Best Available?

[Wraith]

In reviewing the prospects in this draft I have some very exiting and frustrating news.

This is one of the deepest O-Line drafts in history, this is also a very good Linebacker draft, Running back draft, and Quarterback draft....these are not exactly areas of need for the Bengals unless we are determined not to sign our '07 Free Agents on the O-Line. Marvin's philosophy has been to draft the BPA early and worry about depth and buttressing the team in the middle rounds.

What if Jay Cutler of Vanderbuilt (QB) is the best player available, how about DeAngelo Williams (RB) Memphis, or LenDale White (RB) USC, or even a Marcus McNeil (RT) Auburn. Can this team afford to spend another 1st round selection on an offensive player at all? Are we still building for the future or do we want to win now. If your building for the future maybe it is prudent to pick a tackle or a guard (there is a great one likely available in Max-Jean Gillis) but then you run the risk of killing the great chemistry we have in the O-line (will Willie play as well knowing that he is likely not to be resigned after the season because we have drafted a McNeil or Jon Scott of Texas in the first round)? And even if we do draft a lineman he is likely not going to play next year which does nothing to enhance our eminent Super Bowl push.

Unfortuneately the top DE's (Mario Williams and Mathias Kiwanuka) are going to be long gone by 24 as will the only Safety (Michael Huff) that carries a consensus first round grade (Pat Watkins, Darnell Bing who is my personal favorite as a second round selection, and Greg Blue are more consistently second round options). This is a great year for the TE with Marcedes Lewis, Vernon Davis, Leonard Pope, Anthony Fasano, Dominic Byrd, and Jay Klofenstein all carrying a potential first round grades depending upon which "expert" you listen to, and while TE is a need, I will eat my computer if at least one of those guys guys isn't available to us come our second round selection, heck I would even gamble that one of those guys (likely Byrd or Fasano) doesn't last to our selection in the third. My point is with all the great options at TE do you really want to spend a first round selection on a Davis, Lewis or Pope when a guy nearly as good (possibly even better) will be there at a later round? Again, can we even justify an offensive 1st rounder at all?

There will be some talent likely available on the D-Line but each guy that is likely there is a big ? certainly a bigger ? than some of the offensive talent also likely available. From the DE position the only guy I would be willing to take a gamble on is Tamba Hali from Penn State but you might as well call him David Pollack, Jr. because he is the exact same type of guy. At DT you have one guy in Haloti Ngata who has motivation and Attitude problems but has all the talent in the world (and will also likely be gone by the time 15 rolls around) and you have a bunch of guys that are suspect (Rod Wright of Texas is talented but disappears for long stretches of game, Orien Harris and Broderick Bunckley have limited experience and seem to have issues comprehending game plans, and Gabe Watson did very little (next to nothing) his senior season despite being a physical freak and had some problems with the Michigan coaching staff by most accounts). Other than Rod Wright, who appears to be a bright guy with a good motor who just wears down in games, none of these DT's are Marvin Type guys and again most of these players are consensus second round options (along with Claude Wroten of LSU).

So the long and the short of this is, do we take a Darnell Bing, Rod Wright, or Pat Watkins to fill a need (which is counter to Marvin's BPA policy) or do we take a guy whose selection will likely disrupt play with our existing offensive players just to pick the best football player (Tackle, Guard, Center, or Running Back). I will bet that the best available player will be a running back at our draft position with Maroney, Bush, White and Williams and with the run on RBs last year but, The guy that we would take at that position would likely be a #3 unless we plan on cutting ties with Chris Perry. I just can't seem to justify taking a TE in the first round at all because I have yet to see anything on tape that separates Marcedes Lewis from Anthony Fasano other than the style of offense and the oppotunities that Lewis had.

[redsbengalsbucks]

I have never thought that trading up was a good idea, but I would like to see them trade up to get Huff if possible.

The team is short in few positions this season unlike past drafts where any upgrade was fine.

I would rather have a good SS to pair with Williams and give up a pick this year or next.

I have seen this all last year and I now agree with it.

WINNOW!!

[derekshank]

In reviewing the prospects in this draft I have some very exiting and frustrating news.

This is one of the deepest O-Line drafts in history, this is also a very good Linebacker draft, Running back draft, and Quarterback draft....these are not exactly areas of need for the Bengals unless we are determined not to sign our '07 Free Agents on the O-Line. Marvin's philosophy has been to draft the BPA early and worry about depth and buttressing the team in the middle rounds.

What if Jay Cutler of Vanderbuilt (QB) is the best player available, how about DeAngelo Williams (RB) Memphis, or LenDale White (RB) USC, or even a Marcus McNeil (RT) Auburn. Can this team afford to spend another 1st round selection on an offensive player at all? Are we still building for the future or do we want to win now. If your building for the future maybe it is prudent to pick a tackle or a guard (there is a great one likely available in Max-Jean Gillis) but then you run the risk of killing the great chemistry we have in the O-line (will Willie play as well knowing that he is likely not to be resigned after the season because we have drafted a McNeil or Jon Scott of Texas in the first round)? And even if we do draft a lineman he is likely not going to play next year which does nothing to enhance our eminent Super Bowl push.

Unfortuneately the top DE's (Mario Williams and Mathias Kiwanuka) are going to be long gone by 24 as will the only Safety (Michael Huff) that carries a consensus first round grade (Pat Watkins, Darnell Bing who is my personal favorite as a second round selection, and Greg Blue are more consistently second round options). This is a great year for the TE with Marcedes Lewis, Vernon Davis, Leonard Pope, Anthony Fasano, Dominic Byrd, and Jay Klofenstein all carrying a potential first round grades depending upon which "expert" you listen to, and while TE is a need, I will eat my computer if at least one of those guys guys isn't available to us come our second round selection, heck I would even gamble that one of those guys (likely Byrd or Fasano) doesn't last to our selection in the third. My point is with all the great options at TE do you really want to spend a first round selection on a Davis, Lewis or Pope when a guy nearly as good (possibly even better) will be there at a later round? Again, can we even justify an offensive 1st rounder at all?

There will be some talent likely available on the D-Line but each guy that is likely there is a big ? certainly a bigger ? than some of the offensive talent also likely available. From the DE position the only guy I would be willing to take a gamble on is Tamba Hali from Penn State but you might as well call him David Pollack, Jr. because he is the exact same type of guy. At DT you have one guy in Haloti Ngata who has motivation and Attitude problems but has all the talent in the world (and will also likely be gone by the time 15 rolls around) and you have a bunch of guys that are suspect (Rod Wright of Texas is talented but disappears for long stretches of game, Orien Harris and Broderick Bunckley have limited experience and seem to have issues comprehending game plans, and Gabe Watson did very little (next to nothing) his senior season despite being a physical freak and had some problems with the Michigan coaching staff by most accounts). Other than Rod Wright, who appears to be a bright guy with a good motor who just wears down in games, none of these DT's are Marvin Type guys and again most of these players are consensus second round options (along with Claude Wroten of LSU).

So the long and the short of this is, do we take a Darnell Bing, Rod Wright, or Pat Watkins to fill a need (which is counter to Marvin's BPA policy) or do we take a guy whose selection will likely disrupt play with our existing offensive players just to pick the best football player (Tackle, Guard, Center, or Running Back). I will bet that the best available player will be a running back at our draft position with Maroney, Bush, White and Williams and with the run on RBs last year but, The guy that we would take at that position would likely be a #3 unless we plan on cutting ties with Chris Perry. I just can't seem to justify taking a TE in the first round at all because I have yet to see anything on tape that separates Marcedes Lewis from Anthony Fasano other than the style of offense and the oppotunities that Lewis had.

Well... if all that you say is true, and it plays out exactly like that... and all the best players available are RB's TE's and QB's (which I would argue is not a great assessment)... but let's say it does happen. If all the decent Defensemen that we want are 2nd and 3rd round guys, my guess is that we'll trade down, and hvae two 2nd round picks, and possibly three 3rd rounders. The Lions did somethign very similar in order to get Kevin Jones in the first round a couple years ago... so trading down to get a couple extra 1st day picks seems a very real possibility... and what would be better when we have so many defensive holes to fill than multiple picks to fill those holes... and possibly even create depth!

[Wraith]

Ok, so I challenge you, which of these "can't miss" Defensive players will fall to the Bengals at 24. Yes, there are likely LBers available but we are stuffed to the gills with young LBers.

Michael Huff (War Room's #10 overall)

Haloti Ngata (War Room's #13 overall)

Jimmy Williams (War Room's #4)

Tye Hill (War Room's #11)

Mario Williams (War Room's #8)

Mathias Kiwanuka (War Room's #7)

IMHO there is no logical arguement that any of these players will fall all the way to us at #24 considering the clear talent drop-off between these players and the next best players at their positions, DE, S, CB and DT are all now premium positions with the top players at these positions going top 15 in every draft in the last five years but one. The next best Defensive players listed at the War Room site other than a Linebacker that I have not mentioned is Elvis Dumervil of Louisville (DE) who is 5' 11" and 250 lbs at #26 and not only over-rated on this site (#44 on the Great Blue North Site) but not a good fit for the Bengals because of his size.

Defensively this draft is top loaded with talent and we pick late in the round.

[TJJackson]

We have an enormous amount of money tied up in our QB for some time to come, age at the RT position, and a number of OL's with contracts expiring next year. Kieft and Andrews have potential, but unrealized as yet, with Kieft in particular being an unknown quantity. Kooistra has been decent/average, imho.

If you add all that up, and a truly blue chip OL (particularly a OT on either end) falls to us at 24 or so, I don't see how you can not give the guy consideration as the pick. With as much money as we have invested in Carson, we should be putting the very best protection we can in front of him.

If this were to occur, and assuming the blue chip DTs, DEs, and Ss are all gone at this point, it would not be unreasonable to select the blue chip OL at this spot.

That said, I am not overall in favor of drafting an OL....like most people here, I want a defensive starter who isn't a linebacker.

Let me also point out to the previous poster that invariably, every year, someone who shouldn't by all reason fall, falls. Case in point in 2005: OLB Derrick Johnson was projected to go in the top 5 at worst, went at 15. I should add that as I saw this happen, I was screaming at the TV for the Bengals to trade up to snare him before the defense-hungry Chiefs got him :-)

[DesperateDerelict]

Ok, so I challenge you, which of these "can't miss" Defensive players will fall to the Bengals at 24. . . .

Michael Huff (War Room's #10 overall)

Haloti Ngata (War Room's #13 overall)

Jimmy Williams (War Room's #4)

Tye Hill (War Room's #11)

Mario Williams (War Room's #8)

Mathias Kiwanuka (War Room's #7)

What makes you think these guys are the BPA's? BPA is a subjective term, and will vary from team to team based on needs, personal scouting, interviews, and whether the specific player's skill fit into the teams scheme. That's why there are always surprises on draft day - no one really knows what a team's draft board looks like. It's even tougher woth the Bengals, because Marvin seems to prefer a role player that fits our scheme than a great or heralded football player that doesn't.

It's very possible we grab Bing, Blue, or Simpson because the coaches feel he's a great fit, even if we grab him too early => If you believe the rumors from last year, we came close to grabbing Odell in the 1st round - which would have been considered a "Reach" (like Perry, Madieu, Langdon, etc.)

[derekshank]

What is you're definition of a can't miss player? That seems like a pretty subjective term to me. You can't convince me that there is a single "can't miss" player in the whole draft. That is why there are things called busts... like previous can't miss guys such as Ryan Leaf.

And you're Mock draft source could be way off. Firstly... you don't know how other teams are ranking these players. Every team will have a different board they are going off of... while these draft "experts" are all going off their own info. Not to mention that with every mock draft you find, you will see the Bengals taking a different player.

Gabe Watson, Orien Harris, Claude Wroten, Darnell Bing, Tamba Hali, Rod Wright, Jesse Mahelona, Mercedes Lewis... just to name the first few I googled. If there is this much a lack of consensus on what will be available, and what the Bengals are looking for, I am willing to doubt that the same lack of consensus exists among the other teams.

You never know who might be there... and drafting an offensive player when we have so many defensive needs is insane. I don't care how much it might improve our offense... we won't win it all that way. I say if we can trade down and get multiple picks... then do it. If you can't... take the best defender on the board... and my guess is that there will be plenty of them.

[HoosierCat]

What is you're definition of a can't miss player? That seems like a pretty subjective term to me. You can't convince me that there is a single "can't miss" player in the whole draft. That is why there are things called busts... like previous can't miss guys such as Ryan Leaf.

And you're Mock draft source could be way off. Firstly... you don't know how other teams are ranking these players. Every team will have a different board they are going off of... while these draft "experts" are all going off their own info. Not to mention that with every mock draft you find, you will see the Bengals taking a different player.

Not to mention the fact it isn't even Feb. yet. We still have FA to go, which willl undoubtedly change both our needs and those of many other teams. And on top of that, the draft hype machine has barely begun to spin up. For no apparent reason, Marcedes Lewis appears to be falling, while Broderick Bunkley is rising. Wright, a top 10 pick last year, is suddenly at the bottom of round 1. If you can tell me where Gabe Watson will be ranked in two months I'll give you a medal.

Don't worry, there will be a good defender on the board when we pick.

Just as an aside: actually, derek, as far as the first round pick is concerned, Wright has emerged as the early favorite by far (check the draft database page). Which, of course, means that there's actually no chance we will take him!

[Wraith]

"Can't Miss" was in quotation marks because, of course, there is no such thing. Just like "experts" were in quotation marks because anyone who is paid to follow the NFL Draft is wrong as much as their right.

This all being said I stand by my statement and have thrown out these arguements for the sake of a nice healthy discussion (read: arguement).

As stated in my mock what I have written here and what I actually think will come to pass as a best guess are two different things. I do see a potential issue though with the defensive side of the draft, Watson could be awesome as could Bunkley (though I doubt it) or Wright and certainly Watkins or Ko Simpson or Darnell Bing could be a perfect fit for the Bengals but as of right now those guys look more like second rounders than first, and the top rated players who are most likely to slide based upon previous drafts and the needs of the teams picking ahead of Cincy are offensive players IMHO.

[HoosierCat]

I do see a potential issue though with the defensive side of the draft, Watson could be awesome as could Bunkley (though I doubt it) or Wright and certainly Watkins or Ko Simpson or Darnell Bing could be a perfect fit for the Bengals but as of right now those guys look more like second rounders than first, and the top rated players who are most likely to slide based upon previous drafts and the needs of the teams picking ahead of Cincy are offensive players IMHO.

Well, as has been pointed out, there appear to be many who would disagree withh your characterization of guys like Wright and Simpson and Bing and argue they are all worthy of a first round pick. But more importantly, I think, even if guys like this are seen in Marvin's eye as second round talent...history says he won't hesitate to grab them if he thinks they won't last.

Remember Perry? and Madieu? They, and most of the rest of the '04 draft, were lightly panned by the cognicenti when selected as being picked "about half a round" too early. Chris Mortensen said that, quoting unnamed sources, IIRC. I thought it was a rather dumb observation myself. Picking half a round too early implies that you have a pick in half a round you could have used -- which the Bengals didn't. But Marvin is a beloved coach who gets the kid glove treatment while Lebeau gets laughed at by Mel for taking Levi maybe 3-4 slots early. Go figure.

In any event, I wouldn't get hung up on BPA. BPA is whoever we pick at the time (trust me, Marvin will issue the obligitory "he was at the top of our board" comment). Shoot, Heath Miller was rated higher than David Pollack by most mockers last year and look what happened.

[rwalling]

Ok, so I challenge you, which of these "can't miss" Defensive players will fall to the Bengals at 24. Yes, there are likely LBers available but we are stuffed to the gills with young LBers.

Michael Huff (War Room's #10 overall)

Haloti Ngata (War Room's #13 overall)

Jimmy Williams (War Room's #4)

Tye Hill (War Room's #11)

Mario Williams (War Room's #8)

Mathias Kiwanuka (War Room's #7)

IMHO there is no logical arguement that any of these players will fall all the way to us at #24 considering the clear talent drop-off between these players and the next best players at their positions, DE, S, CB and DT are all now premium positions with the top players at these positions going top 15 in every draft in the last five years but one. The next best Defensive players listed at the War Room site other than a Linebacker that I have not mentioned is Elvis Dumervil of Louisville (DE) who is 5' 11" and 250 lbs at #26 and not only over-rated on this site (#44 on the Great Blue North Site) but not a good fit for the Bengals because of his size.

Defensively this draft is top loaded with talent and we pick late in the round.

I agree. Soooooo, I believe we try to win now and move up. Package Our first, K-Wash and a lower round pick to move up and grab Naloti. Put a man in the middle like him and watch what Justin, Jumpy Jr. and Pollack can do.

[TJJackson]

How are we trading Kelly Washington when he isn't even under contract at this point?

[rwalling]

How are we trading Kelly Washington when he isn't even under contract at this point?

Can you say restricted free agent? We make a qualifying offer and we control him.

[TJJackson]

I may well be wrong, but I don't think you can trade a fellow you do not have under contract.....

[HoosierCat]

How are we trading Kelly Washington when he isn't even under contract at this point?

Can you say restricted free agent? We make a qualifying offer and we control him.

We make a quallifying offer and we have the right to match any offer he gets or get a draft pick as compensation (exact round varies depending on the size of the tender). But you can't trade a guy who hasn't signed a contract -- or in this case, the tender offer --- and Kwash certainly won't be in any hurry to do so. He could also effectively block any trade by simply declining to talk to a team about a new contract; teams don't trade for guys with one-year deals.

The only way the Bengals could trade Kwash would be with his cooperation, which he has no incentive to give before he's tested the market. I expect the Bengals will tender him at the 3rd-round-pick level and will happily take the extra selection if anyone makes him an offer. I think there's a strong chance he gets one; a lot of teams need wideouts and this year's draft looks to me like the weakest WR draft since about 2000.