Playoff Possiblities and Scenarios

[HoosierCat]

While we're merging...

[Stripes]

The Broncos are third in their division and are about to start a rookie quarterback. I'm not afraid of them.

I'm rooting for the Chiefs next Sunday.

[jjakq27]

Thanks, and sorry about puttin it in a seperate thread

No problemo. Just trying to keep this one thread going instead of two or three after every week.

The Broncos are third in their division and are about to start a rookie quarterback. I'm not afraid of them.

I'm rooting for the Chiefs next Sunday.

Let's hope Cutler has a big learning curve. Oh three of four games worth.

The Broncos really have surprised me lately. I really thought they were one of the two or three top teams in the AFC. They beat NE right before we played them, they beat the Ravens and lost a close game to Indy. Their defense was kicking ass and didn't require Plummer to play great either but all of a sudden it seems like they have become a very mediocre team since winning a close one against Oakland and losing to SD and KC the last two weeks.

[rwalling]

Must have the ravens game.

Once we have that, we must have the Jack@sses, I mean Broncos.

What I said. Avoid the trap game against the Raiders and make sure you beat the broncs.

[jjakq27]

Games of interest tomorrow...

Kansas City at Cleveland 1pm

New York Jets at Green Bay 1pm

San Diego at Buffalo 1pm

Jacksonville at Miami 4:05 pm

Seattle at Denver 8:15pm

[jjakq27]

So San Diego moves to 10-2. KC's loss drops them to 7-5 and Denver (7-4) plays tonight vs. Seattle.

NE wins today raising them to 9-3 and the Jets win and are 7-5.

The Colts lost to Tennessee but are 10-2. The Jags are 6-5 and in a tough one with Miami right now.

The Ravens lost to us and are 9-3 while we pulled up to 7-5 (like nobody knew that at this point ).

So at this point the four division winners would be:

South-Indy (10-2)

West-Chargers (10-2)

East-NE (9-3)

North-Baltimore (9-3)

Wild Card

Denver (7-4)

Cincinnati (7-5)

KC (7-5)

Jacksonville (6-5)

[LesterLyles]

if the season ended today, the Bengals would be the 5 seed and the Jets would be the 6 seed.

[Kazkal]

Bengals 7-5

Jets 7-5

jaguars 7-5

Chiefs 7-5

broncos 7-5

intresting lol.

[Wisk]

Bengals 7-5

Jets 7-5

jaguars 7-5

Chiefs 7-5

broncos 7-5

intresting lol.

Exactly right Kaz!

Someone who understands playoff seeding!

Thank You!

[Kazkal]

so right? lol

[derekshank]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/lastcall?page=lastcall/week13

ESPN's Michael Smith has us winning out and taking the first Wild Card spot. He has the Jets taking the 2nd one.

Of course that's an easy prediction to make - since if the season ended today, that would be the seeding. Way to take a risk Michael. Current playoff bracket

[jjakq27]

Here is the Enquirer's take on the situation. The Bengals would get the first of the two wild card spots.

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/art...sWIEiezoPm/0%3D

Divisional Standings

http://www.nfl.com/standings

Conference standings from NFL.com

http://www.nfl.com/standings/conference

Tiebreaker procedures

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakers

[agreen_112]

Hey why dont' the people who wrote off the Bengals playoff hopes step up and be a man and admit that they gave up on em'. I'm curious as to who that might be.

[jjakq27]

Hey why dont' the people who wrote off the Bengals playoff hopes step up and be a man and admit that they gave up on em'. I'm curious as to who that might be.

We already have a thread going on the subject.

[agreen_112]

Hey why dont' the people who wrote off the Bengals playoff hopes step up and be a man and admit that they gave up on em'. I'm curious as to who that might be.

We already have a thread going on the subject.

which one?

[Wraith]

It comes down to this. The Bengals need to beat Oakland and Pittsburgh at home and beat Denver on the road and they are in.

Of course beating the Colts would provide extra insurance and give us the possibility of winning the division.

[DC_Bengals_Fan]

Hey why dont' the people who wrote off the Bengals playoff hopes step up and be a man and admit that they gave up on em'. I'm curious as to who that might be.

Nobody gave up on them, but there were some of us realists who understood how tough the road was going to be, and at 4-5, the team wasn't playing well. Since then, they've played a lot better and had some incredible luck (JAX loss to BUF, KC loss to CLE, DEN loss to SEA). And still, we only lead the WC in tiebreakers and still have to play a now pissed-off Indy team and DEN, who has a great D despite the SEA loss. Compare that to the Jets' schedule, which is pathetic.

In other words, they ain't in yet, and need to keep this thing rolling, but things are definitely looking good.

[duus]

It comes down to this. The Bengals need to beat Oakland and Pittsburgh at home and beat Denver on the road and they are in.

Of course beating the Colts would provide extra insurance and give us the possibility of winning the division.

Exactly ...

Sweep the final 4 and it is a slam dunk. We'll probably have the #5 seed, and maybe even the division title.

Win 3 of 4, and it is almost guaranteed we are in. That's what it will take, and we may even still get the #5 seed, but probably the #6 seed, but who cares which it is ... we're in.

Win 2 of 4, and you start sounding like a Urine fan and looking for all sorts of ridiculously silly ways to squeeze in week to week. Finish 9-7 and you will still get the second place title in the North (due to tiebreakers), but who cares?

Win 1 of 4, and, well, keep wearing your Orange and Black throughout the winter and spring, and get ready for training camp '07.

You see what all this means, don't you? The odds of us sweeping the next 3 is very, very small. I would absolutely love that, but I'm hoping to get 2 out of 3. Against both Indy and Denver on the road, that would be very good. Which brings us to that 12/31 game against the Urine. A must win. We'll go in with a 9-6 record. If that is the case, the Urine, even by winning all previous games, will be 8-7, but will not be able to win the tiebreaker with us at 9-7, so they will be out of it. But you know they will want to knock us out. Man, that will be fun. Talk about a serious revenge factor. I will love our chances with Palmer behind center in Cincy with the playoffs on the line against the Urine.

[agreen_112]

It comes down to this. The Bengals need to beat Oakland and Pittsburgh at home and beat Denver on the road and they are in.

Of course beating the Colts would provide extra insurance and give us the possibility of winning the division.

Exactly ...

Sweep the final 4 and it is a slam dunk. We'll probably have the #5 seed, and maybe even the division title.

Win 3 of 4, and it is almost guaranteed we are in. That's what it will take, and we may even still get the #5 seed, but probably the #6 seed, but who cares which it is ... we're in.

Win 2 of 4, and you start sounding like a Urine fan and looking for all sorts of ridiculously silly ways to squeeze in week to week. Finish 9-7 and you will still get the second place title in the North (due to tiebreakers), but who cares?

Win 1 of 4, and, well, keep wearing your Orange and Black throughout the winter and spring, and get ready for training camp '07.

You see what all this means, don't you? The odds of us sweeping the next 3 is very, very small. I would absolutely love that, but I'm hoping to get 2 out of 3. Against both Indy and Denver on the road, that would be very good. Which brings us to that 12/31 game against the Urine. A must win. We'll go in with a 9-6 record. If that is the case, the Urine, even by winning all previous games, will be 8-7, but will not be able to win the tiebreaker with us at 9-7, so they will be out of it. But you know they will want to knock us out. Man, that will be fun. Talk about a serious revenge factor. I will love our chances with Palmer behind center in Cincy with the playoffs on the line against the Urine.

It is going to be hard for us to get into the playoffs though. I said at the beginning of the year and several other times that if we need 2 wins out of the last 3 games of the season It's going to be really hard. That's basically what it comes down too. We'll beat Oakland. We can beat Denver and Indy. Pittsburgh, you never know, they will be out for blood. I know that we can handle Pittsburgh. I think we're at a position to finish out this season strong, unlike last year. What a statement we will set winning our spot in the playoffs.

I trust Marv, it was him that said "We'll be right where we need to be at the end of the season". So far, he's been a genius.

[HoosierCat]

In other words, they ain't in yet, and need to keep this thing rolling, but things are definitely looking good.

I agree, except that I would probably say "looking better" instead of "looking good." The Bengals have indeed played strongly these last few weeks, and that combined with Denver's collapse have allowed them to regain control of their wild card destiny. Thats certainly better than three weeks ago.

That said, they are now basically in a five-way scrum over two spots. They have a slight edge in tiebreakers, but that won't matter if they don't keep winning. And as we saw this weekend in places like Cleveland and Tennessee, the old cliche about "any given Sunday" is still true.

Four games to go. That's still a lot of football. Just win, baby, just win.

[jjakq27]

Hey why dont' the people who wrote off the Bengals playoff hopes step up and be a man and admit that they gave up on em'. I'm curious as to who that might be.

We already have a thread going on the subject.

which one?

This one.

http://forums.bengalszone.com/index.php?showtopic=13559

We also have ones going on the playoffs too.

[DC_Bengals_Fan]

It comes down to this. The Bengals need to beat Oakland and Pittsburgh at home and beat Denver on the road and they are in.

Of course beating the Colts would provide extra insurance and give us the possibility of winning the division.

Exactly ...

Sweep the final 4 and it is a slam dunk. We'll probably have the #5 seed, and maybe even the division title.

Win 3 of 4, and it is almost guaranteed we are in. That's what it will take, and we may even still get the #5 seed, but probably the #6 seed, but who cares which it is ... we're in.

Win 2 of 4, and you start sounding like a Urine fan and looking for all sorts of ridiculously silly ways to squeeze in week to week. Finish 9-7 and you will still get the second place title in the North (due to tiebreakers), but who cares?

Win 1 of 4, and, well, keep wearing your Orange and Black throughout the winter and spring, and get ready for training camp '07.

You see what all this means, don't you? The odds of us sweeping the next 3 is very, very small. I would absolutely love that, but I'm hoping to get 2 out of 3. Against both Indy and Denver on the road, that would be very good. Which brings us to that 12/31 game against the Urine. A must win. We'll go in with a 9-6 record. If that is the case, the Urine, even by winning all previous games, will be 8-7, but will not be able to win the tiebreaker with us at 9-7, so they will be out of it. But you know they will want to knock us out. Man, that will be fun. Talk about a serious revenge factor. I will love our chances with Palmer behind center in Cincy with the playoffs on the line against the Urine.

For us to get in at 9-7, the JETS have to either go 2-2 against their cupcake schedule (best chances for losses at MIA and against BUF at home), or DEN has to lose at home against SF and ARI. If we beat DEN and OAK, and DEN loses at SD (highly likely), we probably beat DEN on the tiebreakers, making the Piss game irrelevant.

If I were a betting man, I'd put our overall playoffs odds somewhere between 40-50% right now. And that's a whole lot higher than it was last month.

[walzav29]

I admit, that I Walter Zaviski, the great writer for Bengalszone.com. World famous from my Sirius Satellite Radio discussions. I thought the Bengals were out of it. I always hoped that they weren't but the Tampa, and Charger losses have put the Bengals in a very difficult position. I could never be happier to be wrong if the Bengals can pull it off and make the playoffs.

[jjakq27]

Games of interest next week...

Sunday, Dec. 10

Baltimore (9-3) at KC (7-5) 1pm

Indianapolis (10-2) at Jacksonville (7-5) 1pm

New England (9-3) at Miami (5-7) 1pm

Oakland (2-10) at Cincinnati (7-5) 1pm

Buffalo (5-7) at NY Jets (7-5) 4:15pm

Denver (7-5) at San Diego (10-2) 4:15pm

[duus]

Well, immediately after I said to not go looking at 'what-ifs' with a 9-7 record ... well, I'm going to ...

This actually might brighten your day ...

Let's focus on the 5 teams that are 7-5: Bengals, Broncos, Jets, Chiefs, and Jaguars.

Did you know that if we beat Oakland and Denver, and even lose to the Urine (not happening), we basically win every scenario you can come up with if the final wildcard spot is among a group at 9-7?

Why?

Point 1 - We win the division tiebreaker against the Urine even if they win-out (if not by conference record, then by common games).

Point 2 - With those two conference wins to get to 9-7, we will most likely have the advantage of conference record with respect to those other teams in the group, regardless of who they are.

Point 3 - We will have beaten both Denver and KC, so that may or may not help.

So ... we effectively need/want 3 of the 4 other 7-5 teams to go 2-2 the rest of the way, and then, even with a 9-7 record and a loss on 12/31, we are in.

Another thing that might help out at the end is that KC and Jacksonville play each other. I expect Jacksonville to be out by then, but you never know.

So ... I see our key game as at Denver. Assuming a win this coming week, then a win at Denver might actually put us in a position where the 12/31 game doesn't matter. It could happen. Regardless, should we win at Denver, we will more than likely be in control of our destiny.

Given other teams schedules, etc :

11-5 - 100% chance of being in

10-6 - 90% chance of being in

9-7 - 75% chance of being in

Even I refuse to consider 8-8.