thedon Posted October 8, 2011 Report Share Posted October 8, 2011 By DonCanabis/TheDonAnalyst/GodfatherWeek 4 was as perfect as a week can go. Finally, all the stars aligned and games went on as predicted. I hope some of my readers made some money last week. I already heard from a few. Had a whopping 81% overall correct picks last week. Hope to see a repeat.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Quick Hits Aaron Rodgers is playing on a different level. It really doesn’t come close. He’s making it look effortless, just easy. He had an amazing playoff-run last year that culminated with the Super Bowl win, but at the level he’s playing right now, the precision of his throws and game management, he’s making that playoff run look like amateur hour! It’s always hard to have a repeat in this league but right now, no team looks even close.I really dislike all the player protection rules the NFL inputs every year without making any real analysis of what the implications would be. I’ve written about this many times, playing as a DE all my life all the way through college, it really strikes a nerve. But right now, there’s no rule that’s rubbing me the wrong way more than the "defenseless receiver" one. The new rule that allows a WR to catch the ball and make a move to protect himself before a defender can hit him.I’m all up for protecting players for helmets hits and defenders launching with their helmets to get a big hit and probably provoke an injury. But what this new rule is doing is taking away the aggression a defense must have because it’s not only the penalties players are getting for clean shoulder hits that cost the defense 15 yards and most likely will give out points. But the $20,000 fines they’re getting for them. This is making players doubt themselves and letting WRs catch passes in front of them, there’s a complete link on how lopsided the passing yards have gone up this year in relation to this rule. No longer small WRs have a fear to go into the middle of a defense like they used to, now they roam free. Mr. Goodell, I’m all about protection but don’t take away the essence of the game. You don’t need 50 point scores to make a game exciting, a good clean hit can be as exciting as a big TD. Just let the defenses Play.Tony Romo: Man this kid doesn’t know how to be in the middle. It’s only highs and lows with this guy. Every week it appears he’s either the Goat or the Hero. I’ve said it before: that’s what you get with him. He is a very good QB who can do the most unrealistic thing and win your team a game that you had no reason to win, but he can also turn a dominating performance into a loss. I just can't grasp how he can look flawless for 3 quarters and then completely dismantle and make boneheaded plays one after another. Completely baffles me the biggest question we all have is will he ever get it or will these rollercoaster rides be his whole career?I had the perfect week! It has to be ranked as one of my best ever prediction weekends. I went 13-3 in all 3 categories for a crazy 81% overall. I made over $2,500 last weekend making my 2011 earnings a little over $3,000 just a great start. Overall for the season I’m at 64% and in 3rd place in the league, with a 63% record against the Spread and 61% against the Over/under." The Goat of the Week" I have to go with Ronnie Brown. Romo deserved his own spot but you can’t ignore or forget Brown’s play. Nobody know what went through his mind while he tried to throw that ill-advised pass that turned into a fumble as he was being tackled in the goal line in the third quarter. That has to be ranked as one of the dumbest plays ever.On to the games New Orleans at Carolina 6.5 Ovr/Und 52.5Cam Newton has surpassed any expectations and has played toe-to-toe against some of the best teams out there. Gregg Williams’ defense can create a lot of turnovers but at the same time can give away a lot of points. This could possibly be a trap game for the Saints as they tend to lose these types of games. What you can expect is a close game because all four of Cam’s games have ended with 7 or less point margin. So take the points on this one and I recommend a +6 teaser for Carolina on this one.Straight: NOSpread: CAROvr/Und: OVRTennessee at Pittsburgh -3 Ovr/Und 39.5UPSET OF THE WEEK On paper, this game looks a lot closer than it should. Ben sprained his foot last week; he’ll still play, but behind that dreadful O-line can be a very bad idea. There’s a chance Mendenhall won’t be able to play this week with a hamstring injury. Add to that Chris Johnson finally showed signs of life. If we take into account that the Steelers defense is 25th against the run and they’re clearly suffering from the losing the Super Bowl curse, I like the upset. Straight: TENSpread:TENOvr/Und: UND Kansas City at Indianapolis -2.5 Ovr/Und 38.5Indianapolis has looked better since Painter took over, and by "better" I mean at least I can watch the game. This looks like a perfect matchup for the Colts to get out of that 0-4 record. The Chiefs don’t play well on the road, plus that Oline is having lots of trouble protecting Cassel and this is a game they could really use J.Charles because the Colts are really bad against the run. My best recommendation is take the Over on this one. 0-4 teams or worse are 10-5 ATS as favorites since 2002Straight: INDSpread: INDOvr/Und: OVRPhiladelphia at Buffalo 2.5 Ovr/Und 49UPSET OF THE WEEK Both teams suffered hard losses last week, and Michael Vick can't catch a break; he’s getting hit worse than Manny Pacquiao’s punching bag. If we take into account the big possibility that Peters - the only lineman playing decent on that team - would possibly be out for this game it sure doesn’t look good. If Reid ignores his instincts, they can have a great game if they run the ball because Buffalo has given 100 yards rushing in each game. I think Vegas is still hoping for that "Dream Team" to show up to still have them as favorites. Eagles are 14-22 ATS vs. AFC opponents since 2001. It’s hard to believe an Andy Reid team can have a 4 game losing streak but it sure looks that way. Straight: BUFSpread: BUFOvr/Und: UNDSeattle at New York Giants -10 Ovr/Und 43.5The Giants are a team that has clearly overachieved so far, and a lot has to do with the early favorable matchups they have gotten, but you can’t control who you get to play. The defense is putting a lot of pressure against the opposition, and last week with Osi back it went to another level. Seattle is a completely different team on the road than at home so don’t’ expect a lot of resistance for them. I really wish they would go with the spread offense all the time it sure looks like Tarvaris plays better in that formation. These are the stats for all of you to look for: Seahawks are 13-32 ATS on the road since 2006 & Seahawks are 0-11 ATS on the road vs. teams that average 24+ ppg since 2007. In short, take the Giants. Straight: NYGSpread: NYGOvr/Und: OVRCincinnati at Jacksonville -2.5 Ovr/Und 37This is another rookie QBs battle. Dalton has the edge so far in this battle, as every week he has looked better and - like in college - finds ways to win the games. Gabbert has had two back-to-back awful performances and it's starting to look like this will cost Del Rio’s coaching job. Bengals are 15-6 ATS as underdogs since 2009. Take the upset on this one and go with the Over. I don’t expect a blow out but rookies make mistakes and 37 is just too low. Straight: CINSpread: CINOvr/Und: OVROakland at Houston -6 Ovr/Und 48.5It was awful news that the whole NFL community got this morning with the death of Al Davis, one of the biggest contributors in the game even if he later became to somewhat of a punch line. I had the Texans winning this game early and not covering the spread, but football is a game of emotion and I really see the Raiders playing with heart on this one so I made a late change and went the complete upset. Al Davis said it best: “Just Win, Baby” Straight:OAKSpread:OAKOvr/Und:OVRArizona at Minnesota -2.5 Ovr/Und 45The Vikings are a team that has played better than what their record shows. They just have found ways to lose late leads. Arizona’s defense is dreadful and I can clearly see A.P having a field day out there. Teams playing at home with a 0-4 are dangerous games plus Arizona doesn’t travel well and Kolb just can stand up long enough behind that oline to find their WR. Like I said before 0-4 teams or worse are 10-5 ATS as favorites since 2002. Take the Vikings, and the under. Straight: MINSpread: MINOvr/Und: UNDTampa Bay at San Francisco -3 Ovr/Und 41I really like this game because both teams have similar styles and are bay teams, so weather shouldn’t be that much of a factor. Freeman is making a reputation of being the new comeback kid. His games might not be pretty but in the 4th quarter he finds ways to win games. I expect a hard matchup of low scoring and aggressive defense. I give a slight edge to the home team but it will be a close game. Take the Under on this one. Straight: SFSpread: TBOvr/Und: UNDNew York Jets at New England Patriots -9 Ovr/Und 49.5The Jets have been awful the past few weeks but getting Mangold for this game will surely help. Rex is going back to his smash football style that won him games in the past and shouldn’t have abandoned in the first place. The Patriots can’t have an off day on offense because that defense isn’t even stopping a cold. The loss of Mayo is huge and will affect this game. The Jets are one of the teams that know how to play the Patriots, so even with how ugly the Jets have looked I expect a close game. Take the points.Straight:NESpread: NYJOvr/Und: OVRSan Diego at Denver 4 Ovr/Und 46San Diego historically has had trouble in the past playing in Denver. It always gets complicated there for them. Denver’s defense is not stopping anybody. They’re getting pressure and sacks but tend to fold or just commit mistakes. Orton’s game is also suffering, as he looks more like The Kyle Orton of Chicago than last year's Orton. Chargers have won 8 of the past 10 meetings and expect them to win again.Straight:SDSpread: SDOvr/Und: OVR Green Bay at Atlanta 6 Ovr/Und 54Aaron Rodgers looks unstoppable! He is completing 73% of his passes with a crazy 9.4 YPA. The problem is Green Bay’s Defense: not only have they lost two key players on the secondary, but they are giving a lot of points. I was completely leading to this game as another upset because it completely looks like a trap game. Not only Atlanta plays great at home but you have the Divisional Playoffs game as reference from last year. But the reality is that Atlanta’s defense can’t put pressure and their Oline can’t protect Ryan. So take Green bay to win the Game but I would take the +6 Teaser on this one also on the Falcons. Also SNF = high scoring so go for the over. Straight: GBSpread: ATLOvr/Und: OVRChicago at Detroit : -6 Ovr/Und 47.5Detroit is playing crazy football right now! Even in a game that their offense couldn’t click and for 3 quarters their defense couldn’t stop the Cowboys, they made the plays to come back for the second week in a row from a huge deficit and win the game. Good teams find ways to win. The Bears offensive line will have huge troubles against the Lions and we all know how Cutler plays when he feels the pressure. Take The Lions. Straight: DETSpread: DETOvr/Und: UNDThe Hot Picks Record 15-9 62% 4-2 in Upset picks Buffalo (league)New York Giants (league)Cincinnati (league)San DiegoDetroitOaklandDon’s Prediction League Leaders Haynie 125 -67 66% [cowboysaddicts.com]BrrsColts 124-68 65% [coltfreaks.com]TheDon 123-69 64% [cowboysaddicts.com] CONGRATS TO THE 2010 DON’S PREDICTION LEAGUE CHAMPIONS*** Mlmpetert from thewarpath.net *** *** Sparty from detroitlionsforum.com *** Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierCat Posted October 9, 2011 Report Share Posted October 9, 2011 I agree that 37 is low for the Cincy/Jax O/U but the weather is supposed to be sh*tty in Jax tomorrow -- rain and 20 mile an hour winds. Could easily be a sloppy, low-scoring muddy slog. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedon Posted October 9, 2011 Author Report Share Posted October 9, 2011 I agree that 37 is low for the Cincy/Jax O/U but the weather is supposed to be sh*tty in Jax tomorrow -- rain and 20 mile an hour winds. Could easily be a sloppy, low-scoring muddy slog.I don't take Weather as a Strong point for my decisions because weather forecast had made me look bad in so many occasions an lose bets that I now place less importance to it. Many times the Weather forecast say it's going to rain heavy or Snow and I make my bet and prediction base on that and on game day it's sunny as hell. or like last year I believe a game between NE and TEN that was snowing crazy and even in the game was a complete snowstorm and I predicted a low scoring game heavy on the running game and NE scored like 50 points and passed the hell against the Titans.So now I take a lot of points ahead of weather and put a lot less value to it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saxon079 Posted October 9, 2011 Report Share Posted October 9, 2011 Don’s Prediction League Leaders Haynie 125 -67 66% [cowboysaddicts.com]BrrsColts 124-68 65% [coltfreaks.com]TheDon 123-69 64% [cowboysaddicts.com] Bull s**t your not in third. Total points wins show total points you little p***y not the score you put up after taking off points you don like. He is only showing 1/2 the game people. Seriously what kind of guy makes up a game were total points doesn't win. That's like not counting free throws in a basketball game. Besides why wouldn’t those points count? They come from predicting games with straight up, spread and over under. The exact same thing you’re whole thing is built on and you did it. You act as if it’s completely unrelated to the game in any manner when it’s the exact same thing. And I also love the fact you only show the stat where you subtract points and it makes you look better. If you don't like the extra points that you put in your own game take them out next year or be honest and take your beating like a man. You have less points than I do and you're certainly not in third place. Only in your fantasy-land that doesn't exist. It's your game you added the points so don't take them away because it makes you look bad. And let me add one more very important fact. This miracle week you had last week was only allowed by us allowing you to alter your predictions after you had already made them. Something might I remind you you did not let me do on two occasions in the past. But I let you becuse I'm not a p***y like you are. So even this great week should have an * by it because by your own rules it should not have counted. It must suck to be you to have to alter your own game to not look like a fool. We went head to head all season and you got punked. You should put up that old signature until you beat me but you know you never will. Plus, don't try to lie and say you never altered your original selections. Here's the beginning of the e-mail asking us for our approval. If you are really fair and balanced you would remove last week due to the fact it's completely against your own rules and you should have never put us in a situation you have never allowed anyone else the luxury of. But instead of being the little sissy that you are we let you off the hook. So just step off the I'm so good soapbox and be thankful we treated you like a little kid in an adult pickup basketball game and let you score. Remember I ask for this twice just on one game and you said no a full day befor kickoff.Uri Herszenborn wrote: > > Hey guys this has been edited so if you can give me your opinions I will Appriciated it > > Thxs > > > > > > THE DON'S > Crystal Ball Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedon Posted October 9, 2011 Author Report Share Posted October 9, 2011 Don’s Prediction League Leaders Haynie 125 -67 66% [cowboysaddicts.com]BrrsColts 124-68 65% [coltfreaks.com]TheDon 123-69 64% [cowboysaddicts.com] Bull s**t your not in third. Total points wins show total points you little p***y not the score you put up after taking off points you don like. He is only showing 1/2 the game people. Seriously what kind of guy makes up a game were total points doesn't win. That's like not counting free throws in a basketball game. Besides why wouldn’t those points count? They come from predicting games with straight up, spread and over under. The exact same thing you’re whole thing is built on and you did it. You act as if it’s completely unrelated to the game in any manner when it’s the exact same thing. And I also love the fact you only show the stat where you subtract points and it makes you look better. If you don't like the extra points that you put in your own game take them out next year or be honest and take your beating like a man. You have less points than I do and you're certainly not in third place. Only in your fantasy-land that doesn't exist. It's your game you added the points so don't take them away because it makes you look bad. And let me add one more very important fact. This miracle week you had last week was only allowed by us allowing you to alter your predictions after you had already made them. Something might I remind you you did not let me do on two occasions in the past. But I let you becuse I'm not a p***y like you are. So even this great week should have an * by it because by your own rules it should not have counted. It must suck to be you to have to alter your own game to not look like a fool. We went head to head all season and you got punked. You should put up that old signature until you beat me but you know you never will. Plus, don't try to lie and say you never altered your original selections. Here's the beginning of the e-mail asking us for our approval. If you are really fair and balanced you would remove last week due to the fact it's completely against your own rules and you should have never put us in a situation you have never allowed anyone else the luxury of. But instead of being the little sissy that you are we let you off the hook. So just step off the I'm so good soapbox and be thankful we treated you like a little kid in an adult pickup basketball game and let you score. Remember I ask for this twice just on one game and you said no a full day befor kickoff.Uri Herszenborn wrote: > > Hey guys this has been edited so if you can give me your opinions I will Appriciated it > > Thxs > > > > > > THE DON'S > Crystal BallSaxon please first take a Chill pill really.First I ALWAYS post the leader board based on stats and it's not like it helped me because last week I was in 15th place and I post that I'm in 15th place I don't alter anything.Second Check both Mails with my picks of last week THEY ARE THE SAME PICKS YOU DUMMY!!!!... I didn't change my picks what that mail said is that the column had been edited I got some help with someone editing my column because I got a lot of complaints about the Grammar. It had NOTHING to do with my picks. I just wanted an Opinion about the Writing if it was better.I never change my picks once I send them even when I do the column early on Wednesday. So really if you don't put attention on how things are done and what happens stop trying to create something that it's not. I do the same thing ever year and I post record because people that read the column don't care about our league but they might care on who has a better record.. Who gets more picks right!!! and if that person is part of their board.Now if you don't like it YOU DON'T HAVE TO PLAY!!!!... It's Free!! and I give a Price to the Winner of BOTH! Categories Stats and Points. So I don't Get WHY THE HELL You Keep Bitching about this IF you win in any categories you Win the Price and you can be recognized as the Winner. Last Years Winners Mlmpertert Won The Stats Category and Sparty Won The Points system. They are Both Recognized as the Winners EACH WEEK!! and Both Got their prices. So stop trying to create something or give me a bad rep because I won't tolerate it. 1 More Public Rant from you and you will get booted I won't deal with this crap Again!. Now to complain and try to make me look bad when as you said you didn't paid any attention on how the league worked for the past 3 years you only cared about beating me, and Now You complain even though I explained it to you many times.Also the year we placed a Bet I didn't cheated even if apparently you didn't knew how the league was run and I payed out my debt and wore he sign acknowledging you as the winner for the whole year. So stop trying to call me out because I'm as fair as it comes and I know you don't care about your reputation but I do care about mine. So stop it and if you don't like anything about the league Do it by mail. Man I Now Know why you were banned from this forum in the past and the Cardinals one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BengalszoneBilly Posted October 9, 2011 Report Share Posted October 9, 2011 We've never banned Saxon here Don. OTOH he's been banned over at the Cardinals board multiple times. I've come close there a few times myself. It's just a different atmosphere there. Here we allow a little back and forth between members, hence your thread remains out of the smack forum.For now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spor_tees Posted October 9, 2011 Report Share Posted October 9, 2011 We've never banned Saxon here Don. OTOH he's been banned over at the Cardinals board multiple times. I've come close there a few times myself. It's just a different atmosphere there. Here we allow a little back and forth between members, hence your thread remains out of the smack forum.For now.Just my personal opinion, but if Saxon has a beef with Don shouldn't he be displaying it on the forums where the actual pick'm competition takes place? Him doing it here in these forums only goes to show that he is making a propaganda attack on Don in this forum, which is unrelated to their competition. Now if the attacks where over something related to the Bengals, I wouldn't have a problem with this, but since it is over their contest, I think it is out of line and should be taking care of. Just my point of view. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BengalszoneBilly Posted October 9, 2011 Report Share Posted October 9, 2011 We've never banned Saxon here Don. OTOH he's been banned over at the Cardinals board multiple times. I've come close there a few times myself. It's just a different atmosphere there. Here we allow a little back and forth between members, hence your thread remains out of the smack forum.For now.Just my personal opinion, but if Saxon has a beef with Don shouldn't he be displaying it on the forums where the actual pick'm competition takes place? Him doing it here in these forums only goes to show that he is making a propaganda attack on Don in this forum, which is unrelated to their competition. Now if the attacks where over something related to the Bengals, I wouldn't have a problem with this, but since it is over their contest, I think it is out of line and should be taking care of. Just my point of view. When I said "for now", it means it's coming close to being moved. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierCat Posted October 9, 2011 Report Share Posted October 9, 2011 :jerry: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saxon079 Posted October 9, 2011 Report Share Posted October 9, 2011 We've never banned Saxon here Don. OTOH he's been banned over at the Cardinals board multiple times. I've come close there a few times myself. It's just a different atmosphere there. Here we allow a little back and forth between members, hence your thread remains out of the smack forum.For now.Just my personal opinion, but if Saxon has a beef with Don shouldn't he be displaying it on the forums where the actual pick'm competition takes place? Him doing it here in these forums only goes to show that he is making a propaganda attack on Don in this forum, which is unrelated to their competition. Now if the attacks where over something related to the Bengals, I wouldn't have a problem with this, but since it is over their contest, I think it is out of line and should be taking care of. Just my point of view. Okay I don't want to make anybody mad over here. Congratulations on your big win today I will leave my dispute with the Don to e-mail. Just to be fair to the Don I must add he is killing me today but there's a long ways to go. Anyways no more Don bashing on your forum................ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BengalszoneBilly Posted October 9, 2011 Report Share Posted October 9, 2011 We've never banned Saxon here Don. OTOH he's been banned over at the Cardinals board multiple times. I've come close there a few times myself. It's just a different atmosphere there. Here we allow a little back and forth between members, hence your thread remains out of the smack forum.For now.Just my personal opinion, but if Saxon has a beef with Don shouldn't he be displaying it on the forums where the actual pick'm competition takes place? Him doing it here in these forums only goes to show that he is making a propaganda attack on Don in this forum, which is unrelated to their competition. Now if the attacks where over something related to the Bengals, I wouldn't have a problem with this, but since it is over their contest, I think it is out of line and should be taking care of. Just my point of view. Okay I don't want to make anybody mad over here. Congratulations on your big win today I will leave my dispute with the Don to e-mail. Just to be fair to the Don I must add he is killing me today but there's a long ways to go. Anyways no more Don bashing on your forum................I knew this would work itself out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COB Posted October 9, 2011 Report Share Posted October 9, 2011 Good pick in week 5 there, Don. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BengalszoneBilly Posted October 9, 2011 Report Share Posted October 9, 2011 Good pick in week 5 there, Don.Ya gotta give him props. He picked the game both ways. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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