Thoughts on Extending the O-Line

[HoosierCat]

A good deal of ink has been spilled over the need for the Bengals to extend their offensive line, the entirety of which is due to his free agency after the upcoming season. I thought I'd take a look at what numbers were generally available and try to figure out just how possible (and likely) it is, and what it might cost in terms of cash and cap space.

First, the Big Ugly Numbers to keep in mind, courtesy of the Red Zone:

Offensive linemen

Franchise tender: $6,983,000

Transition tender: $6,391,000

Obviously we aren't going to have to level one of those tags this year, but it's clear the Bengals would be better off not having to do so next offseason. The tags don't discriminate between o-line positions, so those numbers are being driven by the pricey LT slot. Even so, as we will see, even guards are getting expensive.

The next thing to remember is deals can only be pro-rated over 4 years this year, so look for extension to be in the 3 or 4 year range.

The next thing to look at is just what our guys are currently costing us, in terms of the cap hit. Here's the breakdown from Supercat's Bengals Jungle site:

Willie: $5 million

Levi: $1.9 million

Steinbach: $900k

(I'm leaving Richie out, since '06 will almost certainly be his swan song season. Williams I am betting they let go after '06 as well.)

Given those numbers, Willie is actually the easiest guy to re-up. His existing $5 million cap hit gives you oodles of room to play with. You could give him a deal along the lines of 4 years, $24 million, including a $10 million signing bonus and still not significantly increase his 2006 hit. (Note I'm not saying that's what they should do, just an example to point out that the only way Willie is a problem is if he's a d*ck and/or the Bengals try to cheap out on him.) If Willie wants to be a real "team guy" and is serious about how he already got his big windfall, the Bengals might even be able to recoup a million or so in cap space.

Levi, OTOH, is coming due. 10-year LTs are at a premium in the league and in this writer's opinion Levi deserves (at least) top 10 LT (i.e. transition-level) coin. Certainly he'd get it if he hit the open market. Here's a piece from Kirwan that's a couple years old looking at LT salaries. At that point, the average was about $5 million/year, with a signing bonus of $1-2 mill/year of the deal.

For a 4-year extension for Levi, I'm guessing we're looking at something on the order of a $26 million deal, with a signing bonus around $8 million. Even with backloading we are still talking about a $5 million-ish cap hit. You might exchange some of the signing bonus for other kinds, like roster bonuses or guaranteed coin in later years, but it's still tough to see them pull that '06 cap hit down below $3 million.

Best case scenario is probably to do something like that, combined with a Willie extension that frees up a million or so in cap space, so that the combined cap hit at the tackle position stays around $7 million.

(There's also the idea of just letting Willie go, installing Koo as the starter at RT and Stacey the Dancing Bear as the No. 2. With that big fat cap hit, I can't dismiss that possibility. It would make Katie's life a whole lot easier. And Koo's capable. Of course, he's on the cusp of FA, too, so all you really do is delay the issue.)

Moving on to guard,, I see Steinbach's situation as one highly comparable to that of Giants guard Rich Seubert a few years ago. That was a $9.2 million, 4 year extension with a $725k cap hit in 2003, then (the extension) $900k, $1.6 million, $2.1 million, and $2.6 million, if my addition is right. So figure Steinbach costs us something in the $10-12 million neighborhood over 4 years, and a cap hit of about $1.3 million in '06.

All three of these guys still have bonus money from their initial contracts still to burn off in 2006 (about $1.9 million total) so over 4 years that would throw another $500k or so against the cap.

So…I would say that the worst-case scenario is that the three go from a combined $7.8 million cap hit in 2006 to about $11.8 million. Best-case, I would say, would be a combined cap hit of about $8.8 million.

[cincy9275]

sign steinbach and jones and hope willie is going to help and not be a pain by demanding money we can't give him . we can not afford to lose any of these guys but if one has to go it would be big willie.

[The_Next_Big_Thing]

I don't believe that the oline is lumped together when it comes to the tags. Perhaps your source was just being lazy?

[schweinhart]

Too bad it's got to be 4 years on the signing bnous pro-rate w/ no CBA extension in place right now.

If the CBA is not extended, Steiny and Levi won't be free agents until after the 2008 season, so on the whole there could be sme good reasons for the Bengals to just play the string out.

But I'd rather they didn't wait to extend those 2, especially Steinbach. $10-$12 mill over 4 yrs might have sounded about right until Steiny showed he can also play LT and C in his spare time last year. Surely that versatililty did not go unnoticed by him, his agent, or the Bengals management. I would imagine it will cost extra but probably not a whole lot more than what you got.

Levi is probably looking at slightly more than what Jonas Jennings got last year -- 7 yr., $36 mill with $12 mill SB. And the 4 year, $26 mill w/ $8 mill SB deal you got looks like the deal to do it even if the SB money isn't as great.

Big Willie really ought to set his mind on playing ball and settle for more coin than he was gonna get this year. To do that, a 4 year deal with a $4 mill SB and a $3 mill base in 2006 would also save the Bengals a mill. I think the Bengals should be reluctant to give out more SB to him than that....no offense to him because I think he's still a great RT. But if he goes down at his age, the Bengals lose out with a high SB.

[turningpoint]

I suggest redoing stienbach and willie now, and then telling Levi they'll redo his deal later, once they have the room freed up( i say sometime in september)

[Kazkal]

we should keep big bobby he'll be cheap

[ArmyBengal]

I'm not even going to recommend how the contracts should be worked out, as I'm clueless to how that all works, but I will say whatever we can do to keep continuity on the O-lone works for me and I'm sure Carson would appreciate as much protection as possible. I'm thinking the organization will definitely have Carson in mind when they make this happen, especially after dropping all that coin on him...

WHODEY !!!

[bengalboomer7]

Very goood analysis, Joisey.

Following that, Willie is the obvious choice to get done first. You can get it done without killing any cap money for best case two years.

Levi might deserve transition 6.3 mill, but I hope he doesn't get it. I'd like to drop your figure to about 21-24 mill, but the shorter end of that probably isn't enough.

Steiny isn't going anywhere and due to his young age you could probably get the best deal on him. Of course,, I'm a cheapy and was thinking 4years at about 8 mill

[The_Next_Big_Thing]

Very goood analysis, Joisey.

Following that, Willie is the obvious choice to get done first. You can get it done without killing any cap money for best case two years.

I guess I see it differently. I love Willie, don't get me wrong, but the fact is, if he wants more than he's worth, he's got to go. I'd love to have him stick around for a couple more years and get his ring, but I'm not going to risk losing the YOUNG studs on the Oline for him. We've been grooming Stacy the Dancing Bear for 2 years now, he should be ready to step in as a right tackle. It's not like he's on the blind side. By the same token, when Kooistra went in this season to cover for Willie, you didn't notice a difference. I'm not saying Kooistra is as good as Willie, but that maybe Willie isn't worth overspending.

Steinbach and Jones, on the other hand, anchor the left side and have long careers ahead of them, baring some steeler rolling on their knees.

[HoosierCat]

I don't believe that the oline is lumped together when it comes to the tags. Perhaps your source was just being lazy?

Ya never know...but I dimly recall reading a piece on that subject a couple years back, related to how the lumping made it impossible to tag guards. So as goofy as it looks, I think it's right. But my only point in including it was to give an idea of what the top tackles were making anyhow.

I think both you and Boomer are right in that a decision probably needs to be made on Willie as a first step. If they plan on keeping him around beyond 2006, then IMHO he's your first extension. Lowering his cap number even marginally, say half a million, would likely cover the additional hit from extending Steinbach. After that, Levi can be dealt with now or next offseason.

OTOH if they plan to go in a different direction at RT...then I would say they probably ought to let Willie go (or trade him) ASAP. That frees up plenty of money to drop a top-10-caliber deal on Levi and probably to extend Eric as well.

[HairOnFire]

I guess I see it differently. I love Willie, don't get me wrong, but the fact is, if he wants more than he's worth, he's got to go. I'd love to have him stick around for a couple more years and get his ring, but I'm not going to risk losing the YOUNG studs on the Oline for him.

That's closer to my way of thinking. I'd certainly approach Willie at the same time I approached Levi and Steinbach, but if Anderson repeats his habit of asking for outlandish money I'd quickly move on to the younger offensive lineman and of those two I'd make Levi the highest priority...and the subject of a tag if a deal can't be agreed upon.

BTW, I think Willie will balk at signing a long term extension precisely because he expects and wants the tag.

In addition, I'd make an effort to extend Bobbie Williams even though it wouldn't be a priority. His signing wouldn't be very expensive and would provide much needed stability. If he resists then I move on quickly, but the effort should be made. He played well last season.

I do agree that Braham isn't a priority. The Bengals should get much needed answers this season in regards to Wilkinson and Ghiaciuc, and even if the answers aren't to the Bengals liking I doubt Braham will generate more interest in FA than he has previously.

Last, at the risk of provoking the ire of Steakhouse, I'd make extending Justin Smith a priority. He may not be a world beater but the thought of the Bengals losing their best defensive lineman, and only quality DE, makes my bowels flop and my poop turn watery.

[Kazkal]

wonder what bengals did offer willie that was so small he coulden't remember it

Last, at the risk of provoking the ire of Steakhouse, I'd make extending Justin Smith a priority. He may not be a world beater but the thought of the Bengals losing their best defensive lineman, and only quality DE, makes my bowels flop and my poop turn watery.

-Aye

[schweinhart]

OTOH if they plan to go in a different direction at RT...then I would say they probably ought to let Willie go (or trade him) ASAP. That frees up plenty of money to drop a top-10-caliber deal on Levi and probably to extend Eric as well.

I'd be dead against moving Big Willie right now. Worse case, let him play out his contract this year then see where they're at. He's still a Pro Bowl RT in my book and should be lined up and ready to go for Game 1.

Levi is the cap-eater in this. If a $5 mil extra cap hit is to be expected from a new deal, then I doubt they'll redo him until they come out of free agency, given the Bengals claim of just $10 mill under the cap. One factor that could compound the process is that bonus pro-rates can't be dumped into 2007 for June 1st cuts if there's no CBA. Not that the Bengals are a likely team to engage much in this practice anyway, but it could have freed up some room with a player like Kim Herring if he's not going to stick.

I say lock up Steiny. If Levi goes down, he's the LT and there's substantial value in that. Worse case, Steiny adds about $2 mill to the cap.

Hopefully, the Bengals will draft a DE this year who can be groomed a year to put Justin Smith in a better light on how they'll handle his negotiations. But I'd say lay off extending him and Bobbie Williams too. Let them both lay it all on the line this year to get the best out of both.

[Kazkal]

Ya but might be better sign justin now well you can still probbley get him cheap then all sudden have break out seas get 12 sacks and then cost a fudge load

[ShulaSteakhouse]

I have no idea how the Bengals' address this.

It would be nice to have someone better than Levi to protect Palmer's blind side - before you start throwing stones - I just don't think the guy's nearly as good as a lot of people say. The fact is, LT's with tenure are a commodity regardless of ability, and when they have a great RB, WR and QB around them - they look good.

I would consider tendering Levi a 1-2 year deal and draft a LT in the 1st round again as soon as a "can't miss" prospect worthy of it comes along. If not, you re-sign Levi again and live with the decision.

I just don't see the need nor the value in over-paying Levi Jones for a long term contract - if he were THAT good - they would've re-signed him by now.

Willie looked spry in the Pro Bowl, and I hope he agrees to a 2-3 year deal, at least.

Steinbach - re-sign this guy and hope a real o-line coach comes in here some day and can develop him to his potential. Otherwise, he's a very good guard whom I really like still. Long term type.

Williams and Braham, as Josey stated, should be gone after this year.

I hope Wilkerson fits into the plans also.

Finally, you see the need for high round 0-line talent becoming a priority in this year and the upcoming drafts. Don't rule it out.

wonder what bengals did offer willie that was so small he coulden't remember it

Last, at the risk of provoking the ire of Steakhouse, I'd make extending Justin Smith a priority. He may not be a world beater but the thought of the Bengals losing their best defensive lineman, and only quality DE, makes my bowels flop and my poop turn watery.

-Aye

Well then I hope later this year or early next, you'll be dropping the fiber out of your diet in a proactive move!

[HoosierCat]

One factor that could compound the process is that bonus pro-rates can't be dumped into 2007 for June 1st cuts if there's no CBA.

Well, the whole CBA things is a giant joker in the deck right now. For this I was just using the staus quo, at least as much of it as I could figure out. But if they hammer out an extension before FA starts (and there are multiple reports that a delay in FA until April 1 is possible so they can do just that) then the cap is likely to go up more than current estimates, and bonuses will almost certainly be proratabe over a longer term. In which case extending Willie, Levi, Steinbach (and for that matter Justin Smith) should not present a problem. (Or at least no problems other than those typical for any negotiations involving the Bengals!)

[schweinhart]

One factor that could compound the process is that bonus pro-rates can't be dumped into 2007 for June 1st cuts if there's no CBA.

Well, the whole CBA things is a giant joker in the deck right now. For this I was just using the staus quo, at least as much of it as I could figure out. But if they hammer out an extension before FA starts (and there are multiple reports that a delay in FA until April 1 is possible so they can do just that) then the cap is likely to go up more than current estimates, and bonuses will almost certainly be proratabe over a longer term. In which case extending Willie, Levi, Steinbach (and for that matter Justin Smith) should not present a problem. (Or at least no problems other than those typical for any negotiations involving the Bengals!)

If there's a CBA, problem solved because, like you say, the bonuses can be spread over longer rather than looking at just 4 year contracts or at least 4 year spreads on signing bonuses.

But the cap going up is going to maintain a lot of oppoisition from smaller markets. Sure Snyderbrenner, Jerry Jones, and the ilk would love to see it jump over $100 mill as soon as possible -- and no doubt the players would too -- but the majority of teams will likely remain reluctant enough to keep their fly in the ointment.