means more wins.

[cincyhokie]

Need a playoff win for success.

For the record, I think they miss the playoffs entirely.

I agree. At this point. I see 8-8 and no playoffs. There's a balance of "letting things come to you" and being proactive. The Bengals haven't figured that out yet. This team is a couple of solid players from being a SB contender in the window they are in now. To take the next step, you have to be proactive.

With teams changing year to year, sitting back means you are going down. Tough schedule. Tough AFCN. Not happening this season, IMO.

Maybe, maybe not. The good news, such as it is, is that many other teams are arguably unimproved or even worse than last year at this point. Just for fun I used teh google to pull up five of those "free agency winners and losers" articles and compared the lists to our schedule. What I found:

Clear winners (3 or more mentions out of 5): Tampa Bay, Denver, New England

Marginal winners (1-2 mentions): Atlanta, Baltimore, Cleveland

Neither winners nor losers (0 mentions): Houston, Indianapolis, New Orleans, Jacksonville

Marginal losers (1-2 mentions): Baltimore, Cleveland, Tennessee (and Cincinnati)

Clear losers (3+ mentions): Carolina, Pittsburgh

It seems to boil down to whether you think Cleveland and Baltimore are better now than they were at the end of last season. I would say Baltimore is, marginally. Cleveland, like Tampa, is a clear winner by virtue of spending a boatload of cash, but it remains to be seen if that means more wins.

Was Seattle a winner when they added key depth in FA on the way to the SB?

[HoosierCat]

Was Seattle a winner when they added key depth in FA on the way to the SB?

Well, they were according to Rosenthal. Of course, he also had Detroit, Atlanta and Philly in the same group, so at best he went 2-2. And his losers were the Saints (wild card team) and Cardinals (missed the playoffs at 10-6). But hey, I have to give him props over this boob at USA Today, whose 2013 FA winners included Cleveland, Jacksonville and Oakland!

At this point I don't think the Bengals have done enough to be considered a threat to win the Super Bowl. But at this point I also don't think they have any worse shot at the postseason than they did going into last year.

[cincyhokie]

Was Seattle a winner when they added key depth in FA on the way to the SB?

Well, they were according to Rosenthal. Of course, he also had Detroit, Atlanta and Philly in the same group, so at best he went 2-2. And his losers were the Saints (wild card team) and Cardinals (missed the playoffs at 10-6). But hey, I have to give him props over this boob at USA Today, whose 2013 FA winners included Cleveland, Jacksonville and Oakland!

At this point I don't think the Bengals have done enough to be considered a threat to win the Super Bowl. But at this point I also don't think they have any worse shot at the postseason than they did going into last year.

Fair enough, but I think the schedule gets them this season. It's tough, tougher than last year.

[HoosierCat]

Not worth a new thread so I'll put this here: interesting piece at FO on sacks:

/>http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2014/2013-quarterbacks-true-sack-rate

The one thing that really caught my eye was the correlation of interception percentage to QB success. Basically, there isn't any. That surprised me, but I do recall looking at the Bengals' QB page of profootball-reference a few weeks ago and being surprised that Dalton's career interception percentage is actually better than both Kenny's and Boomers's.

You can see the impact of the get-the-ball-out-quick strategy in 2013. Dalton went from a 7.76% sack rate to 4.69% last season.

[cincyhokie]

Not worth a new thread so I'll put this here: interesting piece at FO on sacks:

/>http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2014/2013-quarterbacks-true-sack-rate

The one thing that really caught my eye was the correlation of interception percentage to QB success. Basically, there isn't any. That surprised me, but I do recall looking at the Bengals' QB page of profootball-reference a few weeks ago and being surprised that Dalton's career interception percentage is actually better than both Kenny's and Boomers's.

You can see the impact of the get-the-ball-out-quick strategy in 2013. Dalton went from a 7.76% sack rate to 4.69% last season.

If Dalton can learn how to consistently play better versus good defenses in pressure situations, he'll be an awesome QB. He's got the tools.

I know he is doing work with a sports psychologist that worked with Brady, and some other good players. I think it's a good decision to do that.

[HoosierCat]

If Dalton can learn how to consistently play better versus good defenses in pressure situations, he'll be an awesome QB. He's got the tools.

Yeah, that was another weird thing about the numbers. You would think that QBs under a lot of pressure would be bad and indeed the bottom of the list is pretty grim. But a relative lack of pressure doesn't guarantee success. The top of the list is a mixed bag. Most of the "elite" QBs fall in the middle. I would say that overall Dalton's place on this list is a significant strike against him, but I think it's mitigated somewhat by the quick-fire scheme. In other words, I don't think the o-line is quite as good as it gets credit for here.

But that said, yeah, Andy needs to up his game in the face of pressure.

ETA: OK, that was pretty funny.

[Scottishbengal]

but I think it's mitigated somewhat by the quick-fire scheme. In other words, I don't think the o-line is quite as good as it gets credit for here.

Perhaps the coaches went quick-fire release beacuse they know the O-Line is lacking/suspect ...... ?????

[gregcook68]

What if Dalton gets signed before the season starts like Lewis wants? How does that change things............or does it?

[Walrus]

What if Dalton gets signed before the season starts like Lewis wants? How does that change things............or does it?

Then it would be a really bad time for him to take a step back in his development. If they sign him to a big extension based on the idea that he's going to continue to develop and he starts to look like he has peaked, that will be a huge problem. On the other hand, if he keeps up the "Good Andy" and cuts back some on the "Bad Andy" then that will be a big part of a successful 2014 for the whole team.

If they don't sign him before the season, that leaves more room in case of a step back for Andy. That way, if he does indeed have a good season where he shows improvement - most importantly by marshalling at least 1 playoff victory - he will deserve the elite paycheck he seems to be seeking. And if he falls on his @$$, I will consider it a success that we have not shackled the team to his massive contract for an extended period.

[gregcook68]

What if Dalton gets signed before the season starts like Lewis wants? How does that change things............or does it?

Then it would be a really bad time for him to take a step back in his development. If they sign him to a big extension based on the idea that he's going to continue to develop and he starts to look like he has peaked, that will be a huge problem. On the other hand, if he keeps up the "Good Andy" and cuts back some on the "Bad Andy" then that will be a big part of a successful 2014 for the whole team.

If they don't sign him before the season, that leaves more room in case of a step back for Andy. That way, if he does indeed have a good season where he shows improvement - most importantly by marshalling at least 1 playoff victory - he will deserve the elite paycheck he seems to be seeking. And if he falls on his @$$, I will consider it a success that we have not shackled the team to his massive contract for an extended period.

Do you believe that 'any'of the 'bad Andy' can be attributed to Gruden? If so,how much can be eliminated by a more balanced offense that Jackson wants to run?

[ArmyBengal]

I will say it again, QB's are going to get paid any way around. Dalton is going to get paid.

The question is when and how much, but to think it's going to be some bargain basement deal is a pipe dream.

[HoosierCat]

Do you believe that 'any'of the 'bad Andy' can be attributed to Gruden? If so,how much can be eliminated by a more balanced offense that Jackson wants to run?

I think we will find out that part of Andy's problems lay with Jay's playcalling. Throwing the ball 50+ times a game is not a recipe for NFL success.

That said, you can't blame Gruden for shakiness under pressure, poor decision-making and unforced fumbles, all of which we've seen from Dalton. I believe he has made progress on those fronts since his rookie year, but he still needs to up his game.

At a guess, I would say Dalton's issues were 25% playcalling, 15% poor play from others on the offense and 60% on Andy. Gotta work on that 60%.

[Walrus]

I will say it again, QB's are going to get paid any way around. Dalton is going to get paid.

The question is when and how much, but to think it's going to be some bargain basement deal is a pipe dream.

Yeah. As much pressure as there is to draft the "right" QB, missing on a QB in the draft these days is probably half the trouble as giving a second contract to the wrong guy. Rookie contracts enable teams to get to see what he's made of over the course of several years of play.

Since, by definition, any non-rookie starting QB will be paid big bucks, it is vital for the team to have 100% confidence this is the guy they want to hitch the wagon to. I'm not 100% sold on Andy yet. Far more importantly, I don't think Mike Brown is 100% sold on him. For that reason, I don't think they should do a contract until after the season.

[gregcook68]

Do you believe that 'any'of the 'bad Andy' can be attributed to Gruden? If so,how much can be eliminated by a more balanced offense that Jackson wants to run?

I think we will find out that part of Andy's problems lay with Jay's playcalling. Throwing the ball 50+ times a game is not a recipe for NFL success.

That said, you can't blame Gruden for shakiness under pressure, poor decision-making and unforced fumbles, all of which we've seen from Dalton. I believe he has made progress on those fronts since his rookie year, but he still needs to up his game.

At a guess, I would say Dalton's issues were 25% playcalling, 15% poor play from others on the offense and 60% on Andy. Gotta work on that 60%.

As far as interceptions go, I agree with Phil Simms, if a QB is throwing the football aggressively, interceptions will happen. I think cutting his attempts down to 20-30 like Russell Wilson will help keep that number down.

Game on the line interceptions are crucial as we have seen 2 years in a row with Kapernick and with Peyton in 2012 against Baltimore.

(BTW I think if Denver beats Baltimore they beat SF in SB or at least have a much better chance than they did against Seattle.)

I think Dalton's biggest area of improvement that needs to happen is psychological.

He seems to win the season games needed to win to MAKE the playoffs.

He's actually at the same point Matt Ryan was in 2012.

Of course I thought after getting his first playoff win would push him over the top which hasn't seemed to happen, although the Bengals have a better defense than the Falcons did.

Time will tell.

[Scottishbengal]

He seems to win the season games needed to win to MAKE the playoffs.

My memory may be wrong here but when we had a chance to win to take the 2nd seed place didn't we fold vs Pittsburgh with Dalton completing only just over half of his attempts ???

[gregcook68]

He seems to win the season games needed to win to MAKE the playoffs.

My memory may be wrong here but when we had a chance to win to take the 2nd seed place didn't we fold vs Pittsburgh with Dalton completing only just over half of his attempts ???

Your memory is fine. That's the same game that the special teams played horrible with a bad snap, a confused fair catch call, and losing their punter with thug Steeler play!

[redsbengalsbucks]

He seems to win the season games needed to win to MAKE the playoffs.

My memory may be wrong here but when we had a chance to win to take the 2nd seed place didn't we fold vs Pittsburgh with Dalton completing only just over half of his attempts ???

Your memory is fine. That's the same game that the special teams played horrible with a bad snap, a confused fair catch call, and losing their punter with thug Steeler play!

Yes just as the playoff games are concerned, the bad play is not confined to Dalton alone. I consider the playoff loss two years ago all on Gresham and Chuckie Jr.'s shoulders.

[ArmyBengal]

There's plenty of blame to go around for those losses and I certainly won't take any of that from Dalton's shoulders.

That being said, i'm just really looking forward to how Hue goes about making the changes he speaks about making.

I'm wondering what that translates to on the field with Dalton and his passing attempts.

[cincyhokie]

This is all really simple. QB's are paid the big dollars to win. They get overly praised when they win and too much criticism when they lose.

Dalton has yet to show consistency in big games against better defenses. It's nothing more than that.

If he wants to get paid more then the Bengals need to win in big situation despite some fluky plays, bad weather, bad refereeing, etc.

[ArmyBengal]

This is all really simple. QB's are paid the big dollars to win period.

I love the strikethrough option to make a point.

I know what you and everyone else are saying Hokie, but the point is, QB's get paid.

There's a long list of QB's that haven't done shit and are breaking the bank.

Don't get me wrong, I don't want the Bengals to put themselves in a situation where they can't get other players taken care of due to Dalton's contract, but for anyone to think he won't be the highest paid player on the team is nonsense. It's like because people don't like him, he should sign a deal making vet minimum or something (I know no one said that).

Again, i'm totally ok with the Bengals waiting until after the season and see where they are when 2014 is all said and done.

If at that point they feel they need to move on, then so be it.

[cincyhokie]

This is all really simple. QB's are paid the big dollars to win period.

I love the strikethrough option to make a point.

I know what you and everyone else are saying Hokie, but the point is, QB's get paid.

There's a long list of QB's that haven't done shit and are breaking the bank.

Don't get me wrong, I don't want the Bengals to put themselves in a situation where they can't get other players taken care of due to Dalton's contract, but for anyone to think he won't be the highest paid player on the team is nonsense. It's like because people don't like him, he should sign a deal making vet minimum or something (I know no one said that).

Again, i'm totally ok with the Bengals waiting until after the season and see where they are when 2014 is all said and done.

If at that point they feel they need to move on, then so be it.

Yeah, I agree with that. Though QB's are given deserved criticism when it's not ALL their fault and more praise when it's not ALL their doing. It goes with the job. The Dalton apologists are as bad as the Dalton critics. He's neither terrible or without blame.

The guy has nice numbers but this isn't the same game it has been in the past 10-20 years. He's been prone to shit the bed since he got here. Just win when the season is on the line and people will stop talking about your shortcomings.

[gregcook68]

This is all really simple. QB's are paid the big dollars to win. They get overly praised when they win and too much criticism when they lose.

Dalton has yet to show consistency in big games against better defenses. It's nothing more than that.

If he wants to get paid more then the Bengals need to win in big situation despite some fluky plays, bad weather, bad refereeing, etc.

If Lewis has his way, he will get signed period. At that point the Bengals can only trade him away

[gregcook68]

There's plenty of blame to go around for those losses and I certainly won't take any of that from Dalton's shoulders.

That being said, i'm just really looking forward to how Hue goes about making the changes he speaks about making.

I'm wondering what that translates to on the field with Dalton and his passing attempts.

I agree 100% with you Army. I believe Hue can make or break.