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Chick Ludwig's 07 predictions


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Except for his predictions of who Cincinnati picks up off the waiver wire. I doubt they'll go CB before LB, but hey...that's just IMHO!. From The Dayton Daily News.

Orange and Black in '07: How is Bengals' season shaping up?

By Chick Ludwig

Staff Writer - Monday, August 20, 2007

NFL rosters will be trimmed to 75 on Aug. 28, then get sliced to 53 on Sept. 1 — "Cutdown Day."

With 21 days remaining until Cincinnati's 2007 NFL opener against the visiting Baltimore Ravens, it's time to take a look at how the Bengals' 53-man roster shapes up.

But first thing's first. Please allow me to step out on a limb with ...

Five bold predictions

1. QB Carson Palmer will keep the momentum going by throwing for 4,000 yards for a second straight year to go with 36 TD passes and 18 interceptions. He deserves mention in the same breath with Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.

2. WR Chris Henry's eight-game suspension will be devastating, causing the Bengals to lose at least three games. No other candidate for the No. 3 receiver role can approach Henry's talent.

3.Rookie first-round draft pick Leon Hall will replace Deltha O'Neal as the starting left cornerback by Game 5. Hall's coverage technique, ball skill and toughness in run support are exceptional. O'Neal's contract runs through 2008, but he'll be gone after 2007.

4. The 30th-ranked defense will remain in the bottom third of the league because it's too inconsistent and lacks an identity. The line is too soft, the secondary is too young and the linebacker corps is too unstable.

5. Before the Sept. 10 opener, the Bengals will pluck a receiver, tailback and cornerback off the waiver wire.

Ludwig's mock 53-man roster

Quarterbacks (2): Carson Palmer, Jeff Rowe. In his limited opportunities, Rowe has shown more ability, poise and savvy than Doug Johnson.

Running backs (4): Rudi Johnson, Kenny Watson, Jeremi Johnson, Chris Manderino. The club needs Manderino, a sturdy Golden Bear from Cal, as a bridge until Jeremi Johnson's hamstring is fully healed.

Wide receivers (6): Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Tab Perry, Reggie McNeal, Glenn Holt, Skyler Green. McNeal and Green survive because of their kick-return ability. Holt, who has a pulled hamstring, deserves some slack because he's a proven winner on special teams. Antonio Chatman can't stay healthy and Bennie Brazell doesn't stick because he's a fragile, one-dimensional speed receiver with questionable hands.

Tight ends (2): Reggie Kelly, Nate Lawrie. Nicknamed "Senator" because he holds a political science degree from Yale, Lawrie has more experience than upstart rookie Daniel Coats.

Offensive linemen (10): Levi Jones, Stacy Andrews, Eric Ghiaciuc, Bobbie Williams, Willie Anderson, Andrew Whitworth, Scott Kooistra, Nate Livings, Dan Santucci, Adam Kieft. Kieft's comeback from a devastating knee injury in 2005 is one of the team's feel-good stories.

Defensive linemen (9): Bryan Robinson, Domata Peko, John Thornton, Justin Smith, Robert Geathers, Michael Myers, Jonathan Fanene, Kenderick Allen, Matt Toeaina. It's time to send injury-riddled Frostee Rucker packing.

Linebackers (7): Rashad Jeanty, Ahmad Brooks, Landon Johnson, Andre Frazier, Ed Hartwell, Caleb Miller, *Eric Henderson. Don't be surprised if Hartwell beats out Brooks as the starting middle linebacker.

Secondary (10): Deltha O'Neal, Johnathan Joseph, Dexter Jackson, Madieu Williams, Leon Hall, Chinedum Ndukwe, Marvin White, John Busing, Herana-Daze Jones, Ethan Kilmer. Where's Keiwan Ratliff? Long gone.

Specialists (3): Kicker Shayne Graham, punter Kyle Larson and long snapper Brad St. Louis. The "Three Amigos" live.

Practice squad (8): TE Daniel Coats, LB Matt Muncy, OT Alan Reuber, TB Curtis Brown, FB Stan White, LB Earl Everett, CB T.J. Wright, DE Xzavie Jackson.

*Note: If Henderson (wrist) goes on Injured Reserve, the club should keep CB Brandon Williams.

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2. WR Chris Henry's eight-game suspension will be devastating, causing the Bengals to lose at least three games. No other candidate for the No. 3 receiver role can approach Henry's talent.

How does he mean that - that the Bengals will be 5-3 or worse over their first 8, or that Chris' absence will cause them to lose 3 games they otherwise wouldn't have? The first could be reasonable, but the second is insane.

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MY mock 53-man roster

Quarterbacks (2): Carson Palmer, Jeff Rowe

Running backs (4): Rudi Johnson, Chris Perry, Kenny Watson, Jeremi Johnson [ Chris will be back around week 3 or 4]

Wide receivers (6): Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Tab Perry, Glenn Holt, Skyler Green, Bennie Brazell

Tight ends (3): Reggie Kelly, Daniel Coats, Nate Lawrie

Offensive linemen (9): Levi Jones, Stacy Andrews, Eric Ghiaciuc, Bobbie Williams, Willie Anderson, Andrew Whitworth, Scott Kooistra, Adam Kieft, Alex Stepanovich

Defensive linemen (9): Domata Peko, John Thornton, Justin Smith, Robert Geathers, Michael Myers, Jonathan Fanene, Kenderick Allen, Matt Toeaina, Frostee Rucker

Linebackers (7): Rashad Jeanty, Ahmad Brooks, Landon Johnson, Andre Frazier, Ed Hartwell, Caleb Miller, LB Earl Everett

Secondary (10): Deltha O'Neal, Johnathan Joseph, Dexter Jackson, Madieu Williams, Leon Hall, Chinedum Ndukwe, Marvin White, Herana-Daze Jones, Ethan Kilmer, Keiwan Ratliff.

Specialists (3): Kicker Shayne Graham, punter Kyle Larson and long snapper Brad St. Louis.

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Chick's predictions dont make any sense. On one hand he paints the picture that Henry's absence will be devastating to the offense, then he predicts that Carson throws for over 4000 yds with 36 TDs. How devastating could the loss of Henry be if Carson is throwing for more TDs than any QB has since the 2004 season?

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Chick's predictions dont make any sense. On one hand he paints the picture that Henry's absence will be devastating to the offense, then he predicts that Carson throws for over 4000 yds with 36 TDs. How devastating could the loss of Henry be if Carson is throwing for more TDs than any QB has since the 2004 season?

Good freaking question. He let the homer in him out for one sentence, and then in the next he forced himself to be more objective than is sane.

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Chick's predictions dont make any sense. On one hand he paints the picture that Henry's absence will be devastating to the offense, then he predicts that Carson throws for over 4000 yds with 36 TDs. How devastating could the loss of Henry be if Carson is throwing for more TDs than any QB has since the 2004 season?

Good freaking question. He let the homer in him out for one sentence, and then in the next he forced himself to be more objective than is sane.

That assumes that betting on Carson having another pro-bowl season is being a homer? Not likely. First of all... Henry should be there for the final 8 games, giving Palmer another WR to pad his stats with... against inferior competition (look at those last 8 games - SOFT). Palmer will again have cartoonish numbers.

Secondly, while Henry isn't a staple on the offense, he's a far better #3 than almost any other NFL team has. He creates a ton of mismatches when he's out there. His absence means a less explosive offense, which in turn means more pressure on the defense. I don't think it is unreasonable to think that Henry being gone is enough to turn a win into a loss against some of the better teams in the first 8 games.

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Chick's predictions dont make any sense. On one hand he paints the picture that Henry's absence will be devastating to the offense, then he predicts that Carson throws for over 4000 yds with 36 TDs. How devastating could the loss of Henry be if Carson is throwing for more TDs than any QB has since the 2004 season?

Here's a question. How good can Palmer be? The reason I ask is because Palmer has claimed that one of his individual goals for this season is to break the NFL's all-time passing record for completion percentage...currently held by Kenny Anderson. Old news I know, but on NFL Live several weeks ago they unanimously agreed that Palmer has the ability to reach his goal and based upon Palmer's old yards per completion numbers a 72% completion percentage might result in...... 4,600 yards and 40 TD's.

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Chick's predictions dont make any sense. On one hand he paints the picture that Henry's absence will be devastating to the offense, then he predicts that Carson throws for over 4000 yds with 36 TDs. How devastating could the loss of Henry be if Carson is throwing for more TDs than any QB has since the 2004 season?

Good freaking question. He let the homer in him out for one sentence, and then in the next he forced himself to be more objective than is sane.

That assumes that betting on Carson having another pro-bowl season is being a homer? Not likely. First of all... Henry should be there for the final 8 games, giving Palmer another WR to pad his stats with... against inferior competition (look at those last 8 games - SOFT). Palmer will again have cartoonish numbers.

Secondly, while Henry isn't a staple on the offense, he's a far better #3 than almost any other NFL team has. He creates a ton of mismatches when he's out there. His absence means a less explosive offense, which in turn means more pressure on the defense. I don't think it is unreasonable to think that Henry being gone is enough to turn a win into a loss against some of the better teams in the first 8 games.

I didn't intend for the word "homer" to be taken negatively. I could see Palmer throwing 36 TDs, though it'd surprise me. Still, if he gets that many, then I'd have to assume the 3rd receiver had a good first half in Henry's stead. The two predictions don't fit together, IMO.

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I stopped reading when he predicted the Bengals would keep two FB's on the 53-man roster.

Didn't we do this for a short time when our RB's were banged up and Hasn't JJ been banged up? I don't see us carrying 2 FB's but it could happen./

Hmmmm... maybe someone was sharing time when Lorenzo Neal was here. I think it was JJ. I could be wrong.

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I stopped reading when he predicted the Bengals would keep two FB's on the 53-man roster.

Didn't we do this for a short time when our RB's were banged up and Hasn't JJ been banged up? I don't see us carrying 2 FB's but it could happen./

Hmmmm... maybe someone was sharing time when Lorenzo Neal was here. I think it was JJ. I could be wrong.

I think they drafted JJ the year after Neal burned his bridges here, by saying he would not play in Cinci again.

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