Broncos vs. Chargers, December 31

[andybren]

According to the current standings, the Bengals are the #3 seed and will play the #6 seed.

The Chargers and Steelers are tied for the #6 seed, with the Steelers winning the tie-breaker, due their win against the Chargers earlier in the season. It looks like the only way the Chargers make the playoffs is if they win out and the Steelers lose at least once. But it doesn't seem likely that the Steelers will lose to either the Browns or the Lions.

Also, if the Chargers manage to beat the Broncos, we'll have a chance to move up to the #2 seed and get a first round bye. In that case, we'll tie the Broncos with overall record and division record, and the seed will go to the team with the better "Strength of Victory".

The only other scenario I see is if we lose our last two, drop to the #4 seed, and face the Jaguars.

[San Antonio Bengal]

But it doesn't seem likely that the Steelers will lose to either the Browns or the Lions.

It didn't seem likely that the Steelers would lose to the Ravens... any given Sunday...

[HoosierCat]

Also, if the Chargers manage to beat the Broncos, we'll have a chance to move up to the #2 seed and get a first round bye. In that case, we'll tie the Broncos with overall record and division record, and the seed will go to the team with the better "Strength of Victory".

Just a note: division record isn't applicablle since the Bengals and Broncos are in different divisions; the tiebreaker after overall is head-to-head (also not applicable since we didn't play) and after that it's conference (AFC) record. Denver is 8-2 and we are 7-3 in the AFC right now. Both of us play 2 AFC teams to end the seasons (Oakland and SD for Denver, Buffalo and KC for us). So the bottom line is that in order for us to win in the AFC tiebreaker we'd have to have a better record overall, which would mean the tiebreaker doesn't matter. Strength of victory, I believe, would go to the Broncos. Denver controls its own fate regarding the No. 2 seed at this point. Fortunately, we'll know before the KC game whether it matters or not, so even if Denver does win out and secure the No. 2 seed, we can rest our starters.

[CBin2k7]

I always thought common opponents came before Strength of Victory.

[HoosierCat]

I always thought common opponents came before Strength of Victory.

I think it does. However, I've had way too many beers tonight to figure that out!

[cincykent]

According to the current standings, the Bengals are the #3 seed and will play the #6 seed.

The Chargers and Steelers are tied for the #6 seed, with the Steelers winning the tie-breaker, due their win against the Chargers earlier in the season. It looks like the only way the Chargers make the playoffs is if they win out and the Steelers lose at least once. But it doesn't seem likely that the Steelers will lose to either the Browns or the Lions.

Also, if the Chargers manage to beat the Broncos, we'll have a chance to move up to the #2 seed and get a first round bye. In that case, we'll tie the Broncos with overall record and division record, and the seed will go to the team with the better "Strength of Victory".

The only other scenario I see is if we lose our last two, drop to the #4 seed, and face the Jaguars.

Dude, get a clue. We have been talking about this ever since the Bengals beat the Steelers three weeks ago. We lose the tie-breaker to Denver due to conference record. The Broncos have only lost 2 conference games. We have lost 3 games. Denver must lose one of their final two games. The Bengals need to win their final two.

[Stripes]

Dude, get a clue. We have been talking about this ever since the Bengals beat the Steelers three weeks ago. We lose the tie-breaker to Denver due to conference record. The Broncos have only lost 2 conference games. We have lost 3 games. Denver must lose one of their final two games. The Bengals need to win their final two.

"Dude" this is a message board. "Dude" you don't have to be hostile. "Dude" calm the crap down.

Division champs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[cincykent]

Dude, get a clue. We have been talking about this ever since the Bengals beat the Steelers three weeks ago. We lose the tie-breaker to Denver due to conference record. The Broncos have only lost 2 conference games. We have lost 3 games. Denver must lose one of their final two games. The Bengals need to win their final two.

"Dude" this is a message board. "Dude" you don't have to be hostile. "Dude" calm the crap down.

Division champs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hey, if someone is going to write something that is suppose to be informative then get the facts straight. Or maybe we all just need to light one up and chill. That will make everything better, just like Chris Henry says.

[jjakq27]

Here is a scenario that would keep the Steelers out and give us the first round bye.

If Oakland beats Denver next week and if San Diego wins next week against against KC, then SD can win the division if they defeat Denver the following week.

San Diego would win the division at 11-5. They split with Denver but would win the division based on a 5-1 divisonal record vs. 3-3 for Denver.

Denver would be 11-5 and be one of the two wild card teams edging the Steelers even if Pittsburgh wins out. Denver would be 8-4 in the AFC while Pittsburgh would be 7-5.

If we win one more game, we would then have at least 12 wins and that would guarantee us the first round bye since we would have a better record than SD (11 at best) or NE (11 at best).

[derekshank]

The main reason I was happy that SD won and KC lost is that SD still has something to play for, while KC probably does not (they would need to win out, and have Pit lose out to make the playoffs).

This means that SD will hopefully beat KC next week, so that they will still have something to play for against Denver in the final week (at that point on Saturday, they will not know if Pittsburgh will win or lose their last game on Sunday... so it will still be important to them).

If SD beats KC, then KC will have lost their last 3 games, and have absolutely nothing to play for against us... while SD will have everything to play for against Denver.

GO SAN DIEGO SUPER-CHARGERS! They are our best chance at the first round bye... but like Joisey said... even if Denver wins out, we will have a bye week, because there will be nothing to play for against KC, so we can rest before the playoffs.

[walshfan]

I bellieve that San Diego will beat Denver...I think they're the better team out west right now....

I see the Bengals winning out and having the bye then playing Denver in round two...

I see them beating Denver and playing Indy in the AFC title game.

I see them beating Indy in a shootout....

I see them reaching the Super Bowl and beating the Bears again.

I must be blind!

[HoosierCat]

Another playoff scenario (picked up skimming a story on Pitt's win): Pitt and SD are tied at 9-5, whille Jax is at 10-4. If Pitt and SD both win out, and Jax drops one, so that all involved finish 11-5...Pitt becomes the odd man out.

[alleycat]

I actually think this scenario will occur (because Jax has been playing like A$$), but I don't understand how. Pitt loses the tiebreaker with Jax but wins with SD so why wouldn't they be in?

Just checked the answer on NFL.com:

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.

2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

Because none of the three teams has either lost to both or beaten both, the head-to-head sweep is not applicable and the next step, conference record, kicks in. Pittsburgh has lost 5, SD 3, and Jax 3. Even if Jax loses one, both they and SD have better conference records and Pitt wipes it's nose.

Either way, I'm happy with this scenario.

If we lose to Denver, we take off the KC game and play Jax at home (Correct me if I'm wrong here, but wouldn't this scenario put Jax at the number 6 seed).

If we win the last game, we take the buy, then play the winner of the Denver Jax game at home. I think this is the most likely route to get us into the AFC championship game. Which in this scenario I would bet would be in Cincy against San Diego! (or New England).

Wow.. this could all be useless conjecture, but isn't it fun to finally be spitting out useless conjecture this time of year!?

[blurple thunder]

I actually think this scenario will occur (because Jax has been playing like A$$)

I think that should go up for boneheaded post of the year. You do realize that Jacksonville is playing Houston and Tennessee for their final 2 games, don't you?

Besides, San Diego is playing in KC. I would hate to be SD going into one of the most hated stadiums for visiting teams after KC let 2 games slip away. Sure SD beat Indy, but what are the chances of them beating KC and Denver?

[alleycat]

Let's see. Yesterday Jacksonville eeked out a 10-9 victory over powerhouse San Francisco, a team that currently stands as officially the Worst team in the league. Tennessee almost beat Seattle except for last second Shawn Alexander heroics. Boneheaded post of the year?

If I'm boneheaded, what does that make you?

A bitter Steeler fan, who sadly, still can't face the truth.

[HoosierCat]

C'mon, keep it friendly, fellas.

Unfortunately for the Steelers, blurple, alleycat's right: the Jags barely scraped by yesterday. Garrard isn't bad but he's definitely a step down from Leftwich. And both of those games are divisional games, too, and we both know you can toss the records out the window when it comes to those.

As for SD's chances, well, KC certainly looked like s**t vs. the Giants. Their D couldn't tackle a one-legged grandma. If they play like that again, Tomlinson may break the single-game rushing mark. Denver hasn't exactly been impressing lately either, barely escaping the Ravens 12-10 and then having to come from behind to beat the Bills.

I think that, in the end, Pitt will make the playoffs...but they don't quite control their own destiny yet.

[bengalindian]

I think I'm confident with any situation that involves the Chargers NOT making the playoffs. I think that the Chargers can beat the Broncos, unless they choke (a la Miami, Eagles). Either way, the Bengals are in the playoffs, and #2 or #3 seed, Marvin's going to make sure they're ready for whomever they play.

[spazz70]

here is my guess

1-Colts

2-WHO-DEY

3-Broncos

4-Patsies

5-Jags

6-Pitt

Wild Card

Pitt beats Broncos

Jags beats Pats

Colts beats Jags

WHO-DEY beats Pitt

WHO-DEY beats Colts

Super Bowl

We beat anyone, we get this far who gonna beat us???

[DontPushMe]

I actually think this scenario will occur (because Jax has been playing like A$$)

I think that should go up for boneheaded post of the year. You do realize that Jacksonville is playing Houston and Tennessee for their final 2 games, don't you?

Besides, San Diego is playing in KC. I would hate to be SD going into one of the most hated stadiums for visiting teams after KC let 2 games slip away. Sure SD beat Indy, but what are the chances of them beating KC and Denver?

You sound scared.

Jacksonville could very easily lose to Tenessee, if they beat the Texans this week, they will have the #5 spot locked up, and could rest their starters, considering how they've been playing lately, and them resting their starters vs Tenn, id definitly be worried if i were a Pitt fan.

Your best shot is SD dropping one game, but if they are playing for a playoff spot I doubt it happens.

Man the chargers could really help us out, think about it, if they win their next 2, it does this for us:

1. Eliminates KC, which would make our game vs them in week 17 easier.

2. Gives us the chance to beat KC week 17 for the #2 seed.

3. Could eliminate Pitt from the playoffs.

Wouldnt that be sweet? I think im a charger fan for a couple weeks.

[duus]

I actually think this scenario will occur (because Jax has been playing like A$$)

I think that should go up for boneheaded post of the year. You do realize that Jacksonville is playing Houston and Tennessee for their final 2 games, don't you?

Besides, San Diego is playing in KC. I would hate to be SD going into one of the most hated stadiums for visiting teams after KC let 2 games slip away. Sure SD beat Indy, but what are the chances of them beating KC and Denver?

You sound scared.

Jacksonville could very easily lose to Tenessee, if they beat the Texans this week, they will have the #5 spot locked up, and could rest their starters, considering how they've been playing lately, and them resting their starters vs Tenn, id definitly be worried if i were a Pitt fan.

Your best shot is SD dropping one game, but if they are playing for a playoff spot I doubt it happens.

Man the chargers could really help us out, think about it, if they win their next 2, it does this for us:

1. Eliminates KC, which would make our game vs them in week 17 easier.

2. Gives us the chance to beat KC week 17 for the #2 seed.

3. Could eliminate Pitt from the playoffs.

Wouldnt that be sweet? I think im a charger fan for a couple weeks.

I'm with you 100% on this one! Go Chargers!

[membengal]

I actually think this scenario will occur (because Jax has been playing like A$$)

I think that should go up for boneheaded post of the year. You do realize that Jacksonville is playing Houston and Tennessee for their final 2 games, don't you?

Besides, San Diego is playing in KC. I would hate to be SD going into one of the most hated stadiums for visiting teams after KC let 2 games slip away. Sure SD beat Indy, but what are the chances of them beating KC and Denver?

You sound scared.

Jacksonville could very easily lose to Tenessee, if they beat the Texans this week, they will have the #5 spot locked up, and could rest their starters, considering how they've been playing lately, and them resting their starters vs Tenn, id definitly be worried if i were a Pitt fan.

Your best shot is SD dropping one game, but if they are playing for a playoff spot I doubt it happens.

Man the chargers could really help us out, think about it, if they win their next 2, it does this for us:

1. Eliminates KC, which would make our game vs them in week 17 easier.

2. Gives us the chance to beat KC week 17 for the #2 seed.

3. Could eliminate Pitt from the playoffs.

Wouldnt that be sweet? I think im a charger fan for a couple weeks.

Yup, yup, yup, I have come to same conclusion as you, dpm. Clearly a Charger fan this and next weekend.

[alleycat]

Bad Playoff Scenario for us:

Denver drops a game and we go into KC and play hard but actually lose. Then we don't get the bye and don't take off a game to rest going into the wildcard game.

Of course, Denver could always lose two