24

[HoosierCat]

A look back at the No. 24 round 1 selections for the past 10 years, and what they've done:

2005

Aaron Rodgers QB Packers

1 season: 9/16, 65 yards, 1 INT, 2 fumbles

2004

Steven Jackson RB Rams

2 seasons: 388 rushes, 1,719 yards, 12 TDs; 62 receptions, 509 yards, 2 TDs

2003

Dallas Clark TE Colts

3 seasons: 91 receptions, 1,251 yards, 10 TDs

2002

Edward Reed DB (SS) Ravens

4 seasons: 269 tackles, 4 sacks, 22 INTs, 4 FF, 32 PD

2001

Willie Middlebrooks DB (CB) Broncos (now a 49er)

5 seasons: 62 tackles, 1 sack, 7 PD

2000

Ahmed Plummer DB (CB) 49ers

6 seasons: 316 tackles, 12 INTs, 1 FF, 57 PDs

1999

Reggie McGrew DT 49ers

2 seasons: 10 tackles, 1 sack, 3 PDs

1998

Shaun Williams DB (SS) Giants

8 seasons: 423 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 13 INTs, 2 FF, 36 PD

1997

Chad Scott DB (CB) Steelers (now a Pat)

9 seasons: 422 tackles, 19 INTs, 1 FF, 79 PD

1996

Eric Moulds WR Bills

10 seasons: 675 receptions, 9,096 yards, 48 TDs

Random observations:

24 is a popular spot for DBs, they make up 5 of the last 10 picks.

Only one guy, Ed Reed, turned out to be a real stud. OTOH, two 24s, McGraw and Middlebrooks, were total busts. OTOOH, the rest of them (Rodgers excepted, he get a pass because he hasn't really played) all the rest have been good, at worst, and in some cases very good, picks

[NJ29]

Seeing Ed Reed and Dallas Clark literally made me smile.

[HairOnFire]

24 is a popular spot for DBs, they make up 5 of the last 10 picks.

There always seems to be a run on DB's near the end of the round. Teams looking for defensive help at those spots are often faced with the prospect of drating a DT or DE ranked 3rd or 4th in his class, selecting a LB or S earlier than most teams are willing, or rolling the dice on a DB due to the potential upgrade at a high impact position.

I think it's a decision the Bengals will face, too. The need for defensive line help is undeniable, but the DL options who don't have question marks as great as their strengths will be long gone, and many will question if a SS gives you enough bang for the buck. With Tory James fading faster than he can run an upgrade at CB is going to look pretty attractive as the round winds down.

[HoosierCat]

There always seems to be a run on DB's near the end of the round. Teams looking for defensive help at those spots are often faced with the prospect of drating a DT or DE ranked 3rd or 4th in his class, selecting a LB or S earlier than most teams are willing, or rolling the dice on a DB due to the potential upgrade at a high impact position.

I think it's a decision the Bengals will face, too. The need for defensive line help is undeniable, but the DL options who don't have question marks as great as their strengths will be long gone, and many will question if a SS gives you enough bang for the buck. With Tory James fading faster than he can run an upgrade at CB is going to look pretty attractive as the round winds down.

True...and mostly points both you and I have tossed out for consideration at various times in the last few weeks. My one quibble is that I think the day when people questioned the value of taking a SS in the bottom half of the first round has passed. It's not long past, I'll admit; I can remember just a few years ago (01 or 02, I forget exactly) when the Cowboys spent a top 10 pick on Roy Williams and there was harumphing in punditland over using such a high pick on a safety, free, strong, or otherwise. Now, no one bats an eye.

What has fallen from favor -- and not just from the first round but from the draft totally in some case -- is the "traditional" SS, i.e. the hard-hitting enforcer type with minimal coverage skills who spent virtually all his time pretending to be an extra linebacker. (See Shazor, Ernest) The game is pass-happy today, and teams can't afford to put anyone out in the secondary who can't handle coverage duties, and that in turn appears to have driven safety to much greater importance. So if we get down to 24 and it's a choice between a solid safety prospect (say a Huff or Bing or Simpson) or rolling the dice on a potential upgrade at corner...I think safety wins.

[NJ29]

There always seems to be a run on DB's near the end of the round. Teams looking for defensive help at those spots are often faced with the prospect of drating a DT or DE ranked 3rd or 4th in his class, selecting a LB or S earlier than most teams are willing, or rolling the dice on a DB due to the potential upgrade at a high impact position.

I think it's a decision the Bengals will face, too. The need for defensive line help is undeniable, but the DL options who don't have question marks as great as their strengths will be long gone, and many will question if a SS gives you enough bang for the buck. With Tory James fading faster than he can run an upgrade at CB is going to look pretty attractive as the round winds down.

True...and mostly points both you and I have tossed out for consideration at various times in the last few weeks. My one quibble is that I think the day when people questioned the value of taking a SS in the bottom half of the first round has passed. It's not long past, I'll admit; I can remember just a few years ago (01 or 02, I forget exactly) when the Cowboys spent a top 10 pick on Roy Williams and there was harumphing in punditland over using such a high pick on a safety, free, strong, or otherwise. Now, no one bats an eye.

What has fallen from favor -- and not just from the first round but from the draft totally in some case -- is the "traditional" SS, i.e. the hard-hitting enforcer type with minimal coverage skills who spent virtually all his time pretending to be an extra linebacker. (See Shazor, Ernest) The game is pass-happy today, and teams can't afford to put anyone out in the secondary who can't handle coverage duties, and that in turn appears to have driven safety to much greater importance. So if we get down to 24 and it's a choice between a solid safety prospect (say a Huff or Bing or Simpson) or rolling the dice on a potential upgrade at corner...I think safety wins.

If Marvin follows your philosophies, that probably rules out Antonio Cromartie.

[HoosierCat]

It would...but I'm sure there's a lot more going into the mix at PBS regarding the No. 1 pick. Specifically, I think the team has several questions to answer before it can even begin to shape its draft board. They include:

-- Carson Palmer. His injury looms over the offseason like a mountain. Yes, I believe if things aren't looking great they may consider a QB as early as the first, but even if that isn't the case the injury may push them in the direction of an all-around TE prospect. Esp. if Kitna stays, heaven knows he can use all the short-range targets he can get. And if they don't take a pass-catcher they either have to find one in FA or re-sign Schobel....or (and this is IMHO an intriguing option) go with perennial camp follower Ronnie Ghent (the next Kevin Walter?).

-- Keiwan: for real or start over? You can also include Brooks in this equation. James is running out of gas. He may stay on, but they need some new blood at CB and it isn't clear that either of their recent picks has what it takes. This could push them back to CB, despite the fact it may be a riskier choice.

-- Free agency. Any holes they fill here obviously change the picture. If they get an Adam Archuleta, likely they go other than S in the first. Unless of course they also think Herring is done...

-- Askew. If he's really gone, and I think he is, they need some answers at DT now and I seriously doubt they pony up the $ it would take in FA to get a good DT, if there is even one there. So they may reach at 24.

[BlainThePain]

I bet we keep Askew, at least, to the end of training camp. I think only the draft will determine where or not he gets to stay on for the season.

[TJJackson]

I also think Askew survives though to training camp, but at that point, unless he shows Marvin something, he's kicked to the curb. Cap hit is minimal, as he was a 4th rounder.

I think they need a DT __and__ a DE in the first 4 rounds of the draft. DT is an obvious choice, but with Clemons having substance abuse issues and Justin Smith probably asking for too much money, we need at least one replacement. Not sold on Fanene.

I won't have a problem with either of the first two picks as long as they come from one of the following positions: DT, DE, TE, S, or CB. Preferably, any DB picked is a star punt returner to boot.

[HairOnFire]

It would...but I'm sure there's a lot more going into the mix at PBS regarding the No. 1 pick. Specifically, I think the team has several questions to answer before it can even begin to shape its draft board. They include:

-- Carson Palmer. His injury looms over the offseason like a mountain. Yes, I believe if things aren't looking great they may consider a QB as early as the first, but even if that isn't the case the injury may push them in the direction of an all-around TE prospect. Esp. if Kitna stays, heaven knows he can use all the short-range targets he can get. And if they don't take a pass-catcher they either have to find one in FA or re-sign Schobel....or (and this is IMHO an intriguing option) go with perennial camp follower Ronnie Ghent (the next Kevin Walter?).

-- Keiwan: for real or start over? You can also include Brooks in this equation. James is running out of gas. He may stay on, but they need some new blood at CB and it isn't clear that either of their recent picks has what it takes. This could push them back to CB, despite the fact it may be a riskier choice.

-- Free agency. Any holes they fill here obviously change the picture. If they get an Adam Archuleta, likely they go other than S in the first. Unless of course they also think Herring is done...

-- Askew. If he's really gone, and I think he is, they need some answers at DT now and I seriously doubt they pony up the $ it would take in FA to get a good DT, if there is even one there. So they may reach at 24.

I'm not trying to pick nits (or is it knits)....but I find myself asking different questions.

Palmer? - Palmer's serious injury is going to dominate out thoughts, and according to many Jon Kitna has the potential to ride to our rescue, albeit on a spotty white stallion blessed with four very weak legs. But what the heck, just try to guess from the way I prefaced my response which player I think will be the focus of any long term QB talk in the Bengals war room.

Ratliff? - The answer to most questions regarding Ratliff will be that he's been solid, if unspectacular, and may always have been drafted with the 3rd CB role in mind. And even if he wasn't it's a role he can continue filling while the Bengals address upgrading Tory James starters spot.

Askew? - They need more options at DT regardless of what decision is made about Askew, a player who is remarkebly hard to judge due to the complete lack of playing tme he's gotten. That said, the first question begging for an answer involves what to do with John Thornton, as the temptation to cut Thornton based upon cap savings may dictate that a spot suddenly opens up for Askew.

Free Agency? - A quality veteran safety with several years left would be ideal and probably wouldn't break the bank. That said, maybe some day I'll let all of you in on my fantasy about the Jets drafting Kiwi or Mario Williams, setting in motion a series of events that end with DE John Abraham trying on our ugly uniforms.

[schweinhart]

The game is pass-happy today, and teams can't afford to put anyone out in the secondary who can't handle coverage duties, and that in turn appears to have driven safety to much greater importance. So if we get down to 24 and it's a choice between a solid safety prospect (say a Huff or Bing or Simpson) or rolling the dice on a potential upgrade at corner...I think safety wins.

Safety does seem to be the more likely course that they'll go because they'll get a top player at that position rather than something of a gamble at CB (at least this year).

But if they feel a CB is still there who dispels their doubts, it'll be hard to pass because of CB money. Safeties cost less and, again, in this year's draft safety looks to be very deep with solid talent most likely available into Day 2 that would upgrade the Bengals.

If Huff somehow doesn't get drafted as a cover CB (which seems to me very unlikely), he would slide but even then I doubt he falls all the way to 24 because at the very least he's a lock at nickel back and either safety position. It is possible though, especially if teams lean toward Jimmy Williams more at CB than safety and Tye Hill makes the catapult up draft boards that I'm guessing he'll make.

[NJ29]

If lots of safeties prospects last, like you say schweiny, we could fill needs at corner, D Tackle and tight end on day one and take a guy like Addae or Calvin Lowry on Day 2.

[Kazkal]

I say wait on the CB 1 more year(inless one could be found in 2nd-3rd). james may be slacking but hopfully williams or our new safety will be able to back him up

[HoosierCat]

Safety does seem to be the more likely course that they'll go because they'll get a top player at that position rather than something of a gamble at CB (at least this year).

But if they feel a CB is still there who dispels their doubts, it'll be hard to pass because of CB money.

I hear ya & yeah, CBs cost an arm and a leg. I suppose I'm simply tired of first round projects and gambles, y'know? We need a safety. It's a lock that a sure-fire (at least as sure as anything can be in the draft) candidate will be there, while all the other defensiive positions will be picked over. Take the safety, plug him in, boom! our D just got better. Not next year or in a couple years or after they learn a new position, but now.

[HoosierCat]

Free Agency? - A quality veteran safety with several years left would be ideal and probably wouldn't break the bank. That said, maybe some day I'll let all of you in on my fantasy about the Jets drafting Kiwi or Mario Williams, setting in motion a series of events that end with DE John Abraham trying on our ugly uniforms.

Abraham would be wonderful, but I think "fantasy" is an apt characterization. Frankly, I don't expect much more than a vet QB (Kit or otherwise) and one or two Robinson/Ohalete/Navies type (i.e. second and third tier FAs) signings. For a guy like Abraham, too many teams will be willing to offer structures that Bengals management won't match, and that will be that. One relatively decent DE I could see in stripes, esp. if they let Big Duane go, would be Saints DE Darren Howard. Rumor is he will be let go. He's two years older than Abraham and has a rep as a locker room problem in N.O. (got benched for the last 4 games), so he'd probably draw less interest, giving Cincy a shot.

[ArmyBengal]

Free Agency? - A quality veteran safety with several years left would be ideal and probably wouldn't break the bank. That said, maybe some day I'll let all of you in on my fantasy about the Jets drafting Kiwi or Mario Williams, setting in motion a series of events that end with DE John Abraham trying on our ugly uniforms.

Abraham would be wonderful, but I think "fantasy" is an apt characterization. Frankly, I don't expect much more than a vet QB (Kit or otherwise) and one or two Robinson/Ohalete/Navies type (i.e. second and third tier FAs) signings. For a guy like Abraham, too many teams will be willing to offer structures that Bengals management won't match, and that will be that. One relatively decent DE I could see in stripes, esp. if they let Big Duane go, would be Saints DE Darren Howard. Rumor is he will be let go. He's two years older than Abraham and has a rep as a locker room problem in N.O. (got benched for the last 4 games), so he'd probably draw less interest, giving Cincy a shot.

Funny about Howard, as I work with two HUGE Saints fans. I give them crap all the time about Howard because last year both of them were saying how they might be able to get a 1st or 2nd for Howard and this year they say "He's a bust". I don't know all the facts, but the talent is there...

WHODEY !!!

[HoosierCat]

Funny about Howard, as I work with two HUGE Saints fans. I give them crap all the time about Howard because last year both of them were saying how they might be able to get a 1st or 2nd for Howard and this year they say "He's a bust". I don't know all the facts, but the talent is there...

I dunno what the deal is either, but I suspect it started when the Saints spent their 1st rounder in '04 on OSU DE Will Smith. I've noticed that a lot of players tend to go off their feed when the team drafts their replacement, y'know? But Smith had something like 9 sacks last season and Howard is a FA...and the Saints front office doesn't appear to be in any rush to chat about a new deal.

[schweinhart]

If the Bengals want to immediately improve the pass rush at DE, free agency looks like it holds more of a sliver of hope than the draft and short of J-Abe, Howard might be the kind of player -- one who will also be looking to rejuvenate the second half of his career. Howard and the Bengals might just be a perfect match.

Safety does seem to be the more likely course that they'll go because they'll get a top player at that position rather than something of a gamble at CB (at least this year).

But if they feel a CB is still there who dispels their doubts, it'll be hard to pass because of CB money.

I hear ya & yeah, CBs cost an arm and a leg. I suppose I'm simply tired of first round projects and gambles, y'know? We need a safety. It's a lock that a sure-fire (at least as sure as anything can be in the draft) candidate will be there, while all the other defensiive positions will be picked over. Take the safety, plug him in, boom! our D just got better. Not next year or in a couple years or after they learn a new position, but now.

The debate for safety is without question the strongest one for filling team need and an immediately at that. Given the fact that the other defensive positions will be picked over by 24, the case for best available being a safety would also hold strong.

But the Bengals look like they will face an increasing problem at CB in 2006 IMO. Bauman and Brooks got 1 foot out the door, Tory James is getting the miles on him and it shows, and Keiwan leaves a great deal to be desired at the position. CB might prove to be a bigger, much worse problem next year for the Bengals than safety -- which was plugged this year with the leanest means and any upgrade would be an improvement combined with a healthy Madieu.